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Jordan Katz: Prediction Mock Draft 1.0

Posted on March 21, 2018 Updated on March 21, 2018

Welcome to the first prediction mock draft of 2018. This is the more conventional mock draft where I attempt to get every selection correct. In other words, this is the mock draft where I bash my head against a wall while trying to figure out which rumors have merit and which ones are smoke screens. There will be some massive changes here before the actual draft in late April, but this is what I think each team would do if the draft was tomorrow.

ROUND ONE

1) Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, QB USC- The number one overall pick from five months ago is back in his rightful spot. Having acquired Tyrod Taylor just a few weeks ago, the Browns are no longer forced to start the quarterback they select in this draft. Darnold has the highest upside of any quarterback in the draft, which makes him the ideal choice.

2) Buffalo Bills via New York Giants: Josh Allen, QB Wyoming- It’s going to be a tough sell to Giants fans if the new regime does not select Saquon Barkley at two, but I think it’s the right decision. The opportunity to haul three first round picks doesn’t come around often.

Buffalo comes up to select their quarterback of the future, and the present.

3) New York Jets via Indianapolis Colts: Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma- Speaking of quarterbacks of the future, the Jets gave three second round picks plus their sixth overall selection to get theirs. Gang Green has already met with Mayfield four times, including a private workout. If he’s on the board, the Jets are taking Baker Mayfield.

4) Cleveland Browns via Houston Texans: Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State- Many felt that Saquon Barkley was going to go first overall, and the logic behind that was sound. However, this is the reason it was never going to happen. By taking a quarterback at one, the Browns force the other quarterback needy teams to trade up if they want their guy. This lets Barkley fall to four, and right into the lap of General Manager John Dorsey.

5) Denver Broncos: Josh Rosen, QB UCLA- I think the reason the Jets made the move up to the third selection was to jump the Broncos. The Jets are ensured to land a QB they want, and Denver has to stay put at five and take whatever QB falls. In this case, that quarterback is Rosen.

6) Indianapolis Colts via New York Jets: Bradley Chubb, EDGE NC State- The Colts did a phenomenal job getting the Jets to overpay for the value of the third selection. With four picks in the top 64, the Colts have a ton of draft flexibility. Chubb is not only the best player available, but he’s the best player available at a position of need. Easy pick.

7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/FS/SS Alabama- The Buccaneers need impact defensive players and they’ve met with Fitzpatrick on a number of occasions. This seems like another easy selection.

8) Chicago Bears: Quenton Nelson, OG Notre Dame- Nelson hasn’t been linked to the Bears, but this is too much value to pass on. The Bears offensive line becomes one of the best units in the league with this pick.

9) San Francisco 49ers: Connor Williams, OT/OG Texas- The Niners still need some help along their offensive line. Williams has the athleticism to translate to multiple positions, giving the Niners the versatility to place him wherever they need him.

10) Oakland Raiders: Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State- The Raiders have a lot of options at this pick. Ideally, Connor Williams is on the board to help them rebuild their offensive line. If he’s not, addressing defensive needs is a good way to go. 

11) Miami Dolphins: Vita Vea, DT/NT Washington- I’m not sure how Vea and Jordan Phillips are going to line up next to each other in a 4-3, but the Dolphins don’t appear to be concerned. They met with Vea at the combine and, according to reports, came away impressed. Vea is one of the top five players in the class and incredibly athletic for his size. If Vea goes here and it works, the Dolphins front four becomes one of the best in football.

12) New York Giants from Buffalo Bills via Cincinnati Bengals: Tremaine Edmunds, EDGE/OLB Virginia Tech- By trading down, the Giants are able to acquire three first round picks and select a player that helps them complete their schematic change to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher. Edmunds has the versatility to line up at multiple spots, he has tremendous athleticism, and he still doesn’t turn 20 years old until after the draft!

13) Washington Redskins: Roquan Smith, ILB Georgia- Smith would be a perfect fit in the middle of Washington’s 3-4 defense. Even though Washington hasn’t met with Smith yet, that doesn’t mean that they won’t. Nor does it stop them from taking him if he were to fall into their lap.

14) Green Bay Packers: Derwin James, FS/SS Florida State- The Packers have met with very few prospects thus far, so this is more of an educated guess on my part. Green Bay actually has more roster holes than people may realize, and a big one is in the secondary. After losing Morgan Burnett and Damarious Randall, the Packers have to get some secondary pieces from a strong defensive back class.

15) Arizona Cardinals: Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama- The Cardinals receiving core is a mess. Calvin Ridley is number one on many scouts board at the receiver position, and the gap between him and the next person is considered to be very big. 

16) Detroit Lions via Baltimore Ravens: Marcus Davenport, EDGE UTSA- Detroit has met with Davenport multiple times thus far; he appears to be the guy they trust the most off the edge in this draft.

I think Ozzie Newsome has one more trade down in store for his final draft as general manager. Baltimore is in a good spot to go down a few spots if Ridley goes in front of them.

17) Los Angeles Chargers: Kolton Miller, OT UCLA- Miller is someone who hasn’t been in either of my personal mock drafts (I have a third round grade on him), but he is someone the media and scouts seem to like very much. It wouldn’t shock me if Miller cracked the top ten come April. Los Angeles needs a tackle, so they take advantage of Miller sliding a bit.

18) Pittsburgh Steelers via Seattle Seahawks: Derrius Guice, RB LSU- The Steelers met with Guice at the combine which has led to speculation of Pittsburgh selecting him in round one. Despite using the franchise tag on Le’Veon Bell, it’s no secret that the Steelers are struggling to lock him up long term.

Seattle needs to acquire assets in this draft during this rebuild their attempting to execute. They can use the idea of taking Guice at 18 to tempt the Steelers to come up in order to get their running back of the future.

19) Dallas Cowboys: Isaiah Wynn, OG Georgia- After a phenomenal senior season and a strong last few months, Wynn is going to be a top 20 pick come April. Dallas lost a lot of offensive line depth and still need a starter at left guard. They also met with Wynn at the combine. This seems like a good match at 19.

20) Baltimore Ravens via Detroit Lions: James Daniels, G/C Iowa- Baltimore lost Ryan Jensen in free agency, so they have to find a starting center in this draft. Fortunately for them, this is an incredibly talented interior offensive line group. Baltimore adds a third round pick and takes the center they would have selected at 16.

21) Cincinnati Bengals via Buffalo Bills: Da’Ron Payne, DT Alabama- I know the Bengals like a zero tech playing next to Geno Atkins in their 4-3, but Da’Ron Payne is worth a schematic change. Two athletic defensive tackles would be a matchup problem for opponents. If the Bengals are going to address defensive tackle, maybe a schematic tweak to incorporate the talented Payne is where they should go.

22) New York Giants via Buffalo Bills: Jaire Alexander, CB Louisville- Alexander is considered to be one of the top cover corners from a terrific draft class. After cutting Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the Giants are either going to the season starting Eli Apple and without a nickel cornerback, or addressing both issues with one selection. I know what I would do.

Editor’s Note: The Giants seem content to address their offensive line issues through free agency, that’s why this pick wasn’t a guard or tackle.

23) Los Angeles Rams: Courtland Sutton, WR SMU- The Rams lost two key players this offseason, Robert Quinn and Sammy Watkins. They only have one pick in the first two rounds, so this selection is either a trade or one of those two positions.

Sutton jumped up draft boards after a strong combine, so even though he’s not high on my personal board, this is a logical spot for him.

24) Carolina Panthers: Isaiah Oliver, CB Colorado- After trading Daryl Worley, and Bashaud Breeland failing his physical, the Panthers must get a corner in the first two rounds. Oliver is another strong cover corner that tested well at the combine. 

25) Tennessee Titans: Leighton Vander Esch, ILB Boise State- Vander Esch is a multi-dimensional linebacker that can contribute to an NFL team from day one. Having lost Avery Williamson to the Jets, the Titans need a middle linebacker next to Wesley Woodyard in their 3-4 base defense.

26) Atlanta Falcons: Taven Bryan, DT Florida- Despite the emergence of Grady Jarrett on the interior, the Falcons defensive line still needs some help. Atlanta loves athletes throughout their front seven, and Bryan is one of the best pound for pound athletes in the class. He may not be technically polished yet, but I bet teams will fall in love with his athleticism and draft him highly on draft day.

27) New Orleans Saints: Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville- The Saints signed Drew Brees to a two year extension, but they are still looking for their quarterback of the future. Jackson has a big arm and his strengths as a passer could be very attractive to an offensive minded coach like Sean Payton.

Editor’s Note: The reason the Saints don’t trade out and take Jackson in round two is to get the potential fifth year option on him. If Drew Brees were to retire and Jackson were to inherit the keys to the franchise, they get three years out of Lamar before needing an extension.

28) Seattle Seahawks via Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame- Let’s see how simple I can make this analysis; the Seattle Seahawks need offensive line help.

29) Jacksonville Jaguars: Rashaan Evans, ILB Alabama- I’m not sure about Evans’ fit in a 4-3 defense, but many scouts appear to think he’s a three down linebacker. If that’s the case, he should make the transition to a 4-3 easily. The Jaguars could also kick Telvin Smith inside and play Evans at 4-3 outside linebacker, so this pick gives them some versatility as well.

30) Minnesota Vikings: Will Hernandez, OG UTEP- Minnesota’s offensive line was much improved in 2017, yet it still needs some fine tuning on the interior. Hernandez is a beast in the run game, something the Vikings offense will still lean on even with the addition of Kirk Cousins.

31) New England Patriots: Brian O’Neill, OT Pittsburgh- The Patriots are in an interesting draft position with this first selection. They have a number of team needs, but predicting which one Bill Belichick will value the most is just an impossible task. I think the lack of depth at offensive tackle as well as the loss of Nate Solder means that the Patriots will try to select a tackle at the backend of round one.

O’Neill’s athleticism would be attractive to the Patriots because lineman coach Dante Scarnecchia can teach offensive line technique to the tackling dummies.

32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers via Philadelphia Eagles: Ronald Jones II, RB USC- Philly only has one selection during the first two days of this draft, so they have to trade down here to acquire some assets.

Having missed out on Jerick McKinnon in free agency, the Bucs trade up for Ronald Jones to jump the Giants and Colts, who both need running backs.

Trades In Round One

1) Buffalo Bills trade the #12, #22, #53, a 2019 1st and a 2019 3rd to the New York Giants for the #2 overall pick.

2) Detroit Lions trade the #20 and the #82 to the Baltimore Ravens for the #16 overall pick.

3) Pittsburgh Steelers trade the #28 and the #60 to the Seattle Seahawks for the #18 overall pick.

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade the #38 and the #108 to the Philadelphia Eagles for the #32 overall pick.

Round Two

33) Cleveland Browns: Carlton Davis, CB Auburn

34) New York Giants: Sony Michel, RB Georgia

35) Cleveland Browns via Houston Texans: Tyrell Crosby, OT/OG Oregon

36) Indianapolis Colts: DJ Moore, WR Maryland

37) Indianapolis Colts via New York Jets: Mike Hughes, CB Central Florida

38) Philadelphia Eagles via Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Christian Kirk, WR Texas A&M

39) Chicago Bears: Harold Landry, EDGE Boston College

40) Denver Broncos: Mo Hurst, DE/DT Michigan

41) Oakland Raiders: Martinas Rankin, OT Mississippi State

42) Miami Dolphins: Kerryon Johnson, RB Auburn

43) New England Patriots via San Francisco 49ers: Josh Jackson, CB Iowa

44) Washington Redskins: Billy Price, OG/OC Ohio State

45) Green Bay Packers: Braden Smith, OG Auburn

46) Cincinnati Bengals: Austin Corbett, OL Nevada

47) Arizona Cardinals: Arden Key, EDGE LSU

48) Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Reid, FS Stanford

49) Indianapolis Colts from New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks: Ronnie Harrison, SS Alabama

50) Dallas Cowboys: Dante Pettis, WR Washington

51) Detroit Lions: Donte Jackson, CB LSU

52) Baltimore Ravens: Dallas Goedert, TE South Dakota State

53) New York Giants via Buffalo Bills: Orlando Brown, OT Oklahoma

54) Kansas City Chiefs: MJ Stewart, CB North Carolina

55) Carolina Panthers: Jessie Bates, FS/SS Wake Forest

56) Buffalo Bills via Los Angeles Rams: Malik Jefferson, ILB Texas

57) Tennessee Titans: Genard Avery, LB Memphis

58) Atlanta Falcons: DJ Chark, WR LSU

59) San Francisco 49ers via New Orleans Saints: Josh Sweat, EDGE Florida State

60) Seattle Seahawks via Pittsburgh Steelers: Sam Hubbard, EDGE Ohio State

61) Jacksonville Jaguars: Joseph Noteboom, OT TCU

62) Minnesota Vikings: Harrison Phillips, DL Stanford

63) New England Patriots: Mark Andrews, TE Oklahoma

64) Cleveland Browns via Philadelphia Eagles: Nathan Shepard, DT Fort Wayne State