Greg Little
2019 NFL Combine Winners and Losers
With the NFL Draft prospects departing from Indianapolis, it’s time for a recap on how the two days went for both sides of the ball. Even though the NFL Combine is a point of contention among the draft community, the Combine serves a purpose. It is meant to seek out weaknesses in a player, both in terms of technique that you see on the field during the drills, as well as their fluidity as an athlete.
The question that trips up scouts and analysts is how much do you weigh what you see in Indianapolis against the tape? If an offensive lineman looks stiff in the hips during the drills, do you knock him down a peg even if his tape is good? Let’s say a wide receiver shows an elite 40 time, but struggles with the 3-Cone drill. Where does that put his athletic score? Does a defensive lineman that crushes the 3-Cone get a pass if he struggles in the 10 yard split because he has bad technique on his 40 yard dash?
Regardless of your views on the combine, down here there’s always winners and losers, and you don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of that line (to paraphrase Bruce Springsteen). So with that in mind, here’s who I feel were the winners and losers of the Combine this weekend.
Day One Winners (RBs and OL)
1- Chris Lindstrom, Garrett Bradbury and Erik McCoy: The top players along the interior really stepped up and made their presence felt this weekend. Garrett Bradbury and Chris Lindstrom were big breadwinners, dominating the athletic testing and showing elite level fluidity in their hips and ankles during the drill portion of the combine. I thought Erik McCoy stayed stride for stride with Bradbury throughout the day as well, and he remained my top center in this draft. All three of these guys should be quality starters at the next level.
2- Josh Jacobs: How do you win the combine without participating? When the rest of the position group performs incredibly average. Jacobs was easily most people’s RB1, but there was some buzz around the running backs you could get in rounds two and three, like Damien Harris, David Montgomery and others.
However, none of the potential three down backs tested well enough to challenge Jacobs for the top spot. This makes Josh Jacobs even more of a commodity come April, and a potential Top 20 lock.
3- Miles Sanders and Justice Hill: Keeping in mind the aforementioned analysis about the running backs, there were two players that did shine at the position. Sanders and Hill showed explosive athleticism, and both players on tape are shifty backs that show explosiveness in the open field. Sanders in particular is a favorite of mine. He’s a willing blocker and a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield. Teams should look at both of these guys as game changers out of the backfield in the pass game.
Day One Losers
1- Elijah Holyfield: Not many players had a worse combine than Elijah Holyfield. Holyfield tested extremely poorly during the athletic portion of the combine, with the pinnacle being a 4.79 and a 4.81 in the 40 yard dash. Even as a bigger back, you have to be able to show quality quickness and some breakaway ability. Holyfield showed none of that. His stock is definitely down.
2- Greg Little: This isn’t a shocker for me, but Little tested extremely poorly. His tape was constantly underwhelming because the supposed five star recruit and big time athlete never showed up. This weekend, Little confirmed that he is a right tackle at the next level, and he needs to be developed even further He was too stiff during the drills and too slow during the athletic tests.
3- Wisconsin Offensive Linemen: The buzz on the Wisconsin players was already low heading into this weekend. After the on field drills at the Combine, their collective stock might have dipped even further. David Edwards was a little high out of the stance when hitting the pads, and he was a little stiff in the hips during the other drills. The same goes for Michael Dieter. While I think Edwards still gets drafted between the third and the fourth round because of his intelligence at the position, this could be a rough go for a group that was deemed the best offensive line in college football just six months go.
Day Two Winners (QB, WR and TE)
1- Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins: The top QB’s had themselves a good weekend. First off, we have to start with the most anticipated measurement in the history of the combine. Kyler Murray came in at 5’10 and over 200 pounds, then decided to call it a Combine because he physically couldn’t help his draft stock any further. Now some will question his decision not to throw, and we’ll get to that later on in the article (Big J tease right there). The reason he didn’t is because he couldn’t further his draft stock by throwing. All the rumors were surrounding his measurements. People were questioning if Murray would come in over 5’9. Once he matched Russell Wilson, the only way his draft stock could fall is if he stunk it up during the drills throwing to receivers he didn’t know. So he took his paycheck and exited stage left.
On the other hand, Dwayne Haskins chose to let it rip, and boy did it work out. The ball popped effortlessly out of his hands. At least once a drill he showed some elite level anticipation, which was his big question mark for me. There were definitely still some questions on my end, a few throws were behind guys and a tad late. The other Quarterbacks were so average though, that Dwayne Haskins looked elite. He’s a top ten lock.
2- DK Metcalf and AJ Brown: The Ole Miss duo absolutely crushed the Combine. Metcalf’s freakish performance has been well documented, but that doesn’t mean it’s being over exaggerated. His athletic testing was otherworldly for his size. Don’t get trapped into his slow three cone either. This dude sinks his hips on tape and gets a clean release almost every time. Metcalf is an elite wide receiver at the next level if he stays healthy, and that was confirmed this weekend.
AJ Brown was someone who I thought would test much better than people realized. Not to brag, but he proved me right. Brown had a sub 4.5 40 and almost a 37 inch vertical. He could definitely wind up in the first round of my personal mock draft, and you should see him off the board in the first 50 picks come April.
3- N’Keal Harry and Hakeem Butler: Speaking of receivers, N’Keal Harry and Hakeem Butler put to rest any questions about their ability to win down the field. Harry was a quality prospect before this event, the one thing that he needed to answer to put himself into the round one conversation. He did that, so expect to see Harry off the board on day one.
Butler might have been the most impressive player in this position group not named DK Metcalf. At 6’5 he posted a 4.48 40 yard dash, a ridiculous number for someone of that size. I still have reservations about his tape; he often has drops and double catches. With that being said, I’d be shocked if Butler made it out of round two.
4- Noah Fant: TE1 is a legitimate conversation now. If you’ve read my mock drafts, you know I’ve had Fant higher than TJ Hockenson from day one because Fant does more in the passing game without losing a step as a blocker. Fant blew the combine away, testing through the roof and showing clean cuts in and out of route combinations on the field during the drills. TJ Hockenson had a great day in his own right, but a 4.51 40 yard dash and a 6.81 3 Cone drill have teams salivating at the idea of selecting Noah Fant.
5- Parris Campbell: Campbell was going to be extremely fast, so it’s not his athletic testing that wowed me. It’s how smooth he was during the drills. I didn’t love his route running on tape, and I thought he had some double catches as well. Campbell showed none of that this weekend. I will have to go back and rewatch Campbell’s tape because he showed none of the weaknesses I thought he would. Expect to see him go off the board early in a month or so.
Honorable Mentions: Tyree Jackson (ran a 4.6 at 6’7! He also flashed at times during the drills, showing that massive arm strength), Emanuel Hall and Andy Isabella (both receivers absolutely torched the athletic portion of the event), Josh Oliver and Kahale Warring (two small school TE’s that could be day three steals)
Day Two Losers:
1- Kyler Murray: Here is the wrap up to the Big J tease I alluded to earlier in the article. Murray obviously put on water weight to get up over 200 pounds, and this is why he chose not to participate in any drills or athletic testing. He wasn’t comfortable doing so at the weight he was at. For me, that would stem the conversation of if he is able to take NFL punishment. Murray will still be fine in terms of his draft value, but I can see teams not being thrilled about this decision.
2- Kelvin Harmon: Harmon really struggled in the athletic portion of the combine, which was a major concern for him. Obviously Harmon was not a blazer at NC State, but he showed quickness in and out of cuts on tape and the ability to high point the ball. He did not show the measurables to have those skills translate against more athletic NFL Defensive Backs. I’m still sticking with him as a high end round two pick, but he fell down my big board a bit.
3- Isaac Nauta and Kaden Smith: Here’s the deal; if you run a 4.9 as a skill position player, you’re out. It’s that simple. Both these guys tested dreadfully slow this weekend. They gone.
Day Three Winners (DL and LBs)
1- Brian Burns: Burns has been in my top five players the entire draft process, and he dominated this weekend. He moves so fluidly for someone that is nearly 6’5, and weighing in at 249 did not slow him down at all. This dude is a freight train coming off the edge.
2- Montez Sweat: Speaking of freight trains coming of the edge, Montez Sweat confirmed every reason why I had him in my top ten players. His technique was never a question, but he proved this weekend he was a better athlete than he was given credit for. He answered questions about his ankle flexibility with a good 3 Cone Drill, and you can’t ignore his 1.55 10 yard split. A great showing for Sweat in Indy.
3- “The Big Fellas,” Dexter Lawrence and Khalen Saunders: Both these guys were deemed to be phenomenal athletes for their size, and they proved it. These two beasts rolled into the combine over 320 pounds (D-Law was 340) and both came in with impressive 10 yard splits for their size. In my opinion, their tape matches their combine performances.
Lawrence is a behemoth in the run game and he can collapse the pocket to help his teammates get to the passer. Saunders was moved all over the lot at Western Illinois, he even stood up at times and rushed from the edge. He’s explosive for his size with a great first step.
These two will be quality starters in the NFL.
4- Anthony Nelson: Here’s another edge player that I expected to test better athletically, and he proved me right. Nelson showed good ankle flexibility with a terrific 3 Cone, and he was a fluid mover during the on field drills. I had him a little too low on my previous big board, partially because I was hedging my bets. That won’t happen next time.
5- Blake Cashman: Cashman won the “I need to go watch this player ASAP,” award this week. In a weak linebacker class, he made himself some money. To list off the athletic testing, 4.5 flat on the 40, a 37.5’’ vertical, 10’2 on the broad jump, sub 7 on the 3 Cone and a 4.12 short shuttle. Supposedly the production is there on tape, which would make him a very attractive option for teams that miss out on the big three off ball linebackers.
Day Three Losers:
1- Jachai Polite: Polite is a puzzler. His tape is really impressive, and everything you heard out of the Florida camp about him was positive. Having said that, he didn’t interview well at all, and he tested even worse, posting a 1.71 10 yard split at 258 pounds. He wasn’t particularly great at the start of the on-field drills either, and then inexplicably stopped the workout with a hamstring injury. Polite’s tape should still keep him in the first 75 picks, but the former Gator has definitely lost the first round hype. A big story on draft day will be how far Polite falls.
2- Clelin Ferrell: Ferrell showed very little dip and bend ability during the 3 Cone and Short Shuttle, and his drills weren’t much better. Now this isn’t a surprise to many, but as someone who thought he was a better athlete than his tape showed, he drops down my board a bit.
I do still think he will be a very productive pro. He’s great against the run and he collapses the pocket by long arming tackles.
However, Ferrell has to fall because his ceiling is just not as high as some of the other defensive linemen in this draft. That was confirmed this weekend.
3- LJ Collier: I was never on the LJ Collier bandwagon because I wasn’t high on his tape. For those that were, the athletic testing should have you extremely concerned. Collier never looked fluid and struggled all throughout the day. Maybe he can bulk up and kick inside, but I don’t think he has the technique to do so.
Honorable Category of Confusion: Ed Oliver- Okay, we all knew Ed Oliver put on some weight to measure in bigger, and that’s why he didn’t want to run. However, he could’ve ran and done all the drills at that weight and still tested in at least the 80th percentile across the board. He was made for weekends like this. Heck, he posted a workout video this summer where he was doing linebacker and defensive back drills! His stock could have received a freebie boost this weekend, but alas, he refused. I’ll never understand why.
Day Four Winners
1- The Safeties: The safety class was deemed to be ridiculously weak, and day four could’ve gone real bad for them with Deionte Thompson and Nasir Adderley sitting out. However, players like Jonathan Abram, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Amani Hooker stepped up and showed some surprising athleticism throughout their portion of the Combine. It’s still not a strong class, but this group did surprise a bit.
2- Byron Murphy, Justin Layne, David Long and Rock Ya-Sin: Here’s why this group is so big; these four were the only players among the cornerbacks to put up even an average performance during the drills on the field.
Murphy was the cleanest in and out of his backpedal, he flipped his hips fluidly and he never lost momentum coming out of his T-Step in the “W-Drill.” He confirmed CB1 for me despite an average 40 time.
Layne is a long, athletic corner that stepped up and showed precision in his backpedal down the hash marks. He also tested very well athletically.
Long was the biggest winner of the combine, catapulting his draft stock with a clean backpedal and natural footwork. His tape is a bit confusing, but some team will gamble on him in day two.
Ya-Sin ran a solid 40 on his second run, but he started slow during the drill process. However, there’s a reason they call it “Temple Tough.” The former Temple corner got better as the day went on and confirmed the first round player I saw on tape.
Day Four Losers
1- The Cornerbacks Not Named Above: This group is by far the biggest loser of the combine. The question about the corners was simple; would the athletic testing match the collegiate tape and production? The answer was a resounding no. Almost every guy struggled with their backpedal, many players flipped their hips before the coaches asked them to, and the technique was just stiff across the board. This will become a massive storyline during the NFL Draft because these cornerbacks furthered the polarizing analysis about him.
2- Trayvon Mullen and Greedy Williams: These two cornerbacks are worthy of their own category because of how rough their days were. Mullen never looked comfortable during the drills. He was often flat footed and stiff in the hips. His tape was inconsistent, and that was confirmed this weekend. It’ll be interesting to see where he winds up.
Greedy Williams is the biggest culprit of the polarizing analysis. He came out of the blocks and ran a 4.38, a terrific time. Then he got in the drills and couldn’t get it right. He stumbled out of his backpedal and he flipped his hips early on three separate occasions, once coming out of the backpedal in the first drill and twice during the backpedal and weave drill. Then he announced that he had cramped up, and his day was done. The guy who is by far the toughest evaluation for NFL teams became even more of a question mark this weekend.