Justin Fields
Jordan Katz’s “What I Would Do” 2021 NFL Mock Draft: 3.0
All right folks, this is a monster two round mock draft. There are a ton of rumors surrounding the quarterbacks in the NFL. Who is going to land Deshaun Watson? Will the Jets trade Sam Darnold? Will someone take a chance on Jimmy Garoppolo or Mitchell Trubisky? Lastly, how will all of the quarterback moves determine where the quarterback prospects are selected?
In this mock draft, I made the call on what makes the most sense for every team, based on the rumors that are circulating. I tried to generate trade scenarios for the star quarterbacks that would benefit both teams, not just one or the other. If I felt there was a move made in free agency at the quarterback position, I made an “editor’s note,” at the team’s first round selection. In short, I tried to determine the best fit for every team at the quarterback position, and then created a personal style mock draft based off of that.
Keeping in tune with the strategy on the quarterback movement, trades in this mock also had to benefit both teams. There were plenty of times a team was willing to trade out, but did not have a “dance partner.” By taking control of all 32 teams, I did not execute any draft trade that I felt was too one sided.
Buckle up folks, this mock draft is a wild one.
ROUND ONE
1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson- There is no analysis needed here.
2) New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB BYU- The Jets are in a perfect position to trade for Deshaun Watson. They will move Sam Darnold in the coming weeks, adding more ammunition for a potential deal.
However, recent reports from Houston indicate they want multiple selections, as well as two young players that can be building blocks. The only player the Jets have to offer is Quinnen Williams, who is likely untouchable.
In the end, the Miami Dolphins stand the best chance to land Deshaun Watson. They are in a better position to win, they have the cap space to also bring in Allen Robinson, and they have the young assets the Texans desire.
The Dolphins get Watson, the Jets get Zach Wilson, who has potential to thrive in Mike Lafluer’s offensive system
3) *TRADE* Houston Texans (from Dolphins via Texans): Penei Sewell, OT Oregon- If the Dolphins are the team that lands Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa would most likely go back in the deal. That takes the Texans out of the quarterback conversation, and puts them as the favorite to select Penei Sewell in the top three.
While Sewell has all pro ability at left tackle, he has the athleticism and intelligence to play either tackle spot. Houston will have their quarterback of the future and bookend tackles while simultaneously getting rid of a player who no longer wants to play for them.
4) Atlanta Falcons: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State- Both Trey Lance and Justin Fields would benefit from sitting a year and learning the finer points of quarterback play. They both have mechanical issues, and they both struggle with pressure. Of the two, Lance has the most upside. He has a big arm, his internal clock in the pocket is significantly better, and he’s just 20 years old. Atlanta selects Lance as Matt Ryan’s heir.
5) Cincinnati Bengals: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida- The Bengals need pass catchers, regardless of their position. The best pass catcher in this draft, regardless of position, is Kyle Pitts. He’s an elite athlete who possesses phenomenal technique in his routes. Pitts is terrific in 50/50 situations, and has the versatility to win from anywhere on the field. Joe Burrow to Kyle Pitts is going to be Cincinnati’s recipe for success for a decade.
6) Philadelphia Eagles: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU- Ja’Marr Chase makes the most sense for the Eagles because of his “floor,” at the next level. He’s polished as a route runner, his route tree is very advanced, and he can win down the field. Chase may not have the “ceiling,” of the other two top wide receivers in this draft, but his “floor,” is significantly higher. Philadelphia selects him to be their top target in 2021.
Editor’s Note: I don’t love the idea of Justin Fields starting right away for an offense that is going to go through some changes. That is why I kept Jalen Hurts as the starter for the Eagles in 2021, and gave him a true number one receiver.
7) Detroit Lions: Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama- Waddle has the explosiveness and athleticism to dominate down the field, as well as with the ball in his hands. His upside is tremendous because he’s a more polished version of Henry Ruggs, but there might be some growing pains during his rookie year. Waddle needs to vary his releases, and he has some double catches on tape. With Detroit entering an organizational rebuild, Waddle will have time to grow into his full potential.
Editor’s Note: The Lions got Jared Goff so they would not have to overpay in draft capital for a quarterback in this draft. If they truly are entering a rebuild, I would start Goff until a roster is built. Inserting the franchise quarterback last is always the best course of action.
8) Carolina Panthers: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State- With the Panthers still committed to Teddy Bridgewater financially for another season, they are in a perfect position to groom their rookie quarterback without the organizational pressure of starting him right away. That makes them an ideal landing spot for Justin Fields. Fields struggles with a collapsing pocket. His mechanics go awry and his internal clock is nonexistent. Watching a veteran quarterback deal with the speed of the NFL game would help Fields immensely in his transition to the next level.
Editor’s Note: Despite selecting Justin Fields, Teddy Bridgewater will start in 2021.
9) Denver Broncos: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame- Denver’s defense needs a captain at the second level. Owusu-Koramoah is a better fit for this team than Micah Parsons because of the talent they have off the edge. Parsons’ impact in the passing game is as a pass rusher. Owusu-Koramoah is a terrific player in coverage, which fits Denver’s needs better.
Editor’s Note: Denver will mix it up with a lot of quarterbacks in this free agency class. However, unless they draft one, I think Drew Lock is the starter in 2021.
10) Dallas Cowboys: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina- Horn is the top cornerback among the big three because of his ability in press coverage, as well as his ball skills. He excels in cover one and cover three. The Cowboys really missed Byron Jones in the backend of their defense last year. They should be a lock for a cornerback at 10.
11) New York Giants: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama- The Heisman Trophy winner might slide farther down the draft board than people realize. There are going to be legitimate concerns about his size at the next level. Is Smith too slight to adjust to tighter coverage? Can he win 50/50 balls in the NFL?
If he does drop, the Giants are as far as his slide goes. They desperately need a true number one target. Despite the concerns about Smith’s frame, he’s still a top end prospect that can be a number one receiver at the next level.
12) San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama- San Francisco’s secondary is getting gutted this offseason. Assuming they hold on to this 12th selection, which is a lofty assumption based on the rumors surrounding them and the quarterback position, Patrick Surtain is the most ideal fit for them. His “floor,” is the highest of the big three corners, and he has the most versatility schematically.
Editor’s Note: I think the starting quarterback of the Niners in 2021 will be Jimmy Garoppolo, despite all the rumors surrounding that position.
13) Los Angeles Chargers: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL USC- I was late to finishing my evaluation on Vera-Tucker, which is why he’s a big riser in this mock draft. Vera-Tucker is terrific in the passing game. His footwork is pristine in the vertical set, and his hips are extremely fluid. Vera-Tucker has the ability to play tackle or guard at the next level. The Chargers have to protect Justin Herbert better in 2021, making Vera-Tucker an ideal selection.
14) Minnesota Vikings: Rashawn Slater, OL Northwestern- Much like Vera-Tucker, Slater has the ability to shine at guard or tackle at the next level. Slater finds work at the second level, and he’s quick to get his hands on defenders from the jump set. When you combine this with his athleticism in pass sets, Slater could be a phenomenal guard at the next level. Minnesota needs help along the interior of their offensive line, making this a perfect match, just like the selection above.
15) New England Patriots: Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan- The Patriots will likely try to trade down and acquire more assets, but they were unable to do so here. I think New England is in a “best position available,” situation wherever they wind up picking from. Therefore, they select Paye at 15.
Paye is an impactful edge rusher with versatility to win from a 3-tech and 5-tech alignment; something Bill Belichick admires in his defensive linemen.
Editor’s Note: New England looks for a veteran quarterback to start in 2021, which is why they do not select one at 15. My guess is Ryan Fitzpatrick.
16) Arizona Cardinals: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech- The Cardinals have two gigantic needs in this draft; offensive line and cornerback. Ultimately, Darrisaw makes the most sense at this spot because this team is built on their offense. A top flight cornerback is not going to change their philosophy as a team. A top flight tackle could elevate their offense to new heights.
17) Las Vegas Raiders: Micah Parsons, LB Penn State- Parsons has some character concerns, which could cause him to slide a little farther than people expect. On the field, he’s a tremendous talent. He shoots gaps in the run game, he disengages from blockers, and he can rush the passer. If he’s able to deflect the character concerns during the virtual combine next month, he will rise back up mock draft boards.
Editor’s Note: Despite trying to move on from Derek Carr, this mock presumes that Carr will still be the starting quarterback in 2021.
18) *TRADE* Houston Texans via Miami Dolphins: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE Miami- Phillips has been one of my favorite studies during this draft process. His dip and bend ability for someone of his size (6’5, 258) is off the charts. His move-set as a pass rusher is pretty polished as well. Phillips can cross-chop to set up his ability to run the arch, and he can counterpunch to gain leverage on opposing tackles.
19) Washington Football Team: Kadarius Toney, WR Florida- Toney is the media darling of this year’s draft, and for good reason. His footwork is outstanding throughout his routes, which allows him to separate against all types of coverages. Toney is dynamic with the ball in his hands as well. He has established himself as the “best of the rest,” at the receiver position. Washington scoops him up to play opposite Terry McLaurin.
Editor’s Note: Washington starts Alex Smith or Cam Newton in 2021. Besides Sam Darnold, those are the two quarterbacks that they have been linked to the most.
20) Chicago Bears: Dillon Radunz, OT North Dakota State- Even though the Bears need a quarterback, they also need help at the tackle position. Radunz has the athleticism to succeed at left or right tackle in the NFL. He needs to trust his technique more, but his ability to counterpunch and re-anchor is very strong. If he learns not to lunge for contact in the vertical set, he should be a quality left tackle in the NFL.
Editor’s Note: The Bears will probably select Mac Jones here if they miss out on quarterbacks in free agency. Mac Jones is not high on my personal board, which is why he’s not the choice here. If I ran Chicago, I would enter a rebuild. Offensively, this roster is not built to compete for a championship anytime soon. If the running game and the defense carry Chicago into a playoff spot in 2021, that’s great. If not, trade everything with value, and try again in a few years.
21) Indianapolis Colts: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech- Following the Colts trading for Carson Wentz, they will likely address their left tackle issue in free agency. This puts them in a “best player available,” situation at 21. In this mock draft, that “BPA,” is Caleb Farley by a mile.
Farley’s ability in man coverage makes him worthy of a top 15 selection. His injury concerns had him slide, which could happen on the day of the actual draft as well. Having said that, Indianapolis reaps the benefits and takes a top flight cornerback prospect at 21.
22) Tennessee Titans: Wyatt Davis, IOL Ohio State- Tennessee’s offensive line struggled during the 2020 season, particularly along the interior. This is a unit that likes to run the ball, making Wyatt Davis an ideal fit for them. Davis is a mauler in the run game. He’s physical at the point of attack, and he’s athletic enough to pull and be the lead blocker. For a run heavy team like Tennessee, Davis is very worthy of a first round selection.
23) New York Jets (via Seahawks): Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia- Ojulari is an elite player off the edge. His ability to successfully run the arch is fantastic. Ojulari has phenomenal hip and ankle flexibility, allowing him to excel and dipping and bending past the opposing tackle. The Jets need a true threat off the edge, and Ojulari is just that.
24) *TRADE* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Steelers): Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami- Tampa Bay will remain in “win now,” mode for as long as Tom Brady is under center. Unfortunately, the possibility of Brady playing longer than this current contract could lead to Shaq Barrett walking in free agency. If I were running the show, I would let Barrett secure the bag, while using assets to trade up for one of the talented edge rushers near the top of this draft.
25) Jacksonville Jaguars (via Rams): Pat Freiermuth, TE Penn State- Jacksonville needs to continue building their offense, even after the selection of Lawrence at the top. Freiermuth is one of two stud tight end prospects in this draft class. His ability to contribute as a blocker, combined with his smarts as a route runner, make him an ideal target for a lot of teams in the back end of round one.
26) Cleveland Browns: Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa- Collins is a perfect fit for the Browns in the back end of round one because he takes care of two issues. The Browns need multidimensional players at the second level of their defense. They also need pass rushers to compliment Myles Garrett, and Collins can generate pressure off the edge.
27) Baltimore Ravens: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU- The Ravens seem committed to expanding their playbook in 2021 and becoming more of a balanced attack. Marshall would help their passing attack, while simultaneously not sacrificing their identity. Marshall wins down the field with his size and long strides, and he’s terrific at securing 50/50 throws. He’s a great fit for the Ravens’ offense.
28) *TRADE* New York Jets (via Saints): Najee Harris, RB Alabama– The Sam Darnold trade has arrived! There are a number of teams that will be bidding on Darnold because of the untapped potential many feel he has. I think the team best built to make a successful quarterback out of Darnold is New Orleans. He’s a perfect fit in Sean Payton’s system, the offensive line is top notch, and Michael Thomas is a true number one receiver.
With this selection, the Jets are able to add a “bell cow,” and a true number one running back. Najee Harris can do it all, and will thrive in Mike Lafluer’s offense because he’s significantly more athletic than scouts give him credit for.
29) Green Bay Packers: Christian Barmore, IDL Alabama- Packers fans are not going to be thrilled that this selection is defense, and not offense. However, the wide receiver class is loaded. The interior defensive line group, which is something Green Bay must also address, is subpar. Barmore is a more valuable selection here because the Packers can get an offensive contributor with talent on day two.
30) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (via Bills): Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas- If the Bengals take a pass catcher with their first round pick, they should try and trade back into round one to solidify their offensive line. Cosmi has the athleticism and footwork to prevent opposing edge players from successfully running the arch. He needs to fill out his frame, but he has the potential to be a starting left tackle at the next level.
31) Kansas City Chiefs: Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan- Well, this is the least surprising move of round one. Kansas City could have selected anything on the offensive line and justified it, but the choice for a tackle is because of Mitchell Schwartz. Schwartz does not have a contract for the upcoming year, and the Chiefs need to start looking at cost efficient ways to build their roster. A young, promising tackle like Mayfield can be molded into a starting tackle on the left or right side.
32) *TRADE* Pittsburgh Steelers (via Buccaneers): Creed Humphrey, IOL Oklahoma- Humphrey is a versatile player that can excel at guard or center because of his intelligence and competitive fire. He’s physical, and he’s able to gain leverage because his punch packs a wallop. Humphrey immediately bolsters the interior of Pittsburgh’s offensive line.
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) Miami Dolphins trade the #3, #18 and #36 overall selections, a 2022 second round pick, QB Tua Tagovailoa and LB Jerome Baker to the Houston Texans for Deshaun Watson.
2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade the #32, #95 and a 2022 3rd Round Selection to the Pittsburgh Steelers for the #24 overall selection.
3) New Orleans Saints trade the 28th overall selection to the New York Jets for Sam Darnold and the 129th overall selection.
4) Cincinnati Bengals trade the #38, #101 and #165 to the Buffalo Bills for the #30 and #198.
ROUND TWO
33) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jevon Holland, FS Oregon- Holland is my top safety because he has the versatility to play man coverage in the slot, as well as the instincts to contribute from the single high position.
34) New York Jets: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB Syracuse- The Jets will look for long, athletic corners with size for Robert Saleh’s cover three defense. That is Melifonwu in a nutshell.
35) Atlanta Falcons: Travis Etienne, RB Clemson- Etienne is perfect for the Falcons offense. He’s a true “home run hitter,” and he can contribute in the passing game.
36) *TRADE* Houston Texans (from Dolphins via Texans): Trevon Moehrig, FS TCU- The Texans select a starting safety with their final pick from the Deshaun Watson haul.
37) Philadelphia Eagles: Dylan Moses, LB Alabama- Moses is one of the smartest players I have ever seen on film. Don’t sleep on him just because he struggled at times during a challenging year due to Covid.
38) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (via Bengals): Eric Stokes, CB Georgia- Stokes is an aggressive cornerback, and you see it with the way he is able to read and react from off coverage. However, Sean McDermott will have to coach him up in man coverage, because he has a tendency to grab.
39) *TRADE* Tennessee Titans (via Panthers): Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota- Tennessee is likely losing Corey Davis this offseason. Bateman is another strong YAC player that can stretch the field and possesses quality hands. He would thrive in Tennessee’s offense.
40) Denver Broncos: Josh Myers, IOL Ohio State- Even in one season of work, it is clear that Lloyd Cushenberry III is not the answer at center. Myers is a smart player who can be a “plug and play,” guy at the center position from day one.
41) Detroit Lions: Levi Onwuzurike, IDL Washington- Onwuzurike is higher on other boards than my own. Having said that, he has the athleticism and “quick twitch,” ability to impact the game as a pass rusher for quite some time.
42) New York Giants: Patrick Jones II, EDGE Pittsburgh- Unlike Onwuzurike, I am higher on Jones than most. He’s not a great athlete, but he has a strong move set, and he understands how to be successful as a pass rusher.
43) San Francisco 49ers: Landon Dickerson, IOL Alabama- The ultimate football guy. Dickerson famously dressed for the national title game, and took a snap late in the game, having torn his ACL a month earlier. On the field, he has experience all along the offensive line and can start wherever and whenever you need him to. Told ya, the ultimate football guy.
44) Dallas Cowboys: Tevin Jenkins, OT Oklahoma State- The success that Tevin Jenkins had during Senior Bowl week should make him a day two lock. Dallas has to address their often injured offensive line if they wish to get back to their winning ways.
45) Jacksonville Jaguars (via Vikings): Greg Newsome II, CB Northwestern- Newsome has good length and the smarts to excel in off coverage. Despite some footwork deficiencies, he’s a quality day two option at cornerback.
46) New England Patriots: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR USC- I don’t trust this current Patriots regime to develop young receivers, but they need pass catchers so desperately.
47) Los Angeles Chargers: Nico Collins, WR Michigan- Collins is a perfect replacement for Mike Williams, who is most likely walking at the end of his contract.
48) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (via Raiders): James Hudson, OL Cincinnati- Seattle moves up to take a versatile offensive linemen in an attempt to get Russell Wilson some help up front
49) Arizona Cardinals: Aaron Robinson, CB UCF- Robinson translates as an excellent nickel corner, who has the ability to go outside because of his length, as well as his skills in press coverage.
50) Miami Dolphins: Nick Bolton, LB Missouri- Bolton is a big time athlete with the ability to get home as a pass rusher. He’s a similar player to Micah Parsons, just with a slightly smaller frame.
51) Washington Football Team: Pete Werner, LB Ohio State- Washington needs an anchor in the middle of their linebacking core. Werner has the intelligence, athleticism and competitive fire to be a three down linebacker at the next level.
52) Chicago Bears: Dyami Brown, WR North Carolina- With receivers flying off the board, Chicago takes Dyami Brown to give themselves a true deep threat.
53) *TRADE* Carolina Panthers (via Titans): Paulson Adebo, CB Stanford- Adebo is still learning the cornerback position. However, he looks very strong in off coverage and he has terrific ball skills. Adebo can be “coached up,” and become a solid number two corner.
54) Indianapolis Colts: Joe Tryon, EDGE Washington- The Colts desperately need talent off the edge. Tryon has some good athleticism off the edge, but he will have to polish his move-set to be more than just a sub-package player in the NFL.
55) Pittsburgh Steelers: Javonte Williams, RB North Carolina- Pittsburgh really struggled to run the ball effectively this year, and it made their offense one dimensional. Williams is a powerful runner that attacks defenders and has excellent balance between the tackles. He’s a very nice fit in Pittsburgh.
56) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (via Seahawks): Jay Tufele, IDL USC- Tufele is a quality one-tech that will shine more in his ability to create stats for others, rather than himself. Vegas needs someone like him in the middle of the defense.
57) Los Angeles Rams: Jabril Cox, LB LSU- There are a few three down linebackers projected to go on day two that I really like. Cox has great athleticism and he’s a really good player in coverage.
58) Baltimore Ravens: Jackson Carmen, OL Clemson- Carmen is a brick house that excels in the run game. This is a little early for him to come off the board, but he’s a perfect fit for Baltimore.
59) Cleveland Browns: Daviyon Nixon, IDL Iowa- Both of Cleveland’s starting interior defensive linemen could depart this offseason. Nixon’s athleticism and ability to win reps in the passing game would make him a nice addition to Cleveland’s front.
60) New Orleans Saints: Asante Samuel Jr., CB Florida State- Samuel is an interesting prospect because he flashes elite mirror skills in man coverage, but struggles in his off coverage technique. His best fit is as a nickel corner immediately, which New Orleans will need after they move Chauncey Gardner-Johnson back to safety this offseason.
61) Buffalo Bills: Joseph Ossai, EDGE Texas- Ossai will be a sub-package player the majority of his career because of his size. Nevertheless, Sean McDermott excels at putting defensive players in a position to succeed.
62) Green Bay Packers: Amari Rodgers, WR Clemson- Here is Green Bay’s selection of the pass catcher they desire. Amari Rodgers may not be this high on other scouts’ draft board, but all he does is win routes. He’s smart, his footwork and short area quickness are lethal, and he’s dynamic from the slot position. He would be a great compliment to Davante Adams.
63) Kansas City Chiefs: Tutu Atwell, WR Louisville- Mecole Hardman has struggled as a true number two receiver. Tutu Atwell has the speed and deep threat ability to be dynamic in Kansas City’s offense.
64) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Michael Carter, RB North Carolina- Should the Buccaneers opt to move on from the Fournette/RoJo combination (which would be wise, despite their late season success), Michael Carter’s ability in the passing game would make him a terrific chess piece for Tom Brady next season.
TRADES IN ROUND TWO
1) Tennessee Titans trade the #53 and #85 to the Carolina Panthers for the #39 and #168.
2) Seattle Seahawks trade the #56 and a 2022 3rd round selection to the Las Vegas Raiders for the #48 and a 2022 5th round selection.
Jordan Katz’s Prediction Style 2021 NFL Mock Draft: 2.0
This is my prediction style mock draft. The goal with these mocks is to give my guesses on what I think all 32 teams would do if the draft was tomorrow. I also have a personal mock draft (https://draftstock.net/2021/01/04/what-would-i-do-2021-nfl-mock-draft-2-0/). In that style, I take control of all 32 teams, and make the selections that I feel fit them best. My evaluation of players and where they fit best can be found there. This mock is strictly attempting to get every selection correctly.
ROUND ONE
1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson- No analysis needed here. Over the next few months there will be debates between Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence from the media to keep things interest. None of it will change the fact that Lawrence will be the first name called on April 29th.
2) New York Jets: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State- The Jets hold the keys to the entire draft. If they choose to stick with Sam Darnold, they can haul a king’s ransom for this pick. If they want a quarterback at two, Miami will be the recipient of a bevy of trade offers.
Right now, my guess is the Jets take Fields because of who they choose to hire as their next Head Coach. Outside of Titans Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith, I think all the other potential candidates would want “their guy,” at quarterback.
3) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (from Dolphins via Texans): Penei Sewell, OT Oregon- Cincinnati is the most obvious team to aggressively pursue trading up for Penei Sewell. What separates them from other suitors is that the Dolphins could keep a top five selection by trading with the Bengals. Joe Burrow gets his franchise left tackle to protect his blindside.
4) Atlanta Falcons: Zach Wilson, QB BYU- Atlanta’s misfortunes in 2020 have left them in a prime position to select the heir to Matt Ryan’s throne. Zach Wilson is being billed as a carbon copy of Patrick Mahomes because of his play style and ability to improvise. Guess who also sat in their first year to learn the finer points of quarterback play in the NFL…
5) *TRADE* Miami Dolphins (via Bengals): DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama- Unless the Dolphins have Ja’Marr Chase significantly higher on their draft board, it makes sense to get Tua Tagovailoa a target he’s already familiar with. Smith follows up what should be a Heisman trophy winning season with a top five selection.
6) Philadelphia Eagles: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU- Jalen Hurts earned the right to go into 2021 as the Eagles’ starting quarterback. If he’s going to be successful, the Eagles need a true number one receiver. Chase is going to regain the buzz he had preseason during the draft process.
7) Detroit Lions: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State- The Lions seem committed to moving on from Matthew Stafford this offseason, which means they’re in a prime spot to select a quarterback. Lance may be QB4, but he’s still a top 10 lock. At 20 years old, he also might possess the most upside of any quarterback not named Lawrence.
8) *TRADE* Arizona Cardinals (via Panthers): Kyle Pitts, TE Florida- If the Panthers miss on the top quarterbacks, they are a trade down candidate. Talented players are bound to fall as quarterbacks rise. If Arizona gets the opportunity to move up for an offensive chess piece like Kyle Pitts, you better believe that the front office and coaching staff will do everything in their power to make it happen.
9) Denver Broncos: Rashawn Slater, OL Northwestern- In my personal mock, where I take control of all 32 teams (https://draftstock.net/2021/01/04/what-would-i-do-2021-nfl-mock-draft-2-0/), I wrote about Slater’s upside as a guard at the next level. My gut tells me NFL teams will agree, and look at him as a potential all-pro guard. That’s what Denver does here.
10) Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama- Last year, Jerry Jones took the “sexy pick” of CeeDee Lamb, despite having needs in other areas. He selects the sexy pick again here, but this time, it’s at a position of need.
Surtain is not my top cornerback, but I think his ability in multiple schemes will make him the top cornerback off the board in a few months.
11) New York Giants: Micah Parsons, ILB Penn State- Parsons falling all the way to 11?! How could this happen? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. He’s a phenomenal talent, but linebackers don’t possess the value they once had. It’s true that the Giants get a steal here with one of the best players in this draft. However, don’t be shocked if Parsons goes lower than you expect in a few months.
12) San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech- Assuming San Francisco acquires a quarterback before the draft (and I would not be so sure that’s the case), they are an easy candidate to select one of the top corners. Richard Sherman and Jason Verrertt are likely out the door, leaving a gaping hole in the secondary that must be filled.
13) Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech- There are no trade partners for the Chargers here because of two moves inside the top 10. However, Darrisaw solidifying their tackle spot is a fine consolation prize. I would rather see him at right tackle, but many think he’s a quality left tackle at the next level and will become better in the vertical set as he progresses.
14) Minnesota Vikings: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami- Rousseau’s physical gifts have him atop many draft boards despite not playing in 2020. A team like Minnesota could gamble on him at 14 because they’ve had success with raw but talented EDGE rushers in the past under Head Coach Mike Zimmer.
15) New England Patriots: Mac Jones, QB Alabama- Well, Patriots fans won’t like this one. Bill Belichick is going to try to find a young quarterback to groom this offseason. Chances are, it’s Jimmy Garoppolo after San Francisco let’s him go. Having said that, would you be shocked if it’s a quarterback that his best buddy Nick Saban has turned into a Heisman trophy finalist?
16) *TRADE* Carolina Panthers (via Cardinals): Kwity Paye, EDGE/DL Michigan- Carolina is a tough team to predict if they do not select a quarterback. Should they slide down the board to collect assets, BPA (best player available) makes the most sense. Paye lining up opposite of Brian Burns is also a nightmare for opposing defenses.
17) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (via Raiders): Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama- One of the big three wide receivers will slide on draft day, just like CeeDee Lamb did last year. If that player makes it past the Patriots at 15, expect a bidding war to arise from teams farther down the draft board. Chicago pays the highest price and allows Vegas to stay in range for the player they want.
18) Miami Dolphins: Najee Harris, RB Alabama- Selecting running backs in round one has become taboo, but I think Miami will look for a bell cow with their second first round selection. Both Harris and Etienne are beyond elite and well deserving of being selections that “buck the recent trend.”
19) Washington Football Team: Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota- Washington’s playoff appearance will make it challenging for them to select a quarterback of the future in this draft. However, they could easily acquire a younger veteran in the offseason and add a weapon opposite Terry McLaurin with this first round selection.
20) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (via Bears): Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB Notre Dame- If the Raiders had moved down further, they would’ve missed on the three down linebacker they need at the second level of their defense. That’s why they took the Bears’ offer instead of one further down the board with a bigger return according to the trade value chart.
21) Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia- Ojulari is not projected to be a round one selection right now. Nevertheless. following an incredible bowl game, and what should be a strong draft process, he could easily wind up in the top 32 selections. Jacksonville needs to get to the passer better in 2021, and Ojulari can help do that.
22) Indianapolis Colts: Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan- Even though the Colts have a ton of cap space, Anthony Castonzo is likely a cap casualty this offseason. The Colts offensive line was really good in his absence, and he’s a free cut of 16 million dollars off the books.
Mayfield is best at right tackle, but my gut tells me a team will slot him in at left tackle and hope his lower body technique continues to improve.
23) Cleveland Browns: Jay Tufele, IDL USC- The Browns are set to lose Larry Ogunjobi to free agency, and Sheldon Richardson could be a cap casualty as well. Tufele is the top interior linemen in the class because he produces as a 1-tech and a 3-tech.
24) Tennessee Titans: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU- Much like in my personal mock, my rationale for the Titans selecting a wide receiver is simple. Their receiving core after Corey Davis is suspect, and I can’t see them giving Davis a big contract off of one solid season. Marshall steps in and becomes their number two wide out from day one.
25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas- Donovan Smith may have been paid this offseason, but he was dreadful for most of the year. Cosmi’s athleticism and ability to cut off edge rushers from successfully running the arch will be tempting for a team that throws as much as the Bucs do.
26) Baltimore Ravens: Wyatt Davis, IOL Ohio State- Look for Baltimore to try and trade out of round one come April. After the top guys, this draft will have a lot of polarizing opinions because of the oddity that was the collegiate football season.
Should the Ravens be stuck in this spot, addressing the interior of their offensive line makes a lot of sense. Wyatt Davis is the perfect scheme fit because of how physical he is in the run game.
27) New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks: Joseph Ossai, EDGE Texas- Ossai is still learning the finer points of the position, but he’s shown the ability to line up and succeed from the strong and weak sides on the defensive front. The Jets need edge rushers, making Ossai an easy selection here.
28) Pittsburgh Steelers: Kyle Trask, QB Florida- The Steelers will aggressively pursue young reclamation projects at the quarterback position during the offseason. Even though they likely land one, part of doing mock drafts is playing out different scenarios.
Therefore, assuming they strike out before draft day, the Steelers could get aggressive in their pursuit for Mac Jones or Kyle Trask. Both players would benefit from sitting behind Ben Roethlisberger and learning how to go through multiple reads against NFL coverages.
29) New Orleans Saints: Eric Stokes, CB Georgia- Janoris Jenkins has looked solid at times this offseason, but he’s aging and could be a cap cut somewhere in the next two years. Stokes is strong in press-bail, and breaks out of his T-Step with quickness and poise.
30) Buffalo Bills: Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL USC- Buffalo’s interior offensive line play could be bolstered this offseason. Vera-Tucker leads a group of plug and play starters at guard that will come off the board in the 25-50 range of this year’s draft.
31) Green Bay Packers: Kadarius Toney, WR Florida- Aaron Rodgers has done a tremendous job turning Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling into decent players. Despite this, a real threat opposite Davante Adams would take this offense to a different level. Toney’s ability with the ball in his hands would add a different dimension to the Packers’ offense.
32) Kansas City Chiefs: Dylan Moses, ILB Alabama- Defensive Coordinator Steve Spanguolo loves smart players with good instincts because he asks a lot of his defense in terms of schemes. Moses might have lost the buzz he had around him from a few months ago, but he’s an elite football mind at the linebacker position. “Spags,” would love him in the middle of the defense.
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) Cincinnati Bengals trade the #5, #37 and a 2022 3rd round pick to the Miami Dolphins for the #3 and a 2022 5th round pick.
2) Arizona Cardinals trade the #16 and #48 to the Carolina Panthers for the #8 and a 2022 4th round pick.
3) Chicago Bears trade the #20 and #83 to the Las Vegas Raiders for the 17th Overall Selection.
Jordan Katz 2021 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: “What I Would Do”
Mock Draft Season is upon us! As of this moment, a little over half the league has their eyes set on the offseason, and subsequently, the NFL Draft. Even though many have published mock drafts already, this is the true start of #MockDraftSZN.
By now, scouts and draft experts have their opinions of the big name guys in the process. Now it’s true that evaluations on almost all players will continue to change. Many analysts have only begun their process into these draft prospects. However, with the college season just about done, there is enough to start having concrete opinions on players.
For those that are viewing my work for the first time, there are a few things you should know about my mocks. I produce two kinds of mock drafts; a personal and a prediction. The reason for this is simply transparency for the viewer. When you read a person’s mock draft, you might not be aware of what went into their decision. Are they trying to get the selection correct? Do they have information on a player that is going to rise, so they stuck them with a team that fits to get a reaction from readers? Is it their opinion of the player, the scheme fit, or both, that drove the decision towards the selection?
As you can see by the title, this is what I would do if I were in charge of all 32 teams. The selections are based on where I currently have certain players ranked, as well as what I think teams will need to address during this upcoming offseason. Any trades that are made are trades that I believe will benefit both teams.
With that being said, it is my pleasure to welcome y’all to the REAL official start of DraftSZN. Let’s cook.
ROUND ONE
1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson- About five years ago, I got a phone call from one of my best friends telling me to take a look at this high school Quarterback prospect from Georgia. “He’s a can’t miss prospect,” JP told me. It’s safe to say that one collegiate career later, Lawrence lived up to that billing.
Lawrence has the physical attributes to dominate this league for two decades. His arm talent is off the charts. He possesses ridiculous athleticism for someone who is 6’6. Lawrence can make throws at all three levels of the field, with precision and zip behind the throw. Jacksonville may not have won a lot in recent memory, but this is the kind of player that changes your franchise.
2) New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB BYU- Justin Fields dominated during the College Football Playoff game against Clemson. He showed deep ball accuracy, multiple reads, and elite toughness after taking a shot to the ribs in the first half.
Having said that, my QB2 remains Zach Wilson. Wilson has a big arm, along with zero fear when letting it rip. He throws a very catchable 50/50 ball that’s often in the right spot for his receiver. Wilson can improvise with the best of them, and has tremendous accuracy on the move.
There are definitely some concerns about his anticipation and willingness to attempt any throw in any window. His footwork could be cleaned up as well.
Nevertheless, Wilson is the new modern day gunslinger that NFL teams are falling in love with.
3) *TRADE* Detroit Lions (from Dolphins via Texans): Justin Fields, QB Ohio State- When he unlocks his hips in his throw, Justin Fields can sling it with the best of them. He’s a dual threat quarterback with really good arm talent. The concern with Fields is that he loses his technique when facing some pressure. If he’s too stiff in his lower body, he’s often high and wide with throws. This is why he’s still my QB3 despite a phenomenal bowl game.
However, that doesn’t make Fields a bad prospect. His upside is still tremendous, which is why Detroit jumps Atlanta to select him.
4) Atlanta Falcons: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon- While the Falcons have Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary, neither have been overly impressive in recent memory. Penei Sewell is a can’t miss offensive tackle prospect because of his elite footwork and athleticism. His kickslide in the vertical set is so clean and his hips are so fluid. Sewell is the best player in the class not named Lawrence, and the correct selection for Atlanta if the first three picks are quarterbacks.
5) Cincinnati Bengals: Micah Parsons, ILB Penn State- Parsons sat out the 2020 campaign, but his draft status will not be affected in the slightest. A three down linebacker with elite athleticism, Parsons is built for the modern day game. What shocked me the most on tape was how effective he is as a pass rusher. His knowledge for gap assignments really helps him in both the run and pass game. Even though the Bengals miss on their franchise left tackle, they still select one of the best players in this draft.
6) Philadelphia Eagles: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU- Chase is not the top receiver on my board, but he’s the exact kind of player the Eagles need. I think Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith have higher ceilings than Chase. Waddle is a big time burner with elite quickness, and Smith can do it all.
Despite this, Chase is the guy the Eagles receiving core needs because he has the highest floor of the three players. He’s terrific at the catch point and he’s awesome at the line of scrimmage against tight coverage.
7) *TRADE* Miami Dolphins (from Lions): Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama- Should they trade down, pairing one of the Alabama receivers with Tua Tagovailoa is the obvious answer for Miami. The selection of Waddle over Smith has more to do with the makeup of the Dolphins receiving core and offense.
Jaylen Waddle has dynamic playmaking ability from the slot. He stretches the field, he’s elite with the ball in his hands, and his route tree from the slot is diverse. Waddle is the player that the Dolphins need to add to their receiving core this offseason.
8) Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State- Carolina’s quarterback of the future is not Teddy Bridgewater. In fact, he might not be the quarterback of the present in 2021. Reports from Carolina were that former GM Marty Hurney was canned because of his philosophical differences with Head Coach Matt Rhule. I think it’s safe to assume that those differences revolve around the quarterback position.
Lance is smart with the football, he has the ability to beat you with his legs, and he can stretch the defense because he has a cannon for an arm. Plus, he’s only 20 years old. Lance has some big time upside.
9) Denver Broncos: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina- The competition for the top cornerback off the board in April is just as competitive as the race to be the top wide receiver taken. Jaycee Horn, Caleb Farley and Patrick Surtain II, all have similar strengths and skill sets. All three are best in man coverage. They use their length extremely well in different ways.
What separates Horn for me has more to do with the other two players. Farley’s game is the most polished, but he has durability concerns. Surtain is very strong in off-man coverage, but he’s not as strong as the other two in tight man-to-man.
Horn is physical and he breaks on the ball extremely well. He’s a terrific fit in the Broncos’ defense.
10) Dallas Cowboys: Kwity Paye, DL Michigan- Paye is one of the biggest risers on draft boards from September to now. He has a lethal first step and the ability to win from multiple places along the defensive front. The Cowboys need a pass rusher to compliment Demarcus Lawrence, making Paye the easy selection here.
11) New York Giants: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida- Pitts could wind up as my top pass catcher off the board if the fit is right. He’s the best pass catcher in the class and the best tight end prospect I have ever scouted. Pitts can beat corners in tight coverage with elite quickness and a great release. Linebackers can’t stay with him, and defensive backs are not physical enough to guard him. Pitts is going to dominate the NFL for years to come.
12) *TRADE* Tennessee Titans (from Chargers): DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama- The Chargers are a good “trade back,” candidate in this draft because they need assets to fill out their roster. The Titans chose not to pick up the option on Corey Davis, which means they will either need to tag him, overpay for one year of production, or find his replacement in the draft. Even though the draft is loaded with receiving talent, there is a sizable gap between the big three and the rest of the group. To me, this trade makes a lot of sense both ways.
13) San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech- Back to back cornerbacks here. The Niners are a candidate to trade up for a quarterback in the next few months. However, in this scenario they were unable to do so, which puts cornerback atop their wishlist.
Farley would be the first cornerback off the board if he had a clean bill of health. He’s the best of the big three at mirroring opposing receivers, he’s able to press successfully, and his footwork in his backpedal is strong. If he’s able to stay healthy, he can be a star at the next level.
14) Minnesota Vikings: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech- Darrisaw is similar to Rashawn Slater in the sense that system is key for his success. I think Darrisaw has elite potential at right tackle because of his ability in the run game. He drives opponents to the turf, he’s a beast at the second level, and his first step allows him to gain leverage easily. For a team that runs the ball as much as Minnesota does, Darrisaw is a home run selection.
15) New England Patriots: Rashawn Slater, OL Northwestern- Rashawn Slater is a reincarnation of the “Zack Martin,” dilemma from a few years ago. He could be a really solid tackle at the next level. He’s athletic, his hips are fluid, and he seals defenders really well in the run game.
Or, a team could take his athleticism and stick him at guard. Slater’s strikes do not always land in the vertical set, but he gains leverage really easily in the jump set. This is what Zack Martin was. Slater could be an elite guard at the next level.
16) Arizona Cardinals: Dillon Radunz, OT North Dakota State- This is a little high for Radunz. Nevertheless, Arizona needs athletes up front for their system, and Radunz is a big time athlete. His kickslide is terrific and he packs a better counterpunch than some of the other athletic tackles in this draft. If Radunz has a quality Senior Bowl week, he could solidify himself as a top 40 selection.
17) Las Vegas Raiders: Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama- Vegas has selected a lot of cornerbacks early in drafts recently, but all of them have struggled. The back end of this defense is a disaster. Surtain’s ability to mirror, as well as his quickness when driving on the football, should help him become the number one cornerback that Vegas is missing.
18) Miami Dolphins: Creed Humphrey, IOL Oklahoma- While Wyatt Davis is slightly ahead of Humphrey on my personal board, Humphrey is a better fit for the Dolphins. He’s better in pass protection and has the ability to play center or guard at the next level. With Miami failing to find a trade partner here, they continue to build their offensive line.
19) Washington Football Team: Chris Olave, WR Ohio State- With Washington outside of striking distance to move up for a quarterback, they’ll most likely look to bring in a young quarterback like Sam Darnold or Mitch Trubisky to compete with Alex Smith. Therefore, they move to a different need; getting Terry McLaurin some help.
Olave is a “jack of all trades,” kind of receiver. His route running ability is ridiculous for a collegiate wide receiver. Adding him opposite McLaurin would create a lot of matchup problems for opposing defenses.
20) Chicago Bears: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU- Allen Robinson is gone during this offseason, which means the top need on Chicago’s wish list is a wide receiver. Sure, the quarterback position is also a possibility. However, my guess is either a franchise tag for Mitch Trubisky, or a veteran via free agency or trade.
Marshall is one of the more interesting prospects in the draft because he’s not getting the buzz he deserves. At 6’3, Marshall wins down the field with long strides, a good release off the line, and the ability to haul in the majority of 50/50 balls. Marshall should be a first round guy come April.
21) Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia- Jacksonville needs talent on defense regardless of the position. Ojulari is just that. He’s a bit undersized as a straight edge rusher, but he’s terrific at running the arch. He has a bevy of moves too, which makes him a really interesting prospect.
22) Indianapolis Colts: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami- At 6’5, Rousseau has elite size and athleticism. His technique, however, needs some cleaning up. Rousseau has a lot of upside, but sitting out 2020 puts his draft stock in a precarious situation. Make no mistake, he’s not the only player in this spot.
With so many players sitting out the year, there will be a lot of gambles by GM’s on upside. Rousseau is one of those gambles. If you take him, you need to have a good foundation in place already. A team like the Colts is built to take one of those risks.
23) Cleveland Browns: Dylan Moses, ILB Alabama- The buzz on Moses has cooled, but I’m still a firm believer in what he can be at the next level. He’s so smart and possesses great instincts. Plus, he’s a great athlete, and a three down linebacker at the next level. For me, Moses is still firmly in round one.
24) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers (from Titans): Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas- Cosmi struggles with power rushers, but he’s a big time athlete for the tackle position. Whoever, the Chargers next coach is will use some tempo with this loaded offense. The Chargers need a true left tackle, making Cosmi a very good fit.
25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Najee Harris, RB Alabama- The Bucs are still going to be “all-in,” in 2021. With two feature running backs available, and a desperate need for a real running game, the Bucs seem like the obvious team to take Harris or Travis Etienne in round one.
I have Harris higher on my board because of his ability between the tackles, as well as his balance through contact.
26) Baltimore Ravens: Wyatt Davis, IOL Ohio State- Davis is a mauler up front. He gains leverage with good grip strength, and drives defenders with a powerful lower body. Davis is a perfect fit for a run heavy offense like the Ravens.
27) *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (from Jets via Seahawks): Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB Notre Dame- If General Manager Joe Douglas does not trade out of the number two overall selection, you can bet your bank account that he will try to trade out of the 27th pick for more assets. Owusu-Koramoah has no business still being on the board, and Philly desperately needs a three down player to command the second level of their defense. This was an easy call both ways.
28) Pittsburgh Steelers: Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL USC- Vera-Tucker is an interesting study because he does not do anything well, but also isn’t poor in a specific area. His feet are occasionally heavy, but he’s an effective pass blocker because he plays with good pad level and gains leverage with timely strikes. He’s not a finisher in the run game, but he walls off defenders well. He’s a plug and play left guard, which is exactly what the Steelers need.
29) New Orleans Saints: Kadarius Toney, WR Florida- When Drew Brees hangs it up in a few weeks, Head Coach Sean Payton will have to come to the realization that his receiving core cannot just be Michael Thomas. Toney is a perfect fit in Payton’s offense because of his ability with the ball in his hands.
30) Buffalo Bills: Eric Stokes, CB Georgia- Stokes is often at the line of scrimmage, and very willing to command the opposing team’s top target. He’s best in press-bail, but his footwork is also strong in off-coverage. Head Coach Sean McDermott would love Stokes’ skill set for his defense.
31) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (via Packers): Pat Freiermuth, TE Penn State- “Baby Gronk,” is one of my favorite players in the draft. He’s terrific at the catch point, he’s physical in his route, and he’s an excellent blocker. Cincinnati trades up for a middle of the field threat that can contribute in the red zone.
32) Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Myers, IOL Ohio State- It’s not a sexy pick, but the Chiefs’ offensive line has regressed during the second half of the season. Josh Myers can play center or guard, and his fluidity in his hips, as well as his footwork, make him a really interesting top 40 selection.
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) Detroit Lions trade the #7, #39, a 2022 2nd Round Pick and a 2022 3rd Round Pick to the Miami Dolphins for the #3 and a 2022 4th Round Pick.
2) Tennessee Titans trade the #24, #88 and a 2022 1st Round Pick to the Los Angeles Chargers for the #12 Overall Selection.
3) Philadelphia Eagles trade the #38 and #70 to the New York Jets for the #27 and #129.
4) Cincinnati Bengals trade the #37 and #100 to the Green Bay Packers for the #31 Overall Selection
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