Jordan Katz’s Prediction Style NFL Mock Draft 3.0: Post Free Agency
After a hiatus due to NFL Free Agency, Mock Draft SZN is back in full swing! There has been plenty of movement among big boards in the media, as well as plenty of changes to team needs based on free agent acquisitions. That means it is time for a brand new installment of my prediction style mock draft!
For those reading for the first time, the goal of this mock draft is to correctly pick each and every selection, trades included. When reading a mock draft, a lot of times the reader is unclear on whether the writer is going based on their evaluations, or based on what he or she thinks will happen. This is why I have two different styles of mock drafts; a personal one and a prediction one.
In this mock, none of my feelings towards players, or team needs, are taken into account. This is strictly what I think each team will do during the first two rounds, assuming the draft is tomorrow. That means every trade is a prediction based on what I have heard. Every player that rises or falls is a prediction based on what I have read.
One final piece of housekeeping before getting started. There is no Deshaun Watson trade in this mock draft. While it still could happen, I refuse to put Watson into the fold until the legal matter is resolved.
With that being said, let’s mock.
ROUND ONE
1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson- Eat, sleep, Lawrence, repeat.
2) New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB BYU- Based on the action that went down on Friday, the Jets seem to be locked in on Zach Wilson at two. The 49ers called every team in the top five to move up, except for the Jaguars and Jets. This would indicate that the Niners already knew who the Jets were taking. On top of that, the Eagles called the Dolphins about moving up to three, but would only do it if Zach Wilson was on the board.
Long story short, Zach Wilson is the pick at two. The draft starts at three.
3) San Francisco 49ers (from Dolphins via Texans): Mac Jones, QB Alabama- The Niners made the move up to three, which many will connect to their desire for Justin Fields. However, they made this move before Justin Fields had his pro day. This would indicate that his pro day will not factor into their decision.
Based on that, the Niners pick will likely be one of Trey Lance or Mac Jones. If John Lynch is being truthful about Jimmy Garoppolo, and Garoppolo is truly part of their 2021 plans, the pick will be Lance. Lance is just 20 years old, he has a bazooka for an arm, and with just one season of college play under his belt, he could benefit from sitting a year.
If Lynch is blowing smoke and Garoppolo is up for grabs, the pick will be Mac Jones. Jones is deemed more ready to play in NFL circles (for some reason). Plus, his ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly will be attractive to a Kyle Shanahan system.
This pick is a true 50-50 right now. For now, the pick is Jones because of some dots that a fellow draft connoisseur connected for me. However, this pick could easily change in the coming weeks.
4) Atlanta Falcons: Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama- With the back injury to Caleb Farley, Surtain is now the top cornerback on the board in 2021. Even though many like the depth in this group, Surtain is significantly above the other prospects. This could help Surtain go a little higher than most people think.
Atlanta lacks NFL starters in their secondary. Therefore, even though it is a slight reach, Surtain goes top five because of his ability in tight man coverage, as well as his footwork when mirroring receivers.
5) Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon- Despite the fact that Sewell’s buzz has cooled significantly, he’s still the top offensive linemen on the board. He’s also still worthy of a top five selection. Cincinnati can easily slide Jonah Williams to guard, and begin to build an actual offensive line to protect the franchise; Joe Burrow.
6) Miami Dolphins (from Eagles): Kyle Pitts, TE Florida– Even though Mike Gesicki flashed last season, there is a big difference between him and Pitts. Pitts is an elite athlete with incredible footwork throughout his route combinations. He high points the ball well, and he wins from all over the field. Pitts is the chess piece that the Dolphins offense is missing.
7) Detroit Lions: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU- Detroit has nothing at the receiver position at the moment, and they are in a perfect position to take one of the top guys on the board. Not a lot of analysis needed here.
8) Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State- As mentioned before, a Deshaun Watson trade will not be featured in this mock draft until his lawsuits play out. Therefore, Carolina selects a quarterback at eight to start right away.
Lance does a lot of things that will work in Joe Brady’s offense. He creates with his legs, he’s accurate when his technique is sound in his lower body, and he might have the biggest arm in the entire class. Joe Brady should be able to mold him into a future star.
9) *TRADE* Tennessee Titans (from Broncos): DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama- The Titans were gutted in their receiving core this free agency. They lost Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith to big pay days. Seeing as how Tennessee is still in win now mode, they may look to fly up the draft board for one of the top pass catchers.
With Smith a threat to go in this range, Tennessee gives Denver a haul to land a playmaker that compliments AJ Brown extremely well.
10) Dallas Cowboys: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina- Horn had an excellent pro day where he displayed all kinds of athleticism to compliment his elite ability in press coverage. With the most recent injury to Caleb Farley, Horn is likely to be the second cornerback off the board.
Dallas desperately needs secondary help, making Horn a likely selection at 10 if Surtain is off the board.
11) New York Giants: Jayson Oweh, EDGE Penn State- Oweh put on a ridiculous showing at Penn State’s pro day. He tested off the charts athletically, with an astounding 11’2’’ broad jump. He also posted ridiculous numbers in the 40 yard dash, three cone shuttle and short shuttle. In a year where the top edge player is unclear, it is a performance like this that might separate Oweh from the pack.
Teams always believe they can coach up elite athleticism into a true talent, and a lot of times, they are right. Ziggy Ansah, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Danielle Hunter are just a few examples of raw edge players with freakish athleticism to turn into quality NFL pass rushers. Oweh could be next on that list.
12) Philadelphia Eagles (from Dolphins via 49ers): Micah Parsons, OLB/ILB Penn State- Parsons is going to be a top 15 pick if he handles the interview process well. On the field, he’s an elite athlete with the ability to shoot gaps in the run game and generate pressure off the edge in the passing game. He’s an excellent fit on the strong side of any defense, which just so happens to be a position of need for the Eagles.
13) Los Angeles Chargers: Rashawn Slater, OL Northwestern- The Chargers added Corey Linsley this offseason, but they still need help along their offensive line. Slater has the smarts and athleticism to swiftly transition to guard at the next level. His prospects as a tackle are probably gone because of his measurements at his pro day. However, that does not mean he cannot make a “Zack Martin like,” transition to guard at the next level. Slater is an impact player from day one in Los Angeles.
14) Minnesota Vikings: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech- Minnesota’s offensive line is a mess. They need starters all across the line. Darrisaw is incredibly strong, he’s physical at the point of attack, and his ability to gain leverage in the jump set will allow him to transition to right tackle at the next level. This is an excellent fit.
15) New England Patriots: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State- These are the two scenarios for the Patriots next month. The first scenario is exactly what played out in this mock; a quarterback slides down to 15, and the Patriots reap the rewards (depending on your point of view).
A different scenario is the Patriots trading out of this pick. Bill Belichick spent a lot in free agency, which frees him up to trade out of 15 and acquire more assets in an attempt to build out this roster.
To me, these are the only two scenarios for New England next month. I do not see them moving up for a quarterback, and I do not see them staying at 15 if the quarterbacks are off the board.
16) *TRADE* Green Bay Packers (from Cardinals): Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama- At some point, Green Bay has to follow through on getting assets for Aaron Rodgers, right? With Waddle falling a bit because of the depth at receiver, Green Bay moves up to land a true number two receiver opposite Davante Adams.
17) Las Vegas Raiders: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL USC- Vegas has to overhaul their offensive line in this draft, and it starts with their pick at 17. They are in an excellent spot to take one of Slater or Vera-Tucker, and stick them at guard from day one. With Slater off the board, Vera-Tucker is the easy selection.
18) Miami Dolphins: Trevon Moehrig, FS TCU- Bobby McCain has played solid, but he’s likely a cap cut in the coming year or so. Moehrig can play single high and cover two looks from day one. He also flies to the ball carrier and is a very willing tackler.
19) Washington Football Team: Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas- Cosmi’s athleticism will land him higher on draft day than many experts are currently predicting. Washington has an offensive line that has improved over the years, but they are still searching for Trent Williams’ replacement. Cosmi’s ability to prevent edge rushers from successfully running the arch will have an impact right away in Washington.
20) Chicago Bears: Greg Newsome II, CB TCU- The Bears secondary is in shambles after the departure of Kyle Fuller. Cornerback has to be a priority early in this draft.
Many will have this as Caleb Farley, but I think his back injury, on top of an injury history at Virginia Tech, will force him to fall. Therefore, the Bears select Newsome, who has the length and athleticism to play in multiple coverages at the next level.
21) *TRADE* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Colts): Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami- Much like the Giants pick of Jayson Oweh, Rousseau’s athleticism will have teams gushing over him. The Bucs do not need him to make a three down impact right away, which means they can bet on coaching him up and turning him into a star. With Tampa Bay needing very little, they get aggressive for an impact player down the road.
22) *TRADE* Denver Broncos (from Titans): Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan- While I would stay at nine if I ran the show in Denver, the Broncos are surrounded by trade buzz. They seem committed to trying to gain extra assets in this draft. As for why that is, you’ll find out at their second round selection.
Mayfield is a little raw, but he has the length, athleticism, and power to succeed as a right tackle in the NFL.
23) New York Jets (via Seahawks): Creed Humphrey, IOL Oklahoma- The NFL seems to be catching up to my evaluation of Humphrey. He can play guard or center, he’s intelligent, and he gains leverage easily because of terrific grip strength. I doubt he makes it out of round one next month.
24) Pittsburgh Steelers: Landon Dickerson, IOL Alabama- Another guy who likely lands in round one is Landon Dickerson. Despite the ACL injury late in the college football season, Dickerson’s versatility and intelligence have him highly coveted by teams in this draft. He played all five spots along the offensive line during his time at Alabama. That versatility is extra important to Pittsburgh, a team that needs multiple starters along the offensive front.
25) Jacksonville Jaguars (via Rams): Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan- Paye’s ability to generate pressure from a three technique and a five technique make him a perfect fit for a team revamping their defense. Josh Allen is a beast, but they need an edge rusher to compliment him. K’Lavon Chaisson really struggled adjusting to the NFL, so it would not be a shock to see the Jaguars take a pass rusher again in round one.
26) Cleveland Browns: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia- Despite the addition of Takk McKinnley, the Browns still need a compliment to Myles Garrett. Ojulari’s dip and bend ability would help free up Garrett. It would also create a lethal pass rush in Cleveland.
27) Baltimore Ravens: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame- The Ravens specialize in scooping up talented players that the league passes on. We have another example of that here with Owusu-Koramoah.
Owusu-Koramoah can step in and be the Ravens weakside linebacker from day one. He excels in coverage, he’s a sound tackler, and he’s a leader. Owusu-Koramoah is a perfect fit in the Ravens’ defense.
28) New Orleans Saints Kadarius Toney, WR Florida– As I have stated on a number of occasions during this “MockDraftSZN,” the Saints can no longer survive on a receiving core of Michael Thomas and nothing. Toney’s ability to win at the line of scrimmage, as well as at the top of the stem, make him an excellent fit in the Sean Payton offense.
29) *TRADE* Arizona Cardinals (from Packers): Christian Barmore, IDL Alabama- If Barmore is going in the back end of round one, this is how it happens. Some team (in this case Arizona) trades backward, acquires assets, and selects him because it’s one of their premiere positions of need. I’m not sure anyone on the interior of the defensive line should go in round one this year, but it doesn’t matter what I think.
30) Buffalo Bills: Eric Stokes, CB Georgia- This was going to be Ifeatu Melifonwu, but I think Stokes is more of a scheme fit for Sean McDermott. He does not look at the long and lengthy corners as much as I thought he did. Stokes has elite athleticism, which seems to be what McDermott values more. If he can coach up Stokes to use his hands less in man coverage, Stokes could be a legitimate number two cornerback at the next level.
31) Kansas City Chiefs: Dillon Radunz, OT North Dakota State- Unless you chose to not watch the Super Bowl, you are well aware of what the Chiefs’ top need is in this draft. Radunz is able to re-anchor well, and his hips are extremely fluid. Radunz is an easy starter at either tackle spot in the NFL.
32) *TRADE* Indianapolis Colts (from Buccaneers): Tevin Jenkins, OT Oklahoma State- The ridiculous offensive line run in round one ends with Jenkins to the Colts. General Manager Chris Ballard will look to recoup some of the assets he lost in the Carson Wentz deal by moving backwards in round one. The goal is to still land a left tackle after having done so. Tevin Jenkins is better served on the right side in the NFL because of his power, but he does have experience at a number of spots on the offensive line, which shows NFL level intelligence.
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) The Tennessee Titans trade the #22, #53, #126 and a 2022 2nd round pick to the Denver Broncos for the #9th overall selection and a 2022 4th round pick.
2) The Green Bay Packers trade the #29, #62, #135 and a 2022 4th round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for the #16 and a 2022 5th round pick.
3) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade the #32 and #64 to the Indianapolis Colts for the #21 and #127.
ROUND TWO
33) Jacksonville Jaguars: Pat Freiermuth, TE Penn State- Rookie quarterbacks need tight ends to be successful, and Jacksonville currently has none.
34) New York Jets: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB Syracuse- This will draw some ire with Najee Harris on the board, but Melifonwu is a bigger need. He also fits the system for Robert Saleh’s defense.
35) Atlanta Falcons: Najee Harris, RB Alabama- The Jets passing on Harris is Atlanta’s gain. If the Falcons are committed to being successful in 2021, they will have to get more production out of the running back position.
36) Miami Dolphins (via Texans): Javonte Williams, RB North Carolina- Speaking of getting more production out of the running back position, Miami is going to need a true feature back to take pressure off of Tua Tagovailoa next year. Williams has had a meteoric rise during the draft process because of how physical he is as a runner.
37) Philadelphia Eagles: Jevon Holland, FS Oregon- The safety position is extremely weak this year, which means Philly will have to select one slightly higher than they want to in order to ensure a starter. Holland’s ability as a single high safety, combined with his skills in the slot, should make him a quality starter in the NFL.
38) Cincinnati Bengals: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE Miami- Phillps has no reason falling into round two, but his medical history could land him there. If that happens, some team is going to steal the true top edge rusher in this draft.
39) Carolina Panthers: Levi Onwuzurike, IDL Washington- A perfect fit alongside a space eater like Derrick Brown. Onwuzurike generates a ton of pressure from his three tech position because of a lethal first step.
40) Denver Broncos: Jabril Cox, LB LSU- Cox can be a three down linebacker at the next level because he has solid instincts in zone coverage along with tremendous athleticism. He’d be a nice fit in the middle of Denver’s defense.
41) Detroit Lions: Liam Eichenberg, OT Notre Dame- Determining what Detroit is going to do after round one is like throwing darts at a dartboard with a blindfold on. However, an educated guess would be offensive line help.
42) New York Giants: Baron Browning, LB Ohio State- Browning is a late riser during this draft process. His game is very reminiscent of Micah Parsons. Having said that, consistency has been his issue, which is why he should be a day two pick.
43) San Francisco 49ers: Brady Christensen, IOL BYU- Christensen had an exquisite pro day, showing off elite athleticism for his size. He should make the transition to guard very easily.
44) Dallas Cowboys: Zaven Collins, EDGE/OLB Tulsa- Collins can get home off the edge in a number of ways, but he also shoots gaps in the run game very well. The Cowboys scoop up a player that can easily go in the backend of round one.
45) *TRADE* Kansas City Chiefs (from Jaguars via Vikings): Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota– Don’t sleep on the Chiefs getting aggressive for a pass catcher in this draft. Mecole Hardman has not developed like they thought he would, and the Chiefs need someone to take pressure off of Tyreek Hill on the outside.
46) New England Patriots: Aaron Robinson, CB UCF- I have forever given up on trying to figure out what Bill Belichick will do during the second day of the NFL Draft. One sneaky need for the Patriots is the nickel corner. Robinson is the best one of those available.
47) Los Angeles Chargers: Jamin Davis, LB Kentucky- For some reason Davis has some round one buzz, so he goes to the Chargers to be a three down linebacker from day one.
48) Las Vegas Raiders: Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama- Back to back offensive lineman for the Raiders because, well, you know…
49) Arizona Cardinals: Travis Etienne, RB Clemson- If the Cardinals are going to take a running back, it has to be the perfect storm because Kliff Kingsbury believes in the “running back by committee,” mantra. That perfect storm is Etienne falling to them in round two.
50) Miami Dolphins: Wyatt Davis, IOL Ohio State- Even though Ereck Flowers flashed at guard last year, he’s still a weak link. Davis is a “plug and play,” guard from day one because of his grip strength and power.
51) Washington Football Team: Pete Werner, LB Ohio State- The run of off ball linebackers continues with Werner to Washington. Jon Bostic is a weak link in an otherwise extremely talented defense. Werner replaces him immediately.
52) Chicago Bears: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU- Even after Allen Robinson signed the franchise tag, the Bears still need help in their receiving core. Marshall can take the top off of the defense and will serve as an excellent compliment to Robinson.
53) *TRADE* New York Jets (from Broncos via Titans): Rondale Moore, WR Purdue- Jets fans, the Sam Darnold trade has arrived! Denver is one of the teams now being linked to Darnold. If the Broncos do trade down and gain extra assets, they can use some of those assets to acquire Darnold.
Jamison Crowder really isn’t a great fit in Mike Lafluer’s offense. Rondale Moore has elite athleticism and makes plays with the ball in his hands. He’s a better fit in the slot during the short term, as well as the long term.
54) Indianapolis Colts: Richie Grant, FS UCF- Grant is one of the few true single high safeties in this draft. Having lost Malik Hooker, the Colts need to find his replacement in this draft.
55) Pittsburgh Steelers: Jay Tufele, IDL USC- It’s a bit high for a true nose tackle, but Tufele is an excellent space eater. He’s the one technique defensive tackle that the Steelers defense needs.
56) Seattle Seahawks: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech- Farley is going to fall further than the experts think because of this back injury. We saw injuries force Bryce Hall to fall last year. Even though he’s skilled, his medical history has too many red flags.
However, if there is a team to take a chance on him in round two (and I’m not sure there will be), it’s the Seattle Seahawks. Farley fits their scheme, and the Seahawks have never been shy from taking players with question marks.
57) Los Angeles Rams: Asante Samuel Jr., CB Florida State- The Rams defense is a shell of what it was a year ago. I would be shocked if their first selection in this draft is not on that side of the ball.
58) Baltimore Ravens: Josh Myers, IOL Ohio State- Myers had a lot of success during his final year at Ohio State. He showed the ability to pull in the running game, and the intelligence to spot blitzers in pass protection. It’s debatable whether Baltimore has a starting center on the roster, which might make Myers a possibility in round two.
59) Cleveland Browns: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR USC- Cleveland has suffered a lot of injuries to their receiving core in recent memory. St. Brown’s versatility to win from the boundary and the slot as a route runner make him an excellent fit for Cleveland.
60) New Orleans Saints: Trill Williams, CB Syracuse- New Orleans doubles up on skill positions; this time on the defensive end. Williams has excellent length and good ability in off coverage.
61) Buffalo Bills: Joseph Ossai, EDGE Texas- Ossai had an excellent pro day, which should secure his place as a day two selection. The Bills need some situational pass rushers to get to the next level, which is why Ossai is an excellent fit.
62) *TRADE* Arizona Cardinals (from Packers): Paulson Adebo, CB Stanford- Adebo is still learning the cornerback position. However, his natural hands and ability in off coverage have many thinking he can be a quality number two cornerback down the line.
63) *TRADE* Jacksonville Jaguars (from Chiefs): Hamsah Nasirildeen, FS/SS Florida State- This is a bit of a reach, but Nasirildeen fills a real need in the back end of the Jaguars’ defense. Plus, safeties left the board a little quickly in this mock because the position isn’t very deep.
64) *TRADE* Indianapolis Colts (from Buccaneers): TuTu Atwell, WR Louisville- Atwell’s ability as a burner will allow him to be selected higher than he should. Even though the Colts brought back T.Y. Hilton, it was only for a year. Atwell can play the slot in year one, and expand into Hilton’s role moving forward.
TRADES IN ROUND TWO
1) The Kansas City Chiefs trade the #63, #136 and a 2022 2nd round pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars for the #45 and #249.
2) The New York Jets trade Sam Darnold and a 2022 4th round pick to the Denver Broncos for the #53 overall selection.
ROUND THREE
65) Jacksonville Jaguars: Spencer Brown, OT Northern Iowa
66) New York Jets: Joe Tryon, EDGE Washington
67) Houston Texans: Dyami Brown, WR North Carolina
68) Atlanta Falcons: Ronnie Perkins, EDGE Oklahoma
69) Cincinnati Bengals: Brevin Jordan, TE Miami
70) Philadelphia Eagles: Nico Collins, WR Michigan
71) Denver Broncos: Daviyon Nixon, IDL Iowa
72) Detroit Lions: Israel Mukuamu, CB South Carolina
73) Carolina Panthers: Elijah Molden, CB Washington
74) Washington Football Team (from 49ers): Quinn Meinerz, IOL Wisconsin-Whitewater
75) Dallas Cowboys: James Hudson, OL Cincinnati
76) New York Giants: Quincy Roche, EDGE Miami
77) Los Angeles Chargers: Kelvin Joseph, CB Kentucky
78) Minnesota Vikings: Trey Smith, IOL Tennessee
79) Las Vegas Raiders (from Cardinals): Nick Bolton, LB Missouri
80) Las Vegas Raiders: Andre Cisco, FS Syracuse
81) Miami Dolphins: Hamilcar Rashed Jr., EDGE Oregon State
82) Washington Football Team: Elijah Moore, WR Ole Miss
83) Chicago Bears: Jackson Carman, OT Clemson
84) Philadelphia Eagles (from Colts): D’Wayne Eskridge, WR Western Michigan
85) Tennessee Titans: Tyler Shelvin, NT LSU
86) New York Jets (from Seahawks): Michael Carter, RB North Carolina
87) Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenneth Gainwell, RB Memphis
88) Los Angeles Rams: Dayo Odeyingbo, EDGE Vanderbilt
89) Cleveland Browns: Dylan Moses, LB Alabama
90) Minnesota Vikings (from Ravens): Talanoa Hufanga, FS/SS USC
91) Cleveland Browns (from Saints): Tommy Togiai, IDL Ohio State
92) Green Bay Packers: Ben Cleveland, IOL Georgia
93) Buffalo Bills: Tylan Wallace, WR Oklahoma State
94) Kansas City Chiefs: Cameron McGrone, LB Michigan
95) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Milton Williams, IDL Louisiana Tech
96) New England Patriots: Chazz Surratt, LB North Carolina
97) Los Angeles Chargers: Amari Rodgers, WR Clemson
98) New Orleans Saints: Patrick Jones II, EDGE Pittsburgh
99) Dallas Cowboys: Tommy Tremble, TE Notre Dame
100) Tennessee Titans: Ar’Darius Washington, CB/FS TCU
101) Detroit Lions (from Rams): Carlos Basham Jr., EDGE Wake Forest
102) San Francisco 49ers: Benjamin St-Juste, CB Minnesota
103) Los Angeles Rams: Robert Hainsey, OL Notre Dame
104) Baltimore Ravens: Payton Turner, EDGE Houston
105) New Orleans Saints: Marvin Wilson, IDL Florida State
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