Shane Ray
I WAS RIGHT, I WAS WRONG
Jordan: Well Mike, we’re 14 weeks through the NFL season, and there have been many rookies that have major impacts in their first season. Both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have looked impressive thus far, and Winston has his Buccaneers in the playoff hunt. Todd Gurley and Amari Cooper have been as good as advertised as well.
Mike: That’s true, but there have also been those rookies that have not lived up to the hype. Vic Beasley has struggled to get consistent pressure on the quarterback, and Trae Waynes has been exposed in coverage for most of the season.
Mike (Cont.): Many websites show their evaluations of draft classes in the form of in-season letter grades or how they would change the draft, knowing what we know now. However, we decided to give you something a little different. Our philosophy at DraftStock.net is that our mock drafts are more along the lines of how we view players, and how they would fit with teams. That’s how we decide who should go where.
Jordan: With that in mind, Mike and I have decided to do our first annual, “I was right, I was wrong,” article. We will evaluate our views of the 2015 draft class and tell you which we think we were right on (based on their play), which we think we were wrong on, and which picks still need more time to evaluate. We think it’s also a good measuring stick for us to see how we did in terms of the information and predictions we presented to you, something other websites don’t do.
WE WERE RIGHT
1) The Entire Quarterback Class (Mike)- We both said throughout the entire draft process that not only were there two quarterbacks worth taking, but there were only two quarterbacks worthy of starting in the NFL in their first seasons. Jordan and I also were not in the group that questioned Winston’s character, or Mariota’s ability to translate. So far, both statements hold true.
2) Amari Cooper over Kevin White (Jordan)– Okay, this one is a little unfair because of White’s injury. It’s also unfair because I debated White over Cooper for about six weeks.
However, there were plenty that chose White as the top wide out in the class, and I’m willing to declare that wrong. Cooper looks like he will be one of the top receivers in the game for a long time, while White has an uphill battle to climb after the setbacks he has had this season.
3) Todd Gurley (Mike)- While we didn’t have Gurley going top 10, we both had Gurley top 10 on our big boards, and I had him top three. I think this one speaks for itself.
WE WERE WRONG
1) Vic Beasley (Jordan)- First off, we both feel that the jury is still out on Beasley. The Falcons front four is dreadful, and their entire defense not named Desmond Trufant have been inconsistent all season.
Having said that, we both felt Beasley’s impact would be immediately felt in the NFL, and that isn’t the case right now.
2) Shane Ray (Mike)- Ray hasn’t gotten a lot of playing time, but when he’s been in he’s shown why he was highly touted coming out of Missouri. While you could chalk that up to him playing opposite Von Miller, Jordan and I both felt he wasn’t deserving of a top 50 selection, a statement that isn’t true at this moment.
3) Eli Harold (Jordan)- This is probably our biggest whiff, because we have no reasons as to why Harold hasn’t produced yet. He’s not on a good team, so he should’ve seen more playing time by now. We also had him as a high-end first rounder, when, in reality, he fell to the third and has been relegated to special teams. Oops.
I WAS RIGHT (Mike)
1) Andrus Peat- Peat was a popular first round selection by many. He had the size and build of a strong right tackle, and played in a pro style system at Stanford. However, he appeared to have leverage issues on tape and didn’t have the greatest footwork. Going to New Orleans was probably not the best fit for him, but nevertheless, he’s struggled thus far.
2) Ronald Darby- Perhaps my best call from last year’s draft, Darby has shined from day one in Rex Ryan’s defense. I thought his man coverage skills made him one of the top corners in the draft. He also plays with an edge, something that all the shutdown corners possess. Buffalo appears to be set in the secondary for a while.
3) Henry Anderson- Anderson was incredibly productive until his ACL tear, which puts him near the top of my good calls. I had him as a high second round grade, and he has turned out to be one of the better day two selections.
I WAS WRONG (Mike)
1) Derron Smith- When you have a safety with a high second round grade and he doesn’t go in the first three rounds, you’re not off to a good start. When he falls to the sixth round and hasn’t done anything up to this point, it’s safe to call him a miss.
2) TJ Clemmings- Clemmings draft stock dropped due to an injury, and is development has been stunted by injuries as well. So while he may progress into the productive right tackle that Jordan and I thought he would be, right now he’s struggling with the transition.
3) Dorial Green-Beckham- DGB has shown every reason why his transition would be difficult into the NFL. His routes aren’t clean, he drops a fair amount of passes, and he’s struggling to get separation.
Now he may turn into a great free lance receiver one day, like Plaxico Burress was.
Unfortunately, I had him top 10 on my big board which doesn’t look good right now.
I WAS RIGHT (Jordan)
1) Stephone Anthony- My best call of the 2015 draft was having Stephone Anthony as one of my top players long before he was on the radar of other mock draft experts. Anthony was top 15 on my big board because of his playmaking ability at inside linebacker. He has been the lone bright spot on the Saints defense this season.
2) La’el Collins- I neglected all of Collins’ “character issues,” during draft time and not only had him with a top 40 player grade, but kept him in my first round. The Cowboys offensive line has become even more polish with the addition of Collins, even during a tumultuous season.
3) Tyler Lockett- Lockett was one of my fantasy football sleepers in 2015 for the same reasons that he was one of my draft day sleepers. He has dynamic speed, play-making ability with the ball in his hands, and he’s a better route runner than people thought. His season started off slow, but over the last month he has shown game changing ability.
I WAS WRONG (Jordan)
1) Jaelen Strong and Nelson Agholor- I grouped these players together because I think both the Texans and the Eagles have not used either player properly thus far, particularly Agholor.
However, both have struggled to see playing time, and Strong had troubles learning the playbook early on, which was well documented in “Hard Knocks.
Only time will tell whether they were busts, or just struggled to transition to the NFL
2) Landon Collins- Landon Collins has a bad case of the Calvin Pryor. The Jets tried playing Pryor at free safety last season, and it failed miserably. The Giants have tried to play Collins at free safety thus far, and it hasn’t worked.
Pryor moved from free safety to strong safety this year, and has been a key piece in the Jets secondary this season. Collins should see the same move next season. If he doesn’t, this pick is sure to be a bust.
3) DJ Humphries- I didn’t have Humphries as a first rounder like most, but I did think he would be a solid right tackle in the NFL.
However, he looked so dreadful in the preseason that he hasn’t dressed for a game the entire season. I’m willing to call this a whiff.
Jordan Katz NFL Mock Draft 4.0- Final Mock Draft (3 Rounds)
The NFL Draft is upon us, which means it’s time for one final mock draft from yours truly. Unlike most mock draft analysts, I’m not going to overreact to things teams are reporting to try to “be right.” This mock draft is more about my opinion of what teams should do based on the way the draft fell in front of them. It’s also based on team needs as well as my own evaluation of player.
To sum up, this is not your average mock draft around this time of year. I am giving you the selections and trades I would make if I were running the draft for all 32 teams. Also, I provided a little less analysis in this mock draft, because most of my analysis of players is well documented by now.
Round One
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jameis Winston, QB Florida State- Eat. Sleep. Draft Jameis Winston. Repeat.
2) Tennessee Titans- Leonard Williams, DT Southern California- I don’t think the Titans will get anyone to trade with them, because I don’t think they genuinely want Marcus Mariota. Teams can dare Tennessee to take Mariota, rather than “giving the farm,” to move up.
3) New York Jets via Jacksonville Jaguars- Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon- Tennessee not trading down puts Jacksonville in a perfect position to do so. In terms of the Jets moving up, I still believe the Jets will win the Mariota sweepstakes.
4) Oakland Raiders- Amari Cooper, WR Alabama- After four months of evaluations, Cooper over Kevin White is my final answer.
5) Cleveland Browns via Washington Redskins- Kevin White, WR West Virginia- Washington wants to trade down, and Cleveland needs a number one wide receiver. This seems like a perfect match.
6) Jacksonville Jaguars via New York Jets- Dante Fowler Jr., DE Florida- Where does Jacksonville sign for this draft outcome? The Jags manage to land Fowler, despite trading down.
7) New Orleans Saints via Chicago Bears- Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson- I think this is an out of the box trade that could happen on Thursday. New Orleans has an extra first rounder, so they can afford to give a couple of later picks to move up and get an impact defensive player.
8) Atlanta Falcons- Alvin “Bud” Dupree, DE/OLB Kentucky- Bud Dupree is a great fit, but I would imagine it would be difficult for Thomas Dimitroff and company to watch their NFC South rival trade up past them and take Beasley.
9) New York Giants- Brandon Scherff, OG Iowa- The Giants drafting a first round offensive lineman with versatility and high character? Oh, unknowable universe.
10) St. Louis Rams- DeVante Parker, WR Louisville- The Rams desperately need a top tier wide receiver for newly acquired quarterback Nick Foles.
11) Minnesota Vikings- Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State- The Vikings could go a number of different directions on draft day, but based on the way this draft played out (Scherff and Parker off the board), Waynes seems like the obvious pick.
12) Washington Redskins via Cleveland Browns- Eli Harold, OLB Virginia- The Redskins could have gone edge rusher at the five, but I think they recognize the need to get more picks in the early portions of this draft.
13) Chicago Bears via New Orleans Saints- Jordan Phillips, NT Oklahoma- This is great value for the Bears. They trade down, grab an extra pick, and get an impactful nose tackle.
14) Miami Dolphins- Shaq Thompson, OLB Washington- This may be a bit of a luxury pick, but it’s a perfect fit. Thompson’s coverage ability will take pressure off the rest of the linebacking core.
15) San Francisco 49ers- Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA- The 49ers have a lot of needs, but after losing Pat Willis and Chris Borland, inside linebacker is a must early in this draft.
16) Houston Texans- Marcus Peters, CB Washington- Jonathan Joseph is looking more and more like a cap casualty cut next year, which means the Texans need his replacement now.
17) San Diego Chargers- Danny Shelton, NT Washington- The Chargers need a nose tackle above everything else. With Shelton on the board, I suspect they’ll race to the podium in this scenario.
18) Kansas City Chiefs- T.J. Clemmings, OT Pittsburgh- Eric Fisher doesn’t have the support of management in Kansas City, which means they could draft the best tackle on the board at the 18. In this scenario, that’s Clemmings.
19) Washington Redskins via Cleveland Browns from Buffalo Bills- Stephone Anthony, ILB Clemson- Stephone Anthony is one of my favorite players in the draft. He’s a well-rounded inside linebacker, something the Redskins definitely need. Anthony will improve the middle of the Redskins front seven.
20) Philadelphia Eagles- Landon Collins, SS Alabama- The Eagles need any kind of secondary help they can get.
21) Cincinnati Bengals- Eddie Goldman, DT/NT Florida State- Domata Peko struggled last season. Adding an impact player next to Geno Atkins could make this the best front four in the league.
22) Pittsburgh Steelers- Byron Jones, CB Connecticut- The Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t selected a first round cornerback since 1997. It’s time to change that.
23) Detroit Lions- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA- With this pick, the Lions would have Odighizuwa opposite Ziggy Ansah and next to Haloti Ngata. That’s one heck of a front four.
24) Arizona Cardinals- Malcom Brown, NT Texas- Malcom Brown has the versatility to play a 3-4 defensive end and a 3-4 nose tackle. His ability to play multiple techniques in different schemes will make him an attractive pick on draft day.
25) Carolina Panthers- Andrus Peat, OT Stanford- I think many are overthinking this pick for the Panthers. Yes, they signed Michael Oher. However, they still need a left tackle.
26) Baltimore Ravens- Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State- Despite Joe Flacco’s reported trust in his receivers, I doubt a great football mind like Ozzie Newsome is going to feel the same way.
27) Dallas Cowboys- Todd Gurley, RB Georgia- Even though I have a sneaky suspicion Gurley goes higher than this, I can’t put a running back higher than the 20th overall in the modern NFL.
28) Oakland Raiders via Denver Broncos- Preston Smith, DE Mississippi State- Preston Smith has great versatility, something Oakland has lacked in their front four for a long time.
29) Indianapolis Colts- Carl Davis, NT Iowa- By virtue of a glaring need I have Carl Davis here. I personally have Davis at a second round grade, but he has a lot of upside.
30) Green Bay Packers- Arik Armstead, DE Oregon- Armstead is arguably the biggest risk/reward pick in the draft. Green Bay can afford to take the risk.
31) New Orleans Saints via Seattle Seahawks- Jake Fisher, OT/OG Oregon– After losing Ben Grubbs, guard is a must in this draft for the Saints. While I think Fisher is a fine tackle, he could be a terrific left guard in the Saints offense.
32) Minnesota Vikings via New England Patriots- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma- New England may shock people on draft day and try to move up, but the one thing I think is certain is that they don’t select at the 32nd overall.
In terms of the trade from the Vikings perspective, I don’t think Mike Zimmer will fear DGB’s character issues. He’s a no nonsense coach, and sometimes that’s exactly what a guy with “character issues,” needs.
Trades
– New York Jets trade the #6 and the #37 to the Jacksonville Jaguars for the #3
– Cleveland Browns trade the #12 and the #19 to the Washington Redskins for the #5 and the #69
– New Orleans Saints trade the #13 and the #44 to the Chicago Bears for the #7
– Oakland Raiders trade the #35 and the #99 to the Denver Broncos for the #28.
– Minnesota Vikings trade the #45 and the #76 to the New England Patriots for the #32 and the #131
Round Two
33) Tennessee Titans- D.J Humphries, OT Florida
34) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Nate Orchard, DE Utah
35) Denver Broncos via Oakland Raiders- Ty Sambrailo, OG Colorado State
36) Jacksonville Jaguars- Cedric Ogbuehi, OT Texas A&M
37) Jacksonville Jaguars via New York Jets- Duke Johnson, RB Miami Florida
38) Washington Redskins- Ali Marpet, OG Hobart
39) Chicago Bears- Nelson Agholor, WR Southern California
40) New York Giants- Cameron Erving, C Florida State
41) St. Louis Rams- La’El Collins, OT/OG LSU
42) Atlanta Falcons- Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin
43) Cleveland Browns- Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
44) Chicago Bears via New Orleans Saints- Ereck Flowers, OT Miami Florida
45) New England Patriots via Minnesota Vikings- Kevin Johnson, CB Wake Forest
46) San Francisco 49ers- Ronald Darby, CB Florida State
47) Miami Dolphins- Quentin Rollins, CB Miami (Ohio)
48) San Diego Chargers- Tevin Coleman, RB Indiana
49) Kansas City Chiefs- Rashad Greene, WR Florida State
50) Buffalo Bills- Benadrick McKinney, ILB Mississippi State
51) New England Patriots via Houston Texans- Laken Tomlinson, OG Duke
52) Philadelphia Eagles- Breshad Perriman, WR UCF
53) Carolina Panthers via Cincinnati Bengals- Devin Smith, WR Ohio State
54) Detroit Lions- Jay Ajayi, RB Boise State
55) Arizona Cardinals- Danielle Hunter, OLB LSU
56) Pittsburgh Steelers- Randy Gregory, OLB Nebraska
57) Cincinnati Bengals via Carolina Panthers- A.J Cann, OG South Carolina
58) Baltimore Ravens- Mario Edwards Jr., DE Florida State
59) Denver Broncos- Xavier Cooper, DT Washington State
60) Jacksonville Jaguars via Dallas Cowboys- Phillip Dorsett, WR Miami Florida
61) Indianapolis Colts- Damarious Randall, FS Arizona State
62) New York Giants via Green Bay Packers- Derron Smith, FS Fresno State
63) Seattle Seahawks- Michael Bennett, DT Ohio State
64) Houston Texans via New England Patriots- Cody Prewitt, FS Ole Miss
Trades in Round Two
– New England Patriots trade the #64 and the #96 to the Houston Texans for the #51
– Carolina Panthers trade the #57 and a 2016 5th round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals for the #53.
– Jacksonville Jaguars trade the #67, #139 and a 2016 7th round pick to the Dallas Cowboys for the #60.
– New York Giants trade the #74 and the #108 to the Green Bay Packers for the #62 and the #166
Round Three
65) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Anthony Harris, SS Virginia
66) Tennessee Titans- Shane Ray, OLB Missouri
67) Dallas Cowboys via Jacksonville Jaguars- Gabe Wright, DT/NT Auburn
68) Oakland Raiders- David Cobb, RB Minnesota
69) Cleveland Browns via Washington Redskins- Grady Jarrett, DT/NT Clemson
70) New York Jets- Tyler Lockett, WR Kansas State
71) Chicago Bears- Gerod Holliman, FS Louisville
72) St. Louis Rams- Rob Havenstein, OT Wisconsin
73) Atlanta Falcons- Clive Walford, TE Miami Florida
74) Green Bay Packers via New York Giants- Hau’oli Kikaha, OLB Washington
75) New Orleans Saints- Garrett Grayson, QB Colorado State
76) New England Patriots via Minnesota Vikings- Justin Hardy, WR East Carolina
77) Cleveland Browns- Donovan Smith, OG Penn State
78) New Orleans Saints via Miami Dolphins- Josh Harper, WR Fresno State
79) San Francisco 49ers- Lorenzo Mauldin, OLB Lousiville
80) Kansas City Chiefs- Hroniss Grassu, C Oregon
81) Buffalo Bills- Brett Hundley, QB UCLA
82) Houston Texans- Paul Dawson, ILB TCU
83) San Diego Chargers- Trey Flowers, DE/OLB Arkansas
84) Philadelphia Eagles- Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB Oregon
85) Cincinnati Bengals- Jake Ryan, OLB Michigan
86) Arizona Cardinals- David Johnson, RB Northern Iowa
87) Pittsburgh Steelers- Jaquiski Tartt, SS Samford
88) Detroit Lions- Kevin White, CB TCU
89) Carolina Panthers- Za’Darius Smith, DE Kentucky
90) Baltimore Ravens- Steven Nelson, CB Oregon State
91) Dallas Cowboys- Chris Hackett, S TCU
92) Denver Broncos- Eric Rowe, CB/S Utah
93) Indianapolis Colts- Charles Gaines, CB Louisville
94) Green Bay Packers- Kwon Alexander, ILB LSU
95) Seattle Seahawks- Tre Jackson, OG Florida State
96) Houston Texans via New England Patriots- B.J Finney, C Kansas State
97) New England Patriots (compensatory)- Denzel Perryman, ILB Miami Florida
98) Kansas City Chiefs (compensatory)- Henry Anderson, DE Stanford
99) Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory)- Devin Funchess, WR/TE Michigan
Jordan Katz NFL Mock Draft 2.0
After a very eventful combine, it’s time for Mock Draft 2.0. Some things have changed since my first mock draft, including my individual grades on players and where I have certain players going.
Another thing that will be different in this mock draft is that I’ve predicted a couple of first round trades. Unlike some other mock drafts, Mike and I believe in putting trades in our mocks. It not only depicts who we think could trade up or trade down, but it’s more realistic, since there are always trades throughout the draft. It’s hard to predict past round one, but in that first round, we like to put trades in.
Now not every team that could trade down did, and my trades may differ from one mock draft to another. The trades in this mock draft, and future mock drafts, are based on team needs and what happened up until that team’s pick. So if your favorite team is trading up or trading down, it doesn’t mean that they are leaning that way necessarily. It means that I believe there is a trade that benefits them based on the way my mock draft happened.
One thing remained the same though. Shane Ray and Randy Gregory are still not in my first round.
Round 1
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)- Jameis Winston, QB Florida State- This pick probably won’t change… ever.
2) Tennessee Titans (2-14)- Leonard Williams, DT Southern California- Tennessee is going to tempt any team that wants Marcus Mariota to move up here, particularly the New York Jets. If they don’t get a team to move up, then this is Leonard Williams for two reasons. One, he’s the best player in the draft. More importantly, I don’t see the Titans moving on from Zach Mettenberger that quickly.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)- Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson- Vic Beasley went absolutely bananas at this year’s NFL Combine. Normally I don’t weigh the combine that heavily, but when a player bulks up and still runs incredibly fast times, showing that even at his new weight he can be as fast as he was on his college game tape, he has to get recognition.
I said on Twitter that after his combine, Vic Beasley became my top edge rusher in the draft. While he’s not a 4-3 defensive end, he can be a LEO linebacker like Von Miller, or a strong side edge-rushing linebacker like Anthony Barr.
4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)- Kevin White, WR West Virginia- I wrote in my great debate article that if Kevin White ran a great 40-yard dash, based on his tape and his upside he would overtake Amari Cooper as this year’s top wide receiver. Well, 4.35 seconds later, and Cooper’s time is up. White’s time is now.
5) Washington Redskins (4-12)- Eli Harold, OLB Virginia- Harold was another member of the edge rushing class that tested off the charts in Indianapolis. Since Vic Beasley moved up, and Dante Fowler is best served as a 4-3 defensive end, Eli Harold jumps all the way to number five for me.
6) New York Jets (4-12)- Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon- I personally believe that the Jets will draft Marcus Mariota on draft day. Whether that’s by trading up, or Mariota falling to them at the sixth overall selection, I believe Mariota will be the Jets starting quarterback in 2015.
7) Cleveland Browns from Chicago Bears (5-11)- Amari Cooper, WR Alabama- Here’s the first trade of this mock draft. I think that Chicago is in a luxury position here. They could use a number of different things, and by Cooper being here, they could use that to their advantage and tempt a team that needs a wide receiver to move up.
Enter the Cleveland Browns. They need a number one target with the Josh Gordon suspension looming and the increased likelihood of Jordan Cameron not returning. They also have a first round draft pick to “play with,” because of the Sammy Watkins trade in last year’s draft. Cleveland moves up to take their top tier wide receiver, and the Bears get a few more picks.
8) Atlanta Falcons (6-10)- Dante Fowler Jr., DE Florida- The most NFL ready pass rusher “falls,” to the Falcons because of the rise of Beasley and Harold. I doubt Falcons fans will be complaining.
9) New York Giants (6-10)- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA- Here’s another player on the rise. Digi is probably my favorite player in the draft because of his upside, and because I have had him pegged as a top tier player in this draft for a while.
The Giants need linebackers, but we all know they won’t go there. They do need offensive line as well. However, they also need a defensive end, as either a replacement for Jason Pierre-Paul or along side him.
Digi does it all, and his combine will have his stock rising.
10) St. Louis Rams (6-10)- DeVante Parker, WR Louisville- While I wish the Vikings could land Parker to have the Louisville connection between him and Teddy Bridgewater, this pick makes too much sense for the Rams. They need a number one target and Parker is that guy.
11) Minnesota Vikings (7-9)- T.J Clemmings, OT Pittsburgh- I still believe Clemmings is a right tackle immediately, but after further studying him on tape, I think he can one day become a big time left tackle. Fortunately for Minnesota, they need a big time right tackle, and Clemmings is already that.
12) Chicago Bears from Cleveland Browns (7-9)- Jordan Phillips, NT Oklahoma- Here’s why I felt that Chicago would move down. If they want to address defensive tackle, defensive backs, or even interior offensive line, they can afford to move back and do so. That makes them a good trade partner for another team.
Phillips would be a terrific fit in John Fox’s defense as a zero technique 4-3 defensive tackle, much like Kris Jenkins from Fox’s Carolina Panthers defense in the early 2000’s.
13) New Orleans Saints (7-9)- Danny Shelton, NT Washington- Shelton ran a slow 40-time, but that doesn’t bother me. He eats blockers and stops the run as well as any defensive tackle in this draft. Rob Ryan and company will love having him in the middle of their defense.
14) Miami Dolphins (8-8)- Eddie Goldman, DT Florida State- This pick stays as is. Goldman and Miami are still a perfect match.
15) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)- Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State- Jaelen Strong had a great 40-time and vertical leap at the combine, furthering my opinion that he’s easily the number four wide out in this draft class.
16) Houston Texans (9-7)- Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State- Waynes may wind up going higher than this on draft day, but I still don’t believe that there is a top 15 corner, talent wise, in this draft.
17) San Diego Chargers (9-7)- Brandon Scherff, OG Iowa- While I have Scherff as my best offensive lineman in the draft, Clemmings upside and his ability to play tackle puts him higher on my list than a guard.
Having said that, Scherff still deserves to go top 20, just like Zack Martin did last year, and the Chargers could use interior lineman.
18) Arizona Cardinals from Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)- Alvin “Bud” Dupree, OLB Kentucky- Trade number two. Kansas City is another team in a luxury situation. There are a number of teams that need an edge rusher below them, and Bud Dupree showed his freakish athleticism at the combine, to go along with an impressive college tape. I think they can get one of Pittsburgh, Detroit or Arizona to move up a couple of spots for a big time edge rusher.
19) Cleveland Browns from Buffalo Bills (9-7)- Malcom Brown, DT/NT Texas- The Browns grabbed their wide out, they now need a nose tackle. I like Malcom Brown a lot. He’s a great pass rusher from the interior, and I think he can eat blockers as a nose tackle as well.
20) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)- Landon Collins, SS Alabama- Collins is a hard hitting, in the box safety. Like I said in my first mock draft, that makes him actually fall a bit in the draft.
However, there is no way he makes it past a team desperate for a safety.
21) Cincinnati Bengals* (10-5-1)- Nate Orchard, DE Utah- Orchard fell a bit for me because of his 40-time. It wasn’t bad, it just locked him in to a 4-3 defensive end.
The Bengals need an edge rusher opposite Carlos Dunlap, and Nate Orchard’s tape still speaks volumes for him, in my opinion. I think this is a very good fit.
22) Pittsburgh Steelers* (11-5)- Marcus Peters, CB Washington- This is probably my least confident pick in this mock draft. It’s not because the Steelers don’t need a cornerback, they absolutely do. It’s because of the player.
Yes, Peters has the talent to go even higher than this, but he has a lot of off-the-field issues. I don’t doubt that Mike Tomlin will draft Peters, despite his character issues. I doubt that the Steelers organization will be on board.
Nevertheless, the Steelers need a corner and this is a good scheme fit.
23) Detroit Lions* (11-5)- Preston Smith, DE Mississippi State- I remember when Mike first watched Preston Smith and immediately told me how much I would like him. Low and behold, he was right.
Smith is a good athlete for a 4-3 defensive end, but his strength is in his technique. He has a bevy of pass rushing moves and a motor that doesn’t turn off during games. Preston Smith and Ziggy Ansah will reek havoc in the post Ndamukong Suh era in Detroit.
24) Kansas City Chiefs from Arizona Cardinals * (11-5)- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma- Despite trading down, the Chiefs still get their game changing wide receiver. Make no mistake about it, despite his character issues, DGB is a game changing wide out. There weren’t teams behind them that were going to take a wide out. This is why I felt they could move down in the first place.
25) Carolina Panthers* (7-8-1)- Andrus Peat, OT Stanford- Peat basically swapped spots with T.J Clemmings from my last mock draft. After further evaluation, I think Clemmings has more upside.
That doesn’t mean that Peat won’t be a good tackle at the next level, and if there’s a team that can use his one-on-one blocking well, it’s the Panthers.
26) Baltimore Ravens* (10-6)- Arik Armstead, DE Oregon- This pick might as well be labeled “The Ozzie Newsome Special.” The Ravens draft a guy with top ten potential that falls in the draft because of his lack of college production statistically.
27) Dallas Cowboys* (12-4)- Shaq Thompson, OLB Washington- Thompson is like Vontae Mack from the movie “Draft Day.” If he doesn’t go to the Giants at nine, he’s going to fall hard, just like Mack said if the Browns didn’t take him at seven, he was projected to fall.
Once again, that doesn’t mean that my personal evaluation of Thompson changes. I still think he’s a game changing cover linebacker, and I think he would thrive in Dallas.
28) St. Louis Rams via Denver Broncos* (12-4)- Brett Hundley, QB UCLA- Final trade of round one here. I think one team will move back into the first round for one of Brett Hundley, Garrett Grayson or Bryce Petty. Denver could use to trade out of round one, because I believe they have a few more needs than people may realize.
I think the Rams do want to take a quarterback in the first two rounds, even though they may seem loyal to Sam Bradford. Jeff Fisher has succeeded with mobile quarterbacks in the past, and maybe he’ll find that success with Brett Hundley down the road.
For right now, Hundley’s inability to go to a second read and inconsistent accuracy make him just like every other quarterback in this draft not named Winston or Mariota: a project.
29) Indianapolis Colts* (11-5)- Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA- Just like the last mock draft, the Colts still take a game changing linebacker in Eric Kendricks.
30) Green Bay Packers* (12-4)- Stephone Anthony, ILB Clemson- Stephone Anthony has elevated to a top ten player on my personal board. The reason why he’s here and not higher is because of the teams that are drafting linebackers above, and how they fit schematically. Thompson is a cover linebacker, a good fit for Dallas. Kendricks is an all-around linebacker, something Indy desperately needs. Anthony is more of a 3-4 thumper, if you will. His ability to play the run will be welcomed in Green Bay.
31) Seattle Seahawks* (12-4)- Nelson Agholor, WR Southern California- Agholor is a playmaking wide receiver. He is a terrific route runner and high points the ball very well. He will be a great target for Russell Wilson.
32) New England Patriots* (12-4)- Ty Sambrailo, OT/OG Colorado State- Ty Sambrailo has really good footwork, and with his athletic ability to pull, I think he could be a terrific guard at the next level. That means he has versatility as an offensive lineman (listed as a tackle on some board), which makes him a prototypical New England Patriot.
TRADES:
1) Cleveland Browns trade the #12, #76 and a 2016 3rd to the Chicago Bears for the #7 and a 2016 5th.
2) Arizona Cardinals trade the #24, #86 and a 2016 5th to the Kansas City Chiefs for the #18.
3) Cleveland From Buffalo: Sammy Watkins Trade
4) St. Louis Rams trade the #41, #72 and the #202 to the Denver Broncos for the #28, #124 and the #156
Round 2
33) Tennessee Titans (2-14)- Devin Smith, WR Ohio State
34) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)- Jake Fisher, OT Oregon
35) Oakland Raiders (3-13)- Randy Gregory, DE Nebraska
36) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)- Rashad Greene, WR Florida State
37) New York Jets (4-12)- Breshad Perriman, WR UCF
38) Washington Redskins (4-12)- Carl Davis, DT/NT Iowa
39) Chicago Bears (5-11)- D.J Humphries, OT Florida
40) New York Giants (6-10)- La’el Collins, OT LSU
41) Denver Broncos via St. Louis Rams (6-10)- Laken Tomlinson, OG Duke
42) Atlanta Falcons (6-10)- Todd Gurley, RB Georgia
43) Cleveland Browns (7-9)- Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
44) New Orleans Saints (7-9)- Shane Ray, OLB Missouri
45) Minnesota Vikings (7-9)- Phillip Dorsett, WR Miami
46) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)- Quinten Rollins, CB Miami (OH)
47) Miami Dolphins (8-8)- Ronald Darby, CB Florida State
48) San Diego Chargers (9-7)- A.J Cann, OG South Carolina
49) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)- Mario Edwards Jr., DE Florida State
50) Buffalo Bills (9-7)- Garrett Grayson, QB Colorado State
51) Houston Texans (9-7)- Hau’oli Kikaha, OLB Washington
52) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)- Kevin Johnson, CB Wake Forest
53) Cincinnati Bengals* (10-5-1)- Benadrick McKinney, ILB Mississippi State
54) Detroit Lions* (11-5)- Duke Johnson, RB Miami
55) Arizona Cardinals* (11-5)- Clive Walford, TE Miami
56) Pittsburgh Steelers* (11-5)- Danielle Hunter, OLB LSU
57) Carolina Panthers* (7-8-1)- Tyler Lockett, WR Kansas State
58) Baltimore Ravens* (10-6)- Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin
59) Denver Broncos* (12-4)- Hroniss Grassu, C Oregon
60) Dallas Cowboys* (12-4)- Tevin Coleman, RB Indiana
61) Indianapolis Colts* (11-5)- Derron Smith, FS Fresno State
62) Green Bay Packers* (12-4)- Ellis McCarthy, NT UCLA
63) Seattle Seahawks* (12-4)- Cedric Ogbuehi, OT Texas A&M
64) New England Patriots* (12-4)- Devin Funchess, WR/TE Michigan
Jordan Katz NFL Mock Draft 1.0
The wonderful NFL Mock Draft season is upon us. It is the start of the hope that comes with every offseason. For the teams that don’t make the playoffs, it’s a chance to rebuild, and a way to get back to the postseason. For those that made the playoffs, it’s chance to further your chances of making it back next season..
This season there are a lot of talented prospects. There are risk/reward players, a loaded wide receiver class, and one Jameis Winston. In reality, the debate of Winston or Marcus Mariota could determine the way the entire draft plays out. Which player do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers give the keys to their franchise to? Or do they opt to build their team further before taking a quarterback, and draft an elite prospect like Leonard Williams or Amari Cooper?
This is just the first of my mock drafts before the NFL Draft, which has now become a spectacle to behold. Since this is the first one, there are no trades, because not every spot has been set in stone yet. As the draft gets closer and closer, I’ll start mapping out trades based on which teams I think are most likely to move up or down.
ROUND ONE
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)- Jameis Winston, QB Florida State
The worst kept secret in the world is that Tampa Bay is taking a quarterback, if they stay with the first overall pick. In my opinion, Winston is actually the safer of the two quarterbacks, despite his off the field issues, because he has all the tools to be a franchise quarterback at the next level.
2) Tennessee Titans (2-14)- Leonard Williams, DT USC
Tennessee obviously needs a quarterback, but something tells me they would opt to trade down rather than drafting Marcus Mariota. Williams is my top prospect in the draft. He’s disruptive in the run game, he has elite pass rushing moves, and his versatility makes him a perfect fit opposite a zero technique in Jurrell Casey.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)- Dante Fowler Jr., DE Florida
Fowler is my top pass rusher in the draft, and for a team that needs an edge rusher this makes the most sense.
4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)- Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
Oakland is in desperate need of a number one target for Derek Carr, and Cooper is surely that guy. Cooper is an Antonio Brown clone. He excels at route running, he’s explosive out of his break and he has phenomenal hands. This is a no brainer.
5) Washington Redskins (4-12)- Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson
While Beasley isn’t my second best edge player, he’s my best 3-4 outside linebacker, which is what Washington plays. Beasley is a pass rushing extraordinaire and can rush with his hand in the dirt or standing up, which is an underrated asset for edge rushers.
6) New York Jets (4-12)- Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
Jets fans get the benefit of the Titans passing on Mariota, but is it a positive? The possibility of Mariota not translating to the pros because of Oregon’s system quarterback has been well documented. Also his lack of an inventory of throws could hurt him on draft day.
However, I believe that Mariota’s accuracy, underrated arm strength, and intelligence will allow him to overcome the “system,” critiques.
7) Chicago Bears (5-11)- Brandon Scherff, OG/OT Iowa
In my opinion, Brandon Scherff is the best offensive lineman in the draft, but he is a guard, not a tackle. This could lead the Bears to pass and go for Landon Collins, even though an in the box safety might not go that high.
If they go for offensive line, I think Scherff is so good as a guard that he should be the first offensive lineman off the board.
8) Atlanta Falcons (6-10)- Nate Orchard, DE Utah
Falcons fans, I know what your thinking. Where is Randy Gregory? I’m not as high on Gregory as others. I think he takes plays off, relies too much on his athleticism, and doesn’t set the edge well versus the run. I see Vernon Gholston 2.0.
Nate Orchard, however, is going to start flying up draft boards. He isn’t as gifted as some of the other pass rushers, but he’s smart, he has a nose for the ball and good pass rushing moves.
9) New York Giants (6-10)- Shaq Thompson, OLB Washington
Here’s my thought process with this one. Eventually the Giants are going to draft a first round linebacker. Shaq Thompson has the makings of a stud. Yes, he doesn’t have ideal size and build. Despite this he’s a beast in coverage, he ranges from sideline to sideline incredibly well, and he has a great football I.Q, something the Giants really value. This could be the time the Giants finally go linebacker because of that.
10) St. Louis Rams (6-10)- Kevin White, WR West Virginia
If Amari Cooper is the best wide receiver in this draft, then Kevin White is 1A. White has the ability to be a home run threat, as well as a red zone target. He has lethal quickness out of his cuts and is a beast in the air. If he can sure up his drops and become a more complete route runner, he could be better than Amari Cooper.
11) Minnesota Vikings (7-9)- Andrus Peat, OT Stanford
Minnesota needs a wide receiver, but there are lots of wide outs in this draft. They also need a tackle, and there are not nearly enough of those.
Peat could be a strong tackle at the next level. He has the athleticism and one-on-one blocking ability to be great in pass protection. Even though his balance is off sometimes, Peat has the makings of a solid pro.
12) Cleveland Browns (7-9)- DeVante Parker, WR Louisville
Parker looks like an unpolished A.J Green to me. He’s not as good of a route runner as Green was out of college, but he’s equally as explosive, and equally as good with the ball in the air. Parker will prove to be a great target for whomever Cleveland decides to start at quarterback in 2015.
13) New Orleans Saints (7-9)- Jordan Phillips, NT Oklahoma
Jordan Phillips is my fourth best prospect in this draft. Why? Phillips has everything I look for in a nose tackle. He eats blockers, he’s disruptive in the run game, and you can’t block him one-on-one. He’s a perfect fit for the Saints defense.
14) Miami Dolphins (8-8)- Eddie Goldman, DT Florida State
Right behind Jordan Phillips in my rankings is Eddie Goldman. He’s so disruptive in both the run and the pass game, and constantly makes big plays. The Dolphins need a 4-3 defensive tackle, and putting Goldman with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon may make the Dolphins front four one of the best in the league.
15) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)- Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State
San Francisco could go cornerback here, but I think the need to replace Michael Crabtree is too great to ignore. Strong is one of my favorite players in this draft. Some may question his release and the fact his route tree isn’t complete, but I love the upside. He’s great with the ball in his hands, he has the speed to burn defenders, and he is really good with the ball in the air.
16) Houston Texans (9-7)- Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
Waynes is an interesting case for me. He has the man coverage ability to be a shutdown corner. He seems to often be in the wide receivers pocket regardless of whether he’s off the line or in press coverage.
However, teams just seemed to avoid him in favor of better matchups. Can Waynes go from being seldom targeted to becoming frequently targeted, and remain as productive?
17) San Diego Chargers (9-7)- Landon Collins, SS Alabama
Collins would be higher if he wasn’t an in the box safety. He rarely misses a tackle, and while he is not a ball hawk, his instincts are terrific. Putting him opposite Eric Weddle could prove to be one of the best safety tandems in the league.
18) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma
If there is a team that is going to draft DGB’s talent despite his character issues, it’s going to be Andy Reid and the Chiefs. DGB’s massive size (6’6) and explosive speed make him an incredibly difficult guard for any defensive back. If he gets his off the field issues in order, he could be the steal of the draft at 18.
19) Cleveland Browns via Buffalo Bills* (9-7)- Danny Shelton, NT Washington
Shelton is very comparable to Jordan Phillips, in fact they are almost the same player. He eats blockers incredibly well, and is great in the run game. He explodes off the line and sheds blockers with his strong hands.
The difference between him and Phillips, in my opinion, is I think Phillips is dominant in the pass game as well, where as I feel Shelton has some work to do there. Shelton’s pad level is also occasionally too high.
*- Browns acquired pick in Sammy Watkins Trade
20) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)- Marcus Peters, CB Washington
Marcus Peters has off the field issues, but he also has a ton of tools. He’s got the size to man up taller receivers, the athleticism to guard the shifty wide outs, and he hawks the ball.
Peters needs to become more consistent, and could improve in press coverage, but the talent is there.
21) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA
Someone I have very high on my personal board is Owamgbe Odighizuwa. He does have an injury history, which could keep him out of the first round, but if a team is willing to overlook that, they could get a steal.
Odighizuwa has a great first step, he gaps the run well, and has the pass rushing ability equivalent of the top guys in this draft.
22) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)- Eli Harold, OLB Virginia
Still no Randy Gregory? That’s right. Still no Shane Ray? Right again.
Harold might have the most potential of the edge players in this draft. After watching Harold, I saw a number of chances for sacks where he failed to bring down the quarterback. Despite this, he still had a really productive season.
Harold has explosive speed and really good pass rushing moves. He’s also deceptively strong. If he becomes more consistent, watch out.
23) Detroit Lions (11-5)- Arik Armstead, DT Oregon- The talent is there for Arik Armstead, but he needs to become more consistent. Even though the production isn’t there, I think Armstead’s talent, along with his size and power, makes him a great replacement for Ndamukong Suh (assuming he walks in free agency).
24) Arizona Cardinals (11-5)- Shane Ray, OLB Missouri
Shane Ray is only here because I think Bud Dupree is better served as a 4-3 defensive end than a 3-4 outside linebacker. Ray is wildly inconsistent, particularly as a tackler and a run stopper. He does have great athleticism and a quick first step, but he needs to become more consistent.
25) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)- TJ Clemmings, OT Pittsburgh
I’m not sure Clemmings is the dominant tackle that other mock draft enthusiasts believe he is, but Clemmings is a behemoth in the run game. He’s strong and he does a great job of getting to the second level. I think a team that runs the ball frequently can make great use of him, and the Panthers do just that.
26) Baltimore Ravens (10-6)- Malcolm Brown, DT/NT Texas
Brown doesn’t have long arms, which could make fall on draft day. That doesn’t bother me though. I love his ability to pass rush and eat blockers. He’s strong as an ox too.
27) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)- Alvin “Bud” Dupree, DE Kentucky
Yep, you guessed it. Still no Randy Gregory.
Bud Dupree is actually one of my favorite players in the draft, despite him being in the back end of the first round. He uses his hands incredibly well as a pass rusher, and seems to have a high I.Q for a defensive lineman. Dupree gets really good leverage and he’s fast around the edge as well. There’s big upside here for Dallas with Bud Dupree.
28) Denver Broncos (12-4)- Gerrod Holliman, FS Louisville
Maybe the riskiest first round selection I have in this mock draft is Gerrod Holliman. Holliman is a ball hawk and showed the ability to read the quarterback very well at Louisville.
The negative is that Holliman is an inconsistent tackler and doesn’t put his, “hat in the ring,” versus the run.
With T.J Ward as his counterpart, I think the Broncos system sets Holliman up to succeed at the next level, making him worthy of the selection and the risk.
29) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)- Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA
Kendricks is incredibly high on my personal board, but team needs finds him falling to the Colts at the 29. I think he’s easily the best middle linebacker in the draft, because there’s nothing Kendricks doesn’t do well. He’s equally as good versus the run as he is in coverage. The Colts would be really happy with this selection.
30) Green Bay Packers (12-4)- Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
Williams looks a lot like Dwayne Allen to me. I don’t think he’ll ever be the game changer that Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski are, but his ability to block and his soft hands will make him a great weapon in a dynamic Packers offense, particularly in the red zone.
31) New England Patriots (12-4)- Derron Smith, FS Fresno State
Derron Smith needs to improve in his angles to ball carriers, but he is a terrific tackler, he plays the run well, and he is a ball hawk. Should the Patriots lose Devin McCourty to free agency, Bill Belichick will probably be all over Smith’s upside in round one.
32) Seattle Seahawks (12-4)- La’el Collins, OT LSU- Had this been two weeks ago, I would’ve told you that the Seahawks selection at tackle was Cedric Ogbuehi. However, after his injury, he may fall in the draft. This elevates La’el Collins to this position.
Collins is unpolished in pass protection, but he’s a good run blocker and has ideal size for the position. He also does a good job of getting to the second level.
DraftStock.Net 