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Jordan Katz 2021 Prediction Style NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Midseason

Posted on November 10, 2020 Updated on December 28, 2020

Ladies and Gentlemen… WE ARE BACK! Even though we have just passed the halfway point of the NFL Season, there are multiple teams that are already looking forward to next year’s draft. While it’s still extremely early in the scouting process, there are some known facts about the 2021 draft class already.

First off, this class includes one of the best quarterback prospects to ever exist. Trevor Lawrence has the ability to make all the throws, he understands route timing and where the ball should be, and he also has the mobility inside and outside the pocket to extend plays. Lawrence is a franchise changer, and many teams will be interested in landing the Clemson star at the top of this draft.

Next, there are a number of talented receivers that are projected to enter the league next year. Ja’Marr Chase is the big headliner, but he may not be WR1 when this is all said and done. Despite a broken ankle, Jaylen Waddle projects as an explosive slot receiver with top end speed and quality route running. Rashod Bateman is strong at the catch point, and makes plays with the ball in his hands. In short, this class has it all. From home run hitters down the field like DeVonta Smith and Terrace Marshall Jr., to guys like Rondale Moore and Chris Olave run a clean route tree; it’s a quality class from top to bottom.

There are a few questions that still need to be answered about this draft class. For example, EDGE rusher looks to be a weak position this year. Who’s going to emerge as the second guy behind Gregory Rousseau? Similarly, which offensive tackle will be the second player off the board behind Penei Sewell? Is there enough depth at these positions to find talent later in the draft?

These questions, and plenty of others will be addressed in the coming months. For right now, here’s a look at the projected stars of next year’s NFL Draft.

Unlike my normal mock drafts, there will be no trading in this mock, seeing as how we are still extremely early in the process. This will also be a one round only mock for the same reason. The order is done based on my projections of the rest of the season. Therefore, if your favorite team is picking too high, I apologize in advance.

#MockDraftSZN is back. Let’s cook.

Round One

1) New York Jets: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson- The Jets have become a laughing stock as an organization during these past few months (although some would argue it’s been much longer than that). It has led to speculation that Trevor Lawrence could pull a Peyton Manning and return to school. It has also led to the idea that Lawrence could pull an Eli Manning or John Elway and ask to be traded before the draft. 

Assuming Trevor Lawrence is willing to go to the Jets organization, this is a no brainer. They need a franchise changer, and he is just that. However, don’t be shocked if he opts to avoid this dumpster fire.

2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon- The temptation is going to be there for the Jaguars to replace Gardner Minshew II with one of the top rookie quarterbacks. If I were running the show, I would look to build a roster around Minshew. Minshew has done a nice job with limited weapons and a below average offensive line.

If you’re wondering how good Penei Sewell is as a prospect, Sewell would have been the top offensive linemen selected last year as well. He’s an elite athlete with impeccable footwork and fluid hips. Sewell is the definition of a “can’t miss.”

3) New York Giants: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State- Daniel Jones has shown that he is not the long term answer as a franchise quarterback. He struggles to keep control of the ball, and he does not come off of his first read quick enough. Even though they also need help along the offensive line, a lot of their struggles stem from Jones staying at the bottom of the drop.

The debate between Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence will be one that dominates the draft scene all year. It’s very reminiscent of the Andrew Luck-Robert Griffin III debate from years ago. Fields has improved drastically in his ability to read the defense. When you combine that with his arm talent and mobility, there’s plenty to like here from the Ohio State star.

4) Cincinnati Bengals: Micah Parsons, ILB Penn State- The decision by Parsons to not play in 2020 might have helped his draft stock more than actually playing. Sure, everyone already knows he’s a three down linebacker with big time athleticism. Nevertheless, he wasn’t the top five lock that he appears to be at this moment. Parsons is widely considered as the top defensive player in this draft, and he would be an excellent pick for the Bengals if they wound up in the top five.

5) Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama- The Cowboys chose to not pay Byron Jones last offseason, which has really hurt their defense this year. Surtain possesses the ideal height and length for the position, and mirrors receivers well along the boundary. He’s not an elite cornerback prospect at the moment because he’s a little slow out of his backpedal, which shows up against better route runners on tape. Despite this, he’s still the top corner in the class, and the easy selection for Dallas if they pick in the top 10.

6) Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans: Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama- Miami still needs help revamping their offense, which includes getting more elite weapons for Tua Tagovailoa. The curveball here, is that this selection is not Ja’Marr Chase.

Chase is a big time playmaker with elite ability down the field and at the catch point. He’s a terrific prospect, no question. Having said that, Waddle is a burner with a quality route tree and the ability to score every time he touches the ball.. He’s quick in and out of his cuts, which adds to his ability to take the top off of the opposing defense. In short, he’s a more complete player than Chase, which is why he’s currently my top wide receiver.

7) Washington Football Team: Zach Wilson, QB BYU- Trey Lance is widely regarded as “QB3,” in this draft, but that might be a misinformed opinion at the moment. Lance has a cannon for an arm, as well as dual threat ability, but he’s inaccurate at times because of his mechanics, and struggles to go through his progressions.

Zach Wilson is the exact same player, with a bigger arm, and is improving in the mental aspects of the game. He has no fear in terms of fitting throws into tight windows, and the arm talent to do so at the next level. Don’t be shocked if Wilson leapfrogs Lance as QB3 in this draft.

8) Los Angeles Chargers: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU- Chase had a stellar year at LSU with Joe Burrow in 2019, largely because Burrow gave him chances on 50/50 balls down the field. Chase has terrific body control at the catch point and a quality release at the line of scrimmage. With Mike Williams on his fifth year option next year, and likely to hit free agency following that, Chase could slide into the wide receiver two spot fairly easily.

9) Atlanta Falcons: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State- Lance’s decision to play one game this year against a lesser opponent on minimal practice time is going to hurt his draft stock. Lance’s flaws were on display during the majority of the game. His inaccuracy and failure to go through progressions will now be the topic of conversation, even after he shines during the pre-draft process because of his big arm. Lance should still wind up in the top half of the draft, but if Wilson continues to shine at BYU, he could fall down the board, as I alluded to earlier.

10) Denver Broncos: Dylan Moses, ILB Alabama- Moses checks every box for a modern day linebacker. He has great instincts, he’s an elite athlete, and a quality tackler. Most importantly, much like Parsons, Moses is also a three down linebacker because he shows good instincts in coverage. Parsons is a lock to go in the top 10, but there is no reason Moses can’t join him in that area.

11) Minnesota Vikings: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami- Rousseau has elite size and length for the edge position. When he wins a rep, it’s usually because of his physical traits and athleticism. Minnesota has had success in teaching technique to gifted athletes in the past (Danielle Hunter for example), and they will try to do so again in an attempt to revamp their defensive front.

12) Carolina Panthers: Creed Humphrey, IOL Oklahoma- Humphrey was a projected first round pick if he came out last year, but opted to stay in school. Fortunately for him, the decision should not affect his draft stock that much. He’s athletic, he plays with good balance from top to bottom, and he’s able to gain leverage with power and technique. Humphrey would be a good boost to the interior line of the Panthers.

13) Detroit Lions: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama- For some reason, the rumblings around the Lions are that Kenny Golladay could hit free agency this offseason. Even though the draft is loaded at receiver, and the Lions can replace Golladay on the cheap, the decision is still questionable.

If they ultimately go that route, Smith’s size, speed, and ability to win at the line of scrimmage would be an attractive option for Detroit in the middle of round one.

14) New England Patriots: Trey Smith, IOL Tennessee- If New England wins enough games to wind up in the middle of the pack, they will put themselves out of the quarterback discussion in this draft. The Patriots would then turn to their next biggest need, which is fixing their offense.

Smith is a mauler up front and could fit nicely in the Patriots new run heavy offense. When the Patriots inevitably let Joe Thuney go after this year, they will need to replace him. Smith can do that from day one.

15) San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech- The Niners will likely opt to trade down if they wind up selecting in the top 15. If they stayed put, they could address their secondary, which has been exposed a bit for its lack of depth during this season. Farley is a long, athletic cornerback with quality traits in man coverage. As long as Farley answers medical concerns, he’s a top 20 lock.

16) Miami Dolphins: Travis Etienne, RB Clemson- In order to select a running back in round one nowadays, that running back has to be a three down guy with home run ability and excellent vision. Etienne has improved immensely in the passing game, which means he now fits the criteria of a first round running back. Miami’s offense gets the feature back it needs moving forward.

17) Chicago Bears: Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota- Allen Robinson is likely walking in free agency, which means Chicago’s incredibly thin receiving core becomes even more thin. Bateman’s ability in 50/50 situations will have NFL coaches salivating. He needs to improve as a route runner, but Bateman has big time upside at the next level because of his athleticism and ability with the ball.

18) Philadelphia Eagles: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB Notre Dame- Owusu-Koramoah is excellent in coverage, which is a necessity for modern day linebackers. Athleticism is his strength, which allows him to lock down opposing tight ends without any help. He would be a necessary piece at the second level of the Eagles defense,

19) Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams: Jay Tufele, IDL Southern California- I don’t love Tufele in the top 20, but he could wind up there because of a lack of depth at the position. Tufele is better suited as a one tech in the NFL because he does a good job of collapsing the pocket. Even though he flashes as a three tech at USC, a space eater role would fit him nicely.

20) Las Vegas Raiders: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina- Horn has put together an excellent season in South Carolina. He has terrific ball skills, he plays aggressive, and he’s incredibly quick out of his T-step. In short, he’s a perfect fit for Jon Gruden’s defense.

21) Cleveland Browns: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU- If the Browns do trade Odell Beckham Jr., they will likely replace him early in this upcoming draft. Marshall Jr., is excellent down the field, and he wins a lot of 50/50 throws. Baker Mayfield likes to give his receivers chances, which should allow Marshall to succeed in Cleveland should this scenario play out in April.

22) Indianapolis Colts: Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan- The Colts defense is improved, but they still need a game changer off the edge. Paye is a breakout star at Michigan during the 2020 campaign. He has a quick first step, and the ability to gain leverage against opposing tackles. Paye has impressive grip strength, which allows him to bully his way to the quarterback. This is a great fit alongside DeForest Buckner.

23) Arizona Cardinals: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida- Okay, so chances are Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is unlikely to incorporate the tight end much no matter who is at the position. However, Kyle Pitts is an elite “move,” tight end. He can split out because of his athleticism, and he uses his size to separate both at the catch point, and in his route. Giving a guy like Pitts to a mastermind like Kingsbury should be unfair.

24) Tennessee Titans: Chris Olave, WR Ohio State- The Titans declined Corey Davis’ fifth year option, which puts them in the market for a receiver in this draft. Olave is a slippery route runner. He breaks clean at the top of his route, he sells fakes nicely, and his route tree is really strong. Olave has good hands as well.

25) New Orleans Saints: Rondale Moore, WR Purdue- If you haven’t figured it out, the theme of this draft is pass catchers galore. Head Coach Sean Payton will love a playmaker like Rondale Moore in his offense. Moore is a big time athlete and he’s lethal with the ball in his hands. He’s quick in and out of his cuts, which allows him to separate at the top of his stem from opposing defensive backs. This is a perfect fit.

26) Baltimore Ravens: Wyatt Davis, IOL Ohio State- Speaking of perfect fits, Wyatt Davis going to a run heavy team is “what you want.” Davis runs over 3-tech lineman with perfect technique in his upper body and immense power. He can get out to the second level and destroy linebackers. The Ravens interior offensive line does need some help, and Davis is a day one starter for most teams in the NFL.

27) New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks: Pat Freiermuth, TE Penn State- Freiermuth and Pitts will be debated as “TE1,” throughout the draft process. Truthfully, it will depend on what the team drafting is looking for.

Freiermuth is more of a “do-it-all” tight end compared to Pitts. Not that Pitts is a bad blocker, but Freiermuth is better. He’s not as athletic as Pitts, but he separates in similar ways. Freiermuth uses his big frame to gain leverage at the top of his routes, and he wins contested catches with said frame.

In this mock, “Baby Gronk,” lands in the AFC East with the rebuilding Jets.

28) Buffalo Bills: Shaun Wade, CB Ohio State- Wade might be best suited as a nickel corner in the NFL. He mirrors extremely well from the slot, but he struggles locating the ball when he’s on the boundary. Fortunately, Head Coach Sean McDermott is excellent at putting his players in a position to succeed, particularly on the defensive end.  

29) Green Bay Packers: Marvin Wilson, DL Florida State- Wilson’s tape is up and down. He flashes the ability to gain leverage at will along the interior. He also has a tendency to play high and completely take himself out of plays. Come “Draft SZN,” some team is going to fall in love with his physical traits and select him in the top 40.

30) Pittsburgh Steelers: Kyle Trask, QB Florida- While I don’t love the idea of Trask in round one right now, Pittsburgh is going to lose Ben Roethlisberger this offseason if the Steelers make a deep run. They could look to make a short term fix in free agency, or pursue a Sam Darnold/Daniel Jones/Dwayne Haskins type of player on the trade market. A more likely option is looking to the draft for a QB on a rookie deal to help them in terms of cap flexibility.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas- Cosmi is a big time athlete up front. He struggles with power rushers at times, but he’s excellent at cutting off edge rushers from successfully running the arch. Donovan Smith has been a turnstile this year, and it would be in the best interest of Tampa Bay to replace him as soon as possible.

32) Kansas City Chiefs: Asante Samuel Jr., CB Florida State- Once you get past Jaycee Horn, the cornerback class is a minefield that NFL teams will have to navigate. Lots of players in this class have some NFL traits, but also some glaring weaknesses. Samuel is strong in mirror technique, as well as off-man coverage, but his ball skills are really lacking and he’s weak in press coverage. If the team that drafts Samuel can improve his ball skills, some team might have a quality number two cornerback on their hands.