Jordan Katz’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Posted on January 6, 2024 Updated on January 8, 2024

My friends, it is that time of year… MOCK DRAFT SZN HAS RETURNED! This draft is the most intriguing draft I have seen in quite some time. There might be as many as six first-round quarterbacks, and many draft experts have more first-round grades in this draft than normal. On top of that, there are multiple generational talents and a controversy around the first overall pick!

As we attempt to sift through the chaos of what will be the 2024 NFL Draft, a few ground rules to remember (or to know if you are new to my mocks). First off, remember that this is just what I think will happen. I will eventually release a mock or two based on my evaluation of players, but this mock is strictly what I think would happen if the draft was tomorrow.

In most of my mocks, I include a fair amount of trades. To me, predicting a mock without trades is silly because trades always happen, and anyone who says they “cannot predict trades,” is lying. I do this for fun and even I usually have a decent idea of the teams looking to trade out or move up; there is enough information out there to make educated guesses.

However, in this mock, I only have one trade because this draft has so much uncertainty. Will Chicago stick with Justin Fields? How many QB-needy teams will be aggressive in this draft to land their guy? Could a team fly up the board for one of the impact wide receivers? Will the Jets address the offensive line in free agency or the draft? Okay, that last one is a personal problem, but you get the point.

As the offseason takes shape and the draft becomes more clear, I will include more trades. For now, I just saw one that was obvious to me. And yes, it kicks off our Mock!

ROUND ONE

1) *TRADE*- Washington Commanders (from Bears via Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB USC- It has been over 30 years since the number one overall pick was traded in back-to-back years, butwe might be headed down that path. Justin Fields has been up and down during his time in Chicago, but with the regime in Chicago staying intact, they will likely try to build around Fields this offseason. Chicago was 5-3 down the stretch, and regimes are reluctant to replace a guy they selected when he has flashed.

On the other hand, Washington is cleaning house, which means the new regime will likely want, “their guy,” at quarterback instead of Sam Howell. Because Washington is in the top three, not only can they trade up using fewer assets, but Chicago can grab a star player for the future as well (remember the Mitchell Trubisky trade?)

Caleb Williams is becoming a polarizing player. He’s not the slam dunk first-overall pick many thought he was, and he has been in the media for some “off the field,” concerns as well. However, the talent is undeniable. His ability to make off-platform throws is bananas, and there is not a throw on the field he cannot make from a clean pocket. In my opinion, he is a more polished Patrick Mahomes out of college.

The question I have is, can that guy elevate the players around him from day one? Mahomes sat for a reason; he took a lot of chances and had to learn the finer points of QB play. Would Williams benefit from the same situation? More importantly, will he be allowed to sit by the ownership of the team that picks him?

2) *TRADE*- Chicago Bears (from Commanders): Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State- Chicago trading out of the top spot, acquiring a couple of current and future day two selections, and still selecting the consensus top player in the draft would be a home run of a move. Harrison Jr. may be the most hyped receiver prospect since Julio Jones; he’s 6’3 with phenomenal game speed, he wins at the line of scrimmage with ease, and he’s a “YAC,” threat every time he catches the ball.

3) New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB North Carolina- Whether Bill Belichick stays with a GM at the helm or is let go, chances are a new quarterback is going to be brought into Foxborough this offseason. While I would attempt a longer rebuild and trade out to acquire assets, Drake Maye is also my top quarterback in this draft class. Maye was used horribly at North Carolina, and it reminds me of how poorly Justin Herbert was used at Oregon. Maye can create plays outside the pocket, he delivers a phenomenal deep ball, and at 6’5, he’s the prototypical quarterback build. He has all the characteristics of a franchise quarterback if put in the right situation.

4) Arizona Cardinals: Malik Nabers, WR LSU- Arizona desperately needs a number one wide receiver this offseason. Fortunately for them, this draft has three or four at a minimum. 

Nabers is an elite “YAC,” player and his ability to separate off the line of scrimmage allows him to win from the slot and the boundary. His route running is also more complete than people realize. In the Cardinals’ spread offense where versatility is vital, Nabers is a great fit.

5) Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame- Alt and Olu Fashanu are the runaway top tackles in this draft class. It will come down to personal preference to see who goes first. Alt has a ridiculous frame (6’8!), he’s light on his feet, and he allowed just 16 pressures in over 1,000 snaps at left tackle for the Fighting Irish. He is a “can’t miss,” prospect in my mind, and his athleticism might catapult him into being the top tackle selected.

6) New York Giants: Olu Fashanu, OT Penn State- The Giants will definitely address offensive line in this offseason, and an elite pass protector in Fashanu seems like the slam dunk selection. In his entire collegiate career, Fashanu did not allow a sack, and he only allowed 11 pressures in about 400 snaps. This is another “can’t miss,” prospect and the top player on my personal board.

7) Tennessee Titans: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia- This may look a little high for Mims, but he is the kind of offensive line prospect NFL teams fall in love with. He’s a mauler in the run game, and when he gains leverage at the point of attack, it is game over for edge rushers. His footwork does need a little work in pass protection, but Mims has the ideal size, frame, and power for a prototypical right tackle in today’s NFL.

8) Atlanta Falcons: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU– The race for the third QB taken will be the highlight of the draft season. Jayden Daniels is the consensus top option as of now, but Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. will also get consideration. All three were Heisman Trophy contenders this year, and all three have transferred from other schools, showing the ability to learn multiple systems.

The appeal of Daniels is the extra playmaking ability he offers. He’s better than the other two when it comes to off-platform throws, and his performance per attempt, which many care about in terms of translating to the NFL, is off the charts over the last two years. The upside of Daniels has him in the front running for the third quarterback.

9) Chicago Bears: JC Latham, OT Alabama– The Bears must add starters to their inept offensive line this offseason. Latham looks like a prototypical right tackle, but he has experience at guard as well, which usually translates to NFL-level intelligence. He also mauls people in the running game, which fits with Tennessee’s offensive ideology of controlling the clock.

10) New York Jets: Rome Odunze, WR Washington- The story of the Jets offseason is going to be how they address their needs on the offensive side of the ball. My guess is they look to solidify the offensive line through free agency and veteran pickups. They are outside the range for Fashanu and Alt, and the wide receivers at the top are incredibly polished. 

Odunze had a massive season at Washington, showing off route running and elite speed at 6’3. His ball skills are next level and he’s a great 50/50 player. In an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, he is a perfect fit.

11) Minnesota Vikings: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa- Despite having a season-ending injury in November, DeJean still seems to be on track to be the top cornerback selected in April. He’s sticky in man coverage because of his ability to flip his hips and trail receivers. Minnesota desperately needs a number one corner, so this is a perfect match.

12) Denver Broncos: Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington- I’m not buying the rumors that Penix is a second or third-round guy. Penix has made massive strides at Washington despite his injury history. His deep ball is phenomenal, he understands 50/50 ball placement as well as anyone in this draft, and he finds a way to make some ridiculous back-footed throws in the fact of pressure. Head Coach Sean Payton will love Penix’s ability to get the ball out quick and stretch the ball down the field.

13) Las Vegas Raiders: Bo Nix, QB Oregon- Five quarterbacks in the top 15 may not be the buzz at the moment, but there is a good chance we are headed that way. Nix had a gigantic season at Oregon, showing the ability to manage a quick hitter offense that puts the ball in playmakers’ hands early and often. Even though Aidan O’Connell has flashed at times, I doubt Vegas will enter 2024 with him as the starter. They are in a great position in this draft to land their quarterback of the future.

14) New Orleans Saints: Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA- Latu is one of the biggest risers from this college football season. His production was off the charts the last two years and his technique on the edge matches the box score scouting. Latu uses his hands well to set up a bevy of moves; he’s deemed the “technician,” of the top edge rushers. If his athletic testing matches his tape, he could be EDGE1 in April.

15) Indianapolis Colts: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia- Bowers is one of the most talented players in this draft, and many think he can go in the top 10 despite being a tight end. He’s a very willing blocker, he’s a playmaker with the ball in his hands, and he separates using size and athleticism. Giving Anthony Richardson a safety valve in 2024 makes a lot of sense if Bowers makes it this far.

16) Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OL Washington- Fautanu was the blindside protector of the best collegiate offense in the nation. He was often left on an island at tackle and rarely allowed any semblance of pressure because of his footwork and powerful hands at the point of attack. With guard experience as well, many see him as a Zack Martin type at the next level, making him a perfect fit for a young emerging offensive line in Seattle.

17) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State- First-step off the snap of the ball is vital for a pass rusher, and not many in this draft are quicker off the line than Verse. He also possesses some big-time power for a pass rusher. The Jaguars could not get to the passer in 2023, and it’s one of the reasons they are not playing playoff football. Verse can help with that immediately.

18) Cincinnati Bengals: Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL Illinois- Taking interior line play is not a sexy round-one selection, but Newton is a special talent. He stacks and sheds as well as anyone to come out in recent memory, and he has a great move-set as a pass rusher. If he wasn’t undersized, Newton would be a top-10 lock. Cincinnati gets a steal at 17.

19) Green Bay Packers: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama- I know the ball skills aren’t exceptional, but I do not understand the lack of buzz around McKinstry as a prospect. Any defensive back who excels at the little things (tackling well, not falling for the QB’s eyes in off-coverage, footwork out of his break, etc.) is a first-round corner in my book. On top of that, McKinstry has elite athleticism and terrific closing speed. McKinstry and Jaire Alexander would be a phenomenal cornerback duo. 

20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State- Robinson’s dip-and-bend ability off the edge will be very appealing to teams in the back end of the first round. His athletic testing can catapult him into a different stratosphere in terms of draft talk because he has an elite get-off on tape. A Todd Bowles defense would be an avenue for him to thrive at the next level.

21) Arizona Cardinals (via Texans): Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama- Turner doesn’t pop off the page like some Alabama pass rushers from years past, but he’s technically sound in both the run and pass game and does possess some explosive athleticism. He has an incredibly high floor as a prospect, but he was not as impactful in 2023 without Will Anderson opposite him. That will have many questioning his ceiling at the next level and could lead to a draft day slide.

22) Los Angeles Rams: Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama- Arnold had the flashier season of Alabama’s cornerback duo on tape. His ball skills are excellent, he reads and reacts well in off-coverage, and he’s smooth in and out of his backpedal. He feels best served in a zone-heavy defense, which could limit the teams willing to take him early in the draft. However, someone like Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who varies coverages a lot, could allow Arnold to flourish early while his man cover skills improve.

23) Pittsburgh Steelers: Keon Coleman, WR Florida State- This is a bold prediction for January 8th, but the Steelers will move on from both Diontae Johnson and George Pickens this offseason. Johnson’s play is beyond inconsistent and Pickens has become a locker room question mark.

Should they move on from even one of these two, receiver becomes a massive need. Keon Coleman excels in 50/50 situations and he’s a fantastic red zone target at 6’4. His physicality in his routes makes him a very intriguing prospect.

24) Buffalo Bills: Xavier Worthy, WR Texas- My early offseason bold prediction is that the Bills and Stefon Diggs are headed toward a divorce. Diggs is never one to hold back on his frustration with the amount of touches he’s getting in the offense. The ball did not find him in the second half of the season at all.

Should Diggs play elsewhere in 2024, the Bills will need a new number-one target. Worthy’s ability to take the top off the defense and make plays with the ball in his hands would be an excellent fit in a Josh Allen-led offense. 

25) Philadelphia Eagles: Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M- The second level of the Eagles’ defense may be their biggest liability on the entire roster. Fortunately for them, this is a very good off-ball linebacker class.

Cooper appears to be the best of the bunch because he’s an elite athlete who thrives when playing downhill against the run. He’s also got the ability to rush the passer, compiling 10 sacks in 2023. He feels like a perfect fit in Philly’s aggressive style of defense.

26) Kansas City Chiefs: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona- Chiefs fans might be shocked that this is not a pass catcher, but I think KC will address that in free agency. Their run of selecting young receivers has not produced the success they thought it would.

Offensive line has also been a concern in Kansas City, which is why Jordan Morgan makes sense. He’s best in pass protection, showing elite footwork and the ability to re-anchor. Morgan can step in and play left tackle immediately for KC.

27) Houston Texans (via Browns): Byron Murphy II, IDL Texas- Murphy’s quick twitch ability along the interior would be a perfect fit in Head Coach Demeco Ryans’s defense. However, watch out for Houston trading up in this draft. CJ Stroud has emerged as a franchise quarterback, and most teams look to maximize their window when they have a QB on a rookie deal. Houston could look to move up the draft board for a true impact player if the situation presented itself.

28) Detroit Lions: T’Vondre Sweat, IDL Texas- To be honest, Detroit likely trades out of round one on draft day to a team that needs to trade back into round one for a player they covet. However, because that is so hard to predict this far out, they address the interior of their defensive line here.

Sweat is a mammoth inside (6’4 364!) and he shows a ton of quickness for someone of his size. He can win one-on-ones as a pass rusher and he’s stout against the run; proving to be more than just a space eater in the middle. He should help Detroit’s defense immediately. 

29) Miami Dolphins: Nate Higgins, CB Clemson- Miami needs to pair a corner opposite Jalen Ramsey to elevate their defense to the next level. Higgins has the length and athleticism to play the boundary at the next level. His hips flip effortlessly in man coverage and he can trail incredibly well. I like this fit in Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense.

30) Dallas Cowboys: Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas- Tony Pollard proved, without a shadow of a doubt, that he is not an RB1. Fortunately for Dallas, there are a few in this draft. 

Brooks is viewed as the best pure runner in this class, particularly between the tackles. He also has very little tread on his tires, which I think matters when the top of the class is as close as it is.

31) San Francisco 49ers: Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State- Fuaga is a favorite of many draft pundits because of his ability to gain leverage at the point of attack. His power is undeniable and he destroys defenders in the run game. If his lower body can become more technically sound, he could be a draft-day steal.

32) Baltimore Ravens: Zak Zinter, IOL Michigan- This could be the boldest prediction of this early mock, but I think teams will wisen up on Zinter by the time the draft rolls around. Yes, Zinter did break his leg in November, but bones heal. If he shows good progression through his rehab, he should go in round one. His game is complete, he understands stunts and twists, and he can start immediately pending medicals.