Jordan Katz’s Prediction Style 2021 NFL Mock Draft 4.0: Final
Finally…. the NFL Draft… HAS COME BACK! The day has finally arrived. Free agency is fun, but this is the official start to the new season. Every draft brings optimism for all 32 teams. The hope that your favorite team will find the next NFL star to catapult that specific franchise to a Super Bowl title.
For those new to my mock drafts, this is the more traditional style mock draft that you see in the media. The goal is not to give you my opinion on certain players. The goal is also not to give my opinion on what teams should do (if you’re looking for those, check out my big board or my “What I Would Do” mock draft on the main website page). The goal is strictly to get all of the picks correct.
In normal years, I would do a three round prediction mock. However, so much changes after round one. Once the first couple of surprises go, day two becomes a mess. Therefore, I will be doing TWO predictive mocks this year; this one rounder, and a day two predictive mock on Friday based on what happened Thursday night. So make sure you come back tomorrow afternoon for what your favorite team could do on day two.
Now that my journalistic tease is out of the way, it’s time to break down the first round in the 2021 NFL Draft. Some of these might be right, some of these might be wildly off. Nevertheless, I can guarantee one thing about this mock draft; this is the weirdest draft I have ever published. Some obvious round one players aren’t here, and some surprises found their way into the first round. It’s going to be that kind of draft, so mentally prepare yourselves for chaos.
Without further adieu, let’s mock.
ROUND ONE
1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson- The worst kept secret for two years now is that Trevor Lawrence will be the number one overall pick. He can truly do it all. Lawrence throws a great deep ball, he makes multiple reads and he’s accurate at all three levels. Plus, he’s got the mobility required for the modern day position.
Having said that, no one can do it all on their own. Jacksonville has to build a team around him to allow Lawrence to be as successful as everyone thinks he will be.
2) New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB BYU- For a long time, many felt this would be Justin Fields. However, Wilson’s fit in the Kyle Shanahan offense is what locked him into this second selection. Head Coach Robert Saleh and Offensive Coordinator Mike LaFluer are bringing the San Francisco offense to the east coast. Wilson’s mobility, his quick release and his ability to fit throws into tight windows are extremely attractive qualities to LaFluer’s offense. Much like Lawrence, Wilson to the Jets feels like a foregone conclusion as well.
3) San Francisco 49ers (from Dolphins via Texans): Mac Jones, QB Alabama- It seems like the Niners are either selecting Mac Jones or Trey Lance at this pick. The media might be shifting towards Lance, but Mac Jones still feels like the answer because he does a lot of things that Kyle Shanahan will like. The ball gets out of his hands quickly, he’s accurate in the short yardage window, and he’s intelligent with the football.
4) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (from Falcons): Justin Fields, QB Ohio State- Atlanta has desired to trade down and acquired assets to rebuild for quite some time. Not to mention, Kyle Pitts went on NFL Network and accidentally let it slip that his camp expects quarterbacks to go in the first four picks. That leads me to believe that Atlanta will trade this pick.
As for the reason the Bears move up, Chicago has done a really good job of convincing everyone that they are committed to starting Andy Dalton. Now I’m going to pause as y’all reread that last sentence and think about whether it’s a smoke screen or not…
Chicago has all of their future assets, and they are desperate for a franchise quarterback. Therefore, even though Ryan Pace is on the hot seat, this is a move that ownership would approve.
The reason this is Fields and not Trey Lance is because Fields is further along in his development. I think the NFL feels that Trey Lance has to sit a year, whereas Fields can start right away.
5) Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU- While this should be an offensive linemen to help keep Joe Burrow upright, they seem committed to getting Burrow his former number one target. Having lost AJ Green this offseason, the Bengals do need a true number one receiver. It seems they want that to be Chase.
6) Miami Dolphins (from Eagles): Rashawn Slater, OL Northwestern- After the trade of Ereck Flowers, reports are that Miami is looking at one of the top offensive linemen on the board at six. For a long time, Daniel Jeremiah has led the charge that Rashawn Slater is the top offensive linemen in this class. Based on the way the media has reported in the last few weeks, the NFL might be thinking that way too. Slater’s versatility to excel at guard or tackle could make him the first offensive linemen selected tonight.
7) *TRADE* New England Patriots (from Lions): Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State- This may surprise people that Lance is QB5, but I think Lance might be more likely to go behind Fields rather than in front of him. If Atlanta has successfully teased a quarterback, the dots will be connected for the selection to be Justin Fields (even though I don’t think that’s the quarterback they want if they made that pick). Fields is from the Georgia area and he has a skill set that many admire.
If Lance does fall, I think Bill Belichick gets even more aggressive than expected. Lance is just 20 years old and has the skill set to succeed in a Belichick/McDaniels offense.
8) Carolina Panthers: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida- If Carolina gets stuck at this selection, they will likely take the best offensive player on their board. Pitts can beat tight coverage on the outside, he can win 50/50 balls, and he stretches the defense down the field with elite speed. He’s the kind of weapon that can make this offense elite.
9) Denver Broncos: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina- The betting odds have swung immensely towards Horn being the top defensive player. Surtain is still the favorite, but Horn’s odds have increased drastically. Denver needs a corner, and Vic Fangio likes to play an aggressive style of defense. This could be a surprise that few see coming.
10) Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama- It’s no secret that Dallas is actively pursuing a number one corner at the 10th selection. If Horn and Surtain are on the board, I think Horn could be the pick because of Dan Quinn. Quinn likes to play man-to-man, and the best man cover corner in the draft is Jaycee Horn. If Horn is off the board, Surtain will be the pick.
11) New York Giants: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon- If one of the offensive linemen slides, I don’t see how the Giants pass at 11. Sewell can take over the left tackle spot, and Thomas can move to the right side to be an impactful force in the run game. This seems like a no brainer move.
Editor’s Note: If Sewell and Slater are both gone, expect Micah Parsons here. Dave Gettleman supposedly loves the Penn State standout because he’s a three down linebacker that gets to the passer.
12) Philadelphia Eagles (from Dolphins via 49ers): Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama- Getting Jalen Hurts a playmaker sounds like Philly’s motive in round one. Waddle makes more sense than DeVonta Smith because of the offense that Philly is looking to implement under their new regime.
13) Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia- Darrisaw’s size, length and athleticism make him a very attractive prospect to many teams. The Chargers need to protect Justin Herbert better in 2021. I think there’s a chance the Chargers try to trade up for Slater or Sewell, but Darrisaw is a nice consolation prize if the Chargers stay at 13.
14) Minnesota Vikings: Jayson Oweh, EDGE Penn State- This could be the upset of round one. Minnesota desperately needs offensive line help, and there are a lot of good ones on the board.
However, they also need a pass rusher to compliment Danielle Hunter. They will have the opportunity to pick the top edge player on the board here at 14.
I have said for over a month now that Oweh will shock the media and be the top edge player taken. He’s an elite athlete, which is the most attractive quality to NFL teams. They believe they can coach up the technical aspects of any position, as long as the prospect has elite athleticism to match. Plus, the Vikings have already done this with Danielle Hunter. Oweh is a similar kind of pass rusher, which makes this an excellent fit.
15) *TRADE* Detroit Lions (from Patriots): Micah Parsons, LB Penn State- There are a lot of reports around Detroit and Micah Parsons. This could be in play at seven, but the more likely scenario is Detroit moving down and selecting him. Parsons is a three down linebacker that can get to the passer. More importantly, he’s an impact defensive player, which is something Detroit desperately needs.
16) Arizona Cardinals: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama- I’m not sure this is the smartest selection, but supposedly the Cardinals are looking for a pass catcher to pair with DeAndre Hopkins for the future. If Smith slides down the board because of his size, I think Kliff Kingsbury scoops him up. Smith would be an excellent scheme fit in Arizona’s offense.
17) Las Vegas Raiders: Tevin Jenkins, OT Oklahoma State- Anything on the offensive line is a quality pick for the Raiders during the first two days. Jenkins can start at either tackle spot from day one, but it’s his power and grip strength that will be most attractive to the Raiders’ brass.
18) Miami Dolphins: Najee Harris, RB Alabama- This is the ceiling for the former Alabama star. There has been recent buzz that Harris may not be available by the Steelers pick. If that’s the case, it’s because the Dolphins select the feature back that they need to create a balanced attack.
19) Washington Football Team: Zaven Collins, OLB Tulsa- A 260 pound off ball linebacker that can rush the passer and drop in coverage just does not come around all that often. Collins is the chess piece that Ron Rivera is looking for in order to elevate Washington’s defense to an elite level.
20) *TRADE* Atlanta Falcons (from Bears): Jaelan Phillips, EDGE Miami- Phillips is the most well rounded edge rusher in the draft class. He can dip and bend off the edge, he can counterpunch, and he has a bevy of moves. If his medical checks out, he should be one of the top edge players selected.
Side note, this is the DREAM scenario for the Atlanta Falcons.
21) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (from Colts): Travis Etienne, RB Clemson- The Bills are looking for a running back to help create a truly balanced offense. Buffalo does not have many needs, which is why they can move some capital to land the player they covet. Based on the rumors, the guy they covet is Etienne because of his home run ability and pass catching skills.
Indianapolis is a sneaky trade down candidate because they lost assets in the Carson Wentz deal. Therefore, the trade makes sense on their end as well.
22) Tennessee Titans: Greg Newsome II, CB Northwestern- Many are inserting pass catcher here, but the Titans also need a top flight corner. Newsome’s aggressiveness in man coverage will be too much for Mike Vrabel and company to pass on, assuming he is available here.
23) New York Jets (via Seahawks): Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL USC- The Jets could get aggressive and try to move up for the former USC star. Vera-Tucker will be an elite left guard in the Shanahan/LaFluer offense because of his footwork and hip fluidity. If the Jets can land him at 23, that is the best possible outcome for all of Jets nation.
24) Pittsburgh Steelers: Creed Humphrey, IOL Oklahoma- The run on offensive linemen in round one continues. This could be a running back, but both of the top guys are off the board. If that’s the way the draft falls, the Steelers likely wait until round two to select their “bell cow.”
Humphrey is viewed as the top center in the draft, which is something the Steelers need after Maurkice Pouncey left this offseason.
25) Jacksonville Jaguars (via Rams): Trevon Moehrig, FS TCU- Jacksonville needs a lot, but they also have a lot of picks in this draft. Their need for secondary can be solved here at 25 by taking one of the few stars at the safety position in this draft.
Moehrig has single high ability, but he also can play some nickel corner. He’s an aggressive tackler and a ball hawk. He’s the kind of player the Jaguars need in the back end of their defense.
26) Cleveland Browns: Christian Barmore, IDL Alabama- It sounds like Barmore will land in round one, which means the Browns take him at 26. The one thing the Browns have to come away with in this draft is a run stopper in the middle of their defense. Enter Christian Barmore.
27) Baltimore Ravens: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU- Mel Kiper has had Marshall mocked to the Ravens for a very long time now. Normally when he pulls this move in the back end of round one, he’s right.
Marshall’s ability to stretch the field and make plays in the red zone make him an excellent fit opposite Hollywood Brown in this offense.
28) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (from Saints): Liam Eichenberg, OL Notre Dame- With the offensive line going quickly, and the Bengals taking a pass catcher at five, the stars are aligned for Cincinnati to get aggressive and move back into round one for a player like Eichenberg. Many think he has the versatility to play guard or tackle, which is perfect for Cincinnati because they need both.
New Orleans trades out because they are in a weird spot of needing two positions that are sliding; wide receiver and cornerback. That allows them to gain assets while still acquiring a day one starter at the top of round two.
29) Green Bay Packers: Elijah Moore, WR Ole Miss- Moore is not my top gadget receiver available, but he seems to be the NFL consensus. Moore has elite speed and great footwork in shorter route combinations. He’s a perfect compliment to Davante Adams.
30) *TRADE* Indianapolis Colts (from Bills): Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami- Rousseau has unlimited potential because of his size and length. He gets home by successfully running the arch, as well as by bull rushing opposing tackles. Even though I feel this is an overdraft because he does not have the athleticism many thought he did, Rousseau should confidently land in the top 40 picks of the draft.
31) Baltimore Ravens (from Chiefs): Joe Tryon, EDGE Washington- Tryon is a late riser on the media mock draft boards. He’s a three down player that has elite athleticism off the edge. It helps him set that edge in the running game, and he can dip and bend past offensive tackles as a pass rusher. Tryon is a terrific chess piece for the Ravens moving forward.
32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Landon Dickerson, IOL Alabama- The eighth and final offensive linemen off the board in round one is Dickerson. Tampa Bay does not have a lot of needs, which allows them to select a player of need for the future. Dickerson can play anywhere along the offensive front, and he’s extremely intelligent. This is a perfect match to finish day one.
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) The Chicago Bears trade the #20, #52, a 2022 1st round pick, a 2022 3rd round pick, and a 2023 2nd round pick to the Atlanta Falcons for the fourth overall selection.
2) The New England Patriots trade the #15, #120, a 2022 2nd round pick and Stephon Gilmore to the Detroit Lions for the #7 and a 2022 4th round pick.
3) The Buffalo Bills trade the #30, #93 and a 2022 3rd round pick to the Indianapolis Colts for the #21 and #127.
4) The Cincinnati Bengals trade the #38, #69 and #190 to the New Orleans Saints for the #28 and #98.
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