Jordan Katz’s 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Prediction Style
Well, after taking the year off to focus on other things, Mock Lyfe is back just in time for the NFL Draft! Since I did not watch my normal number of prospects this year, this mock is strictly a prediction-style mock; the goal is to get as many picks and trades correct as I can. I attempted to go three rounds, which will inevitably be a disaster in what is a lackluster draft, to say the least, but who wants to write case studies and unit plans, am I right?
Let’s cook.
ROUND ONE
1) Carolina Panthers (from Bears): Bryce Young, QB Alabama- Carolina put together a very nice offseason, adding multiple veteran weapons to an offense that lacked those this past season. The final piece is inserting a rookie quarterback with high upside. While you can argue that type of quarterback may not exist in this draft, Bryce Young’s intelligence wowed many people during the draft process. Despite his size, Young gets the ball out of his hands quickly and likely would excel in an up-tempo west coast offense at the next level. If that’s where the Panthers go offensively, he stands a good chance of being successful.
2) Houston Texans: Tyree Wilson, EDGE Texas Tech- It feels odd that everyone is saying they have no idea what Houston is going to do because almost everyone has mocked a defensive player to the Texans at two. One of these teams at the top is going to pass on these quarterbacks to enter the Caleb Williams sweepstakes next year. The Texans have three picks in the top 35, giving them a great chance to build out their roster and insert the quarterback last.
Should they go the defense route, Tyree Wilson’s upside as a pass rusher is going to be extremely attractive to new Head Coach DeMeco Ryans.
3) Arizona Cardinals: Paris Johnson Jr., OT Ohio State– Arizona is going to desperately try to trade out of this pick, but their chances of doing so do not appear high at the moment. If Houston passes on a quarterback, keep an eye on the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings attempting to pass Indianapolis and Seattle to land their quarterback of the future.
If Arizona stays here, this will be the shocker of the first 10 picks. Paris Johnson is presumed to be the first offensive lineman off the board, but no one has him this high. Kyler Murray has once again requested an offensive lineman to be drafted, and the Cardinals used a top-30 visit on Johnson. This is my “bold call,” of the top 10.
4) Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB Kentucky- There is a lot of talk about the quarterbacks going lower than expected as a collective group. That might be true, but can you recall a year in recent memory when that actually happened? Many think Levis has elite upside, despite being an unpolished gunslinger. He has a big arm and some elite tools, but he turns the ball over a lot. The question is whether a team can polish his mechanics and teach him the proper times to take 50/50 chances.
5) Seattle Seahawks (from Broncos): Anthony Richardson, QB Florida- If Seattle is going to take a quarterback, which is extremely possible, it’s going to be Anthony Richardson. Richardson has elite upside, but he needs a year or two to sit and learn the nuances of the quarterback position. Fortunately, Seattle has that ideal situation because of the play of Geno Smith. Richardson truly has a chance to be elite if put in the right position. I think Seattle plays the long game with this pick if Richardson is available.
6) Detroit Lions (from Rams): Will Anderson Jr, EDGE Alabama– Detroit’s defense needs to improve in 2023 if they want to go back to the postseason. Fortunately for them, the best pass rusher in the draft has fallen into their lap. Imagine the Lions lining up Anderson’s ability off the edge next to Aidan Hutchinson. Sheeeeeeesh.
7) *TRADE* Tennesse Titans (from Raiders): CJ Stroud, QB Ohio State- Another rumor I’m choosing to buy is the fall of CJ Stroud. There have been a number of reports leaking about Stroud, the most popular of which was his subpar Wonderlic score. Now the leaks could definitely be a ploy to talk some teams out of pulling the trigger on Stroud early, and in reality, no one bites. However, sometimes these draft ploys work. In a year where the rankings for the top quarterbacks are all over the map, someone falling lower than expected is probable.
If that guy is Stroud, look for Tennessee to try and move up quickly. They still believe in their roster, and they need a quarterback of the future.
8) Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB Texas- It’s weird to see a non-playoff team make what many feel would be a luxury pick, but Atlanta desperately needs a premier running back for their offense to take a step forward. Robinson is arguably the best player in this draft, and worthy of bucking the running back trend. Plus, he’s the odds-on favorite for the Falcons selection, which means more than you would think this time of year.
9) Chicago Bears (from Panthers): Broderick Jones, OT Alabama- If the Bears fail to protect Justin Fields in 2023, they risk the chance of ruining him. This team desperately needs a left tackle, and the tackles at the top of this draft are NFL-ready. Many would rather see Broderick Jones on the right side in the NFL, but he has a terrific collegiate resume in pass protection. Chicago should, and I emphasize should, take the best offensive lineman and run at the ninth selection.
10) Philadelphia Eagles (from Saints): Jalen Carter, IDL Georgia- Carter’s off-the-field concerns are part of the reason many think he can slide down the draft board a bit. Should that slide happen, Philadelphia at 10 is his floor. This is a luxury pick for Howie Roseman, whose Eagles will be Super Bowl favorites in 2023. Pairing Carter, who many feel is the most talented player in the draft, with Jordan Davis and Fletcher Cox, would give the Eagles an elite interior defense.
11) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (from Titans): Devon Witherspoon, CB Illinois- When quarterbacks go early, talented players slide down the draft board. That’s what happens here with Witherspoon. He’s viewed as the top cornerback in the draft class because of his competitive nature in coverage. The Raiders desperately need cornerback help, so this seems like an ideal match. The fact that the Raiders could trade down and still add their guy is an added bonus.
12) Houston Texans (from Browns): Peter Skoronski, OL Northwestern- Skoronski’s versatility will be extremely attractive to a lot of teams in the top 15. Daniel Jeremiah compared him to Alijah Vera-Tucker because he has the ability and intelligence to play guard or tackle, but his length is the one question mark. The Texans need help at both spots, making Skoronski an ideal fit if he is available.
13) Green Bay Packers: Jaxon Smith-Ngjiba, WR Ohio State- Many believe the reason the Packers were so adamant about moving from 15 to 13 was to ensure Jaxon Smith-Ngjiba. “JSN,” is the unequivocal best receiver in the draft, and he’s a perfect compliment to last year’s draft pick; Christian Watson. This gives Jordan Love two young playmakers to gain a rapport with.
14) *TRADE* Kansas City Chiefs (from Patriots): Zay Flowers, WR Boston College- If a year has ever screamed “Bill Belichick trades down,” it’s a draft as weak as this one. Conversely, these are the kind of drafts where playoff teams move up to secure a top-tier player that can help them win now. Flowers has a lot of buzz to be the number one receiver taken during the draft, and the Chiefs are a little thin at pass catcher. Keep an eye on them being aggressive in that department during the early stages of this draft.
15) *TRADE* Minnesota Vikings (from Jets): Hendon Hooker, QB Tennessee- Mark my words; Hendon Hooker is going to find his way into the top 20. Even though he’s an older prospect, the quarterback talent in the league right now is just so thin. Someone will roll the dice on Hooker’s mobility and down-the-field ability. Minnesota is looking for the heir to Kirk Cousins’ throne, making them an ideal team to trade up for a quarterback during this draft.
16) Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB Penn State– Washington needs secondary help, and they are in a prime position to address that at 16. Personally, I feel that Porter Jr. will go higher than this on draft day. Despite lacking big turnover production in college, his ability in man coverage is top-tier. This is around where many have him, but for me, this is his floor on draft night.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Darnell Wright, OT Tennessee- Wright is an excellent run blocker and projects to be a quality right tackle at the next level. For the Steelers, Wright seems like “option A,” at 17. Pittsburgh’s O-Line is weak, they like to run the ball, and Wright is expected to go in this range.
18) Detroit Lions: Brian Branch, S Alabama– Detroit continues to revamp their defense with the addition of Brian Branch here. Branch is the clear-cut top safety in a weak draft at that position. He can do-it-all, and he can anchor a defense from day one. Branch could go much earlier than this because he’s the only elite safety in this draft. If he falls a bit, keep an eye on teams trying to trade up for the former Alabama star.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kelee Ringo, CB Georgia- Someone that many are prognosticating as a day two pick who likely sneaks into round one is Keele Ringo. Ringo has had a ton of meetings throughout the draft process, and there are a lot of teams in round one that need secondary help. One of those teams is Tampa Bay, which is why he lands here.
20) Seattle Seahawks: Nolan Smith, EDGE Georgia- Speaking of big-time athletes with high upside, allow me to draw your attention to Nolan Smith. Smith has a ridiculous burst and the ability to wreck games off the edge. However, he’s a bit undersized, and his move set isn’t complete. Nevertheless, he dips and bends at an elite level, and he’s one of the best pound-for-pound athletes in the class.
Miami Dolphins: FORFEITED
21) Los Angeles Chargers: Adetomiwa Adebawore, IDL Northwestern- Adebawore feels like an under-the-radar lock for round one. Combine risers in weak draft classes tend to go higher than people think. Teams believe that if you give them an athlete, they can coach him up and make him a quality player. Adebawore doesn’t have a ton of sacks on his resume, but he’s solid everywhere and he tested off the charts athletically. The Chargers need help in their run defense, which makes Adebawore a good fit.
22) Baltimore Ravens: Christian Gonzalez, CB Oregon- This is probably the stunner of my first round so far. Gonzalez could easily wind up in the top 10; in fact, many have him there. So, why the slide? Part of projecting the draft is taking educated gambles. Odds are, Gonzalez’s elite speed and length, combined with his ball skills and quality tape, land him in the top 16. However, no one used a top 30 visit on him. It could be because teams saw all they needed to see at the combine, but it also could be because teams are more committed to other players. Either way, Baltimore scoops up a quality corner here at 22.
23) *TRADE* New York Jets (from Vikings): John Michael Schmitz, IOL Minnesota- The Jets have been infatuated with John Michael Schmitz for almost the entire draft process. If the top three O-Linemen are gone by the time the Jets pick at 15, they’ll open up the phones to those that want to ensure “their guy.” If they do move back, they will look to move into a range to acquire John Michael Schmitz, whom many feel is a day-one starter at the center position.
24) *TRADE* Indianapolis Colts (from Jaguars): Bryan Bresee, IDL Clemson- In a rare, inter-division early draft trade, the Colts come up for someone they appear to covet during the draft process. Bresee is stout against the run, and some feel he has good upside as a pass rusher. The Colts have met with him and used a top-30 visit on him, so they get aggressive to bolster their trenches.
25) New York Giants: Deonte Banks, CB Maryland- The Giants have a few glaring needs, one of which is a number two cornerback. Deonte Banks was a big riser during the draft process. At 6’2 and a 40 time of 4.35 seconds, teams are going to fall in love with his traits. He also has very good ball skills. If his technique can be cleaned up a bit, Banks has one of the higher ceilings in the draft.
26) Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE Notre Dame-I think Dallas is locked into tight end here at 26. Dalton Schultz is gone, and the top tight ends in this class can be game-changers. Michael Mayer is the best blocker of the bunch, and he has good hands to match. This feels like Mayer’s floor in this draft.
27) Buffalo Bills: Jordan Addison, WR USC- Keep an eye on the Bills being aggressive in this draft for a receiver. On top of Gabe Davis struggling last season, Stefon Diggs has gone semi-awol, and we all remember what happened when he did that in Minnesota. Addison is one of the best route runners in the draft, and he wins a lot from the slot. He would be a perfect compliment to Stefon Diggs in the Bills’ offense… or perhaps, a replacement?
28) Cincinnati Bengals: Emmanuel Forbes, CB Mississippi State- Forbes makes the sixth cornerback to go in the first round of this mock draft. That number feels astronomical, but the cornerback class has a lot of talent at the top. 14 interceptions in college is a big number, which is why Forbes will likely go in the first 40 picks despite his stature. The Bengals make their money in the back end by forcing turnovers, which should make Forbes an ideal fit.
29) New Orleans Saints (from 49ers): Myles Murphy, EDGE Clemson- Murphy’s slide is one to look out for on draft day. Once again, this is not because of Murphy the prospect. He’s 6’5 with big-time athleticism and he dominates off the edge. It has more to do with the potential slide of the edge class due to the cornerbacks and quarterbacks taking up a bulk of the first round. Murphy’s talent should land him in the top 15. However, he could be one of those “how is he still available,” guys in this draft.
30) Philadelphia Eagles: Will McDonald IV, EDGE Iowa State- Someone I wanted to go a lot higher in this mock than he did is Will McDonald. 11 teams used top 30 visits on him. One of those teams was the Eagles. For a team with an aging Brandon Graham starting at one edge, and an inconsistent Derek Barnett backing him up, adding a player like McDonald in the back end of round one feels obvious.
31) *TRADE* New England Patriots (from Chiefs Lukas Van Ness, EDGE Iowa- This could be the most Bill Belichick thing I have ever mocked in my entire career. Belichick slides down the draft board, acquires future assets, and selects an intelligent pass rusher who controls their gaps and can play in multiple systems. Go ahead, tell me I’m wrong…
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) The Tennessee Titans trade the #11, #72, and a 2024 2nd round pick to the Las Vegas Raiders for the #7 and a 2024 4th round pick.
2) The Kansas City Chiefs trade the #31, #134, and a 2024 1st-round pick to the New England Patriots for the 14th overall selection.
3) The Minnesota Vikings trade the #23, #87, and a 2024 2nd-round pick to the New York Jets for the 15th overall selection.
4) The Indianapolis Colts trade the #35, #79, and #106 to the Jacksonville Jaguars for the #24 and #121.
ROUND TWO
32) Pittsburgh Steelers (from Bears): Julien Brents, CB Kansas State
33) Houston Texans: Drew Sanders, LB Arkansas
34) *TRADE* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Cardinals): Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Alabama
35) *TRADE* Jacksonville Jaguars (from Colts): Anton Harrison, OT Oklahoma
36) Los Angeles Rams: DJ Turner, CB Michigan
37) Seattle Seahawks (from Broncos): Calijah Kancey, IDL Pittsburgh
38) Las Vegas Raiders: Joe Tippmann, IOL Wisconsin
39) Carolina Panthers: Jonathan Mingo, WR Ole Miss
40) New Orleans Saints: Jalin Hyatt, WR Tennessee
41) Tennessee Titans: Steve Avila, IOL TCU
42) Green Bay Packers (from Jets via Browns): Dalton Kincaid, TE Utah
43) New York Jets: Matthew Bergeron, OL Syracuse
44) Atlanta Falcons: Trenton Simpson, LB Clemson
45) Green Bay Packers: BJ Ojulari, EDGE LSU
46) New England Patriots: Cody Mauch, OL North Dakota State
47) Washington Commanders: Darnell Washington, TE Georgia
48) Detroit Lions: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE Kansas State
49) Pittsburgh Steelers: Mazi Smith, IDL Michigan
50) *TRADE* Arizona Cardinals (from Buccaneers): O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL Florida
51) Miami Dolphins: Sam LaPorta, TE Iowa
52) Seattle Seahawks: Trey Palmer, WR Nebraska
53) Chicago Bears (from Ravens): Derick Hall, DL Auburn
54) Los Angeles Chargers: Zach Charbonnet, RB UCLA
55) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Lions via Vikings): Keion White, EDGE Georgia Tech
56) Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Schoonmaker, TE Michigan
57) New York Giants: Quentin Johnson, WR TCU
58) Dallas Cowboys: Tuli Tuipilotu, EDGE USC
59) Buffalo Bills: Tyler Steen, OL Alabama
60) Cincinnati Bengals: Luke Musgrave, TE Oregon State
61) Chicago Bears (from 49ers): Keaanu Benton, IDL Wisconsin
62) Philadelphia Eagles: Kendre Miller, RB TCU
63) Kansas City Chiefs: Dawand Jones, OT Ohio State
TRADES IN ROUND TWO
1) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade the #50 and #82 to the Arizona Cardinals for the #34 and #180.
2) The Denver Broncos trade the #68, #108, and a 2024 4th-round pick to the Detroit Lions for the 55th overall selection
ROUND THREE
64) Chicago Bears: Tyrique Stevenson, CB Miami
65) Houston Texans: Marvin Mims Jr., WR Oklahoma
66) Arizona Cardinals: Luke Wypler, IOL Ohio State
67) Denver Broncos (from Colts): Cam Smith, CB South Carolina
68) *TRADE* Detroit Lions (from Broncos): Jack Campbell, LB Iowa
69) Los Angeles Rams: Ji’Ayir Brown, S Penn State
70) Las Vegas Raiders: Tucker Kraft, TE South Dakota State
71) New Orleans Saints: YaYa Diaby, EDGE Louisville
72) Tennessee Titans: Jordan Battle, S Alabama
73) Houston Texans (from Browns): DeMarvion Overshown, LB Texas
74) Cleveland Browns (from Jets): Zach Harrison, EDGE Ohio State
75) Atlanta Falcons: Tyler Scott, WR Cincinnati
76) New England Patriots (from Panthers): Jaquelin Roy, IDL LSU
77) Los Angeles Rams (from Patriots via Dolphins): Tyjae Spears, RB Tulane
78) Green Bay Packers: Chandler Zavala, IOL NC State
79) *TRADE* Jacksonville Jaguars (from Colts via Commanders): Blake Freeland, OT BYU
80) Pittsburgh Steelers: Henry To’oTo’o, LB Alabama
81) Detroit Lions: Jayden Reed, WR Michigan State
82) *TRADE* Arizona Cardinals (from Bucs): Sydney Brown, S Illinois
83) Seattle Seahawks: Nick Herbig, LB Wisconsin
84) Miami Dolphins: Zacch Pickens, IDL South Carolina
85) Los Angeles Chargers: Jartavius Martin, CB Illinois
86) Baltimore Ravens: Jaelyn Duncan, OT Maryland
87) *TRADE* New York Jets (from Vikings): Marte Mapu, LB/S Sacramento State
88) Jacksonville Jaguars: Garrett Williams, CB Syracuse
89) New York Giants: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE Notre Dame
90) Dallas Cowboys: Tank Bigsby, RB Auburn
91) Buffalo Bills: Darius Rush, CB South Carolina
92) Cincinnati Bengals: BJ Thompson, DL Stephen F Austin
93) Carolina Panthers (from 49ers): Byron Young, EDGE Tennessee
94) Philadelphia Eagles: Riley Moss, CB Iowa
95) Kansas City Chiefs: Cedric Tillman, WR Tennessee
96) Arizona Cardinals: Roschon Johnson, RB Texas
97) Washington Commanders: Eli Ricks, CB Alabama
98) Cleveland Browns: Clark Phillips III, CB Utah
99) San Francisco 49ers: Joey Fisher, OL Shepherd
100) Las Vegas Raiders (from Chiefs via Giants): Jaren Hall, QB BYU
101) San Francisco 49ers: Tre’Vius Hodge-Tomlinson, CB TCU
102) San Francisco 49ers: Nathaniel Dell, WR Houston
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