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Jordan Katz 2021 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: “What I Would Do”

Posted on January 4, 2021 Updated on January 4, 2021

Mock Draft Season is upon us! As of this moment, a little over half the league has their eyes set on the offseason, and subsequently, the NFL Draft. Even though many have published mock drafts already, this is the true start of #MockDraftSZN. 

By now, scouts and draft experts have their opinions of the big name guys in the process. Now it’s true that evaluations on almost all players will continue to change. Many analysts have only begun their process into these draft prospects. However, with the college season just about done, there is enough to start having concrete opinions on players.

For those that are viewing my work for the first time, there are a few things you should know about my mocks. I produce two kinds of mock drafts; a personal and a prediction. The reason for this is simply transparency for the viewer. When you read a person’s mock draft, you might not be aware of what went into their decision. Are they trying to get the selection correct? Do they have information on a player that is going to rise, so they stuck them with a team that fits to get a reaction from readers? Is it their opinion of the player, the scheme fit, or both, that drove the decision towards the selection?

As you can see by the title, this is what I would do if I were in charge of all 32 teams. The selections are based on where I currently have certain players ranked, as well as what I think teams will need to address during this upcoming offseason. Any trades that are made are trades that I believe will benefit both teams. 

With that being said, it is my pleasure to welcome y’all to the REAL official start of DraftSZN. Let’s cook.

ROUND ONE

1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson- About five years ago, I got a phone call from one of my best friends telling me to take a look at this high school Quarterback prospect from Georgia. “He’s a can’t miss prospect,” JP told me. It’s safe to say that one collegiate career later, Lawrence lived up to that billing.

Lawrence has the physical attributes to dominate this league for two decades. His arm talent is off the charts. He possesses ridiculous athleticism for someone who is 6’6. Lawrence can make throws at all three levels of the field, with precision and zip behind the throw. Jacksonville may not have won a lot in recent memory, but this is the kind of player that changes your franchise.

2) New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB BYU- Justin Fields dominated during the College Football Playoff game against Clemson. He showed deep ball accuracy, multiple reads, and elite toughness after taking a shot to the ribs in the first half.

Having said that, my QB2 remains Zach Wilson. Wilson has a big arm, along with zero fear when letting it rip. He throws a very catchable 50/50 ball that’s often in the right spot for his receiver. Wilson can improvise with the best of them, and has tremendous accuracy on the move. 

There are definitely some concerns about his anticipation and willingness to attempt any throw in any window. His footwork could be cleaned up as well. 

Nevertheless, Wilson is the new modern day gunslinger that NFL teams are falling in love with.

3) *TRADE* Detroit Lions (from Dolphins via Texans): Justin Fields, QB Ohio State- When he unlocks his hips in his throw, Justin Fields can sling it with the best of them. He’s a dual threat quarterback with really good arm talent. The concern with Fields is that he loses his technique when facing some pressure. If he’s too stiff in his lower body, he’s often high and wide with throws. This is why he’s still my QB3 despite a phenomenal bowl game.

However, that doesn’t make Fields a bad prospect. His upside is still tremendous, which is why Detroit jumps Atlanta to select him.

4) Atlanta Falcons: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon- While the Falcons have Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary, neither have been overly impressive in recent memory. Penei Sewell is a can’t miss offensive tackle prospect because of his elite footwork and athleticism. His kickslide in the vertical set is so clean and his hips are so fluid. Sewell is the best player in the class not named Lawrence, and the correct selection for Atlanta if the first three picks are quarterbacks.

5) Cincinnati Bengals: Micah Parsons, ILB Penn State- Parsons sat out the 2020 campaign, but his draft status will not be affected in the slightest. A three down linebacker with elite athleticism, Parsons is built for the modern day game. What shocked me the most on tape was how effective he is as a pass rusher. His knowledge for gap assignments really helps him in both the run and pass game. Even though the Bengals miss on their franchise left tackle, they still select one of the best players in this draft.

6) Philadelphia Eagles: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU- Chase is not the top receiver on my board, but he’s the exact kind of player the Eagles need. I think Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith have higher ceilings than Chase. Waddle is a big time burner with elite quickness, and Smith can do it all.

Despite this, Chase is the guy the Eagles receiving core needs because he has the highest floor of the three players. He’s terrific at the catch point and he’s awesome at the line of scrimmage against tight coverage.

7) *TRADE* Miami Dolphins (from Lions): Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama- Should they trade down, pairing one of the Alabama receivers with Tua Tagovailoa is the obvious answer for Miami. The selection of Waddle over Smith has more to do with the makeup of the Dolphins receiving core and offense.

Jaylen Waddle has dynamic playmaking ability from the slot. He stretches the field, he’s elite with the ball in his hands, and his route tree from the slot is diverse. Waddle is the player that the Dolphins need to add to their receiving core this offseason.

8) Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State- Carolina’s quarterback of the future is not Teddy Bridgewater. In fact, he might not be the quarterback of the present in 2021. Reports from Carolina were that former GM Marty Hurney was canned because of his philosophical differences with Head Coach Matt Rhule. I think it’s safe to assume that those differences revolve around the quarterback position.

Lance is smart with the football, he has the ability to beat you with his legs, and he can stretch the defense because he has a cannon for an arm. Plus, he’s only 20 years old. Lance has some big time upside.

9) Denver Broncos: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina- The competition for the top cornerback off the board in April is just as competitive as the race to be the top wide receiver taken. Jaycee Horn, Caleb Farley and Patrick Surtain II, all have similar strengths and skill sets. All three are best in man coverage. They use their length extremely well in different ways.

What separates Horn for me has more to do with the other two players. Farley’s game is the most polished, but he has durability concerns. Surtain is very strong in off-man coverage, but he’s not as strong as the other two in tight man-to-man. 

Horn is physical and he breaks on the ball extremely well. He’s a terrific fit in the Broncos’ defense.

10) Dallas Cowboys: Kwity Paye, DL Michigan- Paye is one of the biggest risers on draft boards from September to now. He has a lethal first step and the ability to win from multiple places along the defensive front. The Cowboys need a pass rusher to compliment Demarcus Lawrence, making Paye the easy selection here. 

11) New York Giants:  Kyle Pitts, TE Florida- Pitts could wind up as my top pass catcher off the board if the fit is right. He’s the best pass catcher in the class and the best tight end prospect I have ever scouted. Pitts can beat corners in tight coverage with elite quickness and a great release. Linebackers can’t stay with him, and defensive backs are not physical enough to guard him. Pitts is going to dominate the NFL for years to come. 

12) *TRADE* Tennessee Titans (from Chargers): DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama- The Chargers are a good “trade back,” candidate in this draft because they need assets to fill out their roster. The Titans chose not to pick up the option on Corey Davis, which means they will either need to tag him, overpay for one year of production, or find his replacement in the draft. Even though the draft is loaded with receiving talent, there is a sizable gap between the big three and the rest of the group. To me, this trade makes a lot of sense both ways.

13) San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech- Back to back cornerbacks here. The Niners are a candidate to trade up for a quarterback in the next few months. However, in this scenario they were unable to do so, which puts cornerback atop their wishlist.

Farley would be the first cornerback off the board if he had a clean bill of health. He’s the best of the big three at mirroring opposing receivers, he’s able to press successfully, and his footwork in his backpedal is strong. If he’s able to stay healthy, he can be a star at the next level.

14) Minnesota Vikings: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech- Darrisaw is similar to Rashawn Slater in the sense that system is key for his success. I think Darrisaw has elite potential at right tackle because of his ability in the run game. He drives opponents to the turf, he’s a beast at the second level, and his first step allows him to gain leverage easily. For a team that runs the ball as much as Minnesota does, Darrisaw is a home run selection.

15) New England Patriots: Rashawn Slater, OL Northwestern- Rashawn Slater is a reincarnation of the “Zack Martin,” dilemma from a few years ago. He could be a really solid tackle at the next level. He’s athletic, his hips are fluid, and he seals defenders really well in the run game.

Or, a team could take his athleticism and stick him at guard. Slater’s strikes do not always land in the vertical set, but he gains leverage really easily in the jump set. This is what Zack Martin was. Slater could be an elite guard at the next level.

16) Arizona Cardinals: Dillon Radunz, OT North Dakota State- This is a little high for Radunz. Nevertheless, Arizona needs athletes up front for their system, and Radunz is a big time athlete. His kickslide is terrific and he packs a better counterpunch than some of the other athletic tackles in this draft. If Radunz has a quality Senior Bowl week, he could solidify himself as a top 40 selection.

17) Las Vegas Raiders: Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama- Vegas has selected a lot of cornerbacks early in drafts recently, but all of them have struggled. The back end of this defense is a disaster. Surtain’s ability to mirror, as well as his quickness when driving on the football, should help him become the number one cornerback that Vegas is missing.

18) Miami Dolphins: Creed Humphrey, IOL Oklahoma- While Wyatt Davis is slightly ahead of Humphrey on my personal board, Humphrey is a better fit for the Dolphins. He’s better in pass protection and has the ability to play center or guard at the next level. With Miami failing to find a trade partner here, they continue to build their offensive line.

19) Washington Football Team: Chris Olave, WR Ohio State- With Washington outside of striking distance to move up for a quarterback, they’ll most likely look to bring in a young quarterback like Sam Darnold or Mitch Trubisky to compete with Alex Smith. Therefore, they move to a different need; getting Terry McLaurin some help.

Olave is a “jack of all trades,” kind of receiver. His route running ability is ridiculous for a collegiate wide receiver. Adding him opposite McLaurin would create a lot of matchup problems for opposing defenses.

20) Chicago Bears: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU- Allen Robinson is gone during this offseason, which means the top need on Chicago’s wish list is a wide receiver. Sure, the quarterback position is also a possibility. However, my guess is either a franchise tag for Mitch Trubisky, or a veteran via free agency or trade.

Marshall is one of the more interesting prospects in the draft because he’s not getting the buzz he deserves. At 6’3, Marshall wins down the field with long strides, a good release off the line, and the ability to haul in the majority of 50/50 balls. Marshall should be a first round guy come April.

21) Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia- Jacksonville needs talent on defense regardless of the position. Ojulari is just that. He’s a bit undersized as a straight edge rusher, but he’s terrific at running the arch. He has a bevy of moves too, which makes him a really interesting prospect.

22) Indianapolis Colts: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami- At 6’5, Rousseau has elite size and athleticism. His technique, however, needs some cleaning up. Rousseau has a lot of upside, but sitting out 2020 puts his draft stock in a precarious situation. Make no mistake, he’s not the only player in this spot.

With so many players sitting out the year, there will be a lot of gambles by GM’s on upside. Rousseau is one of those gambles. If you take him, you need to have a good foundation in place already. A team like the Colts is built to take one of those risks.

23) Cleveland Browns: Dylan Moses, ILB Alabama- The buzz on Moses has cooled, but I’m still a firm believer in what he can be at the next level. He’s so smart and possesses great instincts. Plus, he’s a great athlete, and a three down linebacker at the next level. For me, Moses is still firmly in round one.

24) *TRADE* Los Angeles Chargers (from Titans): Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas- Cosmi struggles with power rushers, but he’s a big time athlete for the tackle position. Whoever, the Chargers next coach is will use some tempo with this loaded offense. The Chargers need a true left tackle, making Cosmi a very good fit.

25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Najee Harris, RB Alabama- The Bucs are still going to be “all-in,” in 2021. With two feature running backs available, and a desperate need for a real running game, the Bucs seem like the obvious team to take Harris or Travis Etienne in round one. 

I have Harris higher on my board because of his ability between the tackles, as well as his balance through contact.

26) Baltimore Ravens: Wyatt Davis, IOL Ohio State- Davis is a mauler up front. He gains leverage with good grip strength, and drives defenders with a powerful lower body. Davis is a perfect fit for a run heavy offense like the Ravens.

27) *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (from Jets via Seahawks): Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB Notre Dame- If General Manager Joe Douglas does not trade out of the number two overall selection, you can bet your bank account that he will try to trade out of the 27th pick for more assets. Owusu-Koramoah has no business still being on the board, and Philly desperately needs a three down player to command the second level of their defense. This was an easy call both ways.

28) Pittsburgh Steelers: Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL USC- Vera-Tucker is an interesting study because he does not do anything well, but also isn’t poor in a specific area. His feet are occasionally heavy, but he’s an effective pass blocker because he plays with good pad level and gains leverage with timely strikes. He’s not a finisher in the run game, but he walls off defenders well. He’s a plug and play left guard, which is exactly what the Steelers need.

29) New Orleans Saints: Kadarius Toney, WR Florida- When Drew Brees hangs it up in a few weeks, Head Coach Sean Payton will have to come to the realization that his receiving core cannot just be Michael Thomas. Toney is a perfect fit in Payton’s offense because of his ability with the ball in his hands.

30) Buffalo Bills: Eric Stokes, CB Georgia- Stokes is often at the line of scrimmage, and very willing to command the opposing team’s top target. He’s best in press-bail, but his footwork is also strong in off-coverage. Head Coach Sean McDermott would love Stokes’ skill set for his defense.

31) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (via Packers): Pat Freiermuth, TE Penn State- “Baby Gronk,” is one of my favorite players in the draft. He’s terrific at the catch point, he’s physical in his route, and he’s an excellent blocker. Cincinnati trades up for a middle of the field threat that can contribute in the red zone.

32) Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Myers, IOL Ohio State- It’s not a sexy pick, but the Chiefs’ offensive line has regressed during the second half of the season. Josh Myers can play center or guard, and his fluidity in his hips, as well as his footwork, make him a really interesting top 40 selection.

TRADES IN ROUND ONE

1) Detroit Lions trade the #7, #39, a 2022 2nd Round Pick and a 2022 3rd Round Pick to the Miami Dolphins for the #3 and a 2022 4th Round Pick.

2) Tennessee Titans trade the #24, #88 and a 2022 1st Round Pick to the Los Angeles Chargers for the #12 Overall Selection.

3) Philadelphia Eagles trade the #38 and #70 to the New York Jets for the #27 and #129.

4) Cincinnati Bengals trade the #37 and #100 to the Green Bay Packers for the #31 Overall Selection