Drake Maye
Jordan Katz’s NFL Mock Draft 4.0: Final
Zero hour is upon us and it is officially NFL Draft week! That means it is time for the final installment of our Mock Draft SZN.
I have made my typical mock trades in round one, and only round one because mocking trades in round two and beyond is impossible. There are a fair amount of changes from my most recent mock, including some surprising slides and a few different trades than I have been mocking to this point.
Let’s roll.
ROUND ONE
1) Chicago Bears (from Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB USC- Williams was the presumed number one overall pick almost all season. On draft night, the Bears will make it official. From the jump, I have said that Williams could be a generational talent if he were allowed to sit. However, that does not mean he will fail if he plays right away. The Bears have put a lot of weapons around him with the hope of those weapons helping him achieve early success.
2) Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU– Three days ago I went back to Drake Maye at this pick. At zero hour, I am going to lock in Daniels going second.
If you listen to the draft pundits talk about the debate here, they say that most people around the league have Daniels as the second quarterback off the board. The added dimension of his legs and the fact that he anticipates throwing windows better than Maye elevate him in the eyes of many.
3) New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB North Carolina– The Patriots are a popular trade-down candidate, and have been so for months. Here’s the problem; of the players that the Patriots have used a top 30 visit on, only Maye and Jayden Daniels are projected to go in the top 20 picks. Unless New England is wowed by an offer, they likely just pick whichever quarterback is here at three.
4) Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State- If the top 3 quarterbacks go 1-2-3, the Cardinals will hold the keys to the entire draft. They would be flooded with trade offers. The question they will have to answer is if any of the offers are worthy of them passing on drafting Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ultimately, the Cardinals likely stay put and select the generational talent in front of them. They also desperately need a number one receiver, which adds to their decision.
5) *TRADE* Minnesota Vikings (from Chargers): J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan- Minnesota is desperate to come away with one of the top quarterbacks in this draft. While they will try to move into the top three, the consolation will be to the Chargers at five for J.J. McCarthy. They simply can offer significantly more than the other teams in the conversation.
McCarthy is an odd fit for the Vikings. While he does have a lot of NFL traits, he’s inaccurate in areas where Head Coach Kevin O’Connell will want him to be successful. McCarthy struggles to complete the deep ball, and he is not great in the middle of the field either. Having said that, NFL teams love McCarthy’s arm talent, and someone is going to try to coach that talent into a quality starter.
The Trade: The Minnesota Vikings trade the #11, #23, and a 2025 3rd-round pick to the Los Angeles Chargers for the Fifth Overall Selection.
6) New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR LSU- If all four quarterbacks are off the board, wide receiver is a layup for the Giants. Now, some may argue it should be anyway, but that’s a different story.
Nabers is the guy if the Giants go receiver. He makes plays after the catch, and his route running is polished. I think Nabers is the Giants’ top non-QB on their board, even ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
7) Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame- The Titans have needed offensive line from day one of the draft season. Joe Alt is the premiere pass protector in the draft. His game is complete and he can play the left or right side. He also has a phenomenal collegiate resume against edge rushers.
8) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (from Falcons): Rome Odunze, WR Washington- Everyone has talked about teams like the Jets and the Bills making a move past the Bears to land Odunze. Here is my question; why wouldn’t Chicago move up one spot if they love Odunze that much? Chicago’s goal seems to be giving Caleb Williams as many weapons as possible. Moving up one spot to guarantee Rome Odunze would not cost them a lot of draft capital. It also feels like the right move given Keenan Allen’s age.
The Trade: The Chicago Bears trade the #9 and #75 to the Atlanta Falcons for the #8 and #109.
9) *TRADE* Atlanta Falcons (from Bears): Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama- Dallas Turner is the top edge rusher in the draft, and the Falcons desperately need a premiere pass rusher. They trade down, move up 30 picks in the middle of the draft, and select the player they would have taken at eight anyway.
The Trade: See Pick #8.
10) New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia- Both Peter Schrager and Daniel Jeremiah are locked into the Jets because of their connection to Joe Douglas. Both have said that the Jets’ first goal is to move up for one of Joe Alt, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Rome Odunze. In this mock, they struck out on trading up.
The Jets’ next move would be trying to trade down, but with two trades already inside the top 10, that feels unlikely to pull off.
That brings us to the pick. The buzz on Brock Bowers feels real, and both Schrager and Jeremiah have noted the Jets’ infatuation with Bowers. I think they have to pick him at 10 if they want him that badly.
11) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers: J.C. Latham, OT Alabama- If the Chargers do trade back, they likely select a tackle to fortify their offensive line. Latham can play right tackle from day one. He’s physical in the run game and when he can get his hands on edge rushers early in pass protection, he buries them.
The Trade: See Pick #5.
12) *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (from Broncos): Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama- If the Broncos can’t land one of the top four quarterbacks, they likely move back and try to recoup the second-rounder they lack in this draft. 12 is way too high for Michael Penix or Bo Nix. The Broncos need assets to continue building out this roster.
Philadelphia is known to get aggressive for a player they covet. James Bradberry was awful last season as the number two corner, and Darius Slay is 33 years old. This draft has two elite cover corners; Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell. The Eagles used a top-30 visit on Arnold, which is why he is the pick over Mitchell.
The Trade: The Philadelphia Eagles trade the #22, #50, and #120 to the Denver Broncos for the 12th overall selection.
13) Las Vegas Raiders: Troy Fautanu, OL Washington– The Raiders need a quarterback, but they signed Gardner Minshew to a two-year deal. Therefore, they can take a different position of need at this pick instead of reaching for a quarterback, and look for a QB later in the draft.
Fautanu can play multiple spots up front. That versatility is important for the Raiders, who will enter 2024 with a revamped offensive line from the previous year.
14) New Orleans Saints: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State- The Saints do need pass catchers as I have mentioned in my previous mocks, but they seem locked in to left tackle here in round one. Trevor Penning has been less than impressive, and this class has some elite left tackles, Fashanu being one of them.
15) Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo- This is a home run scenario for the Colts. I had them attempt to move up for Mitchell multiple times in this mock. To land a long, athletic corner with great ball skills and tremendous footwork without having to move up the board is striking gold.
16) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (from Seahawks): Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU– The Bills are going to be aggressive in pursuing a pass catcher in this draft. If they can’t move into the top 10, they will try to move into the middle of this draft for Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas Jr is the “unsung hero,” of this receiving class. He would be a “WR1,” in most years because of his nose for the end zone and ability with the ball in his hands.
The Trade: The Buffalo Bills trade the #28, #60, and a 2025 2nd-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for the #16 and #118.
17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State- Cam Robinson is in the final year of his contract. On top of that, Anton Harrison has had his inconsistencies on the right side. Offensive tackle may be the most pressing need for the Jaguars, and somehow no one is talking about it.
Fuaga is a monster in the run game and only allowed one sack over his final two years at Oregon State. He can play the left or right side from day one.
18) Cincinnati Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia- Mims has a limited collegiate resume, but many seem to love his potential. He has a tremendous wingspan and impressive grip strength. When he gets his hands on opposing edge rushers, it’s game over. I think the opportunity for Mims to develop behind Trent Brown, or start right away if he earns it, is intriguing to Cincinnati.
19) Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State- The number one concern for the Rams at 19 is going to be pairing a pass rusher with last year’s breakout stars Kobie Turner and Byron Young. Verse collapses the pocket well and he generates a ton of QB pressures. He also put together a great athletic workout at the combine, which showed some dip-and-bend ability at the next level.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, IOL Duke- The Steelers tend to be very candid with us mock draft aficionados; they tend to just take the things they appear to be interested in. In this draft, that is offensive line.
Barton can play multiple spots up front, and many have him as the top-ranked interior offensive lineman in this draft class.
21) Miami Dolphins: Byron Murphy II, IDL Texas- Having lost Christian Wilkins, Byron Murphy would be an absolute steal here for the Dolphins. He immediately becomes their best interior pass rusher, and Murphy is better against the run than he is given credit for. This would be a home run scenario.
22) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Eagles): Bo Nix, QB Oregon– The 20-40 range is likely where Penix and Bo Nix wind up, which is great news for Denver given their lack of assets. It allows them to move backward and still land a player at the position they covet most in this draft.
From day one, the best system fit for Denver has been Bo Nix. He’s extremely accurate in the short to intermediate passing window, which will allow Head Coach Sean Payton to run the west coast offense he wants to run.
The Trade: See Pick #12.
23) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers (from Vikings through Browns via Texans): Xavier Worthy, WR Texas- Worthy’s 4.21 speed would be fascinating to watch in a Justin Herbert-led offense. He can take slant plays to the house, and he can be the vertical threat this offense needs. The Chargers need pass catchers and cannot come out of the first two days without at least one.
The Trade: See Pick #5.
24) Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma– The Cowboys have to get a left tackle early in this draft. Guyton may not have played a lot, but his length and ability to gain leverage at the point of attack has NFL teams salivating at what he could be. Do not be shocked if he goes higher than expected in round one.
25) Green Bay Packers: Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL Illinois– Green Bay’s first-round pick is an absolute mystery to me. They likely solidify the trenches, but which side of the ball they choose is anyone’s guess. I’m going with Newton, who can add an interior pass-rushing element next to Kenny Clark that the Packers need.
26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State- Robinson’s combine masterpiece should land him safely in the first round. He gets home off the edge by athletically running the arch to the quarterback, and his best football is unequivocally ahead of him. Robinson could wreck games as a 3-4 edge player in Head Coach Todd Bowles’s defense.
27) Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA- The run on edge rushers continues with Latu, who stumbles a bit in this mock because of medical concerns. Latu had a severe neck injury that caused him to temporarily retire from football in 2021.
However, Latu came back from the neck injury to dominate college football like he was Edge returning at the Royal Rumble (another IYKYK reference). He has the most complete move-set of the edge rushers in this class, which is why he is a round one lock despite the medical concerns.
Having said that, his athletic upside is not as high as Turner, Verse, or Robinson. When you combine that with the medical history, a projected slide is reasonable to predict.
28) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (from Bills): Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson- Wiggins has an outside chance to be the first cornerback selected. He’s an elite athlete with terrific man-cover skills from the boundary or slot position.
According to Daniel Jeremiah, no team has done more research on cornerback in this draft than the Seattle Seahawks. With the big two gone by the time they pick at 16, they trade down, recoup the second-rounder they do not have, and select “CB3.”
The Trade: See Pick #16
29) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (from Lions): Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington– Talented, well-run organizations trade down when they have limited needs in round one. Believe it or not, the Detroit Lions are now a good team that is well-run. Keep an eye on Detroit putting this pick up for sale to the highest bidder.
I mentioned earlier that Vegas could move back into round one to get their quarterback of the future instead of selecting that quarterback at 13. Penix will push for the day-one starter, but could sit behind Minshew for a year if needed.
The Trade: The Las Vegas Raiders trade the #44, #77, and a 2025 2nd-round pick to the Detroit Lions for the #29 and a 2025 3rd-round pick.
30) Baltimore Ravens: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas- Rashod Bateman underperformed drastically last season, and Mark Andrews is on the back nine of his career. Receiver is actually a pressing need for the Ravens.
Mitchell is a contested catch monster and an elite red zone target. Plus, he wins down the field, which is important in the Ravens’ offense.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Paul, OT Houston- I think cooler heads will prevail on the Brandon Aiyuk saga, and he will ultimately re-up with the Niners. The next need for San Francisco is tackle. Right tackle is a massive need, but they really need options at both spots long-term. If an NFL career was put into golf terms, Trent Williams is playing the 17th at Sawgrass. His retirement is on the horizon.
Patrick Paul seems pretty confident that he has an early promise, and the Niners are a logical team to have made said promise. He can compete for the starting right tackle spot while eventually switching back to the left side when Williams retires.
32) Kansas City Chiefs: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa- In a draft where quarterbacks go earlier than expected, talented players fall down the draft board. The Chiefs seem destined to steal a talented player here.
DeJean put on a great workout recently, answering a lot of questions that teams had about his athleticism. His ball skills are strong, and his ability in off-coverage is excellent. Great value pick here for a team that needs secondary help.
ROUND TWO
33) Carolina Panthers: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE Western Michigan- Perhaps the biggest late riser of the draft process is Marshawn Kneeland. He went into the combine as someone who was a likely 3rd round guy, and now he’s had top-30 visits with a lot of teams and generated some round-one buzz. Kneeland’s high motor and ability to collapse the pocket make him an interesting edge prospect at the next level.
34) New England Patriots: Troy Franklin, WR Oregon- If the Pats are going to take a quarterback third, they better give him a weapon to throw to early in round two. Franklin is a threat down the field and the Patriots have used a top-30 visit on him.
35) Arizona Cardinals: Ennis Rakestraw, Jr., CB Missouri- Arizona needs a lot, so this pick could be anything. Rakestraw is physical at the line and he stays attached to receivers when trailing them. The media is higher on him than I am, but he still should be an early day-two pick.
36) Washington Commanders: Roger Rosengarten, OL Washington- Washington could move back into the first round to ensure an offensive lineman of their choice. In this mock, Rosengarten falling to them is perfect because he likely can play multiple positions up front at the next level.
37) Los Angeles Chargers: Mike Sainristil, DB Michigan- The former Michigan Head Coach selects his first Michigan man of the 2024 draft. Sainristil has some first-round buzz, but he likely comes off the board somewhere on day two.
38) Tennessee Titans: Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M- Call me crazy, but having only Kenneth Murray along the interior of the second level does not feel like a recipe for success. Cooper is the best of a very quality off-ball linebacker class.
39) Carolina Panthers (from N.Y. Giants): Xavier Leggette, WR South Carolina- Despite the Panthers adding Diontae Johnson, they still need playmakers. Leggette is exactly that; he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands and physical in his routes as well.
40) Washington Commanders (from Chicago): Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU– Washington doubling up on offensive line is easily their best draft strategy. When you draft a quarterback high, you have to build an offensive line around them to give them the best chance to be successful. Washington’s offensive line currently stinks, and this is a great “OL,” class at the top.
41) Green Bay Packers (from N.Y. Jets): Jaden Hicks, S Washington State- Hicks is a safety who can line up at many spots and excels playing downhill. It’s hard to say who will be the first safety off the board from a below-average safety class, but Hicks has the most buzz right now, so he goes first.
42) Houston Texans (from Minnesota): Darius Robinson, IDL Missouri- The interior of Houston’s defensive line is subpar, and it lacks a pass rush. Robinson can play multiple spots up front, and he will add a necessary pass-rushing presence from the interior.
43) Atlanta Falcons: Payton Wilson, LB NC State- The second level of the Falcons’ defense is a disaster right now. Wilson can cover running backs and tight ends and is a quality tackler in space.
44) *TRADE* Detroit Lions (from Raiders): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama– I have no idea how Detroit pulled off trading down and still landing the player they likely would have selected at 29. McKinstry’s draft stock is a mystery because he did not test at the combine. I know most have him in round one, and he should go there because of his press coverage skills. However, something tells me he slides on draft day.
The Trade: See Pick #29.
45) New Orleans Saints (from Broncos): Malachi Corley, WR Western Kentucky- Corley’s ability to win from the slot is his best attribute, but a close second is his nose for the end zone. The Saints need both of these things. They also spent a top-30 visit on Corley.
46) Indianapolis Colts: Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida- Keep an eye on the Colts using an early pick on a pass catcher. Josh Downs and Alec Pierce have flashed, but the more weapons Anthony Richardson has at his disposal, the better.
47) New York Giants (from Seahawks): Max Melton, CB Rutgers- The Giants continue to revamp their secondary with this pick. Melton is competitive in man coverage and will fit nicely opposite Deonte Banks.
48) Jacksonville Jaguars: T.J. Tampa, CB Iowa State- The Jaguars could go corner in round one, but if they don’t, expect it on day two. Tampa is a lengthy corner that has really nice footwork in a multitude of coverages.
49) Cincinnati Bengals: Maason Smith, IDL LSU- Early in this draft, there will be a team that takes a chance on Smith’s elite traits and potential pass-rushing upside. Cincinnati needs help along the interior and used a top-30 visit on Smith.
50) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Eagles via Saints): Adisa Isaac, EDGE Penn State- Denver could go edge rusher as early as 12, but in this scenario, they recouped a second-rounder and did so here. Isaac had nice production in college, notching seven-and-a-half sacks last season.
The Trade: See Pick #12.
51) Pittsburgh Steelers: Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia- McConkey deserves to go in round one, so this is a steal before we analyze the pick. As far as the selection goes, Pittsburgh needs a number two receiver and a chain mover, which is exactly what McConkey does.
52) Los Angeles Rams: Dru Phillips, CB Kentucky- The Rams made a move for Tre White in the offseason, but injuries have hamstrung his career a bit. They need a secondary player early in this draft, preferably one that plays in multiple spots in coverage like Phillips.
53) Philadelphia Eagles: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona– Howie Roseman is excellent at addressing team needs a year too early rather than a minute too late. With Lane Johnson at 34 years old, offensive line is likely an early selection for the Eagles in this draft.
54) Cleveland Browns: Braden Fiske, IDL Florida State- Fiske was a major riser at the combine, putting on the best performance of any player there. He should be a day-two lock, likely to a team that needs an interior pass rusher like the Browns do.
55) Miami Dolphins: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL Oregon- Powers-Johnson is a day-one talent, but he is a center, which means he goes lower than expected. This is probably his floor in the draft; honestly, I would expect him to go higher than this. However, Miami is the recipient of a “mock,” draft day slide, and those happen all the time.
56) Dallas Cowboys: Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas- The worst-kept secret of the second day of this draft is Dallas picking a starting running back. Jonathon Brooks’s collegiate resume is better than Trey Benson’s, which is likely the difference in determining who will be “RB1.”
57) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ben Sinnott, TE Kansas State- Keep an eye on Sinnott going even higher than this. Most pundits have him as an early third-rounder, but Sinnott runs clean routes for a tight end and has met with a fair amount of teams during the draft process.
58) Green Bay Packers: Tevin Wallace, LB Kentucky- Wallace has elite potential at the next level because he’s athletic enough to cover tight ends and running backs. The Packers have a need at linebacker and used a top-30 visit on Wallace, making him a likely target on day two.
59) Houston Texans: Kamari Lassiter, CB Georgia- Lassiter can play the nickel from day one, but his athletic testing indicates that he can trail from the boundary as well. I think he’s a steal on day two.
60) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (from Bills): Zach Frazier, IOL West Virginia- Among the needs for Seattle in this draft is interior offensive line. Adding Zach Frazier at the bottom of round two would be a home-run draft scenario because he is a day-one starting center.
The Trade: See Pick #16.
61) Detroit Lions: Roman Wilson, WR Michigan- Detroit has a few upper-echelon targets in their offense, but the offense lacks depth in the pass-catching department. Roman Wilson is a savvy route runner from multiple spots, which makes him an intriguing day-two pick because he can play right away.
62) Baltimore Ravens: Cam Hunt, CB Notre Dame- The Ravens should address cornerback early in this draft. Not only is there some uncertainty around Marlon Humphrey because of his injuries, but they need a number two corner anyway.
63) San Francisco 49ers: Javon Bullard, S Georgia- I don’t know if I agree that safety is a need for the Niners, but their pre-draft meetings seem to indicate that they could go in that direction. Bullard is the biggest name in this class, but he could see a fall on draft day because he overpursues in coverage a lot.
64) Kansas City Chiefs: Ja’Lynn Polk, WR Washington- The 13th receiver in the top 64 picks is a perfect fit for the Chiefs. Polk has terrific hands and he wins contested catches because of his physicality and aforementioned hands.
Jordan Katz’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 3.0: Two Rounds
After a very exciting free agency period, we are back with the third installment of #MockLyfe! Some team needs have changed, and some player evaluations have changed as well. The last installment of my prediction mock draft was before the combine, which saw a ton of players shine. There are a lot of players who added to their draft stock, and a few who hurt it as well.
A couple of housekeeping notes before we get started. I only did trades for the first round. It is incredibly hard to predict trades in a mock in general, and predicting past the second round is almost impossible. Therefore, I limited myself to only mocking trades in round one.
Also, if your favorite team needs a wide receiver or an offensive lineman, you are in luck this year. I have 12 wide receivers going in the first two rounds (which could be a little high), and even more offensive linemen (which I still could be low on).
Now I know what you’re thinking; “okay that’s cool information, but where do the quarterbacks go? Where are the trades and how many of them do you have?”
Well…
ROUND ONE
1) Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB USC- This decision appears to be a lock, so we won’t spend too much time on it. The Bears have moved on from Justin Fields, and surrounded Williams with a quality receiving core after the addition of Keenan Allen. They also brought in D’Andre Swift, who should fortify the run game. Williams has the pieces around him to be incredibly successful.
2) Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU- Daniels appears to be the favorite to go second overall. His impressive showing at the combine has solidified him as a top 3 lock. Whether he goes 2 or not will depend on how much influence Head Coach Dan Quinn has in the selection.
Quinn is someone who values athleticism at every position, and getting a quarterback who runs a 4.33 feels like something that would be atop the wish list. Daniels’s ability to create with his legs would give the Commanders a different dimension to their offense.
3) *TRADE* Minnesota Vikings (from Patriots): Drake Maye, QB North Carolina- This is where the draft starts. Reports coming out of Indianapolis were that quarterbacks would go 1-2-3. The debate is whether the Patriots will make the pick, or trade it and tank for next year. While I would select a quarterback and just wait to play him until the roster was ready, I am not in charge of this one.
For four months the Pats have been a prime candidate to trade down… except for during the last few weeks when the discussion has turned into them being locked into a quarterback. We all know that this is smoke and mirrors season for the draft process. My guess is that the Patriots are tempting someone to move up the board.
Minnesota is desperate to land one of the young quarterbacks after losing Kirk Cousins. On top of their top targets is Maye (Josh McCown has familiarity with him from Maye’s high school days). I also think this is Maye’s best fit. He walks into the league with the best receiver in the game (Justin Jefferson), a top-tier tight end (TJ Hockenson), and an elite offensive-minded coach (Kevin O’Connell).
Should the Patriots’ decision be a trade at three, the Vikings are the slam-dunk move.
The Trade: The Minnesota Vikings trade the #11, #23, a 2025 1st round pick, and a 2025 3rd round pick to the New England Patriots for the #3, #103, and a 2025 4th round pick.
4) Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State- If the Patriots make their selection, the Cardinals will be flooded with trade offers, and they will likely get one that is too good to pass up on. However, if the trade happens at three, the trade offers will be lighter, and not worth passing up on Marvin Harrison Jr.
The decision not to participate in the entire pre-draft process may have been questionable to some, but it actually made perfect sense for Harrison Jr. His draft hype was already otherworldly; there was no reason to risk hurting his draft stock. He will likely be the first non-quarterback selected in a few weeks.
5) Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers, WR LSU- Following the release of Mike Williams and the trade of Keenan Allen, the Chargers are now a virtual lock to pick one of the talented top receivers at five. There is a chance they wind up with Marvin Harrison, but I think Nabers is the better fit. The Chargers need a playmaker with the ball to open up this offense, and Nabers is the best “YAC,” player in the draft. He also runs good routes from the slot and the boundary positions.
6) New York Giants: J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan- I might be falling for the bait, but I think the Giants are the floor for McCarthy’s draft stock. Daniel Jones is simply not the answer long term. McCarthy’s athleticism would be appealing to Head Coach Brian DaBoll, and he could start or sit depending on what he earns in training camp.
Editor’s Note: We do need to address the elephant in the room; why is everyone in love with J.J. McCarthy? In my opinion, the arm talent is the only answer to that question. Teams fall in love with arm talent and feel that they can coach up the rest. McCarthy does have a chance if he sits, and I do believe the Giants would sit him in year one.
7) Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame- Much like the Chargers, the Titans are a lock in terms of the position they are selecting at seven. They signed Calvin Ridley to round out their receiving core, so finding a left tackle is now priority number one.
Alt is the consensus top tackle in a terrific offensive line class, but keep an eye on Olu Fashanu here. When Andrew Thomas went fourth overall to the Giants, which surprised many, there were rumors that one team had him so high on their board that they refused to pass if he was available. There are those rumors about Olu Fashanu at this time.
8) Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama- I did try to trade this pick for Atlanta, but the offers were not up to par. Therefore, if Atlanta is stuck in this spot, they likely take the top edge guy on the board.
Turner’s ceiling is not as high as the top edge guys from past years, but he is an elite athlete who is best served standing up in a 3-4. The Falcons’ defense stunk last year in terms of getting to the passer, so Turner can make an immediate impact there.
9) Chicago Bears: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State- Selfishly, I am glad we have returned to normalcy when it comes to Olu Fashanu and his draft stock. You would think the Bears have to go offensive line with this selection, but keep an eye on Brock Bowers potentially landing here. While it makes little sense because of their needs up front and the Bears having Cole Kmet, Bowers has met with the Bears twice already. He is also expected to go in this range.
10) New York Jets: Rome Odunze, WR Washington- Much like the Falcons, I think the Jets ultimately get stuck at 10 on draft night. If they are, this is a literal coin flip between Odunze and Taliese Fuaga in the scenario this mock has created. The Jets still need both positions long-term despite the one-year signings of Mike Williams and Tyron Smith. What this selection could come down to is the uncertainty of Williams coming off of surgery. Odunze’s route running skills and 50/50 ability would be something Aaron Rodgers would love in the offense.
Editor’s Note: The Jets are being tied to Brock Bowers at 10, but I think that’s a smoke screen. Joe Douglas has only picked premium positions in round one during his time in New York, and tight end is simply not that when it comes to top 10 selections. To me, the Bowers move becomes more possible if the Jets move backward in the first round.
11) *TRADE* New England Patriots (from Vikings): Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State- If the Patriots are going to punt the season and wait for a quarterback until the roster is ready, building the offensive line back up should be the top priority. Fuaga plays with immense physicality and quality lower body technique. He can play the left side or the right side at the next level, and that is appealing to many.
The Trade: See Pick #3.
12) *TRADE* Dallas Cowboys (from Broncos): Amarius Mims, OT Georgia- In previous mocks, I have talked about Bo Nix and how he is a perfect fit for the Denver Broncos. However, this is a little early for that move. The more likely scenario is them moving backward, adding assets, and selecting that quarterback later in round one.
Dallas also has to find their Tyron Smith replacement, so them getting aggressive here also makes sense.
Mims this high is a bold call, but teams are infatuated with his athleticism and upside. Even with limited tape, there are plenty who think he can be an elite tackle at the next level. Plus, teams will always take an elite athlete over an average one with great tape.
The Trade: The Dallas Cowboys trade the #24, #56 and a 2025 2nd round pick to the Denver Broncos for the #12 and #136.
13) Las Vegas Raiders: JC Latham, OT Alabama- Look for Vegas to make their quarterback move in this draft by trading back into round one. At this spot, offensive line makes the most sense. Latham is a plug-and-play right tackle from day one, something Vegas desperately needs.
14) New Orleans Saints: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia- Keep an eye on the Saints to move up this draft board to ensure a pass catcher opposite Chris Olave. It is by far their biggest need, and the players at the top are elite. Should Bowers slide a bit, this feels like his floor because of that need. He is a do-it-all tight end with YAC ability to boot.
15) Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama- What an absolute steal this would be for the Colts. Arnold is arguably the top player in the draft on the defensive side of the ball, and the Colts need a true number one corner. In a year with a lot of talent, good players are going to fall when the quarterbacks go high, and Arnold falls victim to that.
16) Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OL Washington- The Seahawks lost a lot along the interior of their offensive line this offseason. Fautanu has all-pro ability at guard, and his versatility to play multiple spots is something NFL teams will value.
17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State- The uncertainty around Josh Allen’s future with the team is why the Jags go edge here at 17. I’m going with Verse because his buzz leaving Indianapolis last month was high, but do not sleep on Chop Robinson going this early. No one had a better showing than Robinson at the Combine, and teams love elite athletes off the edge.
18) Cincinnati Bengals: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas- The back end of this first round could get wild because of the immense talent in this class. You could see a lot of teams taking “their guy,” instead of the consensus best player at that position. Adonai Mitchell over Brian Thomas Jr is one of those instances. He’s a 50/50 playmaker and he wins in the red zone.
In terms of draft needs for Cincy, I do think Tee Higgins moves on draft day (stay tuned for that later), which makes pass catcher their primary need based on how their offense operates.
19) Los Angeles Rams: Byron Murphy II, IDL Texas- What a perfect fit this is. Following the retirement of Aaron Donald, defensive line is incredibly likely at 19. Murphy fills the need for a pass rusher, while also replacing Aaron Donald in the starting lineup for all three downs. I do think edge is in play here, but I love the idea of Murphy and Kobe Turner wrecking games from the interior.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma– Pittsburgh could go several different directions here, but the most likely seems to be offensive line. Guyton is still not a day-one player in my eyes, but I think the NFL may feel differently. He does possess a lot of power in his strikes, and teams like his upside because of his athleticism.
21) Miami Dolphins: Graham Barton, IOL Duke- Miami got gutted along the interior of their offensive line during the offseason. They need to address that early in this draft. Barton can play any spot up front, giving the Dolphins some draft flexibility while simultaneously addressing a need. This is an easy pick.
22) *TRADE* Carolina Panthers (from Eagles): Briant Thomas Jr., WR LSU- The Panthers have quietly had a really good offseason. They have added a few pieces to fortify their offensive line, and they added Diontae Johnson as a target for Bryce Young. If the right situation presents itself, they could move up the draft board for a pass catcher that falls, like Brian Thomas Jr did here.
Conversely, the Eagles are a perfect trade-down candidate. They addressed a lot of their needs during free agency. This is the perfect time for General Manager Howie Roseman to add a few assets to help fill out the depth of the roster.
I do not know if this exact trade happens on draft day, but I would keep an eye on both of these teams moving around the board early in this draft.
The Trade: The Carolina Panthers trade the #39, #65 and a 2025 3rd round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for the #22 and a 2025 4th round pick.
23) *TRADE* New England Patriots (from Vikings via Texans): Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA- The best way to rebuild a roster is through the trenches. Following offensive line at 11, the Patriots add the best pass rusher on tape from the 2024 draft class.
Despite being many’s top pass rusher, I think Latu could slide even further than this on draft day. His athletic testing was not elite in Indianapolis last month. When you combine that with his injury history, he could be one of the players who slides to day two. However, the tape is excellent and he has the best move-set in the entire draft class.
The Trade: See Pick #3.
24) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Cowboys): Bo Nix, QB Oregon- This is the perfect scenario for Denver on draft day, and a very realistic one as well. 12 is too high to take Nix, but they must come out of this draft with a quarterback. They also do not have a second round pick to trade up for one after making a selection at 12. Therefore, moving down the draft board, recouping that second-rounder, and still getting Nix is a home run.
The Trade: See Pick #12.
25) *TRADE* Kansas City Chiefs (from Packers): Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo- Hand up, I was dead wrong about Quinyon Mitchell. Some guys overperform at the combine and it forces you to go back and look at their tape to see what you missed. Mitchell was one of those guys for me. I did not see 4.3 speed, I did not see the effortless flipping of his hips that he showed in the drills, and I did not see the ability to break out of his backpedal clean without losing any speed. I saw a good player on tape; Mitchell proved he could be a great player at the combine.
The Chiefs had to let L’Jarius Sneed go because of cap issues, so replacing him with a toolsy corner like Mitchell makes a ton of sense. That is why they get aggressive and move up to land their guy.
The Trade: The Kansas City Chiefs trade the #32, #95 and #141 to the Green Bay Packers for the 25th overall selection.
26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson- Speaking of toolsy cornerbacks, Wiggins has elite athleticism and is one of the better man cover corners in the draft. The Bucs got jumped for Quinyon Mitchell who fell down the draft board a bit, but their consolation prize is a player who fits Todd Bowles’s defense very well.
27) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (from Cardinals via Texans): Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL Oregon- I hinted at the Tee Higgins trade earlier and we have arrived. If you think about it, this is the perfect Tee Higgins trade. The Bengals are not going to want to trade him in the conference, and they likely will not want to give him to a championship contender either. Enter the Arizona Cardinals, who have a ton of cap space and need multiple weapons in their receiving corpse. With two moves in round one, the Cardinals have one of the best receiving duos in the league if MHJ lives up to the hype.
The Bengals continue to revamp their offensive line here with the selection of Jackson Powers-Johnson. He is one of the top interior offensive linemen in this draft because of his intelligence in pass protection and his footwork.
The Trade: The Cincinnati Bengals trade Tee Higgins and a 2025 3rd Round Pick to the Arizona Cardinals for the 27th overall selection.
28) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (from Bills): Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington- Vegas did sign Gardner Minshew to a two-year deal, but I don’t think that rules out quarterback in this draft. They are in a great position to take a quarterback late in round one and sit him behind Minshew in year one. That is why they are the perfect team for Michael Penix Jr. They trade up to get a fifth-year option out of a guy who they hope is their quarterback of the future.
The Trade: The Las Vegas Raiders trade the #44, #77 and a 2025 2nd round pick to the Buffalo Bills for the #28 and a 2025 4th round pick.
29) Detroit Lions: Darius Robinson, DL Missouri- If teams around them did not trade out of round one, Detroit would have been a great candidate to do so. Their needs have shrunk since free agency ended, making “BPA,” a great idea. Robinson’s versatility and athleticism up front make him a terrific fit in Detroit’s defense.
30) Baltimore Ravens: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State- Baltimore is going to find a steal here at 30. While they somehow always find a way to steal someone, in a draft where quarterbacks going early will force talent to slide, it feels like even more of a foregone conclusion this time.
One of the biggest winners from the combine was Chop Robinson. He showed upper-echelon athleticism and flashed elite dip-and-bend potential during the on-field drills. His tape is not as complete as the other edge rushers, but the upside may be higher than all of them.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona- The Niners will likely add to their offensive line depth somewhere in this draft. Morgan’s athleticism should allow him to play the left or right side in this offense, and his footwork should help him be a solid pass protector right away.
32) *TRADE* Green Bay Packers (from Chiefs): Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M- The Packers used a top 30 visit on the best off-ball linebacker in the draft class, which means they could look to take him a little before his expected draft value. Cooper can do it all, including rushing the passer from that second-level spot. He would add a different dimension to this Packers’ defense.
The Trade: See Pick #25.
ROUND TWO
33) Carolina Panthers: Braden Fiske, DL Florida State- Fiske put together the best combine of any player, making him a shoo-in for the top 50 picks. Carolina could use some versatility up-front, which makes this a good fit as well.
34) New England Patriots: Zach Frazier, IOL West Virginia- The Patriots continue to rebuild in the trenches with Frazier, who some think is the best interior offensive lineman in the draft because of his powerful strikes and ability to anchor.
35) Arizona Cardinals: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa- Best defensive player available is an excellent strategy for the Cardinals at the top of round two. DeJean sliding to round two makes him an absolute steal because there is still an argument to be made for him being the top corner in this draft not named Arnold.
36) Washington Commanders: Kingsley Suamataia, OL BYU- Suamataia makes the 12th offensive lineman to go in the first 36 picks of this mock! Keep an eye on Washington moving back into round one to land a tackle as well because they need one that badly. They are fortunate to get one here at 36.
37) Los Angeles Chargers: Xavier Worthy, WR Texas- The Chargers doubling up on receiver makes sense. Quentin Johnston was terrible last season, and he’s the only real weapon on this roster right now. Worthy ran a 4.21 at the combine, so you know he can make some plays with the ball in his hands.
38) Tennessee Titans: T’Vondre Sweat, IDL Texas- Some might say this is early for a one-tech, but not every nose tackle moves as fluidly as Sweat. He also can rush the passer, which is needed in today’s NFL.
39) *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (from Panthers via Giants): Payton Wilson, LB NC State- The Eagles made some cheap signings at linebacker, but adding a quality player instead of trying to resurrect some careers still feels like a smart move. Wilson is an excellent player in coverage, and he shoots the right gaps from the second level.
The Trade: See Pick #22.
40) Washington Commanders (from Bears): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama- McKinstry didn’t test at the combine due to injury, which hurts his chances to go in round one. Still, someone is going to take him early in round two because of his ability to excel in multiple coverages.
41) Green Bay Packers (from Jets): Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL Illinois- Newton is a quick twitch athlete with a great move-set along the interior. Playing alongside Kenny Clark on passing downs would allow him to thrive at the next level.
42) Houston Texans (from Vikings): Troy Franklin, WR Oregon- Houston’s first pick in this draft addresses a sneaky need. This offense sputtered at times when Tank Dell went down. Continuing to give CJ Stroud weapons is a very smart move.
43) Atlanta Falcons: Junior Colson, LB Michigan- The run on off-ball linebackers continues with the Falcons selecting Colson to solidify the second level of their defense. Colson is polarizing, but captaining the defense of the national champions is going to be appealing to NFL teams.
44) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (from Raiders): Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB Missouri- Buffalo really needs help at corner, and this is way too low for Rakestraw according to most pundits. This is a case of a good player falling into a great situation.
The Trade: See Pick #28.
45) New Orleans Saints (from Broncos): Kris Jenkins, IDL Michigan- The Saints were not great against the run last year. Kris Jenkins changes that from day one, and he adds a pass rushing element from the interior.
46) Indianapolis Colts: Xavier Leggette, WR South Carolina- Leggette has some Deebo Samuel in him, who also coincidentally was a South Carolina grad. He’s a good playmaker with the ball in his hands, and everything he does is at 100% speed.
47) New York Giants (from Seahawks): Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia- Should the Giants take JJ McCarthy at six, they must get a pass catcher in the middle of round two. McConkey wins from all over the field, and he’s a very savvy route runner.
48) Jacksonville Jaguars: Kamari Lassiter, CB Georgia- The Jags need some depth in their secondary, which is a good target for them early in this draft. Lassiter had a really nice combine, which helped his draft stock immensely as someone who lined up in the nickel a fair amount.
49) Cincinnati Bengals: Trey Benson, RB Florida State- Call me crazy, but Zack Moss as a “bell cow,” is not an intriguing proposition. Benson showed the “home run ability,” with an incredible showing at the combine, and he should be a lock for the top running back selected in a few weeks.
50) Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Cooper Beebe, IOL Kansas State- The Eagles love to have an abundance of depth in the trenches, and right now they are lacking that on the offensive side of the ball. Beebe fits a need based on how the team operates.
51) Pittsburgh Steelers: Malachi Corley, WR Western Kentucky- Corley has been the draft darling of many. He’s terrific from the slot, and he tested off the charts in Indianapolis. He’s a perfect fit as the number two receiver for the Steelers.
52) Los Angeles Rams: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE Western Michigan- The Rams continue to revamp their defensive front seven. Kneeland is a quality power rusher who flashed some nice athleticism at the combine.
53) Philadelphia Eagles: Javon Bullard, S Georgia- There is a real chance a safety does not go before the third round. If there is one that sneaks in, it’s Bullard because of his ability to read and react in the back end.
54) Cleveland Browns: Patrick Paul, OT Houston- The Browns could use some depth up front with this first selection in their draft. Paul has ridiculous size and long arms. His technique needs work, but that’s why he sits in his first year.
55) Miami Dolphins: Maason Smith, IDL LSU- Miami is in a tough spot in this draft to nab both of the things they need. Smith is a former five-star recruit who had a lot of injuries in college. If he can reach his potential, this could be a steal.
56) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Cowboys): Chris Braswell, EDGE Alabama- Denver lacks a primary pass rusher. While this draft lacks depth in that regard, Braswell is one of the last of the true pass rushers worth taking for a while based on the way this board fell.
The Trade: See Pick #12.
57) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trevin Wallace, LB Kentucky- Todd Bowles would love an athlete at the second level like Wallace. Wallace has some up-and-down moments on tape, but he has elite upside because he can cover.
58) Green Bay Packers: Zak Zinter, IOL Michigan- I am going to continue to prognosticate that Zinter goes sooner rather than later despite his season-ending leg injury. Green Bay could use some depth along the interior, and Zinter could wind up starting by year’s end.
59) Houston Texans: Mike Sainristil, DB Michigan- Sainristil might go a little higher than expected because he can do a bit of everything in the back end, even if he is elite at very little. The fit makes sense as well because Houston needs depth in their secondary.
60) Buffalo Bills: Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida- Despite the signing of Curtis Samuel, I still think the Bills could add a pass catcher in this draft. Pearsall had a monster showing at the combine, guaranteeing himself a top 2 round selection, in my opinion.
61) Detroit Lions: Bralen Trice, EDGE Washington- Detroit doubles up on defensive line with Trice in the back end of round two. His tape was way better than his combine performance. Trice could be the steal of day two.
62) Baltimore Ravens: Roger Rosengarten, OL Washington- Like Detroit, Baltimore also doubles up, in a way. They take a second guy who tested great athletically and they attempt to correct some technical flaws he may have to turn him into a starter.
63) San Francisco 49ers: Roman Wilson, WR Michigan- 12 receivers in the first two rounds may seem high, but this receiver class is built different. San Francisco could use some assurance in case Brandon Aiyuk does not re-sign, and Wilson’s a better route runner than people think.
64) Kansas City Chiefs: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE Texas- Should the situation present itself, Kansas City could look for Travis Kelce’s replacement in this draft since Kelce’s days are numbered. Sanders is a good athlete, and he can make an immediate impact in the red zone.
Jordan Katz’s “What I Would Do” 2024 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
I know this is the mock that many of you were waiting for; the mock where I control all 32 teams and play out a mock draft. We are opening with a one-round mock prior to the combine, and I will likely add a second and final one closer to the NFL Draft. Let’s go to work.
Round One
1) Chicago Bears (from Panthers): Drake Maye, QB North Carolina- In my opinion, the top quarterback in terms of being ready to play right away in this class is Drake Maye. Caleb Williams may have more upside, but I would rather see him sit immediately. He makes some poor reads and relies a little too much on his gifted ability, a la Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech. These top quarterbacks are all so close together that teams should make their picks based on who is the best fit for what they need right now.
The Bears need someone to play right away, and Maye is ready to roll right now. He has a great feel for how to move in the pocket, he stretches the defense with an elite deep ball, and he creates plays outside of the pocket as well. Maye can have a positive impact on the Bears from day one, which is why I would select him first.
2) Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU- Similar to Maye, I would pick Daniels over Williams as well because I think he is more polished than Caleb Williams. Daniels is an elite playmaker outside the pocket, he fits the ball into tight windows with great arm strength and elite anticipation, and he is incredibly technical as a thrower. Much like Maye, I also love Daniels’s ability to move throughout the pocket. I think Daniels and Maye have elite upside, and their ability to play right away makes them more valuable to the teams at the top than Caleb Williams.
3) New England Patriots: Caleb Williams, QB USC- Now in my opinion, the PERFECT situation for Caleb Williams is winding up on a team where he can sit for an entire season, or at least a majority of it. Williams is a world-class talent; he makes off-platform throws with ease, he rips throws into finite windows because of elite arm talent, and he is a terrific athlete both inside and outside of the pocket.
However, Williams has some weaknesses that would become glaring if he played right away. He is not a great reader of the field, which is why he tends to zone in on one read and force some throws. My main concern is that he’s always looking for the big play, and he struggles to take the checkdown. That skill is vital at the next level, and it’s also the same thing that plagued Patrick Mahomes coming out of college. Mahomes got the opportunity to sit and learn the finer points of QB play in a “redshirt,” year, which has turned him into the star he is today. Williams has that kind of upside if he sits right away.
New England seems very committed to punting the 2024 season based on their approach to the offseason thus far. If that is the case, I cannot think of a better spot for Williams than a team that will sit him until they put more talent around him.
4) Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State- The layup of the early picks should be Arizona taking the best receiver on the board. If it happens to be Marvin Harrison Jr., that’s even better. “Maserati Marv,” is the most hyped receiver prospect since AJ Green, and with good reason. He’s physical in his routes, he’s clean in and out of his cuts, and he’s a 50/50 monster. On top of that, he also makes plays with the ball in his hands. Harrison Jr is the complete package and a “WR1,” from day one.
5) Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame- My top tackle is Olu Fashanu, but Alt is a better fit for the Chargers than Fashanu is. If they are going to stick with Rashawn Slater on the left side, Alt’s freakish athleticism for his stature makes him an easy transition to right tackle. If they choose to move Slater to the right side, Alt was an absolute stud at left tackle for the Fighting Irish. He’s quick out of his stance at 6’8, he’s light on his feet, and his vertical set is flawless in pass protection. Alt’s versatility makes him the easy selection for the Chargers.
6) New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR Washington- As mentioned in my Prediction Mock 2.0, if the Giants cannot find a number-one receiver this offseason, they need to clean house. Odunze is the smoothest route runner of the big three, but it’s his ability to snag balls in traffic that makes him a star prospect. He catches everything with his hands first and attacks balls thrown at him rather than letting the ball get close to his body. He also can put his hands up late on 50/50 throws so the defense can’t read the throw. Some think he’s the best receiver in this class, and it’s easy to see why when you put on the tape.
7) Tennessee Titans: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State- Protecting Will Levis is priority number one for the Titans this offseason. Fashanu was practically flawless in pass protection in his last two years at Penn State. Some are hung up on his lower body flexibility, but he slides incredibly well and cuts off edge rushers looking to run the arch to the quarterback. I’m also not concerned about him walling off players in the run game instead of finishing them with elite power. To me, he’s a prototypical left tackle at the next level, and those do not come around often.
8) Atlanta Falcons: Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA- Assuming his medicals check out, Latu is the runaway top edge player on my board. Not only does he have the most production of all the pass rushers, but he also has the most complete move-set. He uses his hands to set up tackles, and he can dip and rip past them. He’s got a cross-chop, a spin move, frankly, if you name a pass-rush move, Latu probably has it in the bag. The Falcons’ pass rush sucked last year, so this is an easy pick given the way the board fell.
Now, let’s address the giant elephant in the room. “Jordan, you didn’t give the Falcons a quarterback, what are you doing?”
First off, I think eighth overall is way too high for any of the other three quarterbacks. Second, should the Falcons trade for Justin Fields, I think eight is too much to give up. I would rather see them sign a veteran, or use their second-round selection to trade for a QB in some way; be that moving up in the draft or flipping it for Fields.
9) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (from Bears): Malik Nabers, WR LSU- If Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo Bills are breaking up this offseason, this deal writes itself. Buffalo can use Diggs and their back-end first-rounder to move into the top 10 for an elite playmaker on a rookie deal.
From the Bears’ perspective, they are resetting the clock on paying a quarterback in this mock by picking Maye first overall. This allows them to trade for a star player like Diggs at a position of need.
This is my favorite move of this mock, which means it has a zero percent chance of happening in real life.
The Trade: The Buffalo Bills trade the 28th overall pick and Stefon Diggs to the Chicago Bears for the ninth overall selection.
10) New York Jets: Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State– I know Jets fans are going to look for a trade of Davante Adams at this spot, and it is possible. However, I don’t see the Jets giving up 10 just for Adams, and I don’t see the Raiders swapping 10 and 13 in an Adams deal. Given the complications of the process, it is more likely that the Jets address wide receiver in free agency.
With that established, that means the 10th overall selection must be offensive line. Fuaga is a prototypical right tackle at the next level. He strikes with power and accurately in pass protection, and when he gains leverage on opposing defensive players, it’s game over.
11) Minnesota Vikings: Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama- Whether the Vikings re-up Danielle Hunter on a short-term deal or let him walk, a pass rusher is a definitive need for them. Turner may not have an elite ceiling, but his floor is high. He understands how to use his length and athleticism to his advantage as a pass rusher, and it helps him bend around the edge. He also has a quick first step and a high motor.
Editor’s Note: The Vikings will likely keep Kirk Cousins, which is why this pick is not a quarterback. If they do not, Bo Nix would make a lot of sense here, and could be the move in future mocks.
12) Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB Oregon- This is a little high for Nix based on my personal board, but I am going to make an exception because the fit is perfect. Nix’s skill set is perfect for a Sean Payton offense. The ball comes out of his hands fast, he’s incredibly accurate in the short to intermediate window, and he has good touch on his throws. In a west coast offense predicated on timing, Nix should be extremely successful.
13) Las Vegas Raiders: Troy Fautanu, OL Washington- The Raiders desperately need offensive line help. Fautanu can play multiple spots up front, but I love the idea of him playing guard at the next level. He has terrific footwork, he redirects well, and he possesses a sneaky amount of power in his strikes. Zack Martin made the transition from quality collegiate left tackle to elite NFL guard famous, and Fautanu has the ability to follow in his footsteps.
14) New Orleans Saints: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia- Adding a playmaker to pair with Chris Olave has to be priority number one for the Saints this offseason. Bowers is an elite tight-end prospect; he’s a threat with the ball in his hands, he blocks incredibly well, and he’s one of the most fluid route runners in the draft for any pass catcher. Bowers is a steal outside of the top 10; he will be a playmaker for years to come.
15) Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama- This is back-to-back steals in this draft because Arnold also has no business being on the board right now. He pulled away from his teammate, Kool-Aid McKinstry, on many people’s draft boards because of his elite ball skills and straight-line speed. For me, it’s his ability to excel in off-coverage that separates him from McKinstry. He’s so quick out of his backpedal that he can thrive in multiple systems. He has the makings of a bonafide stud at the next level.
16) *TRADE* Kansas City Chiefs (from Seahawks): Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU- The Chiefs’ lack of a receiving corps almost cost them multiple times this season. Fortunately, this receiving class is loaded, allowing them to pair a young receiver on a rookie deal with the expensive contract of Patrick Mahomes.
Brian Thomas Jr is the “best of the rest,” in this class. He’s also a perfect fit for the Chiefs because he’s a fluid mover as a route runner, he is elite with the ball in his hands, and he can take the top off of the opposing defense.
The Trade: The Kansas City Chiefs trade the #32, #133, and a 2025 1st-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for the 16th overall selection.
17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama- I have said this in both of my prediction mocks thus far; McKinstry will be the biggest riser of the top-tier players. He’s sticky in press-man coverage, he’s fluid when flipping his hips, and he’s solid in off-coverage. The one question is his athleticism because people question his ability to make up ground at the next level. When he tests well in Indianapolis, he is going to fly up draft boards.
18) Cincinnati Bengals: JC Latham, OT Alabama- The Bengals need a right tackle with Jonah Williams hitting free agency, and Latham is a prototypical right tackle at the next level. He gains leverage with powerful strikes and a sturdy lower body. I question his ability to stay with elite athletes at the next level. However, if he gets his hands on edge rushers before they can flatten their rush, they rarely beat him.
19) Los Angeles Rams: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa- NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said he sees elite safety potential in DeJean, which is part of the reason I love this fit. If DeJean tests as an elite athlete for the safety position, his ball skills and his ability to close in off-coverage make him a really interesting player. However, I think he’s capable of just being an elite corner in a zone-heavy defense like the Rams have.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia- Mims is the type of tackle I am normally not a fan of. His footwork in his kickslide is okay, which leaves him vulnerable to elite athletes off the edge as a bigger tackle.
However, the reason I am making an exception for Mims is because he is excellent in the jump set. When he attacks defenders, his lower body tends to get set faster, allowing him to get his hands on defenders and bury them. In Pittsburgh’s offensive scheme, he would be a perfect match.
21) Miami Dolphins: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL Oregon- The interior offensive line of the Dolphins is getting gutted this offseason. If they need one or two entering the draft, I love the idea of them jumping on Jackson Powers-Johnson in round one. If you have followed my mocks in the past, you know I love offensive linemen who have played multiple positions in college. It shows the intelligence necessary to play at the next level. Powers-Johnson shows that intelligence in pass protection by double-teaming the correct player and picking up blitzers. He is also able to stay on balance against power rushers.
22) Philadelphia Eagles: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State- If the Eagles are going to let Hasson Reddick go via trade, replacing him with Jared Verse would be the perfect scenario. Verse’s get-off is outstanding, which allows him to dictate as a pass rusher. He can use his power to collapse the pocket, but he also uses his hands to chop down and beat tackles to the inside. If he tests well athletically, I think Verse could be the top edge taken in April.
23) Houston Texans: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas- Tank Dell proved last season that he can be a weapon in the slot. When Dell went down, Nico Collins stepped up and proved to be a quality option as well. To take their offense to the next level, they need a true number-one receiver. I expect them to be in the mix for Stefon Diggs if he’s moved, but if they miss, Adonai Mitchell would be a perfect fit in the back end of round one.
Mitchell is a red zone machine, he’s a monster on 50/50 throws, and he’s a quality route runner for a big-body receiver. This is a perfect fit, and definitely one that you could see on draft day in a few months.
24) Dallas Cowboys: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona- Keep an eye on Dallas moving up the board to nab a left tackle in this draft. Tyron Smith is unlikely to return to Dallas, making left tackle the biggest need of the offseason. Morgan is an interesting evaluation because he’s susceptible to power rushers, but his athleticism makes him elite in pass protection against edge rushers. If he can add some weight to his frame, he can be a top-tier tackle at the next level.
25) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers (from Packers): Byron Murphy II, IDL Texas- Murphy’s quick twitch ability is something I have talked about in my prediction mocks so far. The one area I disagree with pundits on is the concern about him lacking ideal size. Athletes up front who possess power and multiple moves have proven to be successful regardless of their stature. Murphy is that kind of player. The Chargers move up to land a defensive difference-maker.
The Trade: The Los Angeles Chargers trade the #37, #69, and #139 to the Green Bay Packers for the #25 and #204.
26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Junior Colson, ILB Michigan- It may not be the position of importance that it once was, but the elite defenses in this league have elite off-ball linebackers. This draft has a few elite linebackers, but my favorite is Junior Colson. During his time at Michigan, he showed the ability to read and react quickly in zone coverage, and he plays downhill with athleticism and poise. He’s a three-down linebacker at the next level, which the Bucs desperately need following the regression of Lavonte David and Devin White.
27) Arizona Cardinals (from Texans): Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson- Any cornerback that shows the ability to press and trail is going to be high on my personal board. Wiggins excels at both. I know some are going to be concerned about his unwillingness to tackle, but I always refer to Antonio Cromartie. Cro made a lot of “business decisions,” when tackling, but he had an incredibly productive pro career because he was an elite athlete and sticky in man coverage. Now, I understand that Cro is the exception, not the rule, but Wiggins is a really good athlete in his own right, and very worthy of a top 40 selection.
28) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (from Bills): Zak Zinter, IOL Michigan- Look, I could be wildly wrong on Zinter’s evaluation, but I’m willing to go down with the ship. I know he had a nasty leg injury, but broken bones heal. Zinter is elite in pass protection; he uses his hands to get into the chest of pass rushers and stand them up at the point of attack. He was a round-one player on my board before the injury, and if his medical checks out in April, I would take him in the 25-40 range.
The Trade: See Pick #9.
29) Detroit Lions: Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo- Mitchell is an interesting study because he was rarely challenged in 2023. His athleticism out of his break in off-coverage makes me think he can be an excellent cover-three corner at the next level. He’s able to trail receivers on go routes and he put up great numbers in 2022 when playing the ball. I’m not as high on him as others are, but he still projects as a quality starter at the next level.
30) Baltimore Ravens: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State- Tell me if you have seen this movie before; the Baltimore Ravens select an elite athlete with a really high motor, and they coach him into an incredibly productive pro. Chop Robinson has a great get-off, he can rush with power, and he can turn the corner around the edge. If I could scheme up a perfect scenario in the back end of this draft, it’s Chop Robinson going to Baltimore.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia- Brandon Aiyuk wants to be paid, and it seems like he may hit free agency after all. If so, the Niners are in a great spot in this draft to grab a receiver to replace him.
McConkey may not be this high on other people’s boards, but you cannot teach his understanding of route concepts. He also has YAC ability and terrific hands. In a Kyle Shanahan offense, McConkey would thrive.
32) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (from Chiefs): Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington- Seattle has some needs up front, but if I were GM John Schneider, I would be aggressive in free agency to fill those needs. With my round-one pick, I would be looking at Penix or JJ McCarthy to sit behind Geno Smith for a year or two.
Penix needs to clean up a lot of mechanical issues, and he has a tendency to go through progressions slowly. However, the tools are incredible. He throws a terrific 50/50 ball and a great deep ball, and he has a ton of power behind his throws. If given the chance to sit and learn for a year or two, Penix could be a quality starter at the next level.
The Trade: See pick #16.
Jordan Katz’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Post Super Bowl
With the Super Bowl having come and gone, we are officially on the road to the NFL Draft! There are lots of changes from the previous mock draft, including multiple teams moving up for a quarterback, and offensive linemen galore in this first round. There are a few more trades in this mock draft than the last one, so this will look more like a traditional mock draft for me. Let’s dive into it.
ROUND ONE
1) *TRADE* Washington Commanders (from Bears): Caleb Williams, QB USC- The Bears have played the early portion of the offseason perfectly. They have teased Caleb Williams as an absolute lock and are dangling Justin Fields in trade offers through the media. Not only does this allow them to gauge Fields’s market, but they can also gauge who is willing to throw some extra draft capital at them to move up for Williams.
That team still feels like the Washington Commanders. Following the hiring of Dan Quinn as Head Coach, the Commanders poached Kliff Kingsbury as Offensive Coordinator. Kingsbury coached Williams last season at USC, and the last time those dots were connected the Cardinals abandoned Josh Rosen for Kyler Murray. This hypothetical trade will pick up more steam over the next few months.
The Trade: Washington trades the 2nd overall pick, the 36th overall pick, a 2025 2nd round selection, and a 2025 4th round selection to the Chicago Bears for the 1st overall pick and the 143rd overall pick.
2) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (from Commanders): Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State- If the Bears had changed regimes this offseason, I would buy the Caleb Williams hype a lot more. When a regime change occurs, they like to bring in “their guy,” at quarterback. Justin Fields finished the season strong for the Bears, and now they have the chance to give him one of the best receiver prospects we have seen since AJ Green. For now, the Bears trading out of the first pick is still my prediction.
The Trade: See the Number One Pick.
3) New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU- New Head Coach Jerod Mayo is likely to bring a defensive mindset to the Patriots from the jump. Defensive coaches typically like quarterbacks that can avoid turnovers, and extend drives on third down. Jayden Daniels excels at both of these things. Daniels is a playmaker with his legs and has a terrific understanding of 50/50 throws. There are rumors of New England trading out of this pick, but if they keep it, they will likely pick a quarterback of the future.
4) Arizona Cardinals: Rome Odunze, WR Washington- Odunze is the darling of many draft pundits. While Harrison Jr. is the headliner of this receiving class, Odunze’s fluidity in his routes and ability to win 50/50 balls down the field has some thinking he could be the best of the bunch. The question is not whether Odunze is worthy of the selection; it’s if he will be.
Not only does Arizona need a playmaking receiver, but they also need one of the talented offensive linemen at the top of the board. If Harrison is available, it’s easy. If he’s not…
5) *TRADE* Atlanta Falcons (from Chargers): Drake Maye, QB North Carolina- Atlanta is a quarterback away from potentially having a stranglehold on the weakest division in football. They will likely take a look at Justin Fields, but should Chicago hold him, they will try to fly up this draft board for one of the top quarterbacks.
Maye had a roller coaster run at North Carolina, but the upside is outrageous. He throws the best deep ball in the draft and he creates with his legs. If he cleans up some easy mechanical fixes, he can be a superstar at the next level.
The Trade: Atlanta trades the 8th overall pick, the 43rd overall pick, and a 2025 2nd round selection to the Los Angeles Chargers for the 5th overall pick and the 106th overall pick.
6) New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR LSU- If the Giants are unable to grab a number one receiver this offseason, Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll need to be on the hot seat immediately. Nabers is a bonafide playmaker; his ability in routes is so much better than people realize because of his release off the line of scrimmage and his ability to set up defenders in the route. On top of that, he’s a playmaker with the ball in his hands. This is a layup for the Giants.
7) Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame- As mentioned in Mock Draft 1.0, the Titans are in a prime spot to land a franchise tackle in this draft to protect Will Levis. Joe Alt appears to be the consensus top tackle on the board, which makes him the selection here.
8) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers (from Falcons): Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama- We have now turned this mock draft completely on its head. Many think the entire top 10 are going to be on the offensive side of the ball. However, Arnold is a massive need for the Chargers.
Arnold is one of the big risers from the last mock draft. He’s a complete corner with excellent ball skills and he’s a very willing tackler. Daniel Jeremiah has him as his sixth-ranked player, and he’s likely not the only one connected in the football realm who loves Arnold’s game. It’s bold to have him as high as 5, but this is the time in the Mock SZN to be bold.
The Trade: See Pick #5.
9) Chicago Bears: Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State- The other big riser from a month ago to now is Taliese Fuaga. He has incredible power at the point of attack, and many think he can be a left tackle at the next level if needed because of his footwork. Fuaga could be in the mix for the top tackle if he puts on a show in Indianapolis next month.
10) New York Jets: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State- Fashanu has dropped a bit on some boards because people feel that he walls off defenders in the run game instead of finishing, which is accurate. They also feel his lower body has some stiffness when he’s facing some athletic pass rushers. This is where we need to have a conversation.
His technique may not be picture perfect; fine. The man did not allow a sack for two straight seasons! What are we even doing here? Fashanu is a slam dunk, and anything on the contrary is insane.
11) Minnesota Vikings: Byron Murphy II, DT Texas- Byron Murphy’s quick twitch ability as a pass rusher has him coveted by many in the middle of this draft. Minnesota needs a few things on the defensive side of the ball, so they could go several directions here on draft day. There are also rumblings of the Vikings looking for an heir to Kirk Cousins’s throne, so keep an eye on that as we get closer to the draft.
12) Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB Oregon- Another pick that is staying the same from Mock Draft 1.0. Bo Nix excels in the short to intermediate passing window, and he has NFL-level athleticism. In a west coast scheme like Sean Payton’s, Nix stands a great chance to be successful at the next level.
13) Las Vegas Raiders: Troy Fautanu, OL Washington- Vegas needs a lot of help on the offensive side of the ball. They need a future quarterback, but I think they look to trade back into round one to accomplish that task. At 13, a well-rounded offensive lineman like Fautanu who can play guard or tackle at the next level makes more sense.
14) New Orleans Saints: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia- Bowers is the mystery of the first round. He’s a do-it-all tight end with YAC ability and can make a day-one impact on any offense. The problem is that high-profile tight ends have not had the best run of late. If he makes to New Orleans, which needs a playmaker to pair with Chris Olave, he should be the selection.
15) Indianapolis Colts: Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA- The opportunity to select the top edge player at 15 rarely happens in drafts. Latu is a well-rounded pass rusher and has the best move-set by far of any edge rusher in this draft. If he tests well at the combine, he is going to fly up draft boards.
16) *TRADE* Dallas Cowboys (from Seahawks): JC Latham, OT Alabama- This is a terrific offensive line class, but that does not impact the necessity for the Dallas Cowboys to make sure they snag the player of their choice. Tyron Smith is in the latter stages of his career, and they could use a replacement.
JC Latham is better served on the right side at the next level, but his ability in the run game and his power at the point of attack is going to be very attractive to Head Coach Mike McCarthy.
The Trade: Dallas trades the 24th, 56th, and 87th overall selections to the Seattle Seahawks for the 16th overall pick and the 119th overall pick.
17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU- Calvin Ridley is unlikely to return this offseason, which means the Jags receiving core goes from average to thin. Brian Thomas Jr., is the “best of the rest,” at the receiver position in this draft. He wins from the slot and the boundary, and he scored a nation-best 17 touchdowns this past season. That red zone target is something the Jaguars desperately need.
18) Cincinnati Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia- Offensive line is the Bengals’ biggest need this offseason. Many are extremely high on Mims because he has a massive frame and powerful strikes. He has elite length and can re-anchor well. Despite some injury concerns, Mims should go in the first 40 picks.
19) Los Angeles Rams: Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama- The Rams revamped defense played well in 2023. Adding more defensive weapons this offseason could help them take a step forward next year. Turner has a great first step and he can dip-and-bend around the edge with the best of them. He just happens to be inconsistent, and he struggled at times this year as the primary pass rusher. When he’s right, he’s a force.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona- Morgan is a really interesting prospect. He is a fluid mover in his kickslide and can cut off athletic edge rushers easily. The concern is the lack of power in his punches. He walls off defenders rather than attacking them. If he can add some power to his frame, he could be a really good left tackle at the next level.
21) Miami Dolphins: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL Oregon- Around this time last year NFL fans became more familiar with the names of Joe Tippmann and John Michael Schmitz. This year, that name to know is Jackson Powers-Johnson.
Powers-Johnson has experience at multiple spots up front and he’s an excellent pass protector along the interior. This may be a little high for him, but Powers-Johnson is going to go in the first 40 picks in April.
22) Philadelphia Eagles: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma- I’m surprised at the amount of buzz on Guyon and Amarius Mims given their lack of tape. What it goes to show all of us is the way NFL teams think. If there is a guy with gifted athleticism and length, they believe they can coach them into a quality NFL player. Guyton has those physical gifts, and does show a lot of fluidity in his lower body. The beauty of this fit is that he can sit behind Lane Johnson and learn the finer points of offensive line play.
23) Houston Texans (via Browns): Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL Illinois- Newton is a little undersized, but he can do it all along the interior. He’s quick off the ball, he’s got a quality moveset of rips and spins, and he understands how to set up opposing linemen to win the rep. Newton may lack elite athleticism, but the dude produces at every turn. Some team is going to get a steal in the back end of round one or the top of round two.
24) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (from Cowboys): J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan- McCarthy is going to have to sit initially (perfect for the Seahawks who have Geno Smith for one more go) because he struggles to take the top off the defense and has a tendency to force throws into unrealistic windows. However, there is a lot of upside here.
McCarthy understands how to check the ball down, he’s terrific at off-platform throws, and he has a live arm. If given the chance to sit and learn how to read coverages better, McCarthy could be an elite game manager at the next level.
The Trade: See #16.
25) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (from Packers): Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington- The most polarizing of the quarterbacks in this draft is going to be Michael Penix Jr. The good is phenomenal; he throws a terrific 50/50 ball, he understands back-shoulder placement, and he can let it rip down the field. The bad is horrific; his footwork is poor which causes wild throws, he doesn’t go through progressions, and he’s inconsistent on the “layup” throws. His chances at the next level are going to be solely based on where he winds up.
The Trade: Las Vegas trades the 44th overall pick and a 2025 2nd round pick to the Green Bay Packers for the 25th overall selection.
26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Edgerrin Cooper, ILB Texas A&M- This off-ball linebacker class is too good to not see one sneak into the first round. Cooper is an elite athlete who excels in man coverage and can also rush the passer. He’s a game wrecker in the middle, and Head Coach Todd Bowles would love to select a chess piece at the second level of the defense.
27) Arizona Cardinals (from Texans): Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa- DeJean has made a lot of headlines during this offseason already (if you know, you know), but they are warranted. He drives out of his break incredibly well, he’s got good ball skills, and he’s a very willing tackler. He’s incredibly worthy of a first-round selection. Arizona also needs secondary help, so the fit works as well.
28) Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas- One of the more interesting sagas of this offseason will be Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo Bills. Regardless of the outcome, the Bills need a real number two receiver. Gabe Davis is up and down, and he likely doesn’t return in free agency anyway.
Mitchell is a really interesting prospect. He’s a fluid mover for a big-body receiver, he adds an element in the red zone, and he’s a better athlete than he’s given credit for.
29) Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama- I have maintained that McKinstry is going to skyrocket after he tests well at the combine. Right now, many are questioning if he has the straight-line speed to trail receivers at the next level. Those questions will be answered next month, good or bad.
30) Baltimore Ravens: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State- This feels like a yearly occurrence with the Baltimore Ravens. Some guy who has no business sliding down the draft board falls into their lap and becomes a star player.
Some feel that Verse is the top edge player in the class because of his versatility and ability to win reps from multiple spots along the defensive front. He would thrive in the Ravens’ defense.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo- Ball skills, elite athleticism, and excels in off coverage; that is the holy trinity for San Francisco cornerbacks. Mitchell fits that mold. If he makes it to this selection, the Niners will sprint to the podium.
32) Kansas City Chiefs: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State- Robinson is an interesting evaluation because there is a lot of upside as a pass rusher despite average athleticism. He has a great get-off, and he understands leverage and how to use it to his advantage. He may not have a high ceiling like most first-round edge rushers, but he should be a very productive pro.
Jordan Katz’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
My friends, it is that time of year… MOCK DRAFT SZN HAS RETURNED! This draft is the most intriguing draft I have seen in quite some time. There might be as many as six first-round quarterbacks, and many draft experts have more first-round grades in this draft than normal. On top of that, there are multiple generational talents and a controversy around the first overall pick!
As we attempt to sift through the chaos of what will be the 2024 NFL Draft, a few ground rules to remember (or to know if you are new to my mocks). First off, remember that this is just what I think will happen. I will eventually release a mock or two based on my evaluation of players, but this mock is strictly what I think would happen if the draft was tomorrow.
In most of my mocks, I include a fair amount of trades. To me, predicting a mock without trades is silly because trades always happen, and anyone who says they “cannot predict trades,” is lying. I do this for fun and even I usually have a decent idea of the teams looking to trade out or move up; there is enough information out there to make educated guesses.
However, in this mock, I only have one trade because this draft has so much uncertainty. Will Chicago stick with Justin Fields? How many QB-needy teams will be aggressive in this draft to land their guy? Could a team fly up the board for one of the impact wide receivers? Will the Jets address the offensive line in free agency or the draft? Okay, that last one is a personal problem, but you get the point.
As the offseason takes shape and the draft becomes more clear, I will include more trades. For now, I just saw one that was obvious to me. And yes, it kicks off our Mock!
ROUND ONE
1) *TRADE*- Washington Commanders (from Bears via Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB USC- It has been over 30 years since the number one overall pick was traded in back-to-back years, butwe might be headed down that path. Justin Fields has been up and down during his time in Chicago, but with the regime in Chicago staying intact, they will likely try to build around Fields this offseason. Chicago was 5-3 down the stretch, and regimes are reluctant to replace a guy they selected when he has flashed.
On the other hand, Washington is cleaning house, which means the new regime will likely want, “their guy,” at quarterback instead of Sam Howell. Because Washington is in the top three, not only can they trade up using fewer assets, but Chicago can grab a star player for the future as well (remember the Mitchell Trubisky trade?)
Caleb Williams is becoming a polarizing player. He’s not the slam dunk first-overall pick many thought he was, and he has been in the media for some “off the field,” concerns as well. However, the talent is undeniable. His ability to make off-platform throws is bananas, and there is not a throw on the field he cannot make from a clean pocket. In my opinion, he is a more polished Patrick Mahomes out of college.
The question I have is, can that guy elevate the players around him from day one? Mahomes sat for a reason; he took a lot of chances and had to learn the finer points of QB play. Would Williams benefit from the same situation? More importantly, will he be allowed to sit by the ownership of the team that picks him?
2) *TRADE*- Chicago Bears (from Commanders): Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State- Chicago trading out of the top spot, acquiring a couple of current and future day two selections, and still selecting the consensus top player in the draft would be a home run of a move. Harrison Jr. may be the most hyped receiver prospect since Julio Jones; he’s 6’3 with phenomenal game speed, he wins at the line of scrimmage with ease, and he’s a “YAC,” threat every time he catches the ball.
3) New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB North Carolina- Whether Bill Belichick stays with a GM at the helm or is let go, chances are a new quarterback is going to be brought into Foxborough this offseason. While I would attempt a longer rebuild and trade out to acquire assets, Drake Maye is also my top quarterback in this draft class. Maye was used horribly at North Carolina, and it reminds me of how poorly Justin Herbert was used at Oregon. Maye can create plays outside the pocket, he delivers a phenomenal deep ball, and at 6’5, he’s the prototypical quarterback build. He has all the characteristics of a franchise quarterback if put in the right situation.
4) Arizona Cardinals: Malik Nabers, WR LSU- Arizona desperately needs a number one wide receiver this offseason. Fortunately for them, this draft has three or four at a minimum.
Nabers is an elite “YAC,” player and his ability to separate off the line of scrimmage allows him to win from the slot and the boundary. His route running is also more complete than people realize. In the Cardinals’ spread offense where versatility is vital, Nabers is a great fit.
5) Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame- Alt and Olu Fashanu are the runaway top tackles in this draft class. It will come down to personal preference to see who goes first. Alt has a ridiculous frame (6’8!), he’s light on his feet, and he allowed just 16 pressures in over 1,000 snaps at left tackle for the Fighting Irish. He is a “can’t miss,” prospect in my mind, and his athleticism might catapult him into being the top tackle selected.
6) New York Giants: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State- The Giants will definitely address offensive line in this offseason, and an elite pass protector in Fashanu seems like the slam dunk selection. In his entire collegiate career, Fashanu did not allow a sack, and he only allowed 11 pressures in about 400 snaps. This is another “can’t miss,” prospect and the top player on my personal board.
7) Tennessee Titans: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia- This may look a little high for Mims, but he is the kind of offensive line prospect NFL teams fall in love with. He’s a mauler in the run game, and when he gains leverage at the point of attack, it is game over for edge rushers. His footwork does need a little work in pass protection, but Mims has the ideal size, frame, and power for a prototypical right tackle in today’s NFL.
8) Atlanta Falcons: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU– The race for the third QB taken will be the highlight of the draft season. Jayden Daniels is the consensus top option as of now, but Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. will also get consideration. All three were Heisman Trophy contenders this year, and all three have transferred from other schools, showing the ability to learn multiple systems.
The appeal of Daniels is the extra playmaking ability he offers. He’s better than the other two when it comes to off-platform throws, and his performance per attempt, which many care about in terms of translating to the NFL, is off the charts over the last two years. The upside of Daniels has him in the front running for the third quarterback.
9) Chicago Bears: JC Latham, OT Alabama– The Bears must add starters to their inept offensive line this offseason. Latham looks like a prototypical right tackle, but he has experience at guard as well, which usually translates to NFL-level intelligence. He also mauls people in the running game, which fits with Tennessee’s offensive ideology of controlling the clock.
10) New York Jets: Rome Odunze, WR Washington- The story of the Jets offseason is going to be how they address their needs on the offensive side of the ball. My guess is they look to solidify the offensive line through free agency and veteran pickups. They are outside the range for Fashanu and Alt, and the wide receivers at the top are incredibly polished.
Odunze had a massive season at Washington, showing off route running and elite speed at 6’3. His ball skills are next level and he’s a great 50/50 player. In an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, he is a perfect fit.
11) Minnesota Vikings: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa- Despite having a season-ending injury in November, DeJean still seems to be on track to be the top cornerback selected in April. He’s sticky in man coverage because of his ability to flip his hips and trail receivers. Minnesota desperately needs a number one corner, so this is a perfect match.
12) Denver Broncos: Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington- I’m not buying the rumors that Penix is a second or third-round guy. Penix has made massive strides at Washington despite his injury history. His deep ball is phenomenal, he understands 50/50 ball placement as well as anyone in this draft, and he finds a way to make some ridiculous back-footed throws in the fact of pressure. Head Coach Sean Payton will love Penix’s ability to get the ball out quick and stretch the ball down the field.
13) Las Vegas Raiders: Bo Nix, QB Oregon- Five quarterbacks in the top 15 may not be the buzz at the moment, but there is a good chance we are headed that way. Nix had a gigantic season at Oregon, showing the ability to manage a quick hitter offense that puts the ball in playmakers’ hands early and often. Even though Aidan O’Connell has flashed at times, I doubt Vegas will enter 2024 with him as the starter. They are in a great position in this draft to land their quarterback of the future.
14) New Orleans Saints: Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA- Latu is one of the biggest risers from this college football season. His production was off the charts the last two years and his technique on the edge matches the box score scouting. Latu uses his hands well to set up a bevy of moves; he’s deemed the “technician,” of the top edge rushers. If his athletic testing matches his tape, he could be EDGE1 in April.
15) Indianapolis Colts: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia- Bowers is one of the most talented players in this draft, and many think he can go in the top 10 despite being a tight end. He’s a very willing blocker, he’s a playmaker with the ball in his hands, and he separates using size and athleticism. Giving Anthony Richardson a safety valve in 2024 makes a lot of sense if Bowers makes it this far.
16) Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OL Washington- Fautanu was the blindside protector of the best collegiate offense in the nation. He was often left on an island at tackle and rarely allowed any semblance of pressure because of his footwork and powerful hands at the point of attack. With guard experience as well, many see him as a Zack Martin type at the next level, making him a perfect fit for a young emerging offensive line in Seattle.
17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State- First-step off the snap of the ball is vital for a pass rusher, and not many in this draft are quicker off the line than Verse. He also possesses some big-time power for a pass rusher. The Jaguars could not get to the passer in 2023, and it’s one of the reasons they are not playing playoff football. Verse can help with that immediately.
18) Cincinnati Bengals: Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL Illinois- Taking interior line play is not a sexy round-one selection, but Newton is a special talent. He stacks and sheds as well as anyone to come out in recent memory, and he has a great move-set as a pass rusher. If he wasn’t undersized, Newton would be a top-10 lock. Cincinnati gets a steal at 17.
19) Green Bay Packers: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama- I know the ball skills aren’t exceptional, but I do not understand the lack of buzz around McKinstry as a prospect. Any defensive back who excels at the little things (tackling well, not falling for the QB’s eyes in off-coverage, footwork out of his break, etc.) is a first-round corner in my book. On top of that, McKinstry has elite athleticism and terrific closing speed. McKinstry and Jaire Alexander would be a phenomenal cornerback duo.
20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State- Robinson’s dip-and-bend ability off the edge will be very appealing to teams in the back end of the first round. His athletic testing can catapult him into a different stratosphere in terms of draft talk because he has an elite get-off on tape. A Todd Bowles defense would be an avenue for him to thrive at the next level.
21) Arizona Cardinals (via Texans): Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama- Turner doesn’t pop off the page like some Alabama pass rushers from years past, but he’s technically sound in both the run and pass game and does possess some explosive athleticism. He has an incredibly high floor as a prospect, but he was not as impactful in 2023 without Will Anderson opposite him. That will have many questioning his ceiling at the next level and could lead to a draft day slide.
22) Los Angeles Rams: Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama- Arnold had the flashier season of Alabama’s cornerback duo on tape. His ball skills are excellent, he reads and reacts well in off-coverage, and he’s smooth in and out of his backpedal. He feels best served in a zone-heavy defense, which could limit the teams willing to take him early in the draft. However, someone like Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who varies coverages a lot, could allow Arnold to flourish early while his man cover skills improve.
23) Pittsburgh Steelers: Keon Coleman, WR Florida State- This is a bold prediction for January 8th, but the Steelers will move on from both Diontae Johnson and George Pickens this offseason. Johnson’s play is beyond inconsistent and Pickens has become a locker room question mark.
Should they move on from even one of these two, receiver becomes a massive need. Keon Coleman excels in 50/50 situations and he’s a fantastic red zone target at 6’4. His physicality in his routes makes him a very intriguing prospect.
24) Buffalo Bills: Xavier Worthy, WR Texas- My early offseason bold prediction is that the Bills and Stefon Diggs are headed toward a divorce. Diggs is never one to hold back on his frustration with the amount of touches he’s getting in the offense. The ball did not find him in the second half of the season at all.
Should Diggs play elsewhere in 2024, the Bills will need a new number-one target. Worthy’s ability to take the top off the defense and make plays with the ball in his hands would be an excellent fit in a Josh Allen-led offense.
25) Philadelphia Eagles: Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M- The second level of the Eagles’ defense may be their biggest liability on the entire roster. Fortunately for them, this is a very good off-ball linebacker class.
Cooper appears to be the best of the bunch because he’s an elite athlete who thrives when playing downhill against the run. He’s also got the ability to rush the passer, compiling 10 sacks in 2023. He feels like a perfect fit in Philly’s aggressive style of defense.
26) Kansas City Chiefs: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona- Chiefs fans might be shocked that this is not a pass catcher, but I think KC will address that in free agency. Their run of selecting young receivers has not produced the success they thought it would.
Offensive line has also been a concern in Kansas City, which is why Jordan Morgan makes sense. He’s best in pass protection, showing elite footwork and the ability to re-anchor. Morgan can step in and play left tackle immediately for KC.
27) Houston Texans (via Browns): Byron Murphy II, IDL Texas- Murphy’s quick twitch ability along the interior would be a perfect fit in Head Coach Demeco Ryans’s defense. However, watch out for Houston trading up in this draft. CJ Stroud has emerged as a franchise quarterback, and most teams look to maximize their window when they have a QB on a rookie deal. Houston could look to move up the draft board for a true impact player if the situation presented itself.
28) Detroit Lions: T’Vondre Sweat, IDL Texas- To be honest, Detroit likely trades out of round one on draft day to a team that needs to trade back into round one for a player they covet. However, because that is so hard to predict this far out, they address the interior of their defensive line here.
Sweat is a mammoth inside (6’4 364!) and he shows a ton of quickness for someone of his size. He can win one-on-ones as a pass rusher and he’s stout against the run; proving to be more than just a space eater in the middle. He should help Detroit’s defense immediately.
29) Miami Dolphins: Nate Higgins, CB Clemson- Miami needs to pair a corner opposite Jalen Ramsey to elevate their defense to the next level. Higgins has the length and athleticism to play the boundary at the next level. His hips flip effortlessly in man coverage and he can trail incredibly well. I like this fit in Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense.
30) Dallas Cowboys: Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas- Tony Pollard proved, without a shadow of a doubt, that he is not an RB1. Fortunately for Dallas, there are a few in this draft.
Brooks is viewed as the best pure runner in this class, particularly between the tackles. He also has very little tread on his tires, which I think matters when the top of the class is as close as it is.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State- Fuaga is a favorite of many draft pundits because of his ability to gain leverage at the point of attack. His power is undeniable and he destroys defenders in the run game. If his lower body can become more technically sound, he could be a draft-day steal.
32) Baltimore Ravens: Zak Zinter, IOL Michigan- This could be the boldest prediction of this early mock, but I think teams will wisen up on Zinter by the time the draft rolls around. Yes, Zinter did break his leg in November, but bones heal. If he shows good progression through his rehab, he should go in round one. His game is complete, he understands stunts and twists, and he can start immediately pending medicals.
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