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Jordan Katz 2018 NFL Prediction Mock Draft 2.0: Final

Posted on April 23, 2018 Updated on April 25, 2018

This is my final prediction mock draft of 2018. As stated in my previous edition, this is the more conventional mock draft where I attempt to get every selection correct. This draft is incredibly tough to predict because the number one selection is still up in the air. The draft plays out very differently if Josh Allen is selected first instead of Sam Darnold, or vice versa.

This draft is also one giant guessing game after pick six or seven because of the amount of quarterbacks that could go in round one. We could see six quarterbacks go in the first round on Thursday night. Six! So this is my best attempt at reading through the rumors that are truth and the ones that are smoke screens. Hopefully I do better than last year.

Editor’s note: An asterisk next to a team name means that the pick was traded in this draft. If there’s no asterisk, that means the pick was traded before this “draft,” got underway.

ROUND ONE

1) Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, QB USC- Darnold and Josh Allen are supposedly neck and neck in “Browns land.” When a decision is this close, sometimes it’s the smallest detail that can separate two players in the eyes of a front office.

Darnold showed up at 7 AM to help out his USC teammates at their pro day when he didn’t have to be there. Something as small as being there for your teammates after the season has ended could be what separates him from Josh Allen for GM John Dorsey.

2) New York Giants: Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State- I think teams are going to dare the Giants to pick a quarterback come draft night. I’m not sure anyone in the NFL believes that David Gettleman would take a QB not named Sam Darnold. The Giants select the best player available, and hope he can shine behind a weak offensive line.

Editor’s Note: This is where the draft could be completely different if Josh Allen goes first. Now there’s legitimate concern among the teams that need a quarterback in the middle of round one that their guy may not be there. If Josh Allen goes first, then the Giants are in the power position of the draft once again.

3) New York Jets via Indianapolis Colts: Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma- “Broadway Baker,” has been my prediction for the Jets from day one. He’s a leader in the locker room, the fans will love him, and he’s tailor-made for a west coast system.

4) *Buffalo Bills from Cleveland Browns via Houston Texans: Josh Allen, QB Wyoming- Originally I wrote that the Giants held the keys to this draft, because they could tempt teams to move up by teasing a quarterback at the second selection. However, David Gettleman has done such a poor job with his pre-draft strategy. By not at least teasing a quarterback could be their pick, they have zero leverage if Darnold is off the board.

This means that, once again, the Cleveland Browns control the draft. The Browns would love to trade down from four. Therefore, whatever team trades up could get their franchise quarterback at a discounted price because the Browns already have their QB.

Buffalo will still have to give both first rounders this year to trade up, but they should be able to hold on to any future assets. That would not be the case if they went up to where the Giants pick.

5) *Arizona Cardinals via Denver Broncos: Josh Rosen, QB UCLA- This draft is going to be wacky because of the quarterbacks. Denver seems like they’re all in on Allen and Mayfield. If they can’t get one of those two, I could see a scenario where Denver uses Rosen to trade back and acquire assets. Case Keenum has proved that he can be the game manager Denver is looking for in the immediate future.

Arizona trades up to land their franchise quarterback.

6) Indianapolis Colts via New York Jets: Bradley Chubb, EDGE NC State- If one of the top four quarterbacks is on the board at six, Indianapolis is trading down to the highest bidder. If all the quarterbacks are gone, they take Bradley Chubb or Saquon Barkley. It’s as simple as that.

7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tremaine Edmunds, EDGE/OLB Virginia Tech- This pick is a little out of the box because Tampa Bay needs safeties and the top two guys are available. However, Tampa Bay also needs a strong side linebacker, and teams love Tremaine Edmunds. The Bucs could go for a versatile front seven player in round one because the secondary depth in this class is excellent.

8) Chicago Bears: Quenton Nelson, OG Notre Dame- To put this simply, I can’t see the best player in the draft making it past the Bears at eight.

9) San Francisco 49ers: Roquan Smith, OLB/ILB Georgia- If I were a betting man, and most reading this article are well aware that I am, I would say the Niners scheduling a private workout with Smith shortly after finding out about Reuben Foster’s off the field issues is not a coincidence.

10) *Green Bay Packers via Oakland Raiders: Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State- Oakland is a team that could surprise people by trading down a few spots. They have a ton of defensive needs, as well as needs along the offensive line.

Green Bay slides up a few spots to get a defensive game changer in the secondary.

11) Miami Dolphins: Derwin James, FS/SS Florida State- The Dolphins are in a precarious draft situation at 11. There’s plenty of guys they can use as immediate contributors, but they could also slide down and take Lamar Jackson in the middle of round one. I think the safer option is to select BPA at 11, then try to trade up for Jackson later on.

12) Cleveland Browns from Buffalo Bills via Cincinnati Bengals: Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/FS/SS Alabama- This may look like a steal at the 12th pick, but I think Fitzpatrick could slide a bit on draft day. Someone at the top has to fall based on the amount of quarterbacks that will go early on. This is also part of the allure for the Browns to trade out of the fourth pick.

13) Washington Redskins: Vita Vea, DT/NT Washington- Vea is a lock to go in the first 15-20 picks, it’s just a matter of where. There are a number of teams that have interest in him and consider him a very talented prospect. Washington is the best bet to take Vea no matter what else is on the board.

14) *Oakland Raiders via Green Bay Packers: Connor Williams, OT/OG Texas- I’m completely selling the Connor Williams nose dive the NFL Draft media is preaching. I can’t imagine a world where the consensus top tackle in the draft for six months just suddenly falls out of the first round. Oakland slides down and takes an athletic offensive tackle that starred throughout his collegiate career at Texas.

15) *Denver Broncos via Arizona Cardinals: Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame- Denver needs to bolster its offensive line as soon as possible. McGlinchey is considered by many to be the best tackle in the draft. Teasing a quarterback at five in order to slide down and select McGlinchey is a very plausible draft scenario for the Broncos.

16) *Minnesota Vikings via Baltimore Ravens: Will Hernandez, OG UTEP- Minnesota is in a very good spot to trade up in this draft. Most of their important pieces are locked up for the next few years, and they have the cap room to sign the ones that aren’t (Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter are the most important two). Their biggest team need is at left guard, and this is the point in the draft where offensive line will start flying off the board.

17) Los Angeles Chargers: Leighton Vander Esch, ILB Boise State- Vander Esch commands the middle of the field extremely well. He’s a sound tackler and he’s terrific in off ball coverage. I expect Vander Esch to go higher than many expect on draft day because of his smarts and his athleticism.

18) Seattle Seahawks: Isaiah Oliver, CB Colorado- The Seahawks need a number one cornerback after getting rid of almost all of their secondary depth this offseason. Oliver has the length that Seattle looks for in their cornerbacks. He also excels in cover three, a defense that Seattle uses often.

19) Dallas Cowboys: Courtland Sutton, WR SMU- It’s anyone’s guess as to who WR1 will be on draft night. Many people will argue Calvin Ridley, but Sutton has a great chance to hear his name called first. Dallas is the first team on the board that is desperate for a wide receiver, particularly a big body receiver. I think Sutton will be viewed as someone who fits better with what Dallas is looking for at this pick.

20) Detroit Lions: Marcus Davenport, EDGE UTSA- Initially I thought that Davenport would go in the top 15 because someone would trade up. However, because quarterbacks are going to go so high in this draft, players are bound to fall regardless of their talent. Detroit lucks out by getting the clear cut number two edge rusher in this draft (by media standards).

21) Cincinnati Bengals via Buffalo Bills: Frank Ragnow, OG/C Arkansas- Ragnow is now considered to be the top center in the draft and many feel he will hear his name called in round one. Cincinnati needs just about everything on their offensive line. At the top of that list is a starting Center. 

22) *Cleveland Browns via Buffalo Bills: Harold Landry, EDGE Boston College- I don’t have a first round grade on Landry, but he will hear his name called Thursday night. If Cleveland wants a pass rusher and would like to trade out of the fourth selection, they better be comfortable with Landry or Davenport. Passing on Bradley Chubb for one of those two is a major gamble by the front office.

23) *Miami Dolphins from New England Patriots via Los Angeles Rams: Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville- The Patriots have been teasing a quarterback for weeks. They’ve met with everyone from Mason Rudolph, to Lamar Jackson, to second tier guys like Kyle Lauletta. It is presumed that Bill Belichick is going to draft another potential successor to Tom Brady this year.

Despite all the evidence, I don’t buy it at this pick. I think this is a classic “draft con,” by Belichick, with the goal of tempting other teams to trade up. Even if they slide out of round one, New England would still haul multiple top 100 picks in this draft.

Miami trades up for the heir to Ryan Tannehill’s throne, but New England wins this move. Not only do they get more draft picks, but they’ve inadvertently familiarize themselves with a quarterback they’ll face twice a year for the near future.

24) Carolina Panthers: Justin Reid, FS Stanford- Carolina needs to address secondary with this first pick. They have needs at every spot in the defensive backfield. Reid’s instincts and ball skills will allow him to go higher on draft day than some may be projecting. His upside is why the Panthers go for a safety rather than a cornerback in round one.

25) Tennessee Titans: Isaiah Wynn, OG Georgia- Wynn is a bit of a wildcard in this draft. His athleticism as well as his ability to dominate in the run game could make him a top 20 pick. He could also fall into the 30-40 range because there is an abundance of interior offensive line talent in this draft.

If he’s on the board for Tennessee, a team that needs to sure up the middle of their o-line, I would expect him to be the selection.

26) Atlanta Falcons: Da’Ron Payne, DT Alabama- Taven Bryan may be the “sexy pick,” here because of his athleticism, but Dan Quinn likes guys that compete. Payne comes from a culture of competition at Alabama. He’s also very athletic in his own right.

27) New Orleans Saints: Mike Hughes, CB UCF- I’m not sure why everyone has New Orleans rushing to pick a pass catcher in round one. They’re in a perfect situation to take the best player available because of their limited needs. Hughes will be a nickel corner from day one, and he should excel there for a long time.

28) Pittsburgh Steelers: Sony Michel, RB Georgia- My prediction for the Steelers on draft day is simple. If the Steelers are committed to Le’Veon Bell long term, they will not draft a running back. If they’re not, then they will select Michel or Derrius Guice at 28.

29) Jacksonville Jaguars: DJ Moore, WR Maryland- For those scoring at home, Moore going here means Calvin Ridley falls out of the first round. To be honest, I’m not sure why Ridley in round one is a popular pick amongst analyst. His athleticism tests proved that he is a glorified slot receiver at the next level. To me, the NFL as a whole values slot receivers lower than most media experts.

Moore on the other hand tested through the roof during the draft process. He proved he’s a multidimensional receiver. Moore goes to Jacksonville, Ridley falls to day two.

30) *Baltimore Ravens via Minnesota Vikings: Dallas Goedert, TE South Dakota State- Baltimore is being linked to almost every tight end in this draft. If they’re truly serious about taking a game changer in the middle of the field, then trading back in round one and selecting Goedert makes a lot of sense.

31) New England Patriots: Kolton Miller, OT UCLA- In my previous predictions mock draft I had the Patriots going with Brian O’Neill because of his athleticism. The technique wasn’t a huge concern for me because Dante Scarnecchia is the guru when it comes to offensive line technique.

Miller is considered to be a better technical version of O’Neill, and he’s still a strong athlete in his own right. This pick would be considered a home run by many.

32) Philadelphia Eagles: Brian O’Neill, OT Pittsburgh- With just one pick in the first three rounds, Philadelphia needs to hit on this pick.

Contrary to what people may think, they don’t have to nab a day one starter here. O’Neill is an athletic freak and can sit behind Jason Peters for a year while he develops technique. If O’Neill turned into a left tackle of the future, that qualifies as hitting on this draft pick.

TRADES IN ROUND ONE

1) Buffalo Bills trade the #12, #22 and the #65 to the Cleveland Browns for the #4.

2) Arizona Cardinals trade the #15, #47 and a 2019 1st to the Denver Broncos for the #5 and the #71.

3) Green Bay Packers trade the #14 and the #76 to the Oakland Raiders for the #10 and the #212.

4) Minnesota Vikings trade the #30, #62 and a 2019 3nd round pick to the Baltimore Ravens for the #16 and a 2019 5th round pick.

5) Miami Dolphins trade the #42, #73 and a 2019 2nd round pick to the New England Patriots for the #23 and the #198.

ROUND TWO

33) Cleveland Browns: Joshua Jackson, CB Iowa- Cleveland made some nice additions in their secondary this offseason, yet they still lack a true number one cornerback. Jackson’s length and ball skills could help him be a star at the next level.

Editor’s Note: I don’t think grabbing Fitzpatrick at 12 deters the Browns from drafting multiple secondary pieces.

34) New York Giants: Jaire Alexander, CB Louisville- Both Jackson and Alexander fell to round two, but that’s the QB effect. Alexander is not only insurance for Eli Apple, but he’s also a starting nickel corner from day one.

35) Cleveland Browns via Indianapolis Colts: Ronald Jones II, RB USC- Earlier I mentioned that selecting Minkah Fitzpatrick won’t deter the Browns from taking a cornerback that falls. The same applies for their signing of Carlos Hyde. If a running back falls, Cleveland could easily take him.

36) Indianapolis Colts: Taven Bryan, DL Florida- Bryan’s athleticism and relentless pass rushing ability is something the Colts desperately need along their front four.

37) Indianapolis Colts via New York Jets: Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama- If Ridley does in fact slide out of round one, I can’t see him making it past the Colts. Indianapolis needs a number two wide receiver.

38) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ronnie Harrison, SS Alabama- The Bucs needs safety help in the worst way. Harrison provides an immediate jolt to the backend of the Bucs defense.

39) Chicago Bears: Gereon Christian, OT/OG Louisville- Doubling up on offensive line is a smart play by Chicago because they lack depth at the position.

40) Denver Broncos: Derrius Guice, RB LSU- Denver needs a starting running back after releasing CJ Anderson.

41) Oakland Raiders: Rashaan Evans, OLB/ILB Alabama- Evans can be a signal caller in the middle and he also allows the Raiders to play Tahir Whitehead on the weakside.

42) *New England Patriots via Miami Dolphins: Mike Gesicki, TE Penn State- Gesicki is an athletic tight end that runs terrific route runner and he catches everything thrown his way. Seems like a guy Tom Brady would love to throw to.

43) New England Patriots via San Francisco 49ers: Sam Hubbard, EDGE Ohio State- New England needs a pass rush next year if they want to be in the winner’s circle come February. Hubbard’s ability to stay disciplined is why Belichick selects him over a few more athletically gifted edge rushers.

44) Washington Redskins: Billy Price, C/OG Ohio State- One of the underrated additions/subtractions this offseason was Spencer Long joining the New York Jets and leaving Washington. Price would be an excellent choice in round two to replace Long.

45) Green Bay Packers: Braden Smith, OG Auburn- Smith is a physical run blocker with quick feet and he plays with an edge. The Packers need that physicality up front.

46) Cincinnati Bengals: Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State- For the record, I have zero basis for this selection. This is strictly a gut feeling that Cincinnati will look for a future replacement for Andy Dalton in this draft. Dalton has team options in the next two years, making this is a great time to attempt to find a new quarterback.

47) *Denver Broncos via Arizona Cardinals: Donte Jackson, CB LSU- I think the Broncos draft will be centered around the idea that their window is smaller than people think. With that in mind, a nickel corner is at the top of the list in terms of team needs.

48) Los Angeles Chargers: DeShon Elliott, FS Texas- The Chargers have yet to replace the loss of Eric Weddle a few offseasons ago. Elliott would do just that.

49) Indianapolis Colts from New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks: Malik Jefferson, ILB Texas- Indianapolis continues to get immediate contributors in this draft. Jefferson will be the signal call in the middle of their 4-3 defense from day one.

50) Dallas Cowboys: Maurice “Mo” Hurst, DT Michigan- I believe someone will take a chance on Hurst during round two. So why not Dallas? They took a chance on Jaylon Smith a few drafts ago and that looks terrific right now. If they’re right on Hurst, they could have a steal.

51) Detroit Lions: Tyrell Crosby, OT/OG Oregon- The Lions need a starting left guard, but they also just need offensive line depth in general.

52) Baltimore Ravens: James Daniels, C Iowa- Daniels immediately replaces departing free agent Ryan Jensen.

53) Buffalo Bills: Uchenna Nwosu, OLB USC- The Bills could use a rusher from the strong side linebacker position. Lorenzo Alexander is aging and there isn’t a replacement in sight.

54) Kansas City Chiefs: Carlton Davis, CB Auburn- I think the Chiefs would like to trade down if possible. However, with an elite press man corner like Davis on the board, I’m not sure they can afford to do so.

55) Carolina Panthers: Terrell Edmunds, SS Virginia Tech- The Panthers double up on safeties in the first two rounds, grabbing Edmunds to be the traditional in the box strong safety.

56) Buffalo Bills via Los Angeles Rams: Chukwuma Okorafor, OT/OG Western Michigan- Okorafor is raw, but he has shown tremendous progression for someone who picked up football later in his youth.

57) *San Francisco 49ers via Tennessee Titans: Christian Kirk, WR Texas A&M- With the wide receivers falling a bit, the Niners trade up to land someone who should’ve gone higher in this draft. Kirk is the middle of the field, move the chains guy Jimmy Garoppolo needs next season.

58) Atlanta Falcons: Austin Corbett, OG Nevada- Andy Levitre will most likely be playing his final season in Atlanta this year. It would be a good idea for the Falcons to find his replacement in this draft, which has loads of interior offensive line talent.

59) San Francisco 49ers via New Orleans Saints: Duke Dawson, CB Florida- The Niners need some depth in the secondary and they need a true nickel cornerback. Dawson, along with Ahkello Witherspoon and newly acquired Richard Sherman, would be a terrific tandem in the back end.  

60) New York Jets via Pittsburgh Steelers: Josh Sweat, EDGE Florida State- I think the Jets will try to trade back into round two for an edge rusher that falls. It’s a weak class, but Sweat could thrive in Todd Bowles’ defense.

61) Jacksonville Jaguars: Martinas Rankin, OL Mississippi State- Jacksonville’s offensive line took massive strides last year, but they still are looking to acquire immediate depth as well as a future starter at tackle. 

62) *Baltimore Ravens via Minnesota Vikings: Lorenzo Carter, OLB/ILB Georgia- Carter is the kind of player that Ozzie Newsome typically selects. Carter has the athleticism to play off the edge, along with the versatility to kick inside in a 3-4 defense…. supposedly.

63) New England Patriots: Kyle Lauletta, QB Richmond- I think Lauletta has been the Patriots QB of choice from day one. As mentioned earlier, there’s rumors of them selecting a number of different guys at a number of different spots in this draft. My feeling is that Lauletta has been the guy from day one.

64) Cleveland Browns via Philadelphia Eagles: Derrick Nnadi, DT/NT Florida State- With all their picks in this draft, the Browns start taking the best players available. Nnadi starts immediately next to last year’s pick Larry Ogunjobi.

TRADES IN ROUND TWO

1) San Francisco trade the #70, #74 and #128 to the Tennessee Titans for the #57 and #89.

2) New York Jets trade the #72, #107 and #179 to the Pittsburgh Steelers for the #60 and #165.

ROUND THREE

65) Cleveland Browns from Buffalo Bills via Cleveland Browns: Orlando Brown, OT Oklahoma

66) New York Giants: Will Richardson, OT NC State

67) *Dallas Cowboys via Indianapolis Colts: Jessie Bates III, FS Wake Forest

68) Houston Texans: Hayden Hurst, TE South Carolina

69) New York Giants via Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rasheem Green, DE USC

70) *Tennessee Titans via San Francisco 49ers via Chicago Bears: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, OLB/ILB Oklahoma

71) *Arizona Cardinals via Denver Broncos: Harrison Phillips, DL Stanford

72) *Pittsburgh Steelers via New York Jets: Fred Warner, LB BYU

73) *New England Patriots via Miami Dolphins: Isaac Yiadom, DB Boston College

74) *Tennessee Titans via San Francisco 49ers: Anthony Miller, WR Memphis

75) Oakland Raiders: Kerryon Johnson, RB Auburn

76) *Oakland Raiders via Green Bay Packers: Holton Hill, CB Texas

77) *Carolina Panthers via Cincinnati Bengals: Nick Chubb, RB Georgia

78) Kansas City Chiefs via Washington Redskins: Dorance Armstrong, EDGE Kansas

79) Arizona Cardinals: Michael Gallup, WR Colorado State

80) Houston Texans via Seattle Seahawks: Tim Settle, NT Virginia Tech

81) *Indianapolis Colts via Dallas Cowboys: Jamarco Jones, OL Ohio State

82) Detroit Lions: Nathan Shepard, DT Fort Hays State

83) Baltimore Ravens: Breeland Speaks, DE/DT Ole Miss

84) Los Angeles Chargers: Joseph Noteboom, OT/OG TCU

85) *Cincinnati Bengals from Carolina Panthers via Buffalo Bills: Wyatt Teller, OG Virginia Tech

86) Kansas City Chiefs: Mason Cole, OL Michigan

87) Los Angeles Rams: Arden Key, EDGE LSU

88) Carolina Panthers: Ian Thomas, TE Indiana

89) *San Francisco 49ers via Tennessee Titans: Andrew Brown, DE/DT Virginia

90) Atlanta Falcons: Dante Pettis, WR Washington

91) New Orleans Saints: Mark Andrews, TE Oklahoma

92) Pittsburgh Steelers: MJ Stewart, CB North Carolina

93) Jacksonville Jaguars: Josey Jewell, ILB Iowa

94) Minnesota Vikings: PJ Hall, DT Sam Houston State

95) New England Patriots: Genard Avery, LB Memphis

96) Buffalo Bills via Philadelphia Eagles: Equanimeous St. Brown, WR Notre Dame

97) Arizona Cardinals (compensatory): Desmond Harrison, OL West Georgia

98) Houston Texans (compensatory): Tony Adams, OG NC State

99) Denver Broncos (compensatory): DaeSean Hamilton, WR Penn State

100) Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory): Shaquem Griffin, LB UCF

TRADES IN ROUND THREE

1) Dallas Cowboys trade the #81, #116 and a 2019 6th to the Indianapolis Colts for the #67.

2) Carolina Panthers trade the #85 and a 2019 4th to the Cincinnati Bengals for the #77.