Justin Layne

2019 NFL Combine Winners and Losers

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With the NFL Draft prospects departing from Indianapolis, it’s time for a recap on how the two days went for both sides of the ball. Even though the NFL Combine is a point of contention among the draft community, the Combine serves a purpose. It is meant to seek out weaknesses in a player, both in terms of technique that you see on the field during the drills, as well as their fluidity as an athlete.

The question that trips up scouts and analysts is how much do you weigh what you see in Indianapolis against the tape? If an offensive lineman looks stiff in the hips during the drills, do you knock him down a peg even if his tape is good? Let’s say a wide receiver shows an elite 40 time, but struggles with the 3-Cone drill. Where does that put his athletic score? Does a defensive lineman that crushes the 3-Cone get a pass if he struggles in the 10 yard split because he has bad technique on his 40 yard dash?

Regardless of your views on the combine, down here there’s always winners and losers, and you don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of that line (to paraphrase Bruce Springsteen). So with that in mind, here’s who I feel were the winners and losers of the Combine this weekend.

Day One Winners (RBs and OL)

1- Chris Lindstrom, Garrett Bradbury and Erik McCoy: The top players along the interior really stepped up and made their presence felt this weekend. Garrett Bradbury and Chris Lindstrom were big breadwinners, dominating the athletic testing and showing elite level fluidity in their hips and ankles during the drill portion of the combine. I thought Erik McCoy stayed stride for stride with Bradbury throughout the day as well, and he remained my top center in this draft. All three of these guys should be quality starters at the next level.

2- Josh Jacobs: How do you win the combine without participating? When the rest of the position group performs incredibly average. Jacobs was easily most people’s RB1, but there was some buzz around the running backs you could get in rounds two and three, like Damien Harris, David Montgomery and others.

However, none of the potential three down backs tested well enough to challenge Jacobs for the top spot. This makes Josh Jacobs even more of a commodity come April, and a potential Top 20 lock.

3- Miles Sanders and Justice Hill: Keeping in mind the aforementioned analysis about the running backs, there were two players that did shine at the position. Sanders and Hill showed explosive athleticism, and both players on tape are shifty backs that show explosiveness in the open field. Sanders in particular is a favorite of mine. He’s a willing blocker and a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield. Teams should look at both of these guys as game changers out of the backfield in the pass game.

Day One Losers

1- Elijah Holyfield: Not many players had a worse combine than Elijah Holyfield. Holyfield tested extremely poorly during the athletic portion of the combine, with the pinnacle being a 4.79 and a 4.81 in the 40 yard dash. Even as a bigger back, you have to be able to show quality quickness and some breakaway ability. Holyfield showed none of that. His stock is definitely down.

2- Greg Little: This isn’t a shocker for me, but Little tested extremely poorly. His tape was constantly underwhelming because the supposed five star recruit and big time athlete never showed up. This weekend, Little confirmed that he is a right tackle at the next level, and he needs to be developed even further He was too stiff during the drills and too slow during the athletic tests.

3- Wisconsin Offensive Linemen: The buzz on the Wisconsin players was already low heading into this weekend. After the on field drills at the Combine, their collective stock might have dipped even further. David Edwards was a little high out of the stance when hitting the pads, and he was a little stiff in the hips during the other drills. The same goes for Michael Dieter. While I think Edwards still gets drafted between the third and the fourth round because of his intelligence at the position, this could be a rough go for a group that was deemed the best offensive line in college football just six months go.

Day Two Winners (QB, WR and TE)

1- Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins: The top QB’s had themselves a good weekend. First off, we have to start with the most anticipated measurement in the history of the combine. Kyler Murray came in at 5’10 and over 200 pounds, then decided to call it a Combine because he physically couldn’t help his draft stock any further. Now some will question his decision not to throw, and we’ll get to that later on in the article (Big J tease right there). The reason he didn’t is because he couldn’t further his draft stock by throwing. All the rumors were surrounding his measurements. People were questioning if Murray would come in over 5’9. Once he matched Russell Wilson, the only way his draft stock could fall is if he stunk it up during the drills throwing to receivers he didn’t know. So he took his paycheck and exited stage left.

On the other hand, Dwayne Haskins chose to let it rip, and boy did it work out. The ball popped effortlessly out of his hands. At least once a drill he showed some elite level anticipation, which was his big question mark for me. There were definitely still some questions on my end, a few throws were behind guys and a tad late. The other Quarterbacks were so average though, that Dwayne Haskins looked elite. He’s a top ten lock.

2- DK Metcalf and AJ Brown: The Ole Miss duo absolutely crushed the Combine. Metcalf’s freakish performance has been well documented, but that doesn’t mean it’s being over exaggerated. His athletic testing was otherworldly for his size. Don’t get trapped into his slow three cone either. This dude sinks his hips on tape and gets a clean release almost every time. Metcalf is an elite wide receiver at the next level if he stays healthy, and that was confirmed this weekend.

AJ Brown was someone who I thought would test much better than people realized. Not to brag, but he proved me right. Brown had a sub 4.5 40 and almost a 37 inch vertical. He could definitely wind up in the first round of my personal mock draft, and you should see him off the board in the first 50 picks come April.

3- N’Keal Harry and Hakeem Butler: Speaking of receivers, N’Keal Harry and Hakeem Butler put to rest any questions about their ability to win down the field. Harry was a quality prospect before this event, the one thing that he needed to answer to put himself into the round one conversation. He did that, so expect to see Harry off the board on day one.

Butler might have been the most impressive player in this position group not named DK Metcalf. At 6’5 he posted a 4.48 40 yard dash, a ridiculous number for someone of that size. I still have reservations about his tape; he often has drops and double catches. With that being said, I’d be shocked if Butler made it out of round two.

4- Noah Fant: TE1 is a legitimate conversation now. If you’ve read my mock drafts, you know I’ve had Fant higher than TJ Hockenson from day one because Fant does more in the passing game without losing a step as a blocker. Fant blew the combine away, testing through the roof and showing clean cuts in and out of route combinations on the field during the drills. TJ Hockenson had a great day in his own right, but a 4.51 40 yard dash and a 6.81 3 Cone drill have teams salivating at the idea of selecting Noah Fant.

5- Parris Campbell: Campbell was going to be extremely fast, so it’s not his athletic testing that wowed me. It’s how smooth he was during the drills. I didn’t love his route running on tape, and I thought he had some double catches as well. Campbell showed none of that this weekend. I will have to go back and rewatch Campbell’s tape because he showed none of the weaknesses I thought he would. Expect to see him go off the board early in a month or so.

Honorable Mentions: Tyree Jackson (ran a 4.6 at 6’7! He also flashed at times during the drills, showing that massive arm strength), Emanuel Hall and Andy Isabella (both receivers absolutely torched the athletic portion of the event), Josh Oliver and Kahale Warring (two small school TE’s that could be day three steals)

Day Two Losers:

1- Kyler Murray: Here is the wrap up to the Big J tease I alluded to earlier in the article. Murray obviously put on water weight to get up over 200 pounds, and this is why he chose not to participate in any drills or athletic testing. He wasn’t comfortable doing so at the weight he was at. For me, that would stem the conversation of if he is able to take NFL punishment. Murray will still be fine in terms of his draft value, but I can see teams not being thrilled about this decision.

2- Kelvin Harmon: Harmon really struggled in the athletic portion of the combine, which was a major concern for him. Obviously Harmon was not a blazer at NC State, but he showed quickness in and out of cuts on tape and the ability to high point the ball. He did not show the measurables to have those skills translate against more athletic NFL Defensive Backs. I’m still sticking with him as a high end round two pick, but he fell down my big board a bit.

3- Isaac Nauta and Kaden Smith: Here’s the deal; if you run a 4.9 as a skill position player, you’re out. It’s that simple. Both these guys tested dreadfully slow this weekend. They gone.

Day Three Winners (DL and LBs)

1- Brian Burns: Burns has been in my top five players the entire draft process, and he dominated this weekend. He moves so fluidly for someone that is nearly 6’5, and weighing in at 249 did not slow him down at all. This dude is a freight train coming off the edge.

2- Montez Sweat: Speaking of freight trains coming of the edge, Montez Sweat confirmed every reason why I had him in my top ten players. His technique was never a question, but he proved this weekend he was a better athlete than he was given credit for. He answered questions about his ankle flexibility with a good 3 Cone Drill, and you can’t ignore his 1.55 10 yard split. A great showing for Sweat in Indy.

3- “The Big Fellas,” Dexter Lawrence and Khalen Saunders: Both these guys were deemed to be phenomenal athletes for their size, and they proved it. These two beasts rolled into the combine over 320 pounds (D-Law was 340) and both came in with impressive 10 yard splits for their size. In my opinion, their tape matches their combine performances.

Lawrence is a behemoth in the run game and he can collapse the pocket to help his teammates get to the passer. Saunders was moved all over the lot at Western Illinois, he even stood up at times and rushed from the edge. He’s explosive for his size with a great first step.

These two will be quality starters in the NFL.

4- Anthony Nelson: Here’s another edge player that I expected to test better athletically, and he proved me right. Nelson showed good ankle flexibility with a terrific 3 Cone, and he was a fluid mover during the on field drills. I had him a little too low on my previous big board, partially because I was hedging my bets. That won’t happen next time.

5- Blake Cashman: Cashman won the “I need to go watch this player ASAP,” award this week. In a weak linebacker class, he made himself some money. To list off the athletic testing, 4.5 flat on the 40, a 37.5’’ vertical, 10’2 on the broad jump, sub 7 on the 3 Cone and a 4.12 short shuttle. Supposedly the production is there on tape, which would make him a very attractive option for teams that miss out on the big three off ball linebackers.

Day Three Losers:

1- Jachai Polite: Polite is a puzzler. His tape is really impressive, and everything you heard out of the Florida camp about him was positive. Having said that, he didn’t interview well at all, and he tested even worse, posting a 1.71 10 yard split at 258 pounds. He wasn’t particularly great at the start of the on-field drills either, and then inexplicably stopped the workout with a hamstring injury. Polite’s tape should still keep him in the first 75 picks, but the former Gator has definitely lost the first round hype. A big story on draft day will be how far Polite falls.

2- Clelin Ferrell: Ferrell showed very little dip and bend ability during the 3 Cone and Short Shuttle, and his drills weren’t much better. Now this isn’t a surprise to many, but as someone who thought he was a better athlete than his tape showed, he drops down my board a bit.

I do still think he will be a very productive pro. He’s great against the run and he collapses the pocket by long arming tackles. 

However, Ferrell has to fall because his ceiling is just not as high as some of the other defensive linemen in this draft. That was confirmed this weekend.

3- LJ Collier: I was never on the LJ Collier bandwagon because I wasn’t high on his tape. For those that were, the athletic testing should have you extremely concerned. Collier never looked fluid and struggled all throughout the day. Maybe he can bulk up and kick inside, but I don’t think he has the technique to do so.

Honorable Category of Confusion: Ed Oliver- Okay, we all knew Ed Oliver put on some weight to measure in bigger, and that’s why he didn’t want to run. However, he could’ve ran and done all the drills at that weight and still tested in at least the 80th percentile across the board. He was made for weekends like this. Heck, he posted a workout video this summer where he was doing linebacker and defensive back drills! His stock could have received a freebie boost this weekend, but alas, he refused. I’ll never understand why.

Day Four Winners

1- The Safeties: The safety class was deemed to be ridiculously weak, and day four could’ve gone real bad for them with Deionte Thompson and Nasir Adderley sitting out. However, players like Jonathan Abram, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Amani Hooker stepped up and showed some surprising athleticism throughout their portion of the Combine. It’s still not a strong class, but this group did surprise a bit.

2- Byron Murphy, Justin Layne, David Long and Rock Ya-Sin: Here’s why this group is so big; these four were the only players among the cornerbacks to put up even an average performance during the drills on the field.

Murphy was the cleanest in and out of his backpedal, he flipped his hips fluidly and he never lost momentum coming out of his T-Step in the “W-Drill.” He confirmed CB1 for me despite an average 40 time.

Layne is a long, athletic corner that stepped up and showed precision in his backpedal down the hash marks. He also tested very well athletically.

Long was the biggest winner of the combine, catapulting his draft stock with a clean backpedal and natural footwork. His tape is a bit confusing, but some team will gamble on him in day two.

Ya-Sin ran a solid 40 on his second run, but he started slow during the drill process. However, there’s a reason they call it “Temple Tough.” The former Temple corner got better as the day went on and confirmed the first round player I saw on tape.

Day Four Losers

1- The Cornerbacks Not Named Above: This group is by far the biggest loser of the combine. The question about the corners was simple; would the athletic testing match the collegiate tape and production? The answer was a resounding no. Almost every guy struggled with their backpedal, many players flipped their hips before the coaches asked them to, and the technique was just stiff across the board. This will become a massive storyline during the NFL Draft because these cornerbacks furthered the polarizing analysis about him.

2- Trayvon Mullen and Greedy Williams: These two cornerbacks are worthy of their own category because of how rough their days were. Mullen never looked comfortable during the drills. He was often flat footed and stiff in the hips. His tape was inconsistent, and that was confirmed this weekend. It’ll be interesting to see where he winds up.

Greedy Williams is the biggest culprit of the polarizing analysis. He came out of the blocks and ran a 4.38, a terrific time. Then he got in the drills and couldn’t get it right. He stumbled out of his backpedal and he flipped his hips early on three separate occasions, once coming out of the backpedal in the first drill and twice during the backpedal and weave drill. Then he announced that he had cramped up, and his day was done. The guy who is by far the toughest evaluation for NFL teams became even more of a question mark this weekend.

2019 NFL Combine Preview: Defense

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Three Things to Know

1- The Defensive Backs are the Most Important Position of the Weekend: In the preview of the Offensive side of the ball (https://draftstock.net/2019/02/27/nfl-combine-preview-offense/), I wrote about the Offensive Linemen and how you can learn the most about the players in that position group this weekend because of the on field drills. The same holds true for the defensive backs. Watching the players flip their hips out of their backpedal, change directions quickly, and drive off their back foot to break on the football can provide teams with the most amount of information on any position group this weekend. We say it all the time; the Combine is meant to affirm what you see on film. This position group can do that the most accurately during the weekend in Indianapolis.

2- Ed Oliver is #Back, but He’s Not the Only Guy Who Will Have a Big Weekend: The Draft Buzz has cooled significantly on Ed Oliver, but expect that to change this weekend. Oliver is going to dominate every facet of the athletic testing and on field workouts. If you don’t believe me, go watch his workouts on YouTube and just read what guys are saying about him. Mike Mayock, the new GM of the Oakland Raiders, casually mentioned that Oliver could run a “4.5 something,” like it was normal for 270 pound human beings not named Zion Williamson to move like that. Oliver is appointment television this weekend.

Having said that, Ed Oliver isn’t the only player who will be on display this weekend. Look for Brian Burns to wow scouts with elite athleticism for someone of his size, as well as Nick Bosa to surprise with his athleticism. I feel like we forgot how good Nick Bosa is because it’s been so long since he’s played, and we’ve almost assuredly forgotten the fact that he is the better athlete between the two Bosa’s. The top end of the Edge Rushers will wow this weekend, and Bosa along with Burns will headline that group.

3- Instead of Watching the Off Ball Linebackers, Give Yourself a Mental Break: Once you get past Devin White, Mack Wilson and Devin Bush, this linebacker class is extremely underwhelming. Even if certain players test well, and there’s a few that I’m assuming will, there are no other three down linebackers outside of those three. This position group is a classic case of not overreacting to the combine. If someone like Germaine Pratt or Vosean Joseph tests well, don’t ignore the lack of consistency on tape.

Having said that, this group easily has the most to prove on the defensive side of the ball, which leads us into our next topic…

Players With the Most to Prove

1- Off Ball Linebackers: It’s very common for position groups that lack depth to be overdrafted on draft day because they are at a premium. The group that will follow this rule the most closely come April will be the Linebackers. So if you’re a player in this position group and you establish yourself as the best of the second wave behind White, Wilson and Bush, you could find yourself in the first 75 picks with ease.

2- Clelin Ferrell, Montez Sweat and Anthony Nelson: These three are deemed “less fluid,” in their ability to dip and bend, but more technical than the other pure edge rushers. This makes the Combine a very important weekend for these three. They don’t need to have gaudy numbers like Burns, Josh Allen, and Jachai Polite, because that’s unrealistic. What they need to do is show good hip and ankle flexibility in the 4 Bag drill, as well as a precise area of impact when punching the bags. In short, the on field drills are very important for these three.

3- The Bigger Cornerbacks in the Draft Class: The NFL Combine is meant to expose weakness, but one of the things that it can also do is put skill sets on display. For the bigger, longer cornerbacks like Joejuan Williams, Amani Oruwariye, Justin Layne and others, this could be a week that catapults them up draft board. Teams love cornerbacks with elite size that can move and flip their hips. The combine puts defensive backs through the proverbial ringer with a very good set of drills that are comparable to a necessary NFL skillset. So if a bigger, longer cornerback can dominate this weekend, they can wind up being selected very high.

4- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson: The safety class isn’t particularly appetizing, but CGJ is deemed to be one of the best cover corners in the draft, and some have him as Safety #1 this year. Personally, I think the Combine will trap people into thinking he has elite upside as a rangy free safety because I think he’s going to crush it. He flips his hips naturally out of the backpedal and he does show some elite athleticism. So when he crushes the drills and the athletic testing this weekend, expect to see him very high on Mock Draft boards.

5- Jaylon Ferguson: Ferguson has phenomenal production at Louisiana Tech, but he is not a fluid athlete by any stretch of the imagination. However, you know who thinks Ferguson is an athlete? Mock Draft Analysts among the big networks. That makes me think that scouts and GM’s may feel the same way. So if Ferguson tests well, maybe he winds up in the Top 50.

If he doesn’t test well, his tape will get largely thrown out and he will fall quickly down draft boards.

Sleepers of the Combine

1- Khalen Saunders: This is the easiest analysis of the weekend. Khalen Saunders is an unreal athlete for his size (just under 6’1, 320 pounds). He stands up… let me repeat that for the folks in the back… HE STANDS UP at 320 pounds and can rush off the edge (you’ll see that quickness in the drills). He also uses push-pull and elite strength to bully players along the interior (you’ll see that lower body strength in the broad jump and vertical jump). This dude is going to wow in Indianapolis.

2- Justin Layne: There’s a ton of buzz around Layne prior to the Combine. He has elite size and shows some NFL level traits on tape. If he runs well at the Combine, you will see Layne as an early Day Two selection come April.

3- Kendall Sheffield: Every year there’s always a “Combine Hero.” This is someone who gets drafted higher than expected because they show ridiculous athleticism in March. This year, expect that guy to be Kendall Sheffield. By all accounts, many expect him to be the fastest player at this year’s combine, and he should perform well in the other athletic tests also. The former Ohio State cornerback will be the big winner of the weekend.