Jordan Katz’s “What I Would Do” 2021 NFL Mock Draft: 3.0
All right folks, this is a monster two round mock draft. There are a ton of rumors surrounding the quarterbacks in the NFL. Who is going to land Deshaun Watson? Will the Jets trade Sam Darnold? Will someone take a chance on Jimmy Garoppolo or Mitchell Trubisky? Lastly, how will all of the quarterback moves determine where the quarterback prospects are selected?
In this mock draft, I made the call on what makes the most sense for every team, based on the rumors that are circulating. I tried to generate trade scenarios for the star quarterbacks that would benefit both teams, not just one or the other. If I felt there was a move made in free agency at the quarterback position, I made an “editor’s note,” at the team’s first round selection. In short, I tried to determine the best fit for every team at the quarterback position, and then created a personal style mock draft based off of that.
Keeping in tune with the strategy on the quarterback movement, trades in this mock also had to benefit both teams. There were plenty of times a team was willing to trade out, but did not have a “dance partner.” By taking control of all 32 teams, I did not execute any draft trade that I felt was too one sided.
Buckle up folks, this mock draft is a wild one.
ROUND ONE
1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson- There is no analysis needed here.
2) New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB BYU- The Jets are in a perfect position to trade for Deshaun Watson. They will move Sam Darnold in the coming weeks, adding more ammunition for a potential deal.
However, recent reports from Houston indicate they want multiple selections, as well as two young players that can be building blocks. The only player the Jets have to offer is Quinnen Williams, who is likely untouchable.
In the end, the Miami Dolphins stand the best chance to land Deshaun Watson. They are in a better position to win, they have the cap space to also bring in Allen Robinson, and they have the young assets the Texans desire.
The Dolphins get Watson, the Jets get Zach Wilson, who has potential to thrive in Mike Lafluer’s offensive system
3) *TRADE* Houston Texans (from Dolphins via Texans): Penei Sewell, OT Oregon- If the Dolphins are the team that lands Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa would most likely go back in the deal. That takes the Texans out of the quarterback conversation, and puts them as the favorite to select Penei Sewell in the top three.
While Sewell has all pro ability at left tackle, he has the athleticism and intelligence to play either tackle spot. Houston will have their quarterback of the future and bookend tackles while simultaneously getting rid of a player who no longer wants to play for them.
4) Atlanta Falcons: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State- Both Trey Lance and Justin Fields would benefit from sitting a year and learning the finer points of quarterback play. They both have mechanical issues, and they both struggle with pressure. Of the two, Lance has the most upside. He has a big arm, his internal clock in the pocket is significantly better, and he’s just 20 years old. Atlanta selects Lance as Matt Ryan’s heir.
5) Cincinnati Bengals: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida- The Bengals need pass catchers, regardless of their position. The best pass catcher in this draft, regardless of position, is Kyle Pitts. He’s an elite athlete who possesses phenomenal technique in his routes. Pitts is terrific in 50/50 situations, and has the versatility to win from anywhere on the field. Joe Burrow to Kyle Pitts is going to be Cincinnati’s recipe for success for a decade.
6) Philadelphia Eagles: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU- Ja’Marr Chase makes the most sense for the Eagles because of his “floor,” at the next level. He’s polished as a route runner, his route tree is very advanced, and he can win down the field. Chase may not have the “ceiling,” of the other two top wide receivers in this draft, but his “floor,” is significantly higher. Philadelphia selects him to be their top target in 2021.
Editor’s Note: I don’t love the idea of Justin Fields starting right away for an offense that is going to go through some changes. That is why I kept Jalen Hurts as the starter for the Eagles in 2021, and gave him a true number one receiver.
7) Detroit Lions: Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama- Waddle has the explosiveness and athleticism to dominate down the field, as well as with the ball in his hands. His upside is tremendous because he’s a more polished version of Henry Ruggs, but there might be some growing pains during his rookie year. Waddle needs to vary his releases, and he has some double catches on tape. With Detroit entering an organizational rebuild, Waddle will have time to grow into his full potential.
Editor’s Note: The Lions got Jared Goff so they would not have to overpay in draft capital for a quarterback in this draft. If they truly are entering a rebuild, I would start Goff until a roster is built. Inserting the franchise quarterback last is always the best course of action.
8) Carolina Panthers: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State- With the Panthers still committed to Teddy Bridgewater financially for another season, they are in a perfect position to groom their rookie quarterback without the organizational pressure of starting him right away. That makes them an ideal landing spot for Justin Fields. Fields struggles with a collapsing pocket. His mechanics go awry and his internal clock is nonexistent. Watching a veteran quarterback deal with the speed of the NFL game would help Fields immensely in his transition to the next level.
Editor’s Note: Despite selecting Justin Fields, Teddy Bridgewater will start in 2021.
9) Denver Broncos: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame- Denver’s defense needs a captain at the second level. Owusu-Koramoah is a better fit for this team than Micah Parsons because of the talent they have off the edge. Parsons’ impact in the passing game is as a pass rusher. Owusu-Koramoah is a terrific player in coverage, which fits Denver’s needs better.
Editor’s Note: Denver will mix it up with a lot of quarterbacks in this free agency class. However, unless they draft one, I think Drew Lock is the starter in 2021.
10) Dallas Cowboys: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina- Horn is the top cornerback among the big three because of his ability in press coverage, as well as his ball skills. He excels in cover one and cover three. The Cowboys really missed Byron Jones in the backend of their defense last year. They should be a lock for a cornerback at 10.
11) New York Giants: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama- The Heisman Trophy winner might slide farther down the draft board than people realize. There are going to be legitimate concerns about his size at the next level. Is Smith too slight to adjust to tighter coverage? Can he win 50/50 balls in the NFL?
If he does drop, the Giants are as far as his slide goes. They desperately need a true number one target. Despite the concerns about Smith’s frame, he’s still a top end prospect that can be a number one receiver at the next level.
12) San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama- San Francisco’s secondary is getting gutted this offseason. Assuming they hold on to this 12th selection, which is a lofty assumption based on the rumors surrounding them and the quarterback position, Patrick Surtain is the most ideal fit for them. His “floor,” is the highest of the big three corners, and he has the most versatility schematically.
Editor’s Note: I think the starting quarterback of the Niners in 2021 will be Jimmy Garoppolo, despite all the rumors surrounding that position.
13) Los Angeles Chargers: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL USC- I was late to finishing my evaluation on Vera-Tucker, which is why he’s a big riser in this mock draft. Vera-Tucker is terrific in the passing game. His footwork is pristine in the vertical set, and his hips are extremely fluid. Vera-Tucker has the ability to play tackle or guard at the next level. The Chargers have to protect Justin Herbert better in 2021, making Vera-Tucker an ideal selection.
14) Minnesota Vikings: Rashawn Slater, OL Northwestern- Much like Vera-Tucker, Slater has the ability to shine at guard or tackle at the next level. Slater finds work at the second level, and he’s quick to get his hands on defenders from the jump set. When you combine this with his athleticism in pass sets, Slater could be a phenomenal guard at the next level. Minnesota needs help along the interior of their offensive line, making this a perfect match, just like the selection above.
15) New England Patriots: Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan- The Patriots will likely try to trade down and acquire more assets, but they were unable to do so here. I think New England is in a “best position available,” situation wherever they wind up picking from. Therefore, they select Paye at 15.
Paye is an impactful edge rusher with versatility to win from a 3-tech and 5-tech alignment; something Bill Belichick admires in his defensive linemen.
Editor’s Note: New England looks for a veteran quarterback to start in 2021, which is why they do not select one at 15. My guess is Ryan Fitzpatrick.
16) Arizona Cardinals: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech- The Cardinals have two gigantic needs in this draft; offensive line and cornerback. Ultimately, Darrisaw makes the most sense at this spot because this team is built on their offense. A top flight cornerback is not going to change their philosophy as a team. A top flight tackle could elevate their offense to new heights.
17) Las Vegas Raiders: Micah Parsons, LB Penn State- Parsons has some character concerns, which could cause him to slide a little farther than people expect. On the field, he’s a tremendous talent. He shoots gaps in the run game, he disengages from blockers, and he can rush the passer. If he’s able to deflect the character concerns during the virtual combine next month, he will rise back up mock draft boards.
Editor’s Note: Despite trying to move on from Derek Carr, this mock presumes that Carr will still be the starting quarterback in 2021.
18) *TRADE* Houston Texans via Miami Dolphins: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE Miami- Phillips has been one of my favorite studies during this draft process. His dip and bend ability for someone of his size (6’5, 258) is off the charts. His move-set as a pass rusher is pretty polished as well. Phillips can cross-chop to set up his ability to run the arch, and he can counterpunch to gain leverage on opposing tackles.
19) Washington Football Team: Kadarius Toney, WR Florida- Toney is the media darling of this year’s draft, and for good reason. His footwork is outstanding throughout his routes, which allows him to separate against all types of coverages. Toney is dynamic with the ball in his hands as well. He has established himself as the “best of the rest,” at the receiver position. Washington scoops him up to play opposite Terry McLaurin.
Editor’s Note: Washington starts Alex Smith or Cam Newton in 2021. Besides Sam Darnold, those are the two quarterbacks that they have been linked to the most.
20) Chicago Bears: Dillon Radunz, OT North Dakota State- Even though the Bears need a quarterback, they also need help at the tackle position. Radunz has the athleticism to succeed at left or right tackle in the NFL. He needs to trust his technique more, but his ability to counterpunch and re-anchor is very strong. If he learns not to lunge for contact in the vertical set, he should be a quality left tackle in the NFL.
Editor’s Note: The Bears will probably select Mac Jones here if they miss out on quarterbacks in free agency. Mac Jones is not high on my personal board, which is why he’s not the choice here. If I ran Chicago, I would enter a rebuild. Offensively, this roster is not built to compete for a championship anytime soon. If the running game and the defense carry Chicago into a playoff spot in 2021, that’s great. If not, trade everything with value, and try again in a few years.
21) Indianapolis Colts: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech- Following the Colts trading for Carson Wentz, they will likely address their left tackle issue in free agency. This puts them in a “best player available,” situation at 21. In this mock draft, that “BPA,” is Caleb Farley by a mile.
Farley’s ability in man coverage makes him worthy of a top 15 selection. His injury concerns had him slide, which could happen on the day of the actual draft as well. Having said that, Indianapolis reaps the benefits and takes a top flight cornerback prospect at 21.
22) Tennessee Titans: Wyatt Davis, IOL Ohio State- Tennessee’s offensive line struggled during the 2020 season, particularly along the interior. This is a unit that likes to run the ball, making Wyatt Davis an ideal fit for them. Davis is a mauler in the run game. He’s physical at the point of attack, and he’s athletic enough to pull and be the lead blocker. For a run heavy team like Tennessee, Davis is very worthy of a first round selection.
23) New York Jets (via Seahawks): Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia- Ojulari is an elite player off the edge. His ability to successfully run the arch is fantastic. Ojulari has phenomenal hip and ankle flexibility, allowing him to excel and dipping and bending past the opposing tackle. The Jets need a true threat off the edge, and Ojulari is just that.
24) *TRADE* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Steelers): Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami- Tampa Bay will remain in “win now,” mode for as long as Tom Brady is under center. Unfortunately, the possibility of Brady playing longer than this current contract could lead to Shaq Barrett walking in free agency. If I were running the show, I would let Barrett secure the bag, while using assets to trade up for one of the talented edge rushers near the top of this draft.
25) Jacksonville Jaguars (via Rams): Pat Freiermuth, TE Penn State- Jacksonville needs to continue building their offense, even after the selection of Lawrence at the top. Freiermuth is one of two stud tight end prospects in this draft class. His ability to contribute as a blocker, combined with his smarts as a route runner, make him an ideal target for a lot of teams in the back end of round one.
26) Cleveland Browns: Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa- Collins is a perfect fit for the Browns in the back end of round one because he takes care of two issues. The Browns need multidimensional players at the second level of their defense. They also need pass rushers to compliment Myles Garrett, and Collins can generate pressure off the edge.
27) Baltimore Ravens: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU- The Ravens seem committed to expanding their playbook in 2021 and becoming more of a balanced attack. Marshall would help their passing attack, while simultaneously not sacrificing their identity. Marshall wins down the field with his size and long strides, and he’s terrific at securing 50/50 throws. He’s a great fit for the Ravens’ offense.
28) *TRADE* New York Jets (via Saints): Najee Harris, RB Alabama– The Sam Darnold trade has arrived! There are a number of teams that will be bidding on Darnold because of the untapped potential many feel he has. I think the team best built to make a successful quarterback out of Darnold is New Orleans. He’s a perfect fit in Sean Payton’s system, the offensive line is top notch, and Michael Thomas is a true number one receiver.
With this selection, the Jets are able to add a “bell cow,” and a true number one running back. Najee Harris can do it all, and will thrive in Mike Lafluer’s offense because he’s significantly more athletic than scouts give him credit for.
29) Green Bay Packers: Christian Barmore, IDL Alabama- Packers fans are not going to be thrilled that this selection is defense, and not offense. However, the wide receiver class is loaded. The interior defensive line group, which is something Green Bay must also address, is subpar. Barmore is a more valuable selection here because the Packers can get an offensive contributor with talent on day two.
30) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (via Bills): Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas- If the Bengals take a pass catcher with their first round pick, they should try and trade back into round one to solidify their offensive line. Cosmi has the athleticism and footwork to prevent opposing edge players from successfully running the arch. He needs to fill out his frame, but he has the potential to be a starting left tackle at the next level.
31) Kansas City Chiefs: Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan- Well, this is the least surprising move of round one. Kansas City could have selected anything on the offensive line and justified it, but the choice for a tackle is because of Mitchell Schwartz. Schwartz does not have a contract for the upcoming year, and the Chiefs need to start looking at cost efficient ways to build their roster. A young, promising tackle like Mayfield can be molded into a starting tackle on the left or right side.
32) *TRADE* Pittsburgh Steelers (via Buccaneers): Creed Humphrey, IOL Oklahoma- Humphrey is a versatile player that can excel at guard or center because of his intelligence and competitive fire. He’s physical, and he’s able to gain leverage because his punch packs a wallop. Humphrey immediately bolsters the interior of Pittsburgh’s offensive line.
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) Miami Dolphins trade the #3, #18 and #36 overall selections, a 2022 second round pick, QB Tua Tagovailoa and LB Jerome Baker to the Houston Texans for Deshaun Watson.
2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade the #32, #95 and a 2022 3rd Round Selection to the Pittsburgh Steelers for the #24 overall selection.
3) New Orleans Saints trade the 28th overall selection to the New York Jets for Sam Darnold and the 129th overall selection.
4) Cincinnati Bengals trade the #38, #101 and #165 to the Buffalo Bills for the #30 and #198.
ROUND TWO
33) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jevon Holland, FS Oregon- Holland is my top safety because he has the versatility to play man coverage in the slot, as well as the instincts to contribute from the single high position.
34) New York Jets: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB Syracuse- The Jets will look for long, athletic corners with size for Robert Saleh’s cover three defense. That is Melifonwu in a nutshell.
35) Atlanta Falcons: Travis Etienne, RB Clemson- Etienne is perfect for the Falcons offense. He’s a true “home run hitter,” and he can contribute in the passing game.
36) *TRADE* Houston Texans (from Dolphins via Texans): Trevon Moehrig, FS TCU- The Texans select a starting safety with their final pick from the Deshaun Watson haul.
37) Philadelphia Eagles: Dylan Moses, LB Alabama- Moses is one of the smartest players I have ever seen on film. Don’t sleep on him just because he struggled at times during a challenging year due to Covid.
38) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (via Bengals): Eric Stokes, CB Georgia- Stokes is an aggressive cornerback, and you see it with the way he is able to read and react from off coverage. However, Sean McDermott will have to coach him up in man coverage, because he has a tendency to grab.
39) *TRADE* Tennessee Titans (via Panthers): Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota- Tennessee is likely losing Corey Davis this offseason. Bateman is another strong YAC player that can stretch the field and possesses quality hands. He would thrive in Tennessee’s offense.
40) Denver Broncos: Josh Myers, IOL Ohio State- Even in one season of work, it is clear that Lloyd Cushenberry III is not the answer at center. Myers is a smart player who can be a “plug and play,” guy at the center position from day one.
41) Detroit Lions: Levi Onwuzurike, IDL Washington- Onwuzurike is higher on other boards than my own. Having said that, he has the athleticism and “quick twitch,” ability to impact the game as a pass rusher for quite some time.
42) New York Giants: Patrick Jones II, EDGE Pittsburgh- Unlike Onwuzurike, I am higher on Jones than most. He’s not a great athlete, but he has a strong move set, and he understands how to be successful as a pass rusher.
43) San Francisco 49ers: Landon Dickerson, IOL Alabama- The ultimate football guy. Dickerson famously dressed for the national title game, and took a snap late in the game, having torn his ACL a month earlier. On the field, he has experience all along the offensive line and can start wherever and whenever you need him to. Told ya, the ultimate football guy.
44) Dallas Cowboys: Tevin Jenkins, OT Oklahoma State- The success that Tevin Jenkins had during Senior Bowl week should make him a day two lock. Dallas has to address their often injured offensive line if they wish to get back to their winning ways.
45) Jacksonville Jaguars (via Vikings): Greg Newsome II, CB Northwestern- Newsome has good length and the smarts to excel in off coverage. Despite some footwork deficiencies, he’s a quality day two option at cornerback.
46) New England Patriots: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR USC- I don’t trust this current Patriots regime to develop young receivers, but they need pass catchers so desperately.
47) Los Angeles Chargers: Nico Collins, WR Michigan- Collins is a perfect replacement for Mike Williams, who is most likely walking at the end of his contract.
48) *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks (via Raiders): James Hudson, OL Cincinnati- Seattle moves up to take a versatile offensive linemen in an attempt to get Russell Wilson some help up front
49) Arizona Cardinals: Aaron Robinson, CB UCF- Robinson translates as an excellent nickel corner, who has the ability to go outside because of his length, as well as his skills in press coverage.
50) Miami Dolphins: Nick Bolton, LB Missouri- Bolton is a big time athlete with the ability to get home as a pass rusher. He’s a similar player to Micah Parsons, just with a slightly smaller frame.
51) Washington Football Team: Pete Werner, LB Ohio State- Washington needs an anchor in the middle of their linebacking core. Werner has the intelligence, athleticism and competitive fire to be a three down linebacker at the next level.
52) Chicago Bears: Dyami Brown, WR North Carolina- With receivers flying off the board, Chicago takes Dyami Brown to give themselves a true deep threat.
53) *TRADE* Carolina Panthers (via Titans): Paulson Adebo, CB Stanford- Adebo is still learning the cornerback position. However, he looks very strong in off coverage and he has terrific ball skills. Adebo can be “coached up,” and become a solid number two corner.
54) Indianapolis Colts: Joe Tryon, EDGE Washington- The Colts desperately need talent off the edge. Tryon has some good athleticism off the edge, but he will have to polish his move-set to be more than just a sub-package player in the NFL.
55) Pittsburgh Steelers: Javonte Williams, RB North Carolina- Pittsburgh really struggled to run the ball effectively this year, and it made their offense one dimensional. Williams is a powerful runner that attacks defenders and has excellent balance between the tackles. He’s a very nice fit in Pittsburgh.
56) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (via Seahawks): Jay Tufele, IDL USC- Tufele is a quality one-tech that will shine more in his ability to create stats for others, rather than himself. Vegas needs someone like him in the middle of the defense.
57) Los Angeles Rams: Jabril Cox, LB LSU- There are a few three down linebackers projected to go on day two that I really like. Cox has great athleticism and he’s a really good player in coverage.
58) Baltimore Ravens: Jackson Carmen, OL Clemson- Carmen is a brick house that excels in the run game. This is a little early for him to come off the board, but he’s a perfect fit for Baltimore.
59) Cleveland Browns: Daviyon Nixon, IDL Iowa- Both of Cleveland’s starting interior defensive linemen could depart this offseason. Nixon’s athleticism and ability to win reps in the passing game would make him a nice addition to Cleveland’s front.
60) New Orleans Saints: Asante Samuel Jr., CB Florida State- Samuel is an interesting prospect because he flashes elite mirror skills in man coverage, but struggles in his off coverage technique. His best fit is as a nickel corner immediately, which New Orleans will need after they move Chauncey Gardner-Johnson back to safety this offseason.
61) Buffalo Bills: Joseph Ossai, EDGE Texas- Ossai will be a sub-package player the majority of his career because of his size. Nevertheless, Sean McDermott excels at putting defensive players in a position to succeed.
62) Green Bay Packers: Amari Rodgers, WR Clemson- Here is Green Bay’s selection of the pass catcher they desire. Amari Rodgers may not be this high on other scouts’ draft board, but all he does is win routes. He’s smart, his footwork and short area quickness are lethal, and he’s dynamic from the slot position. He would be a great compliment to Davante Adams.
63) Kansas City Chiefs: Tutu Atwell, WR Louisville- Mecole Hardman has struggled as a true number two receiver. Tutu Atwell has the speed and deep threat ability to be dynamic in Kansas City’s offense.
64) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Michael Carter, RB North Carolina- Should the Buccaneers opt to move on from the Fournette/RoJo combination (which would be wise, despite their late season success), Michael Carter’s ability in the passing game would make him a terrific chess piece for Tom Brady next season.
TRADES IN ROUND TWO
1) Tennessee Titans trade the #53 and #85 to the Carolina Panthers for the #39 and #168.
2) Seattle Seahawks trade the #56 and a 2022 3rd round selection to the Las Vegas Raiders for the #48 and a 2022 5th round selection.
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