Jordan Katz’s NFL Mock Draft 4.0: Final

Posted on April 22, 2024 Updated on April 25, 2024

Zero hour is upon us and it is officially NFL Draft week! That means it is time for the final installment of our Mock Draft SZN.

I have made my typical mock trades in round one, and only round one because mocking trades in round two and beyond is impossible. There are a fair amount of changes from my most recent mock, including some surprising slides and a few different trades than I have been mocking to this point.

Let’s roll.

ROUND ONE

1) Chicago Bears (from Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB USC- Williams was the presumed number one overall pick almost all season. On draft night, the Bears will make it official. From the jump, I have said that Williams could be a generational talent if he were allowed to sit. However, that does not mean he will fail if he plays right away. The Bears have put a lot of weapons around him with the hope of those weapons helping him achieve early success.

2) Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU– Three days ago I went back to Drake Maye at this pick. At zero hour, I am going to lock in Daniels going second.

If you listen to the draft pundits talk about the debate here, they say that most people around the league have Daniels as the second quarterback off the board. The added dimension of his legs and the fact that he anticipates throwing windows better than Maye elevate him in the eyes of many.

3) New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB North Carolina– The Patriots are a popular trade-down candidate, and have been so for months. Here’s the problem; of the players that the Patriots have used a top 30 visit on, only Maye and Jayden Daniels are projected to go in the top 20 picks. Unless New England is wowed by an offer, they likely just pick whichever quarterback is here at three.

4) Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State- If the top 3 quarterbacks go 1-2-3, the Cardinals will hold the keys to the entire draft. They would be flooded with trade offers. The question they will have to answer is if any of the offers are worthy of them passing on drafting Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ultimately, the Cardinals likely stay put and select the generational talent in front of them. They also desperately need a number one receiver, which adds to their decision.

5) *TRADE* Minnesota Vikings (from Chargers): J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan- Minnesota is desperate to come away with one of the top quarterbacks in this draft. While they will try to move into the top three, the consolation will be to the Chargers at five for J.J. McCarthy. They simply can offer significantly more than the other teams in the conversation.

McCarthy is an odd fit for the Vikings. While he does have a lot of NFL traits, he’s inaccurate in areas where Head Coach Kevin O’Connell will want him to be successful. McCarthy struggles to complete the deep ball, and he is not great in the middle of the field either. Having said that, NFL teams love McCarthy’s arm talent, and someone is going to try to coach that talent into a quality starter.

The Trade: The Minnesota Vikings trade the #11, #23, and a 2025 3rd-round pick to the Los Angeles Chargers for the Fifth Overall Selection.

6) New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR LSU- If all four quarterbacks are off the board, wide receiver is a layup for the Giants. Now, some may argue it should be anyway, but that’s a different story. 

Nabers is the guy if the Giants go receiver. He makes plays after the catch, and his route running is polished. I think Nabers is the Giants’ top non-QB on their board, even ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.

7) Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame- The Titans have needed offensive line from day one of the draft season. Joe Alt is the premiere pass protector in the draft. His game is complete and he can play the left or right side. He also has a phenomenal collegiate resume against edge rushers.

8) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (from Falcons): Rome Odunze, WR Washington- Everyone has talked about teams like the Jets and the Bills making a move past the Bears to land Odunze. Here is my question; why wouldn’t Chicago move up one spot if they love Odunze that much? Chicago’s goal seems to be giving Caleb Williams as many weapons as possible. Moving up one spot to guarantee Rome Odunze would not cost them a lot of draft capital. It also feels like the right move given Keenan Allen’s age.

The Trade: The Chicago Bears trade the #9 and #75 to the Atlanta Falcons for the #8 and #109.

9) *TRADE* Atlanta Falcons (from Bears): Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama- Dallas Turner is the top edge rusher in the draft, and the Falcons desperately need a premiere pass rusher. They trade down, move up 30 picks in the middle of the draft, and select the player they would have taken at eight anyway.

The Trade: See Pick #8. 

10) New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia- Both Peter Schrager and Daniel Jeremiah are locked into the Jets because of their connection to Joe Douglas. Both have said that the Jets’ first goal is to move up for one of Joe Alt, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Rome Odunze. In this mock, they struck out on trading up.

The Jets’ next move would be trying to trade down, but with two trades already inside the top 10, that feels unlikely to pull off. 

That brings us to the pick. The buzz on Brock Bowers feels real, and both Schrager and Jeremiah have noted the Jets’ infatuation with Bowers. I think they have to pick him at 10 if they want him that badly.

11) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers: J.C. Latham, OT Alabama- If the Chargers do trade back, they likely select a tackle to fortify their offensive line. Latham can play right tackle from day one. He’s physical in the run game and when he can get his hands on edge rushers early in pass protection, he buries them.

The Trade: See Pick #5.

12) *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (from Broncos): Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama- If the Broncos can’t land one of the top four quarterbacks, they likely move back and try to recoup the second-rounder they lack in this draft. 12 is way too high for Michael Penix or Bo Nix. The Broncos need assets to continue building out this roster.

Philadelphia is known to get aggressive for a player they covet. James Bradberry was awful last season as the number two corner, and Darius Slay is 33 years old. This draft has two elite cover corners; Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell. The Eagles used a top-30 visit on Arnold, which is why he is the pick over Mitchell.

The Trade: The Philadelphia Eagles trade the #22, #50, and #120 to the Denver Broncos for the 12th overall selection.

13) Las Vegas Raiders: Troy Fautanu, OL Washington– The Raiders need a quarterback, but they signed Gardner Minshew to a two-year deal. Therefore, they can take a different position of need at this pick instead of reaching for a quarterback, and look for a QB later in the draft.

Fautanu can play multiple spots up front. That versatility is important for the Raiders, who will enter 2024 with a revamped offensive line from the previous year.

14) New Orleans Saints: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State- The Saints do need pass catchers as I have mentioned in my previous mocks, but they seem locked in to left tackle here in round one. Trevor Penning has been less than impressive, and this class has some elite left tackles, Fashanu being one of them.

15) Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo- This is a home run scenario for the Colts. I had them attempt to move up for Mitchell multiple times in this mock. To land a long, athletic corner with great ball skills and tremendous footwork without having to move up the board is striking gold.

16) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (from Seahawks): Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU– The Bills are going to be aggressive in pursuing a pass catcher in this draft. If they can’t move into the top 10, they will try to move into the middle of this draft for Brian Thomas Jr.

Thomas Jr is the “unsung hero,” of this receiving class. He would be a “WR1,” in most years because of his nose for the end zone and ability with the ball in his hands.

The Trade: The Buffalo Bills trade the #28, #60, and a 2025 2nd-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for the #16 and #118.

17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State- Cam Robinson is in the final year of his contract. On top of that, Anton Harrison has had his inconsistencies on the right side. Offensive tackle may be the most pressing need for the Jaguars, and somehow no one is talking about it.

Fuaga is a monster in the run game and only allowed one sack over his final two years at Oregon State. He can play the left or right side from day one.

18) Cincinnati Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia- Mims has a limited collegiate resume, but many seem to love his potential. He has a tremendous wingspan and impressive grip strength. When he gets his hands on opposing edge rushers, it’s game over. I think the opportunity for Mims to develop behind Trent Brown, or start right away if he earns it, is intriguing to Cincinnati.

19) Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State- The number one concern for the Rams at 19 is going to be pairing a pass rusher with last year’s breakout stars Kobie Turner and Byron Young. Verse collapses the pocket well and he generates a ton of QB pressures. He also put together a great athletic workout at the combine, which showed some dip-and-bend ability at the next level.

20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, IOL Duke- The Steelers tend to be very candid with us mock draft aficionados; they tend to just take the things they appear to be interested in. In this draft, that is offensive line.

Barton can play multiple spots up front, and many have him as the top-ranked interior offensive lineman in this draft class.

21) Miami Dolphins: Byron Murphy II, IDL Texas- Having lost Christian Wilkins, Byron Murphy would be an absolute steal here for the Dolphins. He immediately becomes their best interior pass rusher, and Murphy is better against the run than he is given credit for. This would be a home run scenario.

22) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Eagles): Bo Nix, QB Oregon– The 20-40 range is likely where Penix and Bo Nix wind up, which is great news for Denver given their lack of assets. It allows them to move backward and still land a player at the position they covet most in this draft.

From day one, the best system fit for Denver has been Bo Nix. He’s extremely accurate in the short to intermediate passing window, which will allow Head Coach Sean Payton to run the west coast offense he wants to run.

The Trade: See Pick #12.

23) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers (from Vikings through Browns via Texans): Xavier Worthy, WR Texas- Worthy’s 4.21 speed would be fascinating to watch in a Justin Herbert-led offense. He can take slant plays to the house, and he can be the vertical threat this offense needs. The Chargers need pass catchers and cannot come out of the first two days without at least one.

The Trade: See Pick #5.

24) Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma– The Cowboys have to get a left tackle early in this draft. Guyton may not have played a lot, but his length and ability to gain leverage at the point of attack has NFL teams salivating at what he could be. Do not be shocked if he goes higher than expected in round one.

25) Green Bay Packers: Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL Illinois– Green Bay’s first-round pick is an absolute mystery to me. They likely solidify the trenches, but which side of the ball they choose is anyone’s guess. I’m going with Newton, who can add an interior pass-rushing element next to Kenny Clark that the Packers need.

26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State- Robinson’s combine masterpiece should land him safely in the first round. He gets home off the edge by athletically running the arch to the quarterback, and his best football is unequivocally ahead of him. Robinson could wreck games as a 3-4 edge player in Head Coach Todd Bowles’s defense.

27) Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA- The run on edge rushers continues with Latu, who stumbles a bit in this mock because of medical concerns. Latu had a severe neck injury that caused him to temporarily retire from football in 2021.

However, Latu came back from the neck injury to dominate college football like he was Edge returning at the Royal Rumble (another IYKYK reference). He has the most complete move-set of the edge rushers in this class, which is why he is a round one lock despite the medical concerns.

Having said that, his athletic upside is not as high as Turner, Verse, or Robinson. When you combine that with the medical history, a projected slide is reasonable to predict.

28) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (from Bills): Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson- Wiggins has an outside chance to be the first cornerback selected. He’s an elite athlete with terrific man-cover skills from the boundary or slot position.

According to Daniel Jeremiah, no team has done more research on cornerback in this draft than the Seattle Seahawks. With the big two gone by the time they pick at 16, they trade down, recoup the second-rounder they do not have, and select “CB3.”

The Trade: See Pick #16

29) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (from Lions): Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington– Talented, well-run organizations trade down when they have limited needs in round one. Believe it or not, the Detroit Lions are now a good team that is well-run. Keep an eye on Detroit putting this pick up for sale to the highest bidder.

I mentioned earlier that Vegas could move back into round one to get their quarterback of the future instead of selecting that quarterback at 13. Penix will push for the day-one starter, but could sit behind Minshew for a year if needed.

The Trade: The Las Vegas Raiders trade the #44, #77, and a 2025 2nd-round pick to the Detroit Lions for the #29 and a 2025 3rd-round pick. 

30) Baltimore Ravens: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas- Rashod Bateman underperformed drastically last season, and Mark Andrews is on the back nine of his career. Receiver is actually a pressing need for the Ravens.

Mitchell is a contested catch monster and an elite red zone target. Plus, he wins down the field, which is important in the Ravens’ offense.

31) San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Paul, OT Houston- I think cooler heads will prevail on the Brandon Aiyuk saga, and he will ultimately re-up with the Niners. The next need for San Francisco is tackle. Right tackle is a massive need, but they really need options at both spots long-term. If an NFL career was put into golf terms, Trent Williams is playing the 17th at Sawgrass. His retirement is on the horizon.

Patrick Paul seems pretty confident that he has an early promise, and the Niners are a logical team to have made said promise. He can compete for the starting right tackle spot while eventually switching back to the left side when Williams retires.

32) Kansas City Chiefs: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa- In a draft where quarterbacks go earlier than expected, talented players fall down the draft board. The Chiefs seem destined to steal a talented player here.

DeJean put on a great workout recently, answering a lot of questions that teams had about his athleticism. His ball skills are strong, and his ability in off-coverage is excellent. Great value pick here for a team that needs secondary help. 

ROUND TWO

33) Carolina Panthers: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE Western Michigan- Perhaps the biggest late riser of the draft process is Marshawn Kneeland. He went into the combine as someone who was a likely 3rd round guy, and now he’s had top-30 visits with a lot of teams and generated some round-one buzz. Kneeland’s high motor and ability to collapse the pocket make him an interesting edge prospect at the next level.

34) New England Patriots: Troy Franklin, WR Oregon- If the Pats are going to take a quarterback third, they better give him a weapon to throw to early in round two. Franklin is a threat down the field and the Patriots have used a top-30 visit on him.

35) Arizona Cardinals: Ennis Rakestraw, Jr., CB Missouri- Arizona needs a lot, so this pick could be anything. Rakestraw is physical at the line and he stays attached to receivers when trailing them. The media is higher on him than I am, but he still should be an early day-two pick.

36) Washington Commanders: Roger Rosengarten, OL Washington- Washington could move back into the first round to ensure an offensive lineman of their choice. In this mock, Rosengarten falling to them is perfect because he likely can play multiple positions up front at the next level.

37) Los Angeles Chargers: Mike Sainristil, DB Michigan- The former Michigan Head Coach selects his first Michigan man of the 2024 draft. Sainristil has some first-round buzz, but he likely comes off the board somewhere on day two.

38) Tennessee Titans: Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M- Call me crazy, but having only Kenneth Murray along the interior of the second level does not feel like a recipe for success. Cooper is the best of a very quality off-ball linebacker class.

39) Carolina Panthers (from N.Y. Giants): Xavier Leggette, WR South Carolina- Despite the Panthers adding Diontae Johnson, they still need playmakers. Leggette is exactly that; he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands and physical in his routes as well.

40) Washington Commanders (from Chicago): Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU– Washington doubling up on offensive line is easily their best draft strategy. When you draft a quarterback high, you have to build an offensive line around them to give them the best chance to be successful. Washington’s offensive line currently stinks, and this is a great “OL,” class at the top.

41) Green Bay Packers (from N.Y. Jets): Jaden Hicks, S Washington State- Hicks is a safety who can line up at many spots and excels playing downhill. It’s hard to say who will be the first safety off the board from a below-average safety class, but Hicks has the most buzz right now, so he goes first.

42) Houston Texans (from Minnesota): Darius Robinson, IDL Missouri- The interior of Houston’s defensive line is subpar, and it lacks a pass rush. Robinson can play multiple spots up front, and he will add a necessary pass-rushing presence from the interior.

43) Atlanta Falcons: Payton Wilson, LB NC State- The second level of the Falcons’ defense is a disaster right now. Wilson can cover running backs and tight ends and is a quality tackler in space.

44) *TRADE* Detroit Lions (from Raiders): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama– I have no idea how Detroit pulled off trading down and still landing the player they likely would have selected at 29. McKinstry’s draft stock is a mystery because he did not test at the combine. I know most have him in round one, and he should go there because of his press coverage skills. However, something tells me he slides on draft day.
The Trade: See Pick #29.

45) New Orleans Saints (from Broncos): Malachi Corley, WR Western Kentucky- Corley’s ability to win from the slot is his best attribute, but a close second is his nose for the end zone. The Saints need both of these things. They also spent a top-30 visit on Corley.

46) Indianapolis Colts: Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida- Keep an eye on the Colts using an early pick on a pass catcher. Josh Downs and Alec Pierce have flashed, but the more weapons Anthony Richardson has at his disposal, the better.

47) New York Giants (from Seahawks): Max Melton, CB Rutgers- The Giants continue to revamp their secondary with this pick. Melton is competitive in man coverage and will fit nicely opposite Deonte Banks.

48) Jacksonville Jaguars: T.J. Tampa, CB Iowa State- The Jaguars could go corner in round one, but if they don’t, expect it on day two. Tampa is a lengthy corner that has really nice footwork in a multitude of coverages.

49) Cincinnati Bengals: Maason Smith, IDL LSU- Early in this draft, there will be a team that takes a chance on Smith’s elite traits and potential pass-rushing upside. Cincinnati needs help along the interior and used a top-30 visit on Smith.

50) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Eagles via Saints): Adisa Isaac, EDGE Penn State- Denver could go edge rusher as early as 12, but in this scenario, they recouped a second-rounder and did so here. Isaac had nice production in college, notching seven-and-a-half sacks last season.
The Trade: See Pick #12.

51) Pittsburgh Steelers: Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia- McConkey deserves to go in round one, so this is a steal before we analyze the pick. As far as the selection goes, Pittsburgh needs a number two receiver and a chain mover, which is exactly what McConkey does.

52) Los Angeles Rams: Dru Phillips, CB Kentucky- The Rams made a move for Tre White in the offseason, but injuries have hamstrung his career a bit. They need a secondary player early in this draft, preferably one that plays in multiple spots in coverage like Phillips.

53) Philadelphia Eagles: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona– Howie Roseman is excellent at addressing team needs a year too early rather than a minute too late. With Lane Johnson at 34 years old, offensive line is likely an early selection for the Eagles in this draft.

54) Cleveland Browns: Braden Fiske, IDL Florida State- Fiske was a major riser at the combine, putting on the best performance of any player there. He should be a day-two lock, likely to a team that needs an interior pass rusher like the Browns do.

55) Miami Dolphins: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL Oregon- Powers-Johnson is a day-one talent, but he is a center, which means he goes lower than expected. This is probably his floor in the draft; honestly, I would expect him to go higher than this. However, Miami is the recipient of a “mock,” draft day slide, and those happen all the time.

56) Dallas Cowboys: Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas- The worst-kept secret of the second day of this draft is Dallas picking a starting running back. Jonathon Brooks’s collegiate resume is better than Trey Benson’s, which is likely the difference in determining who will be “RB1.”

57) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ben Sinnott, TE Kansas State- Keep an eye on Sinnott going even higher than this. Most pundits have him as an early third-rounder, but Sinnott runs clean routes for a tight end and has met with a fair amount of teams during the draft process.

58) Green Bay Packers: Tevin Wallace, LB Kentucky- Wallace has elite potential at the next level because he’s athletic enough to cover tight ends and running backs. The Packers have a need at linebacker and used a top-30 visit on Wallace, making him a likely target on day two.

59) Houston Texans: Kamari Lassiter, CB Georgia- Lassiter can play the nickel from day one, but his athletic testing indicates that he can trail from the boundary as well. I think he’s a steal on day two.

60) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (from Bills): Zach Frazier, IOL West Virginia- Among the needs for Seattle in this draft is interior offensive line. Adding Zach Frazier at the bottom of round two would be a home-run draft scenario because he is a day-one starting center.
The Trade: See Pick #16.

61) Detroit Lions: Roman Wilson, WR Michigan- Detroit has a few upper-echelon targets in their offense, but the offense lacks depth in the pass-catching department. Roman Wilson is a savvy route runner from multiple spots, which makes him an intriguing day-two pick because he can play right away.

62) Baltimore Ravens: Cam Hunt, CB Notre Dame- The Ravens should address cornerback early in this draft. Not only is there some uncertainty around Marlon Humphrey because of his injuries, but they need a number two corner anyway.

63) San Francisco 49ers: Javon Bullard, S Georgia- I don’t know if I agree that safety is a need for the Niners, but their pre-draft meetings seem to indicate that they could go in that direction. Bullard is the biggest name in this class, but he could see a fall on draft day because he overpursues in coverage a lot.

64) Kansas City Chiefs: Ja’Lynn Polk, WR Washington- The 13th receiver in the top 64 picks is a perfect fit for the Chiefs. Polk has terrific hands and he wins contested catches because of his physicality and aforementioned hands.