Dexter Lawrence
2019 NFL Combine Winners and Losers
With the NFL Draft prospects departing from Indianapolis, it’s time for a recap on how the two days went for both sides of the ball. Even though the NFL Combine is a point of contention among the draft community, the Combine serves a purpose. It is meant to seek out weaknesses in a player, both in terms of technique that you see on the field during the drills, as well as their fluidity as an athlete.
The question that trips up scouts and analysts is how much do you weigh what you see in Indianapolis against the tape? If an offensive lineman looks stiff in the hips during the drills, do you knock him down a peg even if his tape is good? Let’s say a wide receiver shows an elite 40 time, but struggles with the 3-Cone drill. Where does that put his athletic score? Does a defensive lineman that crushes the 3-Cone get a pass if he struggles in the 10 yard split because he has bad technique on his 40 yard dash?
Regardless of your views on the combine, down here there’s always winners and losers, and you don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of that line (to paraphrase Bruce Springsteen). So with that in mind, here’s who I feel were the winners and losers of the Combine this weekend.
Day One Winners (RBs and OL)
1- Chris Lindstrom, Garrett Bradbury and Erik McCoy: The top players along the interior really stepped up and made their presence felt this weekend. Garrett Bradbury and Chris Lindstrom were big breadwinners, dominating the athletic testing and showing elite level fluidity in their hips and ankles during the drill portion of the combine. I thought Erik McCoy stayed stride for stride with Bradbury throughout the day as well, and he remained my top center in this draft. All three of these guys should be quality starters at the next level.
2- Josh Jacobs: How do you win the combine without participating? When the rest of the position group performs incredibly average. Jacobs was easily most people’s RB1, but there was some buzz around the running backs you could get in rounds two and three, like Damien Harris, David Montgomery and others.
However, none of the potential three down backs tested well enough to challenge Jacobs for the top spot. This makes Josh Jacobs even more of a commodity come April, and a potential Top 20 lock.
3- Miles Sanders and Justice Hill: Keeping in mind the aforementioned analysis about the running backs, there were two players that did shine at the position. Sanders and Hill showed explosive athleticism, and both players on tape are shifty backs that show explosiveness in the open field. Sanders in particular is a favorite of mine. He’s a willing blocker and a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield. Teams should look at both of these guys as game changers out of the backfield in the pass game.
Day One Losers
1- Elijah Holyfield: Not many players had a worse combine than Elijah Holyfield. Holyfield tested extremely poorly during the athletic portion of the combine, with the pinnacle being a 4.79 and a 4.81 in the 40 yard dash. Even as a bigger back, you have to be able to show quality quickness and some breakaway ability. Holyfield showed none of that. His stock is definitely down.
2- Greg Little: This isn’t a shocker for me, but Little tested extremely poorly. His tape was constantly underwhelming because the supposed five star recruit and big time athlete never showed up. This weekend, Little confirmed that he is a right tackle at the next level, and he needs to be developed even further He was too stiff during the drills and too slow during the athletic tests.
3- Wisconsin Offensive Linemen: The buzz on the Wisconsin players was already low heading into this weekend. After the on field drills at the Combine, their collective stock might have dipped even further. David Edwards was a little high out of the stance when hitting the pads, and he was a little stiff in the hips during the other drills. The same goes for Michael Dieter. While I think Edwards still gets drafted between the third and the fourth round because of his intelligence at the position, this could be a rough go for a group that was deemed the best offensive line in college football just six months go.
Day Two Winners (QB, WR and TE)
1- Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins: The top QB’s had themselves a good weekend. First off, we have to start with the most anticipated measurement in the history of the combine. Kyler Murray came in at 5’10 and over 200 pounds, then decided to call it a Combine because he physically couldn’t help his draft stock any further. Now some will question his decision not to throw, and we’ll get to that later on in the article (Big J tease right there). The reason he didn’t is because he couldn’t further his draft stock by throwing. All the rumors were surrounding his measurements. People were questioning if Murray would come in over 5’9. Once he matched Russell Wilson, the only way his draft stock could fall is if he stunk it up during the drills throwing to receivers he didn’t know. So he took his paycheck and exited stage left.
On the other hand, Dwayne Haskins chose to let it rip, and boy did it work out. The ball popped effortlessly out of his hands. At least once a drill he showed some elite level anticipation, which was his big question mark for me. There were definitely still some questions on my end, a few throws were behind guys and a tad late. The other Quarterbacks were so average though, that Dwayne Haskins looked elite. He’s a top ten lock.
2- DK Metcalf and AJ Brown: The Ole Miss duo absolutely crushed the Combine. Metcalf’s freakish performance has been well documented, but that doesn’t mean it’s being over exaggerated. His athletic testing was otherworldly for his size. Don’t get trapped into his slow three cone either. This dude sinks his hips on tape and gets a clean release almost every time. Metcalf is an elite wide receiver at the next level if he stays healthy, and that was confirmed this weekend.
AJ Brown was someone who I thought would test much better than people realized. Not to brag, but he proved me right. Brown had a sub 4.5 40 and almost a 37 inch vertical. He could definitely wind up in the first round of my personal mock draft, and you should see him off the board in the first 50 picks come April.
3- N’Keal Harry and Hakeem Butler: Speaking of receivers, N’Keal Harry and Hakeem Butler put to rest any questions about their ability to win down the field. Harry was a quality prospect before this event, the one thing that he needed to answer to put himself into the round one conversation. He did that, so expect to see Harry off the board on day one.
Butler might have been the most impressive player in this position group not named DK Metcalf. At 6’5 he posted a 4.48 40 yard dash, a ridiculous number for someone of that size. I still have reservations about his tape; he often has drops and double catches. With that being said, I’d be shocked if Butler made it out of round two.
4- Noah Fant: TE1 is a legitimate conversation now. If you’ve read my mock drafts, you know I’ve had Fant higher than TJ Hockenson from day one because Fant does more in the passing game without losing a step as a blocker. Fant blew the combine away, testing through the roof and showing clean cuts in and out of route combinations on the field during the drills. TJ Hockenson had a great day in his own right, but a 4.51 40 yard dash and a 6.81 3 Cone drill have teams salivating at the idea of selecting Noah Fant.
5- Parris Campbell: Campbell was going to be extremely fast, so it’s not his athletic testing that wowed me. It’s how smooth he was during the drills. I didn’t love his route running on tape, and I thought he had some double catches as well. Campbell showed none of that this weekend. I will have to go back and rewatch Campbell’s tape because he showed none of the weaknesses I thought he would. Expect to see him go off the board early in a month or so.
Honorable Mentions: Tyree Jackson (ran a 4.6 at 6’7! He also flashed at times during the drills, showing that massive arm strength), Emanuel Hall and Andy Isabella (both receivers absolutely torched the athletic portion of the event), Josh Oliver and Kahale Warring (two small school TE’s that could be day three steals)
Day Two Losers:
1- Kyler Murray: Here is the wrap up to the Big J tease I alluded to earlier in the article. Murray obviously put on water weight to get up over 200 pounds, and this is why he chose not to participate in any drills or athletic testing. He wasn’t comfortable doing so at the weight he was at. For me, that would stem the conversation of if he is able to take NFL punishment. Murray will still be fine in terms of his draft value, but I can see teams not being thrilled about this decision.
2- Kelvin Harmon: Harmon really struggled in the athletic portion of the combine, which was a major concern for him. Obviously Harmon was not a blazer at NC State, but he showed quickness in and out of cuts on tape and the ability to high point the ball. He did not show the measurables to have those skills translate against more athletic NFL Defensive Backs. I’m still sticking with him as a high end round two pick, but he fell down my big board a bit.
3- Isaac Nauta and Kaden Smith: Here’s the deal; if you run a 4.9 as a skill position player, you’re out. It’s that simple. Both these guys tested dreadfully slow this weekend. They gone.
Day Three Winners (DL and LBs)
1- Brian Burns: Burns has been in my top five players the entire draft process, and he dominated this weekend. He moves so fluidly for someone that is nearly 6’5, and weighing in at 249 did not slow him down at all. This dude is a freight train coming off the edge.
2- Montez Sweat: Speaking of freight trains coming of the edge, Montez Sweat confirmed every reason why I had him in my top ten players. His technique was never a question, but he proved this weekend he was a better athlete than he was given credit for. He answered questions about his ankle flexibility with a good 3 Cone Drill, and you can’t ignore his 1.55 10 yard split. A great showing for Sweat in Indy.
3- “The Big Fellas,” Dexter Lawrence and Khalen Saunders: Both these guys were deemed to be phenomenal athletes for their size, and they proved it. These two beasts rolled into the combine over 320 pounds (D-Law was 340) and both came in with impressive 10 yard splits for their size. In my opinion, their tape matches their combine performances.
Lawrence is a behemoth in the run game and he can collapse the pocket to help his teammates get to the passer. Saunders was moved all over the lot at Western Illinois, he even stood up at times and rushed from the edge. He’s explosive for his size with a great first step.
These two will be quality starters in the NFL.
4- Anthony Nelson: Here’s another edge player that I expected to test better athletically, and he proved me right. Nelson showed good ankle flexibility with a terrific 3 Cone, and he was a fluid mover during the on field drills. I had him a little too low on my previous big board, partially because I was hedging my bets. That won’t happen next time.
5- Blake Cashman: Cashman won the “I need to go watch this player ASAP,” award this week. In a weak linebacker class, he made himself some money. To list off the athletic testing, 4.5 flat on the 40, a 37.5’’ vertical, 10’2 on the broad jump, sub 7 on the 3 Cone and a 4.12 short shuttle. Supposedly the production is there on tape, which would make him a very attractive option for teams that miss out on the big three off ball linebackers.
Day Three Losers:
1- Jachai Polite: Polite is a puzzler. His tape is really impressive, and everything you heard out of the Florida camp about him was positive. Having said that, he didn’t interview well at all, and he tested even worse, posting a 1.71 10 yard split at 258 pounds. He wasn’t particularly great at the start of the on-field drills either, and then inexplicably stopped the workout with a hamstring injury. Polite’s tape should still keep him in the first 75 picks, but the former Gator has definitely lost the first round hype. A big story on draft day will be how far Polite falls.
2- Clelin Ferrell: Ferrell showed very little dip and bend ability during the 3 Cone and Short Shuttle, and his drills weren’t much better. Now this isn’t a surprise to many, but as someone who thought he was a better athlete than his tape showed, he drops down my board a bit.
I do still think he will be a very productive pro. He’s great against the run and he collapses the pocket by long arming tackles.
However, Ferrell has to fall because his ceiling is just not as high as some of the other defensive linemen in this draft. That was confirmed this weekend.
3- LJ Collier: I was never on the LJ Collier bandwagon because I wasn’t high on his tape. For those that were, the athletic testing should have you extremely concerned. Collier never looked fluid and struggled all throughout the day. Maybe he can bulk up and kick inside, but I don’t think he has the technique to do so.
Honorable Category of Confusion: Ed Oliver- Okay, we all knew Ed Oliver put on some weight to measure in bigger, and that’s why he didn’t want to run. However, he could’ve ran and done all the drills at that weight and still tested in at least the 80th percentile across the board. He was made for weekends like this. Heck, he posted a workout video this summer where he was doing linebacker and defensive back drills! His stock could have received a freebie boost this weekend, but alas, he refused. I’ll never understand why.
Day Four Winners
1- The Safeties: The safety class was deemed to be ridiculously weak, and day four could’ve gone real bad for them with Deionte Thompson and Nasir Adderley sitting out. However, players like Jonathan Abram, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Amani Hooker stepped up and showed some surprising athleticism throughout their portion of the Combine. It’s still not a strong class, but this group did surprise a bit.
2- Byron Murphy, Justin Layne, David Long and Rock Ya-Sin: Here’s why this group is so big; these four were the only players among the cornerbacks to put up even an average performance during the drills on the field.
Murphy was the cleanest in and out of his backpedal, he flipped his hips fluidly and he never lost momentum coming out of his T-Step in the “W-Drill.” He confirmed CB1 for me despite an average 40 time.
Layne is a long, athletic corner that stepped up and showed precision in his backpedal down the hash marks. He also tested very well athletically.
Long was the biggest winner of the combine, catapulting his draft stock with a clean backpedal and natural footwork. His tape is a bit confusing, but some team will gamble on him in day two.
Ya-Sin ran a solid 40 on his second run, but he started slow during the drill process. However, there’s a reason they call it “Temple Tough.” The former Temple corner got better as the day went on and confirmed the first round player I saw on tape.
Day Four Losers
1- The Cornerbacks Not Named Above: This group is by far the biggest loser of the combine. The question about the corners was simple; would the athletic testing match the collegiate tape and production? The answer was a resounding no. Almost every guy struggled with their backpedal, many players flipped their hips before the coaches asked them to, and the technique was just stiff across the board. This will become a massive storyline during the NFL Draft because these cornerbacks furthered the polarizing analysis about him.
2- Trayvon Mullen and Greedy Williams: These two cornerbacks are worthy of their own category because of how rough their days were. Mullen never looked comfortable during the drills. He was often flat footed and stiff in the hips. His tape was inconsistent, and that was confirmed this weekend. It’ll be interesting to see where he winds up.
Greedy Williams is the biggest culprit of the polarizing analysis. He came out of the blocks and ran a 4.38, a terrific time. Then he got in the drills and couldn’t get it right. He stumbled out of his backpedal and he flipped his hips early on three separate occasions, once coming out of the backpedal in the first drill and twice during the backpedal and weave drill. Then he announced that he had cramped up, and his day was done. The guy who is by far the toughest evaluation for NFL teams became even more of a question mark this weekend.
Jordan Katz 2019 Big Board 1.0: Part Two (26-50)
This is part two of my top 50 players for the 2019 NFL Draft. For part one, players 1-25, click the link. (https://draftstock.net/home/https-draftstock-net-2019-01-28-jordan-katz-2019-big-board-1-0-top-50-1-25/)
26) Dexter Lawrence, DT/NT Clemson: Lawrence is a behemoth along the interior. He’s a prototypical one tech, showing the ability to eat blockers and be dominant the run game. Lawrence has some upside as a pass rusher as well. While he wasn’t used that way at Clemson, I think he has the power to collapse the pocket and help out the edge rushers. Lawrence may not have elite upside, but he’s the one true NFL quality nose tackle in this draft.
27) AJ Brown, WR Ole Miss: I know many will think this is a little high for Brown, and I’ll admit this is pending a quality showing in Indianapolis in a month or so. However, Brown has unique ability out of the slot, and I think his quickness and precision in and out of cuts can allow him to separate on the outside as well. If he tests well and proves he’s more than just a slot receiver, and I think he will, Brown will prove to be another reliable target in a strong pass catching class.
28) Mack Wilson, ILB Alabama: Wilson is being a bit undervalued, in my opinion. He’s not Devin White athletically, but Wilson moves fluidly and flips his hips effortlessly in coverage. I think he can mirror TE’s at the next level and he can read in zone very well. Wilson also takes good angles to the ball and plays downhill with poise. He should be a quality linebacker at the next level.
29) Cody Ford, OT/OG Oklahoma: Offensive line in this draft isn’t wonderful, but Cody Ford is one of the bright spots. Ford is a unique athlete for someone with his size and stature (6’3, 340). He’s got quick feet, showing the ability to win in pass protection by beating the edge player to the spot. He needs to improve his hand placement, but I think Ford’s athleticism help him project to be a solid right guard or right tackle.
30) N’Keal Harry, WR Arizona State: Harry’s buzz has cooled recently, but I think that’s because he hasn’t been in the spotlight. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands and he wins with size and athleticism when the ball is in the air. If he tests well in Indianapolis and proves he can outrun NFL corners, Harry could wind up much higher on my board later on in the Draft Season.
31) Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama: I’m not as high on Jacobs as others, but there’s no question he’s the top running back in this draft. He’s slippery through the hole, his pad level is perfect on almost every carry,l and he has a powerful base, allowing him to break a number of arm tackles. Jacobs isn’t the best in pass protection, and since he can be a weapon in the pass game with his soft hands and route quickness, he will have to improve there to hit the evaluation that he’s at on many people’s big boards.
32) Irv Smith Jr, TE Alabama: Much like OJ Howard before him, Irv Smith’s ceiling in the NFL is higher than his usage rate at Alabama. He’s a big time athlete, a precise route runner, and he has good hands. He lines up all over the field and can create separation versus linebackers and safeties. Smith is yet another great tight end in this draft class.
33) Amani Oruwariye, CB Penn State: Oruwariye had a case of the good, the bad and the ugly during Senior Bowl week, but I still trust him as an early day two pick based on his tape. He shows good ball skills and a unique ability to mirror receivers for someone of his size and length. If he can become better at using his hands early in receivers routes, he could have a long, productive career ahead of him.
34) Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida: Taylor is a right tackle all day at the next level. He’s a mauler in the run game, gaining leverage with inside hands and strength in his frame. I know many think he’s an elite prospect, and while I’m not quite on board with that (his footwork in the vertical and 45 degree sets have me concerned against the athletic pass rushers he’ll see in the NFL), I do think he projects as a day two pick at right tackle.
35) Andre Dillard, OT Washington State: Dillard is a bit of a puzzler for me. He’s smart and he’s very good in pass protection, with the ability to counter both a first and second move from opposing edge rushers. He gains leverage with inside hands and even when he is beat physically, he can counter it. Having said that, the latter of that statement is the part that’s concerning. Despite his athleticism and solid footwork, he lacks the upper body strength to play at the next level. He’s often pushed backward and I think he’s susceptible to being long armed be defensive ends. So in short, I’m hedging here by giving him a late first/early second round grade. Dillard is either going to be much better than my evaluation because of his kickslide and ability to stall edge rushers, or his lack of power will have him in the bust category.
36) Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma: Murray is an interesting prospect. There’s a lot of things he does well. For instance, he shows NFL level anticipation when throwing to receivers, laying the ball on them as they come out of their break. He’s got a pretty big arm as well. Now obviously the go to criticism is going to be his size, and while it’s accurate, it’s not in the way many are portraying. The issue with small quarterbacks is having passes batted at the line of scrimmage, not necessarily them being under 6’2. Guys like Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson didn’t have that issue, but I think Murray does. Having said all of that, Murray is easily my QB1 this year because he throws into NFL windows and gets aggressive with the football.
37) Dalton Risner, OT/OG Kansas State: Risner was one of the biggest winners from Senior Bowl week. He was significantly better at keeping his hands inside the defender’s shoulder pads and that allowed him to really use his power in order to gain leverage. Risner is a leader too, his competitiveness was evident all week and his energy was infectious from what I saw. I like him as a starting right guard at the next level.
38) DeAndre Baker, CB Georgia: Baker has some athletic questions to answer, but technique wise he’s very solid. Press coverage is where he excels, and he can open it up and mirror receivers as well. My question is his straight line speed, and if he can improve his footwork out of his T-Step. Overall, Baker is a smart player that can play in multiple schemes and be an effective starter.
39) Joejuan Williams, CB Vanderbilt: Williams is a massive cornerback (6’2, 205) with the ability to press up on receivers and get them off their route combinations using his hands. I like Williams’ ball skills as well; he posted 13 PBU’s and 4 picks this season. He’s a good athlete as well, he’s got long strides and can run with receivers down the field. Williams can move up this board if his footwork improves out of his T-Step and he becomes quicker, although the latter is tough to do at this position for someone of his size.
40) Yodny Cajuste, OT West Virginia: I’m willing to go down with the ship on Cajuste. His draft buzz has cooled because scouts question his athleticism, but I think he has the capability to be a starting left tackle. I don’t think he’s refined to one scheme in particular, although he shows big time strength in the run game, with the ability to wall off defenders and gain leverage by keeping his hands high. However, I think he’s a better athlete in space than he’s given credit for, and his kickslide improved drastically in 2018. I see a lot of upside in whoever lands Cajuste in April.
41) Charles Omenihu, DL Texas: Omenihu was someone who came across my twitter feed because of others in the draft community that I follow. They talked about how he had an extremely quick first step and won with his hands in many different ways, and boy were they right. He can long arm guards and push the pocket back, and he can rip past guards as well. Omenihu has plenty of moves in his arsenal, which makes him another coveted commodity along the defensive line in this draft.
42) Jonathan Abram, SS Mississippi State: Abram is a quality player, but his best role is when he plays close to the line of scrimmage. He’s a big hitter with good instincts and a feel for shooting gaps. Sometimes he’s over aggressive, and he does miss plays. But for the most part, he flies to the ball and levies some punishing hits. In coverage, he plays a solid cover two, and has decent instincts in the back. Overally, Abram is a very quality strong safety prospect at the next level.
43) Trayvon Mullen, CB Clemson: Mullen is a weird study on tape. On the one hand, he has elite ball skills and he’s solid in man-to-man coverage. On the other hand, he should read and react better in off coverage, but he seems to be a step slow most of the time. Now it is true that he’s rarely challenged on tape, because he’s far and away the best secondary player on Clemson’s defense. The lack of targets does show his prowess in man coverage, but I still think there’s technical aspects he needs to work on to excel at the next level.
44) David Edwards, OT Wisconsin: There’s not a lot of buzz around David Edwards because his feet are not particularly quick. However, I think his intelligence at the position is second to none in this draft. Edwards is a converted tight end, and he played quarterback in high school as well. He’s become a quick study at tackle over the last few years, understanding who to pick up in blitzes and stunts. I would take Edwards over the majority of offensive linemen in this draft because his technique will continue to get better, and he’s smart.
45) Jerry Tillery, DL Notre Dame: Tillery put together a really good season at Notre Dame this past year. Despite some inconsistencies in his performances from game to game, I thought his size and length was apparent in each game. With a quick first step and the ability to beat one on one blocks along the interior, Tillery could be a nice fit for a team looking for a pass rushing three technique, either in a 4-3 at defensive tackle, or as a 3-4 defensive end.
46) Devin Bush, ILB Michigan: Bush surprised me when I broke him down on film. He’s a much better cover guy than I expected, showing the ability to flip his hips and recover with speed (Ohio State game has a great example of this). His strength is in the run game, he’s a punishing tackler and he fills gaps well. Despite this, it’s his inability to get off blocks that has him graded out in round two rather than round one.
47) Damien Harris, RB Alabama: The second Alabama running back on here is yet another potential three down back. Harris is a smart, patient runner and he’s a solid blocker as well. He’s not the most explosive runner, but he keeps his pads low and he excels in short yardage areas. I think Harris has the effectiveness similar to Mark Ingram at the next level, and in a weak running back class that puts him near the top of the list at the position.
48) Kaden Smith, TE Stanford: For those scoring at home, this is my fourth tight end in my top 50. Smith is an impressive athlete, winning with his size when the ball is in the air. He high points the ball extremely well, which makes him a big time red zone threat at 6’5. Smith needs to improve his route running, particularly his ability to separate out of the break, to really be a big time player at the next level. If Smith becomes better at the top of the stem, the sky’s the limit.
49) Deebo Samuel, WR South Carolina: Shoutout to my brother Justin with this one. For months we debated whether Samuel was a quality day two wide receiver, with the ability to separate with quickness and precision at the top of the stem, or if his double catches and lack of a catch radius would hamper his ability to win plays at the next level. After watching his highlights throughout Senior Bowl week, it’s safe to say I was wrong, and Justin was right. Samuel even showed the ability to high point the ball and grab passes outside what I thought was his range. He’s a solid day two pass catching option.
50) Oshane Ximines, EDGE/OLB Old Dominion: Ximines has big time ability off the edge. He’s technical in his pass rush, winning reps with his hands and quality moveset. He can counter a first punch from an offensive lineman, and he can long arm tackles as well. Ximines does gets bodied in the run game, and he’s not the most fluid athlete around the edge. Despite this, there’s some real upside here if he can improve his get off at the line and continue to refine his pass rushing moveset.
Jordan Katz: 2019 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
Ladies and Gentlemen, we are back! With the NFL officially at the midway point and the College Football season hitting its stretch run, it’s time to give a quick peek into where the prospects stand right now. This is always the toughest mock draft of the year because so many things change from now until April. The tape on college players for this season is also incomplete, so it’s hard to give a complete analysis at this stage in the game.
However, y’all know the drill by now (shoutout to those who realize why I chose “y’all,” in that spot)… MOCK DRAFT LYFE NEVER SLEEPS!
This upcoming draft features a ton of defensive line talent. You could see as many as ten defensive lineman go in the first round! Despite this, the rest of the draft is a giant mystery. Is there a quarterback worthy of a top ten selection? Is there a WR1 in this draft? Does the draft have enough depth for day three steals?
While these questions will be answered in time, for now, here’s a peek at some players I expect to be talked about as first round talents in the upcoming draft.
*Editor’s Note: The standings for this mock draft are based on my individual opinion of where teams will finish at the end of the season. Once I got to the playoffs (21-32), it’s based on seeding, not who would win each matchup. There is also no trading in this Mock Draft because it’s way too early to get that crazy.
ROUND ONE
1) Oakland Raiders: Nick Bosa, EDGE Ohio State- The Oakland Raiders and New York Giants are about to enter a good ole fashion NBA Draft style tank-off for the top pick. Regardless of who wins, I think both teams will get the players they covet.
Bosa is easily the top prospect in this draft. I have not seen an edge rusher as polished as Bosa on tape in my years of doing mock drafts. To me, his football ability at this level is better than Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney, as well as his brother, Joey Bosa. Depending on how he tests athletically, he could grade as one of my top players ever.
2) New York Giants: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon- Well, the Giants get their man, but is it the right man for the job? Personally, I currently do not have a quarterback worthy of a first round pick. The closest guy is Herbert, because he has the tools to be a NFL starter. He shows intelligence in the intermediate window, good arm strength and he’s athletic.
However, Herbert has been so inconsistent this year on film. I don’t think he takes enough chances with the football, which is a major concern. If a QB is not going to take a chance in college, how can we expect him to give a receiver a one-on-one opportunity in the NFL? The QBs that don’t take chances in college are the ones that don’t see “NFL open,” at the next level.
I’m breaking my rule here by putting a player that doesn’t have a first round grade this high, but let’s face it, the Giants are taking a quarterback this time around.
3) San Francisco 49ers: DeAndre Baker, CB Georgia- I’d call Baker “Denzel Ward 2.0,” but Baker might be better. He’s a wall in man coverage and he’s just as technically sound as Ward was, showing great fluidity when changing directions as well as the ability to trail receivers stride for stride. If he tests well in Indianapolis, he should be the top corner taken in April.
4) Arizona Cardinals: Jonah Williams, OT Alabama- Williams is technical enough to be worthy of a top five selection. As long as his athletic grade checks out, he should be the easy selection for Arizona, a team desperate for offensive line talent.
5) Buffalo Bills: Greedy Williams, CB LSU- This would be a case of a luxury pick, which is rare at the fifth spot. However, there’s not really an offensive player worthy of this selection and the Bills do need a number two corner. Williams has good size and build, and he possesses strong ball skills that would compliment his Bayou brethren Tre’ White.
6) Indianapolis Colts: Ed Oliver, DL Houston- For the second straight year, the Colts get the second best player to fall into their lap at the sixth overall pick (sound familiar Jets fans?). Oliver is an athletic freak, but because he’s an interior defensive lineman, he could fall in this draft if offensive players are over-drafted.
7) Cleveland Browns: David Edwards, OT Wisconsin- “Offensive Line University,” is back at it, with an entire starting unit of NFL talent. Edwards has been up and down this year, but there’s two things I like about him; he’s smart, and he’s shown great improvement for a guy who was recruited as a Quarterback. Offensive lineman that are intelligent almost always wind up being solid pros. In my opinion, I’ll take an intelligent offensive lineman over one that exclusively tests well athletically every time.
8) Denver Broncos: Dexter Lawrence, DT/NT Clemson- The Broncos run defense has been a shell of its former self in 2018. Lawrence is a rare talent at the nose tackle position. He can occupy space, he can beat interior lineman one-on-one, and he collapses the pocket very well.
9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Amani Oruwariye, CB Penn State- Oruwariye has emerged as CB3 on my board, which was a huge question mark for this draft class heading into the season. He has elite size, his ball skills are excellent, and he shows the smarts to excel in multiple different coverages. While this is a little high for him, but because the Bucs are desperate for secondary help, it makes sense.
10) Seattle Seahawks: Noah Fant, TE Iowa- If the Seahawks are truly committed to making this a team that wins with its offense as much as it does with its defense, then Russell Wilson needs some more weapons. Fant is the top pass catcher on my board because he has it all. He’s got the size and build, the elite athleticism to stretch the field, and he catches anything in his radius. Fant is a quality blocker as well.
Some might say the top ten is too high for a tight end, but with the emergence of guys like Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and other star tight ends, Fant is easily worthy of this selection.
11) New York Jets: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE Clemson- Ferrell has been one of the most dynamic pass rushers in college football over the past 18 months. His ability to dip and bend around the edge is impressive.
My one concern is his motor, not because he takes plays off, but because Clemson’s defensive front has not been as consistent as you would’ve expected.
Having said that, Ferrell is still a terrific talent, and the Jets are desperate for a pass rusher of his caliber.
12) Oakland Raiders via Dallas Cowboys: N’Keal Harry, WR Arizona State- Now that Jon Gruden has absolutely zero weapons for his franchise quarterback (who may also be on the move), it’s probably a good idea for the Raiders to draft some pass catchers.
Harry leads a group of wide receivers that will have a lot to prove throughout the draft process. Many question whether this group has a true WR1, but I think Harry’s combination of size and speed as well as his ability to high point the football make him the prize of this draft at the receiver position.
13) Detroit Lions: Brian Burns, EDGE Florida State- Burns is an elite pass rusher from a stand-up position. He shows a rare combination of length and athleticism, and possesses a ton of ways to get to the passer. I know the concern here is a 3-4 player going to a 4-3 scheme, but with the recent acquisition of Damon Harrison combined with Matt Patricia’s 3-4 background, Detroit can transition perfectly to accommodate their selection.
14) Miami Dolphins: Rashan Gary, DT Michigan- Many are projecting Gary as a 4-3 defensive end, but I think his skill set sets up much better as an interior lineman. He’s a terrific athlete and a big time run stuffer. There’s definitely parts of his game that need cleaning up (he’s not the most explosive pass rusher and his hands can sometimes sag), but Gary would be a plug and play on any team’s interior defensive line.
15) Atlanta Falcons: Dalton Risner, OT/OG Kansas State- Risner has been really strong in pass protection against the smaller, athletic ends that typically play in the Big 12. He has a great feel for the second level as well. I think he has room to grow technically, specifically with his pad level consistency, but Risner to me can play guard or tackle at the next level, which is a big weapon.
16) Tennessee Titans: AJ Brown, WR Ole Miss- Tennessee desperately needs pass catchers that can separate, and that’s exactly what Brown excels at. He’s incredibly quick and explosive with the football, two things the Titans really lack at wide receiver. Easy fit here.
17) Cincinnati Bengals: Josh Allen, OLB Kentucky- Allen really fell in this mock, which is upsetting because he’s one of my favorite players in this draft. He plays downhill with aggression and poise, ranges well sideline to sideline, and he’s got pass rush ability off the edge. Not to mention, he excels in off ball coverage as well. Cincinnati gets a big time steal here to play strong side linebacker.
18) Jacksonville Jaguars: Montez Sweat, EDGE/OLB Mississippi State- Obviously Jacksonville needs a quarterback, but there isn’t one worthy of a first round selection on my board.
Sweat isn’t the best athlete, but you can’t ignore production. He’s a smart pass rusher, he knows how to set up tackles with his hands and he has a solid move-set. I love the idea of Sweat playing the LEO linebacker in a 4-3, which is exactly where Jacksonville would put him.
19) Washington Redskins: Devin White, ILB LSU- White is an incredibly underrated prospect at the moment. He shows tremendous range and plays with passion and intensity. White can do it all from the middle linebacker spot and has the versatility to play outside as well. Washington’s linebacking core gets a major boost.
20) Carolina Panthers: Lukas Denis, FS Boston College- The Panthers secondary is improving, but it still needs a game changer in the backend. Denis has had a down year on the stat sheet, but he’s still been impactful in the BC secondary. On tape, he has good ball skills and shows NFL awareness from the single high position.
With current free safety Mike Adams playing his age 37 season, one would assume Carolina will be looking for his replacement this offseason.
21) Oakland Raiders via Chicago Bears: Tyler Biadasz, OG/OC Wisconsin- Oakland’s offensive line is a shell of what it once was. Biadasz is perfect at guard or center for a power blocking scheme, which is exactly what Gruden likes to run up front.
22) Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Murphy, CB Washington- I was blown away by Murphy’s ability to mirror receivers on tape. He lines up on the outside as well as in the nickel and does a terrific job of sticking receivers in man-to-man. This is a name to remember, Murphy could slide up a lot of people’s draft boards as the year goes on.
23) Green Bay Packers: Jachai Polite, EDGE Florida- Regardless of whether Clay Matthews is re-upped or departs in free agency, the Packers pass rush needs a jolt. Polite is an elite 3-4 edge rusher with a good ability to bend around the edge. He’s currently higher on my personal board than this mock draft, but I think that’s an accurate representation of what could happen come April. Because there are so many talented front seven prospects, you could see a lot of them fall in an attempt by teams to draft the limited talent at other positions.
24) Los Angeles Chargers: Jerry Tillery, DL Notre Dame- Tillery is a mammoth on the defensive front (he stands 6’7), but oddly enough it’s his quickness and first step that make him a highly touted prospect. The Chargers pass rush would become even better by adding an interior player like Tillery.
25) Houston Texans: Yodny Cajuste, OT West Virginia- Normally I’m not a fan of spread offensive lineman, but Cajuste has had a strong season thus far. He quick on his first step into his kickslide, and he’s handled athletic pass rushers well. Cajuste needs help in the run game, his pad level is often high and he doesn’t have a great feel for the second level. However, if he continues to shine in pass protection, it would be hard for teams to ignore him in the first 40 picks.
26) Philadelphia Eagles: Greg Little, OT Ole Miss- The Eagles have to find their next starting left tackle this offseason. Jason Peters is probably retiring after this season and Hal Vatai has been very subpar since his performance in the Super Bowl.
Little is lower on my board than most because too often I see him off balance and high with his pad level. However, he’s a former five star recruit and an impressive athlete. Little would be a great fit in Philly.
27) Baltimore Ravens: Christian Wilkins, DL Clemson- Best Player Available; an Ozzie Newsome special to kick off the post Ozzie Newsome era in Baltimore. Wilkins has a quick first step and a high motor. He’s very disciplined in gap assignments as well, a big key for players in the Ravens defense.
28) Green Bay Packers via New Orleans Saints: Jeffery Simmons, DL Mississippi State- The Packers front three has underwhelmed all year. Simmons would be an infusion of youth and athleticism into a front that desperately needs it.
29) Minnesota Vikings: Chris Lindstrom, OG Boston College- Underrated prospect alert! Lindstrom is a four year starter at BC and has a polished game up front. He gets to the second level, he has a low center of gravity so he’s rarely knocked back at the point of attack, and he has great footwork. Lindstrom should wind up higher on many people’s board as the draft process go on.
30) Kansas City Chiefs: Deionte Thompson, S Alabama- Thompson is a do-it-all safety that rivals some of the top safeties we’ve seen in recent drafts. He’s strong around the line of scrimmage, and he finds the ball well in the backend of the secondary. Kansas City needs playmakers in the secondary, and Thompson is just that.
31) New England Patriots: Kaden Smith, TE Stanford- If the Patriots truly want to start the process of replacing Rob Gronkowski, this is the year to do it. There’s multiple big time pass catching tight ends, including Kaden Smith who is a freakish athlete. He’s not the most fluid route runner yet, but he high points the ball well and he’s a tough cover for linebackers because of his speed.
32) Los Angeles Rams: Mack Wilson, ILB Alabama- If the Rams have a weakness, it’s their linebacking core. Wilson is one of the better off ball linebackers in this draft, showing good range and reaction skills on tape.
Then again, the NFL might force the Rams to forfeit their pick because they’re too good.
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