Jordan Katz’s Prediction Style 2021 NFL Mock Draft: 2.0
This is my prediction style mock draft. The goal with these mocks is to give my guesses on what I think all 32 teams would do if the draft was tomorrow. I also have a personal mock draft (https://draftstock.net/2021/01/04/what-would-i-do-2021-nfl-mock-draft-2-0/). In that style, I take control of all 32 teams, and make the selections that I feel fit them best. My evaluation of players and where they fit best can be found there. This mock is strictly attempting to get every selection correctly.
ROUND ONE
1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson- No analysis needed here. Over the next few months there will be debates between Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence from the media to keep things interest. None of it will change the fact that Lawrence will be the first name called on April 29th.
2) New York Jets: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State- The Jets hold the keys to the entire draft. If they choose to stick with Sam Darnold, they can haul a king’s ransom for this pick. If they want a quarterback at two, Miami will be the recipient of a bevy of trade offers.
Right now, my guess is the Jets take Fields because of who they choose to hire as their next Head Coach. Outside of Titans Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith, I think all the other potential candidates would want “their guy,” at quarterback.
3) *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (from Dolphins via Texans): Penei Sewell, OT Oregon- Cincinnati is the most obvious team to aggressively pursue trading up for Penei Sewell. What separates them from other suitors is that the Dolphins could keep a top five selection by trading with the Bengals. Joe Burrow gets his franchise left tackle to protect his blindside.
4) Atlanta Falcons: Zach Wilson, QB BYU- Atlanta’s misfortunes in 2020 have left them in a prime position to select the heir to Matt Ryan’s throne. Zach Wilson is being billed as a carbon copy of Patrick Mahomes because of his play style and ability to improvise. Guess who also sat in their first year to learn the finer points of quarterback play in the NFL…
5) *TRADE* Miami Dolphins (via Bengals): DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama- Unless the Dolphins have Ja’Marr Chase significantly higher on their draft board, it makes sense to get Tua Tagovailoa a target he’s already familiar with. Smith follows up what should be a Heisman trophy winning season with a top five selection.
6) Philadelphia Eagles: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU- Jalen Hurts earned the right to go into 2021 as the Eagles’ starting quarterback. If he’s going to be successful, the Eagles need a true number one receiver. Chase is going to regain the buzz he had preseason during the draft process.
7) Detroit Lions: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State- The Lions seem committed to moving on from Matthew Stafford this offseason, which means they’re in a prime spot to select a quarterback. Lance may be QB4, but he’s still a top 10 lock. At 20 years old, he also might possess the most upside of any quarterback not named Lawrence.
8) *TRADE* Arizona Cardinals (via Panthers): Kyle Pitts, TE Florida- If the Panthers miss on the top quarterbacks, they are a trade down candidate. Talented players are bound to fall as quarterbacks rise. If Arizona gets the opportunity to move up for an offensive chess piece like Kyle Pitts, you better believe that the front office and coaching staff will do everything in their power to make it happen.
9) Denver Broncos: Rashawn Slater, OL Northwestern- In my personal mock, where I take control of all 32 teams (https://draftstock.net/2021/01/04/what-would-i-do-2021-nfl-mock-draft-2-0/), I wrote about Slater’s upside as a guard at the next level. My gut tells me NFL teams will agree, and look at him as a potential all-pro guard. That’s what Denver does here.
10) Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama- Last year, Jerry Jones took the “sexy pick” of CeeDee Lamb, despite having needs in other areas. He selects the sexy pick again here, but this time, it’s at a position of need.
Surtain is not my top cornerback, but I think his ability in multiple schemes will make him the top cornerback off the board in a few months.
11) New York Giants: Micah Parsons, ILB Penn State- Parsons falling all the way to 11?! How could this happen? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. He’s a phenomenal talent, but linebackers don’t possess the value they once had. It’s true that the Giants get a steal here with one of the best players in this draft. However, don’t be shocked if Parsons goes lower than you expect in a few months.
12) San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech- Assuming San Francisco acquires a quarterback before the draft (and I would not be so sure that’s the case), they are an easy candidate to select one of the top corners. Richard Sherman and Jason Verrertt are likely out the door, leaving a gaping hole in the secondary that must be filled.
13) Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech- There are no trade partners for the Chargers here because of two moves inside the top 10. However, Darrisaw solidifying their tackle spot is a fine consolation prize. I would rather see him at right tackle, but many think he’s a quality left tackle at the next level and will become better in the vertical set as he progresses.
14) Minnesota Vikings: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE Miami- Rousseau’s physical gifts have him atop many draft boards despite not playing in 2020. A team like Minnesota could gamble on him at 14 because they’ve had success with raw but talented EDGE rushers in the past under Head Coach Mike Zimmer.
15) New England Patriots: Mac Jones, QB Alabama- Well, Patriots fans won’t like this one. Bill Belichick is going to try to find a young quarterback to groom this offseason. Chances are, it’s Jimmy Garoppolo after San Francisco let’s him go. Having said that, would you be shocked if it’s a quarterback that his best buddy Nick Saban has turned into a Heisman trophy finalist?
16) *TRADE* Carolina Panthers (via Cardinals): Kwity Paye, EDGE/DL Michigan- Carolina is a tough team to predict if they do not select a quarterback. Should they slide down the board to collect assets, BPA (best player available) makes the most sense. Paye lining up opposite of Brian Burns is also a nightmare for opposing defenses.
17) *TRADE* Chicago Bears (via Raiders): Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama- One of the big three wide receivers will slide on draft day, just like CeeDee Lamb did last year. If that player makes it past the Patriots at 15, expect a bidding war to arise from teams farther down the draft board. Chicago pays the highest price and allows Vegas to stay in range for the player they want.
18) Miami Dolphins: Najee Harris, RB Alabama- Selecting running backs in round one has become taboo, but I think Miami will look for a bell cow with their second first round selection. Both Harris and Etienne are beyond elite and well deserving of being selections that “buck the recent trend.”
19) Washington Football Team: Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota- Washington’s playoff appearance will make it challenging for them to select a quarterback of the future in this draft. However, they could easily acquire a younger veteran in the offseason and add a weapon opposite Terry McLaurin with this first round selection.
20) *TRADE* Las Vegas Raiders (via Bears): Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB Notre Dame- If the Raiders had moved down further, they would’ve missed on the three down linebacker they need at the second level of their defense. That’s why they took the Bears’ offer instead of one further down the board with a bigger return according to the trade value chart.
21) Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia- Ojulari is not projected to be a round one selection right now. Nevertheless. following an incredible bowl game, and what should be a strong draft process, he could easily wind up in the top 32 selections. Jacksonville needs to get to the passer better in 2021, and Ojulari can help do that.
22) Indianapolis Colts: Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan- Even though the Colts have a ton of cap space, Anthony Castonzo is likely a cap casualty this offseason. The Colts offensive line was really good in his absence, and he’s a free cut of 16 million dollars off the books.
Mayfield is best at right tackle, but my gut tells me a team will slot him in at left tackle and hope his lower body technique continues to improve.
23) Cleveland Browns: Jay Tufele, IDL USC- The Browns are set to lose Larry Ogunjobi to free agency, and Sheldon Richardson could be a cap casualty as well. Tufele is the top interior linemen in the class because he produces as a 1-tech and a 3-tech.
24) Tennessee Titans: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU- Much like in my personal mock, my rationale for the Titans selecting a wide receiver is simple. Their receiving core after Corey Davis is suspect, and I can’t see them giving Davis a big contract off of one solid season. Marshall steps in and becomes their number two wide out from day one.
25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas- Donovan Smith may have been paid this offseason, but he was dreadful for most of the year. Cosmi’s athleticism and ability to cut off edge rushers from successfully running the arch will be tempting for a team that throws as much as the Bucs do.
26) Baltimore Ravens: Wyatt Davis, IOL Ohio State- Look for Baltimore to try and trade out of round one come April. After the top guys, this draft will have a lot of polarizing opinions because of the oddity that was the collegiate football season.
Should the Ravens be stuck in this spot, addressing the interior of their offensive line makes a lot of sense. Wyatt Davis is the perfect scheme fit because of how physical he is in the run game.
27) New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks: Joseph Ossai, EDGE Texas- Ossai is still learning the finer points of the position, but he’s shown the ability to line up and succeed from the strong and weak sides on the defensive front. The Jets need edge rushers, making Ossai an easy selection here.
28) Pittsburgh Steelers: Kyle Trask, QB Florida- The Steelers will aggressively pursue young reclamation projects at the quarterback position during the offseason. Even though they likely land one, part of doing mock drafts is playing out different scenarios.
Therefore, assuming they strike out before draft day, the Steelers could get aggressive in their pursuit for Mac Jones or Kyle Trask. Both players would benefit from sitting behind Ben Roethlisberger and learning how to go through multiple reads against NFL coverages.
29) New Orleans Saints: Eric Stokes, CB Georgia- Janoris Jenkins has looked solid at times this offseason, but he’s aging and could be a cap cut somewhere in the next two years. Stokes is strong in press-bail, and breaks out of his T-Step with quickness and poise.
30) Buffalo Bills: Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL USC- Buffalo’s interior offensive line play could be bolstered this offseason. Vera-Tucker leads a group of plug and play starters at guard that will come off the board in the 25-50 range of this year’s draft.
31) Green Bay Packers: Kadarius Toney, WR Florida- Aaron Rodgers has done a tremendous job turning Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling into decent players. Despite this, a real threat opposite Davante Adams would take this offense to a different level. Toney’s ability with the ball in his hands would add a different dimension to the Packers’ offense.
32) Kansas City Chiefs: Dylan Moses, ILB Alabama- Defensive Coordinator Steve Spanguolo loves smart players with good instincts because he asks a lot of his defense in terms of schemes. Moses might have lost the buzz he had around him from a few months ago, but he’s an elite football mind at the linebacker position. “Spags,” would love him in the middle of the defense.
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) Cincinnati Bengals trade the #5, #37 and a 2022 3rd round pick to the Miami Dolphins for the #3 and a 2022 5th round pick.
2) Arizona Cardinals trade the #16 and #48 to the Carolina Panthers for the #8 and a 2022 4th round pick.
3) Chicago Bears trade the #20 and #83 to the Las Vegas Raiders for the 17th Overall Selection.
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