Jordan Katz NFL Mock Draft 2.0
After a very eventful combine, it’s time for Mock Draft 2.0. Some things have changed since my first mock draft, including my individual grades on players and where I have certain players going.
Another thing that will be different in this mock draft is that I’ve predicted a couple of first round trades. Unlike some other mock drafts, Mike and I believe in putting trades in our mocks. It not only depicts who we think could trade up or trade down, but it’s more realistic, since there are always trades throughout the draft. It’s hard to predict past round one, but in that first round, we like to put trades in.
Now not every team that could trade down did, and my trades may differ from one mock draft to another. The trades in this mock draft, and future mock drafts, are based on team needs and what happened up until that team’s pick. So if your favorite team is trading up or trading down, it doesn’t mean that they are leaning that way necessarily. It means that I believe there is a trade that benefits them based on the way my mock draft happened.
One thing remained the same though. Shane Ray and Randy Gregory are still not in my first round.
Round 1
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)- Jameis Winston, QB Florida State- This pick probably won’t change… ever.
2) Tennessee Titans (2-14)- Leonard Williams, DT Southern California- Tennessee is going to tempt any team that wants Marcus Mariota to move up here, particularly the New York Jets. If they don’t get a team to move up, then this is Leonard Williams for two reasons. One, he’s the best player in the draft. More importantly, I don’t see the Titans moving on from Zach Mettenberger that quickly.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)- Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson- Vic Beasley went absolutely bananas at this year’s NFL Combine. Normally I don’t weigh the combine that heavily, but when a player bulks up and still runs incredibly fast times, showing that even at his new weight he can be as fast as he was on his college game tape, he has to get recognition.
I said on Twitter that after his combine, Vic Beasley became my top edge rusher in the draft. While he’s not a 4-3 defensive end, he can be a LEO linebacker like Von Miller, or a strong side edge-rushing linebacker like Anthony Barr.
4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)- Kevin White, WR West Virginia- I wrote in my great debate article that if Kevin White ran a great 40-yard dash, based on his tape and his upside he would overtake Amari Cooper as this year’s top wide receiver. Well, 4.35 seconds later, and Cooper’s time is up. White’s time is now.
5) Washington Redskins (4-12)- Eli Harold, OLB Virginia- Harold was another member of the edge rushing class that tested off the charts in Indianapolis. Since Vic Beasley moved up, and Dante Fowler is best served as a 4-3 defensive end, Eli Harold jumps all the way to number five for me.
6) New York Jets (4-12)- Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon- I personally believe that the Jets will draft Marcus Mariota on draft day. Whether that’s by trading up, or Mariota falling to them at the sixth overall selection, I believe Mariota will be the Jets starting quarterback in 2015.
7) Cleveland Browns from Chicago Bears (5-11)- Amari Cooper, WR Alabama- Here’s the first trade of this mock draft. I think that Chicago is in a luxury position here. They could use a number of different things, and by Cooper being here, they could use that to their advantage and tempt a team that needs a wide receiver to move up.
Enter the Cleveland Browns. They need a number one target with the Josh Gordon suspension looming and the increased likelihood of Jordan Cameron not returning. They also have a first round draft pick to “play with,” because of the Sammy Watkins trade in last year’s draft. Cleveland moves up to take their top tier wide receiver, and the Bears get a few more picks.
8) Atlanta Falcons (6-10)- Dante Fowler Jr., DE Florida- The most NFL ready pass rusher “falls,” to the Falcons because of the rise of Beasley and Harold. I doubt Falcons fans will be complaining.
9) New York Giants (6-10)- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA- Here’s another player on the rise. Digi is probably my favorite player in the draft because of his upside, and because I have had him pegged as a top tier player in this draft for a while.
The Giants need linebackers, but we all know they won’t go there. They do need offensive line as well. However, they also need a defensive end, as either a replacement for Jason Pierre-Paul or along side him.
Digi does it all, and his combine will have his stock rising.
10) St. Louis Rams (6-10)- DeVante Parker, WR Louisville- While I wish the Vikings could land Parker to have the Louisville connection between him and Teddy Bridgewater, this pick makes too much sense for the Rams. They need a number one target and Parker is that guy.
11) Minnesota Vikings (7-9)- T.J Clemmings, OT Pittsburgh- I still believe Clemmings is a right tackle immediately, but after further studying him on tape, I think he can one day become a big time left tackle. Fortunately for Minnesota, they need a big time right tackle, and Clemmings is already that.
12) Chicago Bears from Cleveland Browns (7-9)- Jordan Phillips, NT Oklahoma- Here’s why I felt that Chicago would move down. If they want to address defensive tackle, defensive backs, or even interior offensive line, they can afford to move back and do so. That makes them a good trade partner for another team.
Phillips would be a terrific fit in John Fox’s defense as a zero technique 4-3 defensive tackle, much like Kris Jenkins from Fox’s Carolina Panthers defense in the early 2000’s.
13) New Orleans Saints (7-9)- Danny Shelton, NT Washington- Shelton ran a slow 40-time, but that doesn’t bother me. He eats blockers and stops the run as well as any defensive tackle in this draft. Rob Ryan and company will love having him in the middle of their defense.
14) Miami Dolphins (8-8)- Eddie Goldman, DT Florida State- This pick stays as is. Goldman and Miami are still a perfect match.
15) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)- Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State- Jaelen Strong had a great 40-time and vertical leap at the combine, furthering my opinion that he’s easily the number four wide out in this draft class.
16) Houston Texans (9-7)- Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State- Waynes may wind up going higher than this on draft day, but I still don’t believe that there is a top 15 corner, talent wise, in this draft.
17) San Diego Chargers (9-7)- Brandon Scherff, OG Iowa- While I have Scherff as my best offensive lineman in the draft, Clemmings upside and his ability to play tackle puts him higher on my list than a guard.
Having said that, Scherff still deserves to go top 20, just like Zack Martin did last year, and the Chargers could use interior lineman.
18) Arizona Cardinals from Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)- Alvin “Bud” Dupree, OLB Kentucky- Trade number two. Kansas City is another team in a luxury situation. There are a number of teams that need an edge rusher below them, and Bud Dupree showed his freakish athleticism at the combine, to go along with an impressive college tape. I think they can get one of Pittsburgh, Detroit or Arizona to move up a couple of spots for a big time edge rusher.
19) Cleveland Browns from Buffalo Bills (9-7)- Malcom Brown, DT/NT Texas- The Browns grabbed their wide out, they now need a nose tackle. I like Malcom Brown a lot. He’s a great pass rusher from the interior, and I think he can eat blockers as a nose tackle as well.
20) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)- Landon Collins, SS Alabama- Collins is a hard hitting, in the box safety. Like I said in my first mock draft, that makes him actually fall a bit in the draft.
However, there is no way he makes it past a team desperate for a safety.
21) Cincinnati Bengals* (10-5-1)- Nate Orchard, DE Utah- Orchard fell a bit for me because of his 40-time. It wasn’t bad, it just locked him in to a 4-3 defensive end.
The Bengals need an edge rusher opposite Carlos Dunlap, and Nate Orchard’s tape still speaks volumes for him, in my opinion. I think this is a very good fit.
22) Pittsburgh Steelers* (11-5)- Marcus Peters, CB Washington- This is probably my least confident pick in this mock draft. It’s not because the Steelers don’t need a cornerback, they absolutely do. It’s because of the player.
Yes, Peters has the talent to go even higher than this, but he has a lot of off-the-field issues. I don’t doubt that Mike Tomlin will draft Peters, despite his character issues. I doubt that the Steelers organization will be on board.
Nevertheless, the Steelers need a corner and this is a good scheme fit.
23) Detroit Lions* (11-5)- Preston Smith, DE Mississippi State- I remember when Mike first watched Preston Smith and immediately told me how much I would like him. Low and behold, he was right.
Smith is a good athlete for a 4-3 defensive end, but his strength is in his technique. He has a bevy of pass rushing moves and a motor that doesn’t turn off during games. Preston Smith and Ziggy Ansah will reek havoc in the post Ndamukong Suh era in Detroit.
24) Kansas City Chiefs from Arizona Cardinals * (11-5)- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma- Despite trading down, the Chiefs still get their game changing wide receiver. Make no mistake about it, despite his character issues, DGB is a game changing wide out. There weren’t teams behind them that were going to take a wide out. This is why I felt they could move down in the first place.
25) Carolina Panthers* (7-8-1)- Andrus Peat, OT Stanford- Peat basically swapped spots with T.J Clemmings from my last mock draft. After further evaluation, I think Clemmings has more upside.
That doesn’t mean that Peat won’t be a good tackle at the next level, and if there’s a team that can use his one-on-one blocking well, it’s the Panthers.
26) Baltimore Ravens* (10-6)- Arik Armstead, DE Oregon- This pick might as well be labeled “The Ozzie Newsome Special.” The Ravens draft a guy with top ten potential that falls in the draft because of his lack of college production statistically.
27) Dallas Cowboys* (12-4)- Shaq Thompson, OLB Washington- Thompson is like Vontae Mack from the movie “Draft Day.” If he doesn’t go to the Giants at nine, he’s going to fall hard, just like Mack said if the Browns didn’t take him at seven, he was projected to fall.
Once again, that doesn’t mean that my personal evaluation of Thompson changes. I still think he’s a game changing cover linebacker, and I think he would thrive in Dallas.
28) St. Louis Rams via Denver Broncos* (12-4)- Brett Hundley, QB UCLA- Final trade of round one here. I think one team will move back into the first round for one of Brett Hundley, Garrett Grayson or Bryce Petty. Denver could use to trade out of round one, because I believe they have a few more needs than people may realize.
I think the Rams do want to take a quarterback in the first two rounds, even though they may seem loyal to Sam Bradford. Jeff Fisher has succeeded with mobile quarterbacks in the past, and maybe he’ll find that success with Brett Hundley down the road.
For right now, Hundley’s inability to go to a second read and inconsistent accuracy make him just like every other quarterback in this draft not named Winston or Mariota: a project.
29) Indianapolis Colts* (11-5)- Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA- Just like the last mock draft, the Colts still take a game changing linebacker in Eric Kendricks.
30) Green Bay Packers* (12-4)- Stephone Anthony, ILB Clemson- Stephone Anthony has elevated to a top ten player on my personal board. The reason why he’s here and not higher is because of the teams that are drafting linebackers above, and how they fit schematically. Thompson is a cover linebacker, a good fit for Dallas. Kendricks is an all-around linebacker, something Indy desperately needs. Anthony is more of a 3-4 thumper, if you will. His ability to play the run will be welcomed in Green Bay.
31) Seattle Seahawks* (12-4)- Nelson Agholor, WR Southern California- Agholor is a playmaking wide receiver. He is a terrific route runner and high points the ball very well. He will be a great target for Russell Wilson.
32) New England Patriots* (12-4)- Ty Sambrailo, OT/OG Colorado State- Ty Sambrailo has really good footwork, and with his athletic ability to pull, I think he could be a terrific guard at the next level. That means he has versatility as an offensive lineman (listed as a tackle on some board), which makes him a prototypical New England Patriot.
TRADES:
1) Cleveland Browns trade the #12, #76 and a 2016 3rd to the Chicago Bears for the #7 and a 2016 5th.
2) Arizona Cardinals trade the #24, #86 and a 2016 5th to the Kansas City Chiefs for the #18.
3) Cleveland From Buffalo: Sammy Watkins Trade
4) St. Louis Rams trade the #41, #72 and the #202 to the Denver Broncos for the #28, #124 and the #156
Round 2
33) Tennessee Titans (2-14)- Devin Smith, WR Ohio State
34) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)- Jake Fisher, OT Oregon
35) Oakland Raiders (3-13)- Randy Gregory, DE Nebraska
36) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)- Rashad Greene, WR Florida State
37) New York Jets (4-12)- Breshad Perriman, WR UCF
38) Washington Redskins (4-12)- Carl Davis, DT/NT Iowa
39) Chicago Bears (5-11)- D.J Humphries, OT Florida
40) New York Giants (6-10)- La’el Collins, OT LSU
41) Denver Broncos via St. Louis Rams (6-10)- Laken Tomlinson, OG Duke
42) Atlanta Falcons (6-10)- Todd Gurley, RB Georgia
43) Cleveland Browns (7-9)- Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
44) New Orleans Saints (7-9)- Shane Ray, OLB Missouri
45) Minnesota Vikings (7-9)- Phillip Dorsett, WR Miami
46) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)- Quinten Rollins, CB Miami (OH)
47) Miami Dolphins (8-8)- Ronald Darby, CB Florida State
48) San Diego Chargers (9-7)- A.J Cann, OG South Carolina
49) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)- Mario Edwards Jr., DE Florida State
50) Buffalo Bills (9-7)- Garrett Grayson, QB Colorado State
51) Houston Texans (9-7)- Hau’oli Kikaha, OLB Washington
52) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)- Kevin Johnson, CB Wake Forest
53) Cincinnati Bengals* (10-5-1)- Benadrick McKinney, ILB Mississippi State
54) Detroit Lions* (11-5)- Duke Johnson, RB Miami
55) Arizona Cardinals* (11-5)- Clive Walford, TE Miami
56) Pittsburgh Steelers* (11-5)- Danielle Hunter, OLB LSU
57) Carolina Panthers* (7-8-1)- Tyler Lockett, WR Kansas State
58) Baltimore Ravens* (10-6)- Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin
59) Denver Broncos* (12-4)- Hroniss Grassu, C Oregon
60) Dallas Cowboys* (12-4)- Tevin Coleman, RB Indiana
61) Indianapolis Colts* (11-5)- Derron Smith, FS Fresno State
62) Green Bay Packers* (12-4)- Ellis McCarthy, NT UCLA
63) Seattle Seahawks* (12-4)- Cedric Ogbuehi, OT Texas A&M
64) New England Patriots* (12-4)- Devin Funchess, WR/TE Michigan
The Great Debates of the 2015 NFL Draft
By: Jordan Katz
My favorite part of the draft process is the debates that lead up to draft day. They may be a debate between two players, and which one a team should draft. They may be a debate whether to trade down, trade up, or stay put, or sometimes they are as simple as who is the next best player in a crowd of mediocrity. So in this article, I’ll shed some light on what I feel are some of the bigger “debates,” that surround the first two rounds of the draft.
1) The Case: Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota?
The Facts: This is obviously the biggest debate out there. Does a team chance Winston’s talent, despite his character issues? Does a team draft a system quarterback with off the radar intangibles? Which does a team (maybe Tampa Bay) take first, or does a team pass on them all together?
Personally, I think this debate is actually not as close as people make it out to be. Yes, I’m a believer that Marcus Mariota can succeed, despite the lack of an inventory of throws that come with a system quarterback. His accuracy and decision-making are proof that he can succeed at the next level. However, Jameis Winston is the better prospect. Let’s neglect the off the field issues for a second. Winston is better in the pocket, his arm is bigger, he can make every throw in the book, and he has the same intangibles that Mariota possesses. In fact, you could argue that between the lines of the gridiron, Winston is a better leader, having shown more poise under duress and better ability to play through adversity. Winston’s character flaws may prove to be too much for him to overcome, but in terms of a talent level, there’s not a lot of debate here.
The Verdict: Jameis Winston
2) The Case: What Should the Tennessee Titans Do with the Second Overall Pick?
The Facts: It doesn’t seem like Ken Whisenhunt is quick to move away from the quarterbacks he has, at least right now. That’s why many are not mocking one of the top two quarterbacks to the Titans. However, is that the right move? Should the Titans pass on the quarterback that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t take?
If I were in charge of the Titans draft, and I watched the Buccaneers take Jameis Winston first overall (because if they don’t, I’m drafting Winston), I would tempt the Jets and the Eagles to move up for Marcus Mariota. The Eagles connection is obvious, and if I could somehow swing Nick Foles and a second or third round pick for the number two selection, I’d take it and run. However, I doubt that Chip Kelly is doing nothing more than blowing smoke in this regard, and that he isn’t very serious on moving up for his former quarterback.
The Jets are much more likely to move up. If the Jets have the offseason they expect to have, based on the immense amount of cap room John Idzik left them, they could find themselves heading into draft day with only one glaring need, a franchise quarterback. While the Titans may not believe Mariota is that guy, the Jets may believe he is (and my gut tells me they do).
If no team bites, then I would draft Leonard Williams. Simply put, Williams is a “can’t miss,” prospect, and the Titans just need talent. Yes, this is a quarterback driven league, but since there are doubts about Marcus Mariota, I wouldn’t chance it. Rebuilding in the NFL is a marathon, not a sprint.
The Verdict: Trade Down, or Draft Leonard Williams
3) The Case: Amari Cooper or Kevin White?
The Facts: This debate may not be on a lot of people’s radar, but I think it’s a lot closer than people think. Cooper is a route running technician, he’s quick in and out of his cuts, he has great hands, and despite his size, he’s still a red zone threat.
However, Kevin White does things that Cooper doesn’t. White is a great jump ball receiver. He high points a throw very well, and can stretch the defense down the field with his speed. While Cooper is fast, he’s not a premier deep threat, nor is he a jump ball receiver. What makes this debate interesting is that White is also a very accomplished route runner for the collegiate level.
Personally, I graded Cooper just slightly better than White from watching them on tape. However, and this is a rarity for me, I think the combine will settle this debate. If both run good 40 times, Cooper will retain his slight edge. If White runs an explosive 40-yard dash, he may become the top wide receiver in the class, because he is better suited for the pro game, in my opinion.
The Verdict: Amari Cooper (for now)
4) The Case: Who’s the Next Best Quarterback after Winston and Mariota?
The Facts: I’ll go with Brett Hundley, with Garrett Grayson close behind. I don’t believe that any of these quarterbacks will wind up translating to the pros besides the top two, but I think Hundley has the best chance.
Hundley is tough to bring down, and when you compile that with his ability to scramble, he could change games with his legs. He has a good arm and shows the ability to step into his throws, when the pocket is protected well.
The problem is Hundley isn’t particularly accurate, and when he senses the slightest bit of pressure, he gets happy feet and is quick to run, rather than sliding in the pocket and buying himself time. He also has a tendency to fumble when he takes off, which is not a quality you want in a quarterback.
Despite the mixed bag, Hundley is so much further along than almost all of the “other,” quarterbacks in this draft, that he’s the clear-cut choice for being the third quarterback off the board.
The Verdict: Brett Hundley
5) The Case: When will the First Running Back be drafted, and who will it be?
The Facts: Running backs have become devalued in the NFL, which means they have become devalued in the draft process as well. The interesting thing about this draft is that the running back class is loaded. On my personal board of prospects I have four running backs in my top 35 players for this upcoming draft. There’s a big debate as to who the first running back should be, and where he should go, but, to me, there’s no debate. The first running back off the board should be Todd Gurley.
Gurley tore his ACL, which could steer teams away from him. However, there’s no doubt he’s the best running back in this class, in my opinion. He’s runs downhill and has lightning quick cutback ability. He has great vision and if you’ve seen any film on him or watched a Georgia game in the past few years, you know he’s an athlete.
Yes, Melvin Gordon was incredible at Wisconsin. However, Gordon played behind a better offensive line and in a weaker conference. Gurley put up massive production in the SEC, and I believe that he’s a more physical runner than Gordon, making him much better suited for the professional game. I still don’t see a team taking a running back in round one, but when the time comes, the name that should be called is Todd Gurley.
The Verdict: Todd Gurley, Round Two
Mike Reynolds’ Five Tips for Making a Mock Draft
The Senior Bowl has already come and gone, which means we are officially in mock draft season. Many people will attempt to make a mock draft, because quite frankly anyone can. Mock drafts are a fun way to explore what you would do if you were the GM of a team, and also learn quite a bit about the upcoming draft class before they ever hit an NFL field. However, just because anyone can make a mock draft doesn’t mean they are worth your time to read. Here are five tips to consider when making your mock draft for 2015.
1. Decide what kind of mock draft you want to make.
Wait, there is more than one kind of mock draft? Most people might not realize it but the kind of mock draft you do depends on the type of thing you are trying to predict. In my opinion, mock drafters fall into two groups.
- Those who want to accurately predict where a player falls in a round
Very self-explanatory. These mock drafters go into the draft and try to have the perfect mock draft. Their success when it comes to a mock draft comes solely from how many picks they get correct. It does feel pretty nice when you make a bold call that nobody was expecting and it comes to life.
- Those who want to accurately predict a player’s success in the NFL.
This is much different from the first type. This kind of person could doesn’t really care if their mock draft is accurate in the moment. They are in it for the long haul. I consider this strategy to be more difficult to stick with, but more rewarding in the end if you are right.
As an example, someone who predicts NFL success might have said that Aaron Curry would be a bust and at the time that would have been laughed at. Many experts said that Aaron Curry might be the best player in the 2009 draft class and eventually go to the Hall of Fame. He ended up being picked 4th overall that year. We know now that he never lived up to that standard and is now out of the league. That guy who predicted he would be a bust in 2009 can now sit smugly in 2014 knowing that he called that before Curry was even drafted.
2. Stick to your guns.
Anyone can use someone else’s ranking when they make a mock draft. I view different mock drafts because I want to see an opinion that is different from the one that everyone decided to copy from experts. The so-called “experts” can never claim that they have even been 50% accurate with their predictions, and you might have spotted something about a player that nobody else picked up on yet.
I get it. Nobody wants to be made fun of for being wrong, or have to explain their dissenting opinion to a group of angry people who want to tear them apart, but here is the thing: You are going to be wrong. Those people who are trying to correct you? They are going to be wrong too. The expert whose sources told him that the Bears would take player X? You bet he is probably going to be wrong also. There is no such thing as being 100% accurate when it comes to the NFL draft. Embrace being incorrect.
3. Know what you’re talking about.
This is important. I am a big proponent of the fact that basically anything can happen when it comes to the NFL draft, but if you are predicting the Packers to take a QB in the first round, you may want to take a step back and reconsider.
Take the time to research what position a team needs, and what position a team is set at. Make sure you know what each team drafted last year. If Team A drafted a cornerback in each of the past two drafts, chances are they won’t be going back for a third.
Also, people may not want to believe it, but position scarcity does drive where and when a player might go. Know what positions are prioritized and which ones are not. If you do these things, you might just see a lot less angry fans calling for your head when you put out your first mock of the season.
4. Remember: Teams don’t always make the smart decision.
I think this is one of the most important things to remember. If you are trying to create the most accurate mock draft you can, why are you giving every team what you consider to be their optimal choice. Everyone can most likely agree that there is going to be one pick that we consider “stupid” come draft day. So keeping this in mind, the only way to accurately predict how the draft will unfold is to try decipher which team is going to make that not so clever decision this year.
I admit, this one is kind of hard and not many people are going to go for it. Despite this, you can bet that I will be purposely including an out there selection in my mock draft in the hopes that I accurately predict which team took a swing and missed.
5. Have fun with it.
No matter your reason for making a mock draft, this is your opportunity to be the GM. If you think The Panthers would be better off trading away Cam Newton and drafting a new QB, go ahead and mock it. Anyone can look at a list of players and mock them in the same way thousands of others did.
Go crazy with it. Mock as many trades as you want. Put that third round projected player in the first round. Make decisions for your team that would drive fans absolutely crazy. Or be as accurate as you can and take solace in the fact that you nailed that one call nobody else did. It’s your mock draft. Do whatever makes you happy and be proud of it no matter the result.
Jordan Katz Big Board (Top 32)
1) Leonard Williams, DT Southern California
2) Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
3) Kevin White, WR West Virginia
4) Jordan Phillips, NT Oklahoma
5) Eddie Goldman, DT Florida State
6) DeVante Parker, WR Louisville
7) Brandon Scherff, OG Iowa
8) Landon Collins, SS Alabama
9) Dante Fowler Jr., EDGE Florida
10) Todd Gurley, RB Georgia
11) Shaq Thompson, OLB Washington
12) Nate Orchard, EDGE Utah
13) Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA
14) Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State
15) Vic Beasley, EDGE Clemson
16) Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma
17) Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA
18) Jameis Winston, QB Florida State
19) Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
20) Bud Dupree, EDGE Kentucky
21) Danny Shelton, NT Washington
22) Andrus Peat, OT Stanford
23) Eli Harold, EDGE Virginia
24) Arik Armstead, DE/DT Oregon
25) Malcolm Brown, NT Texas
26) Duke Johnson, RB Miami Florida
27) Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
28) TJ Clemmings, OT Pittsburgh
29) Marcus Peters, CB Washington
30) Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
31) Derron Smith, FS Fresno State
32) Devin Smith, WR Ohio State
Mike Reynolds Big Board
Here is my big board as it stands today. This will surely change a lot between now and the draft. This big board is based on my ratings of the players purely from a talent perspective. I don’t account for what injuries might do to their draft stock, nor any character issues. I do however take those things into account in my mock drafts.
- Leonard Williams, DT USC
- Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
- Todd Gurley, RB Georgia
- Shaq Thompson, OLB Washington
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma
- Devante Parker, WR Louisville
- Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
- Eddie Goldman, DT FSU
- Kevin White, WR West Virginia
- Eli Harold, DE/OLB Virginia
- T.J Clemmings, OT Pittsburgh
- Brandon Scherff, OT/OG Iowa
- Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson
- Danny Shelton, DT Washington
- Dante Fowler, DE/OLB Florida
- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA
- Cedric Ogbuehi, OT Texas A&M
- Marcus Peters, CB Washington
- Nate Orchard, DE Utah
- Jordan Phillips, NT Oklahoma
- Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA
- Jameis Winston, QB FSU
- Shane Ray, OLB Missouri
- Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State
- Derron Smith, FS Fresno State
- La’El Collins, OT LSU
- Tevin Coleman, RB Indiana
- Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
- Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
- Arik Armstead, DE Oregon
- Andrus Peat, OT Stanford
- Rashad Greene, WR FSU
Jordan Katz NFL Mock Draft 1.0
The wonderful NFL Mock Draft season is upon us. It is the start of the hope that comes with every offseason. For the teams that don’t make the playoffs, it’s a chance to rebuild, and a way to get back to the postseason. For those that made the playoffs, it’s chance to further your chances of making it back next season..
This season there are a lot of talented prospects. There are risk/reward players, a loaded wide receiver class, and one Jameis Winston. In reality, the debate of Winston or Marcus Mariota could determine the way the entire draft plays out. Which player do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers give the keys to their franchise to? Or do they opt to build their team further before taking a quarterback, and draft an elite prospect like Leonard Williams or Amari Cooper?
This is just the first of my mock drafts before the NFL Draft, which has now become a spectacle to behold. Since this is the first one, there are no trades, because not every spot has been set in stone yet. As the draft gets closer and closer, I’ll start mapping out trades based on which teams I think are most likely to move up or down.
ROUND ONE
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)- Jameis Winston, QB Florida State
The worst kept secret in the world is that Tampa Bay is taking a quarterback, if they stay with the first overall pick. In my opinion, Winston is actually the safer of the two quarterbacks, despite his off the field issues, because he has all the tools to be a franchise quarterback at the next level.
2) Tennessee Titans (2-14)- Leonard Williams, DT USC
Tennessee obviously needs a quarterback, but something tells me they would opt to trade down rather than drafting Marcus Mariota. Williams is my top prospect in the draft. He’s disruptive in the run game, he has elite pass rushing moves, and his versatility makes him a perfect fit opposite a zero technique in Jurrell Casey.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)- Dante Fowler Jr., DE Florida
Fowler is my top pass rusher in the draft, and for a team that needs an edge rusher this makes the most sense.
4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)- Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
Oakland is in desperate need of a number one target for Derek Carr, and Cooper is surely that guy. Cooper is an Antonio Brown clone. He excels at route running, he’s explosive out of his break and he has phenomenal hands. This is a no brainer.
5) Washington Redskins (4-12)- Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson
While Beasley isn’t my second best edge player, he’s my best 3-4 outside linebacker, which is what Washington plays. Beasley is a pass rushing extraordinaire and can rush with his hand in the dirt or standing up, which is an underrated asset for edge rushers.
6) New York Jets (4-12)- Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
Jets fans get the benefit of the Titans passing on Mariota, but is it a positive? The possibility of Mariota not translating to the pros because of Oregon’s system quarterback has been well documented. Also his lack of an inventory of throws could hurt him on draft day.
However, I believe that Mariota’s accuracy, underrated arm strength, and intelligence will allow him to overcome the “system,” critiques.
7) Chicago Bears (5-11)- Brandon Scherff, OG/OT Iowa
In my opinion, Brandon Scherff is the best offensive lineman in the draft, but he is a guard, not a tackle. This could lead the Bears to pass and go for Landon Collins, even though an in the box safety might not go that high.
If they go for offensive line, I think Scherff is so good as a guard that he should be the first offensive lineman off the board.
8) Atlanta Falcons (6-10)- Nate Orchard, DE Utah
Falcons fans, I know what your thinking. Where is Randy Gregory? I’m not as high on Gregory as others. I think he takes plays off, relies too much on his athleticism, and doesn’t set the edge well versus the run. I see Vernon Gholston 2.0.
Nate Orchard, however, is going to start flying up draft boards. He isn’t as gifted as some of the other pass rushers, but he’s smart, he has a nose for the ball and good pass rushing moves.
9) New York Giants (6-10)- Shaq Thompson, OLB Washington
Here’s my thought process with this one. Eventually the Giants are going to draft a first round linebacker. Shaq Thompson has the makings of a stud. Yes, he doesn’t have ideal size and build. Despite this he’s a beast in coverage, he ranges from sideline to sideline incredibly well, and he has a great football I.Q, something the Giants really value. This could be the time the Giants finally go linebacker because of that.
10) St. Louis Rams (6-10)- Kevin White, WR West Virginia
If Amari Cooper is the best wide receiver in this draft, then Kevin White is 1A. White has the ability to be a home run threat, as well as a red zone target. He has lethal quickness out of his cuts and is a beast in the air. If he can sure up his drops and become a more complete route runner, he could be better than Amari Cooper.
11) Minnesota Vikings (7-9)- Andrus Peat, OT Stanford
Minnesota needs a wide receiver, but there are lots of wide outs in this draft. They also need a tackle, and there are not nearly enough of those.
Peat could be a strong tackle at the next level. He has the athleticism and one-on-one blocking ability to be great in pass protection. Even though his balance is off sometimes, Peat has the makings of a solid pro.
12) Cleveland Browns (7-9)- DeVante Parker, WR Louisville
Parker looks like an unpolished A.J Green to me. He’s not as good of a route runner as Green was out of college, but he’s equally as explosive, and equally as good with the ball in the air. Parker will prove to be a great target for whomever Cleveland decides to start at quarterback in 2015.
13) New Orleans Saints (7-9)- Jordan Phillips, NT Oklahoma
Jordan Phillips is my fourth best prospect in this draft. Why? Phillips has everything I look for in a nose tackle. He eats blockers, he’s disruptive in the run game, and you can’t block him one-on-one. He’s a perfect fit for the Saints defense.
14) Miami Dolphins (8-8)- Eddie Goldman, DT Florida State
Right behind Jordan Phillips in my rankings is Eddie Goldman. He’s so disruptive in both the run and the pass game, and constantly makes big plays. The Dolphins need a 4-3 defensive tackle, and putting Goldman with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon may make the Dolphins front four one of the best in the league.
15) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)- Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State
San Francisco could go cornerback here, but I think the need to replace Michael Crabtree is too great to ignore. Strong is one of my favorite players in this draft. Some may question his release and the fact his route tree isn’t complete, but I love the upside. He’s great with the ball in his hands, he has the speed to burn defenders, and he is really good with the ball in the air.
16) Houston Texans (9-7)- Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
Waynes is an interesting case for me. He has the man coverage ability to be a shutdown corner. He seems to often be in the wide receivers pocket regardless of whether he’s off the line or in press coverage.
However, teams just seemed to avoid him in favor of better matchups. Can Waynes go from being seldom targeted to becoming frequently targeted, and remain as productive?
17) San Diego Chargers (9-7)- Landon Collins, SS Alabama
Collins would be higher if he wasn’t an in the box safety. He rarely misses a tackle, and while he is not a ball hawk, his instincts are terrific. Putting him opposite Eric Weddle could prove to be one of the best safety tandems in the league.
18) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma
If there is a team that is going to draft DGB’s talent despite his character issues, it’s going to be Andy Reid and the Chiefs. DGB’s massive size (6’6) and explosive speed make him an incredibly difficult guard for any defensive back. If he gets his off the field issues in order, he could be the steal of the draft at 18.
19) Cleveland Browns via Buffalo Bills* (9-7)- Danny Shelton, NT Washington
Shelton is very comparable to Jordan Phillips, in fact they are almost the same player. He eats blockers incredibly well, and is great in the run game. He explodes off the line and sheds blockers with his strong hands.
The difference between him and Phillips, in my opinion, is I think Phillips is dominant in the pass game as well, where as I feel Shelton has some work to do there. Shelton’s pad level is also occasionally too high.
*- Browns acquired pick in Sammy Watkins Trade
20) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)- Marcus Peters, CB Washington
Marcus Peters has off the field issues, but he also has a ton of tools. He’s got the size to man up taller receivers, the athleticism to guard the shifty wide outs, and he hawks the ball.
Peters needs to become more consistent, and could improve in press coverage, but the talent is there.
21) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA
Someone I have very high on my personal board is Owamgbe Odighizuwa. He does have an injury history, which could keep him out of the first round, but if a team is willing to overlook that, they could get a steal.
Odighizuwa has a great first step, he gaps the run well, and has the pass rushing ability equivalent of the top guys in this draft.
22) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)- Eli Harold, OLB Virginia
Still no Randy Gregory? That’s right. Still no Shane Ray? Right again.
Harold might have the most potential of the edge players in this draft. After watching Harold, I saw a number of chances for sacks where he failed to bring down the quarterback. Despite this, he still had a really productive season.
Harold has explosive speed and really good pass rushing moves. He’s also deceptively strong. If he becomes more consistent, watch out.
23) Detroit Lions (11-5)- Arik Armstead, DT Oregon- The talent is there for Arik Armstead, but he needs to become more consistent. Even though the production isn’t there, I think Armstead’s talent, along with his size and power, makes him a great replacement for Ndamukong Suh (assuming he walks in free agency).
24) Arizona Cardinals (11-5)- Shane Ray, OLB Missouri
Shane Ray is only here because I think Bud Dupree is better served as a 4-3 defensive end than a 3-4 outside linebacker. Ray is wildly inconsistent, particularly as a tackler and a run stopper. He does have great athleticism and a quick first step, but he needs to become more consistent.
25) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)- TJ Clemmings, OT Pittsburgh
I’m not sure Clemmings is the dominant tackle that other mock draft enthusiasts believe he is, but Clemmings is a behemoth in the run game. He’s strong and he does a great job of getting to the second level. I think a team that runs the ball frequently can make great use of him, and the Panthers do just that.
26) Baltimore Ravens (10-6)- Malcolm Brown, DT/NT Texas
Brown doesn’t have long arms, which could make fall on draft day. That doesn’t bother me though. I love his ability to pass rush and eat blockers. He’s strong as an ox too.
27) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)- Alvin “Bud” Dupree, DE Kentucky
Yep, you guessed it. Still no Randy Gregory.
Bud Dupree is actually one of my favorite players in the draft, despite him being in the back end of the first round. He uses his hands incredibly well as a pass rusher, and seems to have a high I.Q for a defensive lineman. Dupree gets really good leverage and he’s fast around the edge as well. There’s big upside here for Dallas with Bud Dupree.
28) Denver Broncos (12-4)- Gerrod Holliman, FS Louisville
Maybe the riskiest first round selection I have in this mock draft is Gerrod Holliman. Holliman is a ball hawk and showed the ability to read the quarterback very well at Louisville.
The negative is that Holliman is an inconsistent tackler and doesn’t put his, “hat in the ring,” versus the run.
With T.J Ward as his counterpart, I think the Broncos system sets Holliman up to succeed at the next level, making him worthy of the selection and the risk.
29) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)- Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA
Kendricks is incredibly high on my personal board, but team needs finds him falling to the Colts at the 29. I think he’s easily the best middle linebacker in the draft, because there’s nothing Kendricks doesn’t do well. He’s equally as good versus the run as he is in coverage. The Colts would be really happy with this selection.
30) Green Bay Packers (12-4)- Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
Williams looks a lot like Dwayne Allen to me. I don’t think he’ll ever be the game changer that Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski are, but his ability to block and his soft hands will make him a great weapon in a dynamic Packers offense, particularly in the red zone.
31) New England Patriots (12-4)- Derron Smith, FS Fresno State
Derron Smith needs to improve in his angles to ball carriers, but he is a terrific tackler, he plays the run well, and he is a ball hawk. Should the Patriots lose Devin McCourty to free agency, Bill Belichick will probably be all over Smith’s upside in round one.
32) Seattle Seahawks (12-4)- La’el Collins, OT LSU- Had this been two weeks ago, I would’ve told you that the Seahawks selection at tackle was Cedric Ogbuehi. However, after his injury, he may fall in the draft. This elevates La’el Collins to this position.
Collins is unpolished in pass protection, but he’s a good run blocker and has ideal size for the position. He also does a good job of getting to the second level.
Mike Reynolds Mock Draft 1.0
1. Tampa Bay (2-14): Jameis Winston, QB FSU
- The Bucs haven’t had consistent QB Play in years. Winston is a head case, but he’s the best in the class.
2. Tennessee (2-14): Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
- Many believe Tennessee is content with Mettenberger, but I’m not so sure Wisenhunt would risk his job on a 6th round pick.
3. Jacksonville (3-13): Leonard Williams, DE/DT USC
- Possibly the best player in the class falls to number three. Gus Bradley would love to add the versatile defensive linemen to help build up his defense.
4. Oakland (3-13): Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
- The Raiders drafted their franchise QB, it’s time to start giving him some weapons.
5. Washington (4-12): Eli Harold, EDGE Virginia
- A possible surprise at number five. The Redskins were bottom 10 in total sacks in 2014 and Brian Orakpo’s future in Washington is unclear.
6. New York Jets (4-12): Devante Parker, WR Louisville
- With the top two QB’s off the board, the Jets attempt to give what they have a dynamic option.
7. Chicago (5-11): Shaq Thompson, OLB Washington
- The Bears just didn’t have a good defense in 2014. The most versatile player in the draft can help them in coverage, and in run defense.
8. Atlanta (6-10): Vic Beasley, EDGE Clemson
- In a quarterback league, it’s inexcusable to only have 22 sacks in a season. An edge rusher is Atlanta’s number one need.
9. New York Giants (6-10): T.J Clemmings, OT Pittsburgh
- Justin Pugh is more suited to play inside, and T.J Clemmings may have the highest upside of any OT in the draft.
10. St. Louis (6-10): Kevin White, WR West Virginia
- The Rams needed to turn to Kenny Britt in the regular season due to poor receiver play, and he will be a free agent.
11. Minnesota (7-9): Brandon Scherff OG/OT Iowa
- Minnesota’s interior line has not been too great. They need to add anything they can to the line to protect Teddy Bridgewater,
12. Cleveland (7-9): Danny Shelton, NT Washington
- Ahtyba Rubin is a free agent this offseason. Shelton not only provides a replacement, but a potential upgrade from day one.
13. New Orleans (7-9): Shane Ray, EDGE Missouri
- The Saints could be dealing with Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Winston in 2015. Pressuring them is very important if they want to have a chance at another Super Bowl before Drew Brees retires.
14. Miami (8-8): Eddie Goldman, DT FSU
- Miami’s interior defensive line has been very underwhelming. Adding Goldman will take pressure off Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.
15. San Francisco (8-8): Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
- The 49ers always have a lot of draft picks. Depth at CB couldn’t hurt.
16. Houston (9-7): Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State
- Andre Johnson had his worst healthy season since… Well, ever. It’s time to start looking for his replacement.
17. San Diego (9-7): Dante Fowler, EDGE Florida
- San Diego’s pass rush is pitiful. Fowler might not have the upside of some rushers this year, but he’s the most NFL ready.
18. Kansas City (9-7): Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA
- WR is a bigger need, but the top four are already gone. Putting Kendricks next to a healthy Derrick Johnson will instantly fix the Chiefs run stopping woes.
19. Cleveland from Buffalo (9-7): Randy Gregory, EDGE Nebraska
- You can never have enough pass rushers, and Cleveland can’t pass up on Randy Gregory’s potential. The Browns can let him sit behind Barkevious Mingo and Paul Kruger for a year or two.
20. Philadelphia (10-6): Landon Collins, SS Alabama
- Nate Allen’s contract is up, and frankly he just wasn’t that good anyway. The Eagles enjoy his replacement falling right into their lap.
21. Cincinnati (10-5-1): Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA
- Losing Michael Johnson affected this pass rush a lot more than anybody thought. Odighizuwa’s quick first step and non stop motor are a good step toward fixing that.
22. Pittsburgh (11-5): Jordan Phillips, NT Oklahoma
- The Steelers haven’t had an effective Nose Tackle since Casey Hampton. Phillips 6’6” 324 pound frame will eat up blockers.
23. Detroit (11-5): La’El Collins, OT LSU
- Matt Stafford was sacked 45 times in 2014. The Lions need to buy him more time for Johnson and Tate to get open.
24. Arizona (11-5): Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
- Maxx Williams is a matchup nightmare, and might prove deadly alongside Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.
25. Carolina (7-8-1): Andrus Peat, OT Stanford
- The Panthers have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Cam can buy time with his legs, but I doubt he would complain about having more time in the pocket.
26. Baltimore (10-6): Marcus Peters, CB Washington
- The injury bug destroyed the Raven secondary in 2014. Depth is a primary concern.
27. Dallas (12-4): Nate Orchard, DE Utah
- A lot went right for Dallas this year, but their pass rush was still below average. Demarcus Lawrence and Nate Orchard could be a dynamic duo for years to come.
28. Denver (12-4): Malcolm Brown, DT Texas
- Jack Del Rio is out in Denver and it looks like Knighton might be gone with him. Malcolm Brown can come in and start right away.
29. Indianapolis (11-5): Arik Armstead, DE Oregon
- The Colts need a lot. Armstead has athleticism and physique that scouts drool over.
30. Green Bay (12-4): Anthony Harris, SS Virginia
- Green Bay fans are getting tired of Morgan Burnett’s inconsistent performances. Anthony Harris can push him for the starting job.
31. New England (12-4): A.J Cann, OG South Carolina
- They could use a WR, but Bill will never take one in round one. Look for him to go back to the trenches on the first day.
32. Seattle (12-4): Ereck Flowers, OT Miami
- Elite teams stay great by stocking up in the trenches. The Seahawks might make Russell Wilson the richest man in the NFL, so they should use a high pick to protect that investment.
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