Dallas Turner
Jordan Katz’s NFL Mock Draft 4.0: Final
Zero hour is upon us and it is officially NFL Draft week! That means it is time for the final installment of our Mock Draft SZN.
I have made my typical mock trades in round one, and only round one because mocking trades in round two and beyond is impossible. There are a fair amount of changes from my most recent mock, including some surprising slides and a few different trades than I have been mocking to this point.
Let’s roll.
ROUND ONE
1) Chicago Bears (from Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB USC- Williams was the presumed number one overall pick almost all season. On draft night, the Bears will make it official. From the jump, I have said that Williams could be a generational talent if he were allowed to sit. However, that does not mean he will fail if he plays right away. The Bears have put a lot of weapons around him with the hope of those weapons helping him achieve early success.
2) Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU– Three days ago I went back to Drake Maye at this pick. At zero hour, I am going to lock in Daniels going second.
If you listen to the draft pundits talk about the debate here, they say that most people around the league have Daniels as the second quarterback off the board. The added dimension of his legs and the fact that he anticipates throwing windows better than Maye elevate him in the eyes of many.
3) New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB North Carolina– The Patriots are a popular trade-down candidate, and have been so for months. Here’s the problem; of the players that the Patriots have used a top 30 visit on, only Maye and Jayden Daniels are projected to go in the top 20 picks. Unless New England is wowed by an offer, they likely just pick whichever quarterback is here at three.
4) Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State- If the top 3 quarterbacks go 1-2-3, the Cardinals will hold the keys to the entire draft. They would be flooded with trade offers. The question they will have to answer is if any of the offers are worthy of them passing on drafting Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ultimately, the Cardinals likely stay put and select the generational talent in front of them. They also desperately need a number one receiver, which adds to their decision.
5) *TRADE* Minnesota Vikings (from Chargers): J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan- Minnesota is desperate to come away with one of the top quarterbacks in this draft. While they will try to move into the top three, the consolation will be to the Chargers at five for J.J. McCarthy. They simply can offer significantly more than the other teams in the conversation.
McCarthy is an odd fit for the Vikings. While he does have a lot of NFL traits, he’s inaccurate in areas where Head Coach Kevin O’Connell will want him to be successful. McCarthy struggles to complete the deep ball, and he is not great in the middle of the field either. Having said that, NFL teams love McCarthy’s arm talent, and someone is going to try to coach that talent into a quality starter.
The Trade: The Minnesota Vikings trade the #11, #23, and a 2025 3rd-round pick to the Los Angeles Chargers for the Fifth Overall Selection.
6) New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR LSU- If all four quarterbacks are off the board, wide receiver is a layup for the Giants. Now, some may argue it should be anyway, but that’s a different story.
Nabers is the guy if the Giants go receiver. He makes plays after the catch, and his route running is polished. I think Nabers is the Giants’ top non-QB on their board, even ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
7) Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame- The Titans have needed offensive line from day one of the draft season. Joe Alt is the premiere pass protector in the draft. His game is complete and he can play the left or right side. He also has a phenomenal collegiate resume against edge rushers.
8) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (from Falcons): Rome Odunze, WR Washington- Everyone has talked about teams like the Jets and the Bills making a move past the Bears to land Odunze. Here is my question; why wouldn’t Chicago move up one spot if they love Odunze that much? Chicago’s goal seems to be giving Caleb Williams as many weapons as possible. Moving up one spot to guarantee Rome Odunze would not cost them a lot of draft capital. It also feels like the right move given Keenan Allen’s age.
The Trade: The Chicago Bears trade the #9 and #75 to the Atlanta Falcons for the #8 and #109.
9) *TRADE* Atlanta Falcons (from Bears): Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama- Dallas Turner is the top edge rusher in the draft, and the Falcons desperately need a premiere pass rusher. They trade down, move up 30 picks in the middle of the draft, and select the player they would have taken at eight anyway.
The Trade: See Pick #8.
10) New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia- Both Peter Schrager and Daniel Jeremiah are locked into the Jets because of their connection to Joe Douglas. Both have said that the Jets’ first goal is to move up for one of Joe Alt, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Rome Odunze. In this mock, they struck out on trading up.
The Jets’ next move would be trying to trade down, but with two trades already inside the top 10, that feels unlikely to pull off.
That brings us to the pick. The buzz on Brock Bowers feels real, and both Schrager and Jeremiah have noted the Jets’ infatuation with Bowers. I think they have to pick him at 10 if they want him that badly.
11) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers: J.C. Latham, OT Alabama- If the Chargers do trade back, they likely select a tackle to fortify their offensive line. Latham can play right tackle from day one. He’s physical in the run game and when he can get his hands on edge rushers early in pass protection, he buries them.
The Trade: See Pick #5.
12) *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (from Broncos): Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama- If the Broncos can’t land one of the top four quarterbacks, they likely move back and try to recoup the second-rounder they lack in this draft. 12 is way too high for Michael Penix or Bo Nix. The Broncos need assets to continue building out this roster.
Philadelphia is known to get aggressive for a player they covet. James Bradberry was awful last season as the number two corner, and Darius Slay is 33 years old. This draft has two elite cover corners; Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell. The Eagles used a top-30 visit on Arnold, which is why he is the pick over Mitchell.
The Trade: The Philadelphia Eagles trade the #22, #50, and #120 to the Denver Broncos for the 12th overall selection.
13) Las Vegas Raiders: Troy Fautanu, OL Washington– The Raiders need a quarterback, but they signed Gardner Minshew to a two-year deal. Therefore, they can take a different position of need at this pick instead of reaching for a quarterback, and look for a QB later in the draft.
Fautanu can play multiple spots up front. That versatility is important for the Raiders, who will enter 2024 with a revamped offensive line from the previous year.
14) New Orleans Saints: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State- The Saints do need pass catchers as I have mentioned in my previous mocks, but they seem locked in to left tackle here in round one. Trevor Penning has been less than impressive, and this class has some elite left tackles, Fashanu being one of them.
15) Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo- This is a home run scenario for the Colts. I had them attempt to move up for Mitchell multiple times in this mock. To land a long, athletic corner with great ball skills and tremendous footwork without having to move up the board is striking gold.
16) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (from Seahawks): Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU– The Bills are going to be aggressive in pursuing a pass catcher in this draft. If they can’t move into the top 10, they will try to move into the middle of this draft for Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas Jr is the “unsung hero,” of this receiving class. He would be a “WR1,” in most years because of his nose for the end zone and ability with the ball in his hands.
The Trade: The Buffalo Bills trade the #28, #60, and a 2025 2nd-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for the #16 and #118.
17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State- Cam Robinson is in the final year of his contract. On top of that, Anton Harrison has had his inconsistencies on the right side. Offensive tackle may be the most pressing need for the Jaguars, and somehow no one is talking about it.
Fuaga is a monster in the run game and only allowed one sack over his final two years at Oregon State. He can play the left or right side from day one.
18) Cincinnati Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia- Mims has a limited collegiate resume, but many seem to love his potential. He has a tremendous wingspan and impressive grip strength. When he gets his hands on opposing edge rushers, it’s game over. I think the opportunity for Mims to develop behind Trent Brown, or start right away if he earns it, is intriguing to Cincinnati.
19) Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State- The number one concern for the Rams at 19 is going to be pairing a pass rusher with last year’s breakout stars Kobie Turner and Byron Young. Verse collapses the pocket well and he generates a ton of QB pressures. He also put together a great athletic workout at the combine, which showed some dip-and-bend ability at the next level.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, IOL Duke- The Steelers tend to be very candid with us mock draft aficionados; they tend to just take the things they appear to be interested in. In this draft, that is offensive line.
Barton can play multiple spots up front, and many have him as the top-ranked interior offensive lineman in this draft class.
21) Miami Dolphins: Byron Murphy II, IDL Texas- Having lost Christian Wilkins, Byron Murphy would be an absolute steal here for the Dolphins. He immediately becomes their best interior pass rusher, and Murphy is better against the run than he is given credit for. This would be a home run scenario.
22) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Eagles): Bo Nix, QB Oregon– The 20-40 range is likely where Penix and Bo Nix wind up, which is great news for Denver given their lack of assets. It allows them to move backward and still land a player at the position they covet most in this draft.
From day one, the best system fit for Denver has been Bo Nix. He’s extremely accurate in the short to intermediate passing window, which will allow Head Coach Sean Payton to run the west coast offense he wants to run.
The Trade: See Pick #12.
23) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers (from Vikings through Browns via Texans): Xavier Worthy, WR Texas- Worthy’s 4.21 speed would be fascinating to watch in a Justin Herbert-led offense. He can take slant plays to the house, and he can be the vertical threat this offense needs. The Chargers need pass catchers and cannot come out of the first two days without at least one.
The Trade: See Pick #5.
24) Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma– The Cowboys have to get a left tackle early in this draft. Guyton may not have played a lot, but his length and ability to gain leverage at the point of attack has NFL teams salivating at what he could be. Do not be shocked if he goes higher than expected in round one.
25) Green Bay Packers: Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL Illinois– Green Bay’s first-round pick is an absolute mystery to me. They likely solidify the trenches, but which side of the ball they choose is anyone’s guess. I’m going with Newton, who can add an interior pass-rushing element next to Kenny Clark that the Packers need.
26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State- Robinson’s combine masterpiece should land him safely in the first round. He gets home off the edge by athletically running the arch to the quarterback, and his best football is unequivocally ahead of him. Robinson could wreck games as a 3-4 edge player in Head Coach Todd Bowles’s defense.
27) Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA- The run on edge rushers continues with Latu, who stumbles a bit in this mock because of medical concerns. Latu had a severe neck injury that caused him to temporarily retire from football in 2021.
However, Latu came back from the neck injury to dominate college football like he was Edge returning at the Royal Rumble (another IYKYK reference). He has the most complete move-set of the edge rushers in this class, which is why he is a round one lock despite the medical concerns.
Having said that, his athletic upside is not as high as Turner, Verse, or Robinson. When you combine that with the medical history, a projected slide is reasonable to predict.
28) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (from Bills): Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson- Wiggins has an outside chance to be the first cornerback selected. He’s an elite athlete with terrific man-cover skills from the boundary or slot position.
According to Daniel Jeremiah, no team has done more research on cornerback in this draft than the Seattle Seahawks. With the big two gone by the time they pick at 16, they trade down, recoup the second-rounder they do not have, and select “CB3.”
The Trade: See Pick #16
29) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (from Lions): Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington– Talented, well-run organizations trade down when they have limited needs in round one. Believe it or not, the Detroit Lions are now a good team that is well-run. Keep an eye on Detroit putting this pick up for sale to the highest bidder.
I mentioned earlier that Vegas could move back into round one to get their quarterback of the future instead of selecting that quarterback at 13. Penix will push for the day-one starter, but could sit behind Minshew for a year if needed.
The Trade: The Las Vegas Raiders trade the #44, #77, and a 2025 2nd-round pick to the Detroit Lions for the #29 and a 2025 3rd-round pick.
30) Baltimore Ravens: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas- Rashod Bateman underperformed drastically last season, and Mark Andrews is on the back nine of his career. Receiver is actually a pressing need for the Ravens.
Mitchell is a contested catch monster and an elite red zone target. Plus, he wins down the field, which is important in the Ravens’ offense.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Paul, OT Houston- I think cooler heads will prevail on the Brandon Aiyuk saga, and he will ultimately re-up with the Niners. The next need for San Francisco is tackle. Right tackle is a massive need, but they really need options at both spots long-term. If an NFL career was put into golf terms, Trent Williams is playing the 17th at Sawgrass. His retirement is on the horizon.
Patrick Paul seems pretty confident that he has an early promise, and the Niners are a logical team to have made said promise. He can compete for the starting right tackle spot while eventually switching back to the left side when Williams retires.
32) Kansas City Chiefs: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa- In a draft where quarterbacks go earlier than expected, talented players fall down the draft board. The Chiefs seem destined to steal a talented player here.
DeJean put on a great workout recently, answering a lot of questions that teams had about his athleticism. His ball skills are strong, and his ability in off-coverage is excellent. Great value pick here for a team that needs secondary help.
ROUND TWO
33) Carolina Panthers: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE Western Michigan- Perhaps the biggest late riser of the draft process is Marshawn Kneeland. He went into the combine as someone who was a likely 3rd round guy, and now he’s had top-30 visits with a lot of teams and generated some round-one buzz. Kneeland’s high motor and ability to collapse the pocket make him an interesting edge prospect at the next level.
34) New England Patriots: Troy Franklin, WR Oregon- If the Pats are going to take a quarterback third, they better give him a weapon to throw to early in round two. Franklin is a threat down the field and the Patriots have used a top-30 visit on him.
35) Arizona Cardinals: Ennis Rakestraw, Jr., CB Missouri- Arizona needs a lot, so this pick could be anything. Rakestraw is physical at the line and he stays attached to receivers when trailing them. The media is higher on him than I am, but he still should be an early day-two pick.
36) Washington Commanders: Roger Rosengarten, OL Washington- Washington could move back into the first round to ensure an offensive lineman of their choice. In this mock, Rosengarten falling to them is perfect because he likely can play multiple positions up front at the next level.
37) Los Angeles Chargers: Mike Sainristil, DB Michigan- The former Michigan Head Coach selects his first Michigan man of the 2024 draft. Sainristil has some first-round buzz, but he likely comes off the board somewhere on day two.
38) Tennessee Titans: Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M- Call me crazy, but having only Kenneth Murray along the interior of the second level does not feel like a recipe for success. Cooper is the best of a very quality off-ball linebacker class.
39) Carolina Panthers (from N.Y. Giants): Xavier Leggette, WR South Carolina- Despite the Panthers adding Diontae Johnson, they still need playmakers. Leggette is exactly that; he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands and physical in his routes as well.
40) Washington Commanders (from Chicago): Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU– Washington doubling up on offensive line is easily their best draft strategy. When you draft a quarterback high, you have to build an offensive line around them to give them the best chance to be successful. Washington’s offensive line currently stinks, and this is a great “OL,” class at the top.
41) Green Bay Packers (from N.Y. Jets): Jaden Hicks, S Washington State- Hicks is a safety who can line up at many spots and excels playing downhill. It’s hard to say who will be the first safety off the board from a below-average safety class, but Hicks has the most buzz right now, so he goes first.
42) Houston Texans (from Minnesota): Darius Robinson, IDL Missouri- The interior of Houston’s defensive line is subpar, and it lacks a pass rush. Robinson can play multiple spots up front, and he will add a necessary pass-rushing presence from the interior.
43) Atlanta Falcons: Payton Wilson, LB NC State- The second level of the Falcons’ defense is a disaster right now. Wilson can cover running backs and tight ends and is a quality tackler in space.
44) *TRADE* Detroit Lions (from Raiders): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama– I have no idea how Detroit pulled off trading down and still landing the player they likely would have selected at 29. McKinstry’s draft stock is a mystery because he did not test at the combine. I know most have him in round one, and he should go there because of his press coverage skills. However, something tells me he slides on draft day.
The Trade: See Pick #29.
45) New Orleans Saints (from Broncos): Malachi Corley, WR Western Kentucky- Corley’s ability to win from the slot is his best attribute, but a close second is his nose for the end zone. The Saints need both of these things. They also spent a top-30 visit on Corley.
46) Indianapolis Colts: Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida- Keep an eye on the Colts using an early pick on a pass catcher. Josh Downs and Alec Pierce have flashed, but the more weapons Anthony Richardson has at his disposal, the better.
47) New York Giants (from Seahawks): Max Melton, CB Rutgers- The Giants continue to revamp their secondary with this pick. Melton is competitive in man coverage and will fit nicely opposite Deonte Banks.
48) Jacksonville Jaguars: T.J. Tampa, CB Iowa State- The Jaguars could go corner in round one, but if they don’t, expect it on day two. Tampa is a lengthy corner that has really nice footwork in a multitude of coverages.
49) Cincinnati Bengals: Maason Smith, IDL LSU- Early in this draft, there will be a team that takes a chance on Smith’s elite traits and potential pass-rushing upside. Cincinnati needs help along the interior and used a top-30 visit on Smith.
50) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Eagles via Saints): Adisa Isaac, EDGE Penn State- Denver could go edge rusher as early as 12, but in this scenario, they recouped a second-rounder and did so here. Isaac had nice production in college, notching seven-and-a-half sacks last season.
The Trade: See Pick #12.
51) Pittsburgh Steelers: Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia- McConkey deserves to go in round one, so this is a steal before we analyze the pick. As far as the selection goes, Pittsburgh needs a number two receiver and a chain mover, which is exactly what McConkey does.
52) Los Angeles Rams: Dru Phillips, CB Kentucky- The Rams made a move for Tre White in the offseason, but injuries have hamstrung his career a bit. They need a secondary player early in this draft, preferably one that plays in multiple spots in coverage like Phillips.
53) Philadelphia Eagles: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona– Howie Roseman is excellent at addressing team needs a year too early rather than a minute too late. With Lane Johnson at 34 years old, offensive line is likely an early selection for the Eagles in this draft.
54) Cleveland Browns: Braden Fiske, IDL Florida State- Fiske was a major riser at the combine, putting on the best performance of any player there. He should be a day-two lock, likely to a team that needs an interior pass rusher like the Browns do.
55) Miami Dolphins: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL Oregon- Powers-Johnson is a day-one talent, but he is a center, which means he goes lower than expected. This is probably his floor in the draft; honestly, I would expect him to go higher than this. However, Miami is the recipient of a “mock,” draft day slide, and those happen all the time.
56) Dallas Cowboys: Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas- The worst-kept secret of the second day of this draft is Dallas picking a starting running back. Jonathon Brooks’s collegiate resume is better than Trey Benson’s, which is likely the difference in determining who will be “RB1.”
57) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ben Sinnott, TE Kansas State- Keep an eye on Sinnott going even higher than this. Most pundits have him as an early third-rounder, but Sinnott runs clean routes for a tight end and has met with a fair amount of teams during the draft process.
58) Green Bay Packers: Tevin Wallace, LB Kentucky- Wallace has elite potential at the next level because he’s athletic enough to cover tight ends and running backs. The Packers have a need at linebacker and used a top-30 visit on Wallace, making him a likely target on day two.
59) Houston Texans: Kamari Lassiter, CB Georgia- Lassiter can play the nickel from day one, but his athletic testing indicates that he can trail from the boundary as well. I think he’s a steal on day two.
60) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (from Bills): Zach Frazier, IOL West Virginia- Among the needs for Seattle in this draft is interior offensive line. Adding Zach Frazier at the bottom of round two would be a home-run draft scenario because he is a day-one starting center.
The Trade: See Pick #16.
61) Detroit Lions: Roman Wilson, WR Michigan- Detroit has a few upper-echelon targets in their offense, but the offense lacks depth in the pass-catching department. Roman Wilson is a savvy route runner from multiple spots, which makes him an intriguing day-two pick because he can play right away.
62) Baltimore Ravens: Cam Hunt, CB Notre Dame- The Ravens should address cornerback early in this draft. Not only is there some uncertainty around Marlon Humphrey because of his injuries, but they need a number two corner anyway.
63) San Francisco 49ers: Javon Bullard, S Georgia- I don’t know if I agree that safety is a need for the Niners, but their pre-draft meetings seem to indicate that they could go in that direction. Bullard is the biggest name in this class, but he could see a fall on draft day because he overpursues in coverage a lot.
64) Kansas City Chiefs: Ja’Lynn Polk, WR Washington- The 13th receiver in the top 64 picks is a perfect fit for the Chiefs. Polk has terrific hands and he wins contested catches because of his physicality and aforementioned hands.
Jordan Katz’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 3.0: Two Rounds
After a very exciting free agency period, we are back with the third installment of #MockLyfe! Some team needs have changed, and some player evaluations have changed as well. The last installment of my prediction mock draft was before the combine, which saw a ton of players shine. There are a lot of players who added to their draft stock, and a few who hurt it as well.
A couple of housekeeping notes before we get started. I only did trades for the first round. It is incredibly hard to predict trades in a mock in general, and predicting past the second round is almost impossible. Therefore, I limited myself to only mocking trades in round one.
Also, if your favorite team needs a wide receiver or an offensive lineman, you are in luck this year. I have 12 wide receivers going in the first two rounds (which could be a little high), and even more offensive linemen (which I still could be low on).
Now I know what you’re thinking; “okay that’s cool information, but where do the quarterbacks go? Where are the trades and how many of them do you have?”
Well…
ROUND ONE
1) Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB USC- This decision appears to be a lock, so we won’t spend too much time on it. The Bears have moved on from Justin Fields, and surrounded Williams with a quality receiving core after the addition of Keenan Allen. They also brought in D’Andre Swift, who should fortify the run game. Williams has the pieces around him to be incredibly successful.
2) Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU- Daniels appears to be the favorite to go second overall. His impressive showing at the combine has solidified him as a top 3 lock. Whether he goes 2 or not will depend on how much influence Head Coach Dan Quinn has in the selection.
Quinn is someone who values athleticism at every position, and getting a quarterback who runs a 4.33 feels like something that would be atop the wish list. Daniels’s ability to create with his legs would give the Commanders a different dimension to their offense.
3) *TRADE* Minnesota Vikings (from Patriots): Drake Maye, QB North Carolina- This is where the draft starts. Reports coming out of Indianapolis were that quarterbacks would go 1-2-3. The debate is whether the Patriots will make the pick, or trade it and tank for next year. While I would select a quarterback and just wait to play him until the roster was ready, I am not in charge of this one.
For four months the Pats have been a prime candidate to trade down… except for during the last few weeks when the discussion has turned into them being locked into a quarterback. We all know that this is smoke and mirrors season for the draft process. My guess is that the Patriots are tempting someone to move up the board.
Minnesota is desperate to land one of the young quarterbacks after losing Kirk Cousins. On top of their top targets is Maye (Josh McCown has familiarity with him from Maye’s high school days). I also think this is Maye’s best fit. He walks into the league with the best receiver in the game (Justin Jefferson), a top-tier tight end (TJ Hockenson), and an elite offensive-minded coach (Kevin O’Connell).
Should the Patriots’ decision be a trade at three, the Vikings are the slam-dunk move.
The Trade: The Minnesota Vikings trade the #11, #23, a 2025 1st round pick, and a 2025 3rd round pick to the New England Patriots for the #3, #103, and a 2025 4th round pick.
4) Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State- If the Patriots make their selection, the Cardinals will be flooded with trade offers, and they will likely get one that is too good to pass up on. However, if the trade happens at three, the trade offers will be lighter, and not worth passing up on Marvin Harrison Jr.
The decision not to participate in the entire pre-draft process may have been questionable to some, but it actually made perfect sense for Harrison Jr. His draft hype was already otherworldly; there was no reason to risk hurting his draft stock. He will likely be the first non-quarterback selected in a few weeks.
5) Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers, WR LSU- Following the release of Mike Williams and the trade of Keenan Allen, the Chargers are now a virtual lock to pick one of the talented top receivers at five. There is a chance they wind up with Marvin Harrison, but I think Nabers is the better fit. The Chargers need a playmaker with the ball to open up this offense, and Nabers is the best “YAC,” player in the draft. He also runs good routes from the slot and the boundary positions.
6) New York Giants: J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan- I might be falling for the bait, but I think the Giants are the floor for McCarthy’s draft stock. Daniel Jones is simply not the answer long term. McCarthy’s athleticism would be appealing to Head Coach Brian DaBoll, and he could start or sit depending on what he earns in training camp.
Editor’s Note: We do need to address the elephant in the room; why is everyone in love with J.J. McCarthy? In my opinion, the arm talent is the only answer to that question. Teams fall in love with arm talent and feel that they can coach up the rest. McCarthy does have a chance if he sits, and I do believe the Giants would sit him in year one.
7) Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame- Much like the Chargers, the Titans are a lock in terms of the position they are selecting at seven. They signed Calvin Ridley to round out their receiving core, so finding a left tackle is now priority number one.
Alt is the consensus top tackle in a terrific offensive line class, but keep an eye on Olu Fashanu here. When Andrew Thomas went fourth overall to the Giants, which surprised many, there were rumors that one team had him so high on their board that they refused to pass if he was available. There are those rumors about Olu Fashanu at this time.
8) Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama- I did try to trade this pick for Atlanta, but the offers were not up to par. Therefore, if Atlanta is stuck in this spot, they likely take the top edge guy on the board.
Turner’s ceiling is not as high as the top edge guys from past years, but he is an elite athlete who is best served standing up in a 3-4. The Falcons’ defense stunk last year in terms of getting to the passer, so Turner can make an immediate impact there.
9) Chicago Bears: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State- Selfishly, I am glad we have returned to normalcy when it comes to Olu Fashanu and his draft stock. You would think the Bears have to go offensive line with this selection, but keep an eye on Brock Bowers potentially landing here. While it makes little sense because of their needs up front and the Bears having Cole Kmet, Bowers has met with the Bears twice already. He is also expected to go in this range.
10) New York Jets: Rome Odunze, WR Washington- Much like the Falcons, I think the Jets ultimately get stuck at 10 on draft night. If they are, this is a literal coin flip between Odunze and Taliese Fuaga in the scenario this mock has created. The Jets still need both positions long-term despite the one-year signings of Mike Williams and Tyron Smith. What this selection could come down to is the uncertainty of Williams coming off of surgery. Odunze’s route running skills and 50/50 ability would be something Aaron Rodgers would love in the offense.
Editor’s Note: The Jets are being tied to Brock Bowers at 10, but I think that’s a smoke screen. Joe Douglas has only picked premium positions in round one during his time in New York, and tight end is simply not that when it comes to top 10 selections. To me, the Bowers move becomes more possible if the Jets move backward in the first round.
11) *TRADE* New England Patriots (from Vikings): Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State- If the Patriots are going to punt the season and wait for a quarterback until the roster is ready, building the offensive line back up should be the top priority. Fuaga plays with immense physicality and quality lower body technique. He can play the left side or the right side at the next level, and that is appealing to many.
The Trade: See Pick #3.
12) *TRADE* Dallas Cowboys (from Broncos): Amarius Mims, OT Georgia- In previous mocks, I have talked about Bo Nix and how he is a perfect fit for the Denver Broncos. However, this is a little early for that move. The more likely scenario is them moving backward, adding assets, and selecting that quarterback later in round one.
Dallas also has to find their Tyron Smith replacement, so them getting aggressive here also makes sense.
Mims this high is a bold call, but teams are infatuated with his athleticism and upside. Even with limited tape, there are plenty who think he can be an elite tackle at the next level. Plus, teams will always take an elite athlete over an average one with great tape.
The Trade: The Dallas Cowboys trade the #24, #56 and a 2025 2nd round pick to the Denver Broncos for the #12 and #136.
13) Las Vegas Raiders: JC Latham, OT Alabama- Look for Vegas to make their quarterback move in this draft by trading back into round one. At this spot, offensive line makes the most sense. Latham is a plug-and-play right tackle from day one, something Vegas desperately needs.
14) New Orleans Saints: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia- Keep an eye on the Saints to move up this draft board to ensure a pass catcher opposite Chris Olave. It is by far their biggest need, and the players at the top are elite. Should Bowers slide a bit, this feels like his floor because of that need. He is a do-it-all tight end with YAC ability to boot.
15) Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama- What an absolute steal this would be for the Colts. Arnold is arguably the top player in the draft on the defensive side of the ball, and the Colts need a true number one corner. In a year with a lot of talent, good players are going to fall when the quarterbacks go high, and Arnold falls victim to that.
16) Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OL Washington- The Seahawks lost a lot along the interior of their offensive line this offseason. Fautanu has all-pro ability at guard, and his versatility to play multiple spots is something NFL teams will value.
17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State- The uncertainty around Josh Allen’s future with the team is why the Jags go edge here at 17. I’m going with Verse because his buzz leaving Indianapolis last month was high, but do not sleep on Chop Robinson going this early. No one had a better showing than Robinson at the Combine, and teams love elite athletes off the edge.
18) Cincinnati Bengals: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas- The back end of this first round could get wild because of the immense talent in this class. You could see a lot of teams taking “their guy,” instead of the consensus best player at that position. Adonai Mitchell over Brian Thomas Jr is one of those instances. He’s a 50/50 playmaker and he wins in the red zone.
In terms of draft needs for Cincy, I do think Tee Higgins moves on draft day (stay tuned for that later), which makes pass catcher their primary need based on how their offense operates.
19) Los Angeles Rams: Byron Murphy II, IDL Texas- What a perfect fit this is. Following the retirement of Aaron Donald, defensive line is incredibly likely at 19. Murphy fills the need for a pass rusher, while also replacing Aaron Donald in the starting lineup for all three downs. I do think edge is in play here, but I love the idea of Murphy and Kobe Turner wrecking games from the interior.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma– Pittsburgh could go several different directions here, but the most likely seems to be offensive line. Guyton is still not a day-one player in my eyes, but I think the NFL may feel differently. He does possess a lot of power in his strikes, and teams like his upside because of his athleticism.
21) Miami Dolphins: Graham Barton, IOL Duke- Miami got gutted along the interior of their offensive line during the offseason. They need to address that early in this draft. Barton can play any spot up front, giving the Dolphins some draft flexibility while simultaneously addressing a need. This is an easy pick.
22) *TRADE* Carolina Panthers (from Eagles): Briant Thomas Jr., WR LSU- The Panthers have quietly had a really good offseason. They have added a few pieces to fortify their offensive line, and they added Diontae Johnson as a target for Bryce Young. If the right situation presents itself, they could move up the draft board for a pass catcher that falls, like Brian Thomas Jr did here.
Conversely, the Eagles are a perfect trade-down candidate. They addressed a lot of their needs during free agency. This is the perfect time for General Manager Howie Roseman to add a few assets to help fill out the depth of the roster.
I do not know if this exact trade happens on draft day, but I would keep an eye on both of these teams moving around the board early in this draft.
The Trade: The Carolina Panthers trade the #39, #65 and a 2025 3rd round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for the #22 and a 2025 4th round pick.
23) *TRADE* New England Patriots (from Vikings via Texans): Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA- The best way to rebuild a roster is through the trenches. Following offensive line at 11, the Patriots add the best pass rusher on tape from the 2024 draft class.
Despite being many’s top pass rusher, I think Latu could slide even further than this on draft day. His athletic testing was not elite in Indianapolis last month. When you combine that with his injury history, he could be one of the players who slides to day two. However, the tape is excellent and he has the best move-set in the entire draft class.
The Trade: See Pick #3.
24) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Cowboys): Bo Nix, QB Oregon- This is the perfect scenario for Denver on draft day, and a very realistic one as well. 12 is too high to take Nix, but they must come out of this draft with a quarterback. They also do not have a second round pick to trade up for one after making a selection at 12. Therefore, moving down the draft board, recouping that second-rounder, and still getting Nix is a home run.
The Trade: See Pick #12.
25) *TRADE* Kansas City Chiefs (from Packers): Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo- Hand up, I was dead wrong about Quinyon Mitchell. Some guys overperform at the combine and it forces you to go back and look at their tape to see what you missed. Mitchell was one of those guys for me. I did not see 4.3 speed, I did not see the effortless flipping of his hips that he showed in the drills, and I did not see the ability to break out of his backpedal clean without losing any speed. I saw a good player on tape; Mitchell proved he could be a great player at the combine.
The Chiefs had to let L’Jarius Sneed go because of cap issues, so replacing him with a toolsy corner like Mitchell makes a ton of sense. That is why they get aggressive and move up to land their guy.
The Trade: The Kansas City Chiefs trade the #32, #95 and #141 to the Green Bay Packers for the 25th overall selection.
26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson- Speaking of toolsy cornerbacks, Wiggins has elite athleticism and is one of the better man cover corners in the draft. The Bucs got jumped for Quinyon Mitchell who fell down the draft board a bit, but their consolation prize is a player who fits Todd Bowles’s defense very well.
27) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (from Cardinals via Texans): Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL Oregon- I hinted at the Tee Higgins trade earlier and we have arrived. If you think about it, this is the perfect Tee Higgins trade. The Bengals are not going to want to trade him in the conference, and they likely will not want to give him to a championship contender either. Enter the Arizona Cardinals, who have a ton of cap space and need multiple weapons in their receiving corpse. With two moves in round one, the Cardinals have one of the best receiving duos in the league if MHJ lives up to the hype.
The Bengals continue to revamp their offensive line here with the selection of Jackson Powers-Johnson. He is one of the top interior offensive linemen in this draft because of his intelligence in pass protection and his footwork.
The Trade: The Cincinnati Bengals trade Tee Higgins and a 2025 3rd Round Pick to the Arizona Cardinals for the 27th overall selection.
28) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (from Bills): Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington- Vegas did sign Gardner Minshew to a two-year deal, but I don’t think that rules out quarterback in this draft. They are in a great position to take a quarterback late in round one and sit him behind Minshew in year one. That is why they are the perfect team for Michael Penix Jr. They trade up to get a fifth-year option out of a guy who they hope is their quarterback of the future.
The Trade: The Las Vegas Raiders trade the #44, #77 and a 2025 2nd round pick to the Buffalo Bills for the #28 and a 2025 4th round pick.
29) Detroit Lions: Darius Robinson, DL Missouri- If teams around them did not trade out of round one, Detroit would have been a great candidate to do so. Their needs have shrunk since free agency ended, making “BPA,” a great idea. Robinson’s versatility and athleticism up front make him a terrific fit in Detroit’s defense.
30) Baltimore Ravens: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State- Baltimore is going to find a steal here at 30. While they somehow always find a way to steal someone, in a draft where quarterbacks going early will force talent to slide, it feels like even more of a foregone conclusion this time.
One of the biggest winners from the combine was Chop Robinson. He showed upper-echelon athleticism and flashed elite dip-and-bend potential during the on-field drills. His tape is not as complete as the other edge rushers, but the upside may be higher than all of them.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona- The Niners will likely add to their offensive line depth somewhere in this draft. Morgan’s athleticism should allow him to play the left or right side in this offense, and his footwork should help him be a solid pass protector right away.
32) *TRADE* Green Bay Packers (from Chiefs): Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M- The Packers used a top 30 visit on the best off-ball linebacker in the draft class, which means they could look to take him a little before his expected draft value. Cooper can do it all, including rushing the passer from that second-level spot. He would add a different dimension to this Packers’ defense.
The Trade: See Pick #25.
ROUND TWO
33) Carolina Panthers: Braden Fiske, DL Florida State- Fiske put together the best combine of any player, making him a shoo-in for the top 50 picks. Carolina could use some versatility up-front, which makes this a good fit as well.
34) New England Patriots: Zach Frazier, IOL West Virginia- The Patriots continue to rebuild in the trenches with Frazier, who some think is the best interior offensive lineman in the draft because of his powerful strikes and ability to anchor.
35) Arizona Cardinals: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa- Best defensive player available is an excellent strategy for the Cardinals at the top of round two. DeJean sliding to round two makes him an absolute steal because there is still an argument to be made for him being the top corner in this draft not named Arnold.
36) Washington Commanders: Kingsley Suamataia, OL BYU- Suamataia makes the 12th offensive lineman to go in the first 36 picks of this mock! Keep an eye on Washington moving back into round one to land a tackle as well because they need one that badly. They are fortunate to get one here at 36.
37) Los Angeles Chargers: Xavier Worthy, WR Texas- The Chargers doubling up on receiver makes sense. Quentin Johnston was terrible last season, and he’s the only real weapon on this roster right now. Worthy ran a 4.21 at the combine, so you know he can make some plays with the ball in his hands.
38) Tennessee Titans: T’Vondre Sweat, IDL Texas- Some might say this is early for a one-tech, but not every nose tackle moves as fluidly as Sweat. He also can rush the passer, which is needed in today’s NFL.
39) *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (from Panthers via Giants): Payton Wilson, LB NC State- The Eagles made some cheap signings at linebacker, but adding a quality player instead of trying to resurrect some careers still feels like a smart move. Wilson is an excellent player in coverage, and he shoots the right gaps from the second level.
The Trade: See Pick #22.
40) Washington Commanders (from Bears): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama- McKinstry didn’t test at the combine due to injury, which hurts his chances to go in round one. Still, someone is going to take him early in round two because of his ability to excel in multiple coverages.
41) Green Bay Packers (from Jets): Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL Illinois- Newton is a quick twitch athlete with a great move-set along the interior. Playing alongside Kenny Clark on passing downs would allow him to thrive at the next level.
42) Houston Texans (from Vikings): Troy Franklin, WR Oregon- Houston’s first pick in this draft addresses a sneaky need. This offense sputtered at times when Tank Dell went down. Continuing to give CJ Stroud weapons is a very smart move.
43) Atlanta Falcons: Junior Colson, LB Michigan- The run on off-ball linebackers continues with the Falcons selecting Colson to solidify the second level of their defense. Colson is polarizing, but captaining the defense of the national champions is going to be appealing to NFL teams.
44) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (from Raiders): Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB Missouri- Buffalo really needs help at corner, and this is way too low for Rakestraw according to most pundits. This is a case of a good player falling into a great situation.
The Trade: See Pick #28.
45) New Orleans Saints (from Broncos): Kris Jenkins, IDL Michigan- The Saints were not great against the run last year. Kris Jenkins changes that from day one, and he adds a pass rushing element from the interior.
46) Indianapolis Colts: Xavier Leggette, WR South Carolina- Leggette has some Deebo Samuel in him, who also coincidentally was a South Carolina grad. He’s a good playmaker with the ball in his hands, and everything he does is at 100% speed.
47) New York Giants (from Seahawks): Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia- Should the Giants take JJ McCarthy at six, they must get a pass catcher in the middle of round two. McConkey wins from all over the field, and he’s a very savvy route runner.
48) Jacksonville Jaguars: Kamari Lassiter, CB Georgia- The Jags need some depth in their secondary, which is a good target for them early in this draft. Lassiter had a really nice combine, which helped his draft stock immensely as someone who lined up in the nickel a fair amount.
49) Cincinnati Bengals: Trey Benson, RB Florida State- Call me crazy, but Zack Moss as a “bell cow,” is not an intriguing proposition. Benson showed the “home run ability,” with an incredible showing at the combine, and he should be a lock for the top running back selected in a few weeks.
50) Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Cooper Beebe, IOL Kansas State- The Eagles love to have an abundance of depth in the trenches, and right now they are lacking that on the offensive side of the ball. Beebe fits a need based on how the team operates.
51) Pittsburgh Steelers: Malachi Corley, WR Western Kentucky- Corley has been the draft darling of many. He’s terrific from the slot, and he tested off the charts in Indianapolis. He’s a perfect fit as the number two receiver for the Steelers.
52) Los Angeles Rams: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE Western Michigan- The Rams continue to revamp their defensive front seven. Kneeland is a quality power rusher who flashed some nice athleticism at the combine.
53) Philadelphia Eagles: Javon Bullard, S Georgia- There is a real chance a safety does not go before the third round. If there is one that sneaks in, it’s Bullard because of his ability to read and react in the back end.
54) Cleveland Browns: Patrick Paul, OT Houston- The Browns could use some depth up front with this first selection in their draft. Paul has ridiculous size and long arms. His technique needs work, but that’s why he sits in his first year.
55) Miami Dolphins: Maason Smith, IDL LSU- Miami is in a tough spot in this draft to nab both of the things they need. Smith is a former five-star recruit who had a lot of injuries in college. If he can reach his potential, this could be a steal.
56) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Cowboys): Chris Braswell, EDGE Alabama- Denver lacks a primary pass rusher. While this draft lacks depth in that regard, Braswell is one of the last of the true pass rushers worth taking for a while based on the way this board fell.
The Trade: See Pick #12.
57) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trevin Wallace, LB Kentucky- Todd Bowles would love an athlete at the second level like Wallace. Wallace has some up-and-down moments on tape, but he has elite upside because he can cover.
58) Green Bay Packers: Zak Zinter, IOL Michigan- I am going to continue to prognosticate that Zinter goes sooner rather than later despite his season-ending leg injury. Green Bay could use some depth along the interior, and Zinter could wind up starting by year’s end.
59) Houston Texans: Mike Sainristil, DB Michigan- Sainristil might go a little higher than expected because he can do a bit of everything in the back end, even if he is elite at very little. The fit makes sense as well because Houston needs depth in their secondary.
60) Buffalo Bills: Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida- Despite the signing of Curtis Samuel, I still think the Bills could add a pass catcher in this draft. Pearsall had a monster showing at the combine, guaranteeing himself a top 2 round selection, in my opinion.
61) Detroit Lions: Bralen Trice, EDGE Washington- Detroit doubles up on defensive line with Trice in the back end of round two. His tape was way better than his combine performance. Trice could be the steal of day two.
62) Baltimore Ravens: Roger Rosengarten, OL Washington- Like Detroit, Baltimore also doubles up, in a way. They take a second guy who tested great athletically and they attempt to correct some technical flaws he may have to turn him into a starter.
63) San Francisco 49ers: Roman Wilson, WR Michigan- 12 receivers in the first two rounds may seem high, but this receiver class is built different. San Francisco could use some assurance in case Brandon Aiyuk does not re-sign, and Wilson’s a better route runner than people think.
64) Kansas City Chiefs: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE Texas- Should the situation present itself, Kansas City could look for Travis Kelce’s replacement in this draft since Kelce’s days are numbered. Sanders is a good athlete, and he can make an immediate impact in the red zone.
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