Jordan Katz Prediction Style NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Pre-Free Agency
Editor’s Note: This article was written prior to announcement of Compensatory Picks.
Ladies and Gentlemen, this is the mock draft y’all have been waiting for. This is my first real look at predicting the way the first two days of the draft could go. In 1.0, there was still a lot of guessing because the Combine had not occurred yet. Well, the proceedings in Indianapolis have come and gone, and we now have a more concise idea of the players that are being discussed as round one selections.
A few things to keep in mind about my prediction style mocks. This is NOT based on my own opinions of players, nor do I take into account my evaluation of team needs. This is strictly based on what I have heard and what I have read. It is based on Combine meetings and what the draft media believes each team could do.
Any trades that were made in this mock draft (which are denoted with an asterisk next to the team) are predictions based on the rumors going around the league, as well as what I think the teams could look to do based on the way the board falls.
Lastly, this is by no means a finished product. Some teams may address their needs via free agency in a few days. Having said that, this is the way I think the draft could go if it took place tomorrow.
ROUND ONE
1) Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
Burrow met with the Bengals during the Combine, and it seems this selection is now a foregone conclusion. Having said that, sometimes during #MockDraftSZN, you have to play out different scenarios. So for the “analysis,” to this pick, let’s play out the scenario I did in my personal mock draft (https://draftstock.net/2020/03/01/jordan-katz-2020-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-post-combine/).
What if Joe Burrow pulls an Eli Manning and tells the Bengals he won’t play for them? Do the Bengals trade out of the first pick and select a QB later on? Do they stay where they are and select Tua Tagovailoa? Do they neglect the Quarterback position all together?
I think the most likely option is that the Bengals would just select Tua Tagovailoa. I do not see the Bengals coming away from this draft without a franchise QB. Either Tua or Burrow will be the top pick, and based on the meetings in Indianapolis, it seems like Joe Burrow is the lock.
2) *Miami Dolphins via Washington Redskins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
The Miami Dolphins love Tua Tagovailoa. Owner Stephen Ross has wanted him since early October. Miami spent the entire 2019 season acquiring assets for the opportunity to land a quarterback in this draft. Lastly, Tua received a clean bill of health, and some think he can be ready for training camp. Therefore, the only question appears to be, will Miami trade up to two or three to land the former Alabama star?
Washington has been pumping out rumors that they are interested in drafting Tua at two. This feels like their way of saying they would like to trade down, considering they just picked Dwayne Haskins last year.
3) Detroit Lions: Chase Young, EDGE Ohio State
Detroit is in the best position of the 2020 NFL Draft. If Washington trades out to a team needing a QB, they get arguably the best player in the draft in Chase Young. If Washington takes Young, Detroit now becomes the team to trade backwards and acquire assets. A win-win situation for Detroit in Round One.
4) New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, ILB/OLB Clemson
I’ll admit, I have some doubts right now about this selection. Dave Gettleman is publicly enamored with the offensive line class, which makes me think he might do the smart thing and take a tackle in round one.
However, I go back to Gettleman’s comments earlier this offseason about needing defensive pieces (he actually said offense is easy, but I’m ignoring his stupidity for the sake of competent writing). The chess piece of the 2020 draft is Isaiah Simmons because he can do so much on the defensive side of the ball. I still think he is the selection at four for Big Blue.
5) *Indianapolis Colts from Washington Redskins via Miami Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
The infamous double trade down! By trading out of the second overall selection, Washington is admitting that even someone with Chase Young’s talent does not make them a playoff team in 2020. Therefore, why not continue to stockpile assets and trade down again? Plenty of teams need quarterbacks, and the beauty of a strong draft class is that you can select a star caliber player outside of the top 10. Washington continues to acquire assets, while Indianapolis trades up for their franchise QB.
6) Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Love, QB Utah State
The debate between Love and Herbert as QB3 may not be solved until draft day, largely because they have very different skill sets. Love makes plays by being aggressive with the football. He is willing to pull the trigger in any window, and against any coverage scheme.
On the other hand, Herbert is more conservative with the ball, but his arm still allows him to make big time throws.
I think the better fit for the Chargers offense is Jordan Love. This is why QB3 might be decided based on if the Chargers are the third, or fourth team to select a QB on draft night.
7) Carolina Panthers: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State
If a QB is on the board here, Carolina is another potential trade down candidate. In the scenario that all four QBs go ahead of them, they wind up selecting the top player on their board. Okudah replaces pending free agent James Bradberry, and changes the way the Panthers play defense because of his elite man coverage ability.
8) Arizona Cardinals: Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa
The run of offensive tackles could begin with Arizona. Wirfs showed elite athleticism during the NFL Combine, which pairs perfectly with Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Since all four of the top tackles are viewed as day one starters, Arizona takes the best scheme fit for their up tempo, spread offense. That player is Wirfs.
9) Jacksonville Jaguars: Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville
Becton makes the most sense for Jacksonville because of his ability in the run game. He is a mauler, with the athleticism to get out to the second level and the power to run over defenders. I love this fit because Jacksonville can run behind Becton whenever they want, and they can leave him on an island in pass protection.
10) Cleveland Browns: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama
OT3 in my prediction mock is the top offensive tackle according to many. The reason Wills fell is strictly because the Giants went with Isaiah Simmons at four. If the Giants take a tackle instead, they will select Wills because Wills is viewed as the most complete prospect of the offensive tackle group. If Arizona is the first team selecting a tackle, Wills could wind up going later than expected.
11) New York Jets: Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
I still have no idea how Thomas is the fourth guy among the top four tackles, but as a Jets fan, I’m not complaining. The run on tackles ends with the Jets scooping my second best player in the draft.
12) Las Vegas Raiders: Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama
I know Jerry Jeudy is expected to be the first wide receiver selected next month. However, you can make a legitimate argument for each of the big three to be the top guy taken. Jeudy is the best route runner, Lamb’s game is the most complete, and Ruggs is the most explosive. It could depend on which team is selecting when the first receiver comes off the board. If that team is Vegas, don’t be surprised if Head Coach Jon Gruden bangs the drum for Ruggs because of how dynamic he is as a playmaker.
13) *Washington Redskins via Indianapolis Colts: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
Washington hit a home run with the selection of Terry McLaurin last year. Adding Jerry Jeudy to their receiving core would give Dwayne Haskins all the tools he needs to succeed.
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CJ Henderson, CB Florida
Henderson had a phenomenal weekend in Indianapolis, catapulting his draft stock by demonstrating his elite athleticism. The Buccaneers were miserable against the pass last year, making Henderson an easy selection.
15) *Seattle Seahawks via Denver Broncos: K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE LSU
Seattle is most likely going to let Jadeveon Clowney walk in free agency, putting them back in the market for an edge rusher this offseason. Don’t be surprised if they look to get aggressive and move up the draft board for Chaisson. He has big time dip and bend ability, and excels as a rusher from both the stand up position as well as wtih his hand in the dirt.
Denver could be a trade down candidate if the offensive tackles are gone by the time they select. With the depth of the receiver class, and the measurable difference between Andrew Thomas and the next best tackle, Denver could acquire assets while still selecting a quality player later in round one.
16) *Philadelphia Eagles via Atlanta Falcons: CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
Should a receiver start to fall like Lamb did here, the Eagles will be one of the teams looking to come up to select them. With Atlanta missing out on Chaisson by one pick, the trade between the two teams writes itself.
Editor’s Note: One of the big three receivers is going to fall in round one. The draft class is too strong at receiver for this not to happen. It does not mean that teams think less of Lamb, assuming Lamb is the guy that falls.
17) Dallas Cowboys: Derrick Brown, IDL Auburn
Dallas is likely to select defense early in the 2020 draft. Brown struggled during the athletic portion of the Combine, but his tape is terrific. He is a do-it-all defensive tackle that can start from day one.
18) Miami Dolphins via Pittsburgh Steelers: Austin Jackson, OT USC
Once Miami moves up for a QB, the rest of the draft is anyone’s best guess. Despite a surprisingly competitive season in 2019, this team has so many needs. Their offensive line is a mess, and you cannot run out a rookie QB out behind a bad offensive line. This makes O-Line my guess as to the selection at 18.
19) Las Vegas Raiders via Chicago Bears: Patrick Queen, ILB LSU
When you flip on the tape of the final few games, there were not many better players in college football than Patrick Queen. We know that General Manager Mike Mayock took a lot of stock in postseason play based on his first round selections from last year (Clelin Ferrell at four, Trayvon Mullen later on). Not only is Patrick Queen a player at a position of need, he also had a terrific postseason for the LSU Tigers.
20) Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams: Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
Jacksonville taking a corner in round one feels like a layup after the AJ Bouye trade. Fulton’s footwork on tape will make him highly coveted in the back end of round one. Assuming the Jaguars pass on a cornerback at nine, don’t be shocked if they try to trade up higher than 20 to ensure they land the cornerback that they covet.
21) *Atlanta Falcons via Philadelphia Eagles: Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin
Here is my first real curveball of the draft. Atlanta taking a running back after cutting Devonta Freeman would not be surprising. Even if they chose to do so in round one, I don’t think anyone would call it a huge shock.
If the first running back off the board is not D’Andre Swift, that’s where many would be stunned. Jonathan Taylor had a superb career at Wisconsin, and he showed home run athleticism during his workout at the NFL Combine. He also interviewed extremely well, and one of the teams that informally interviewed him was the Falcons. This could be a move off of people’s radar that comes to fruition next month.
22) Buffalo Bills: Denzel Mims, WR Baylor
Mims tested off the charts athletically during the weekend in Indy. He’s a big body receiver that makes plays down the field with his size and his athleticism. That is the exact player Buffalo is looking for to round out their receiving core.
23) New England Patriots: Xavier McKinney, FS Alabama
New England has plenty of needs heading into this draft, which is a rarity for the Patriots during this dynasty. Assuming they are able to re-sign Tom Brady (because that’s the only way you can begin to predict their offseason), look for the Patriots to replace Devin McCourty with one of the talented safeties in this draft.
McKinney is a ball hawk in the back end, best served in cover one or cover three. His game play on tape is actually very reminiscent of McCourty. This would be a smooth transition for the back end of Bill Belichick’s defense.
24) New Orleans Saints: Jeff Gladney, CB TCU
There may not be a better fit in the back end of round than Jeff Gladney to the New Orleans Saints. He excels in man coverage, and the Saints need a man cover corner to play opposite Marshon Lattimore. The Saints would be able to blitz more and create more turnover opportunities.
25) Minnesota Vikings: Grant Delpit, FS/SS LSU
The Vikings are losing so many secondary pieces that a defensive back in round one should be a lock. Delpit had an up and down 2019 season at LSU, but he’s a playmaker near the line of scrimmage, and he has the ability to range from the single high safety position (even though he struggled to tackle at times last year).
26) *Washington Redskins from Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans: Josh Jones, OT Houston
Washington is going to need a replacement for Trent Williams once they trade him this offseason. Josh Jones is an elite athlete for a tackle. He has fluid hips and natural ability in pass protection. If he cleans up his footwork (much like Austin Jackson), Jones could be a quality starter for a long time.
27) *Denver Broncos via Seattle Seahawks: Javon Kinlaw, DT South Carolina
I have no idea how Denver pulled this off. They trade down and select a top 15 talent in Kinlaw while acquiring assets. It’s extremely unlikely that Kinlaw lasts this long on draft night, but this is the beauty of a quality draft. When there is a lot of talent, players will fall.
28) Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Murray, ILB Oklahoma
Murray’s game is very reminiscent of Patrick Queen from a few picks ago. He is the modern day three down linebacker because of his range from sideline to sideline, as well as his ability to cover tight ends and linebackers. Baltimore enters this draft needing defense, a spot that they have rarely been in. More importantly, they are in desperate need of linebackers.
29) Tennessee Titans: Cesar Ruiz, IOL Michigan
Tennessee will most likely select offensive line in round one. Ruiz has the intelligence and athleticism to smoothly transition to guard in the NFL, making him the selection over Lloyd Cushenberry.
30) Green Bay Packers: Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
Green Bay should be locked into a receiver at this spot, and based on the way the board fell, they would definitely scoop up Justin Jefferson.
Having said that, keep an eye on Kenneth Murray or Patrick Queen at this spot, should they be available. Blake Martinez is a pending free agent, and is likely to leave in free agency. With the depth of the receiver class, the Packers could take a middle linebacker in round one, and capitalize on what is a talented group of day two receivers.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Antoine Winfield Jr., FS Minnesota
Of the players that stood out at the Combine, there may have been none bigger than the 5’9 defensive back from Minnesota. Winfield has some Tyrann Mathieu in his game. He can range from the single high position, and he mirrors slot receivers very well. The one question scouts and draft experts had about him was if he possessed NFL level athleticism, which Winfield answered with his workout in Indianapolis. This is probably his ceiling in the draft, but San Francisco needs a replacement for Jimmie Ward, making it plausible for Winfield to sneak into round one.
32) Kansas City Chiefs: D’Andre Swift, RB Georgia
Well, this is the scenario the league should fear. Kansas City winding up with one of the top three running backs makes their offense completely unstoppable in 2020. Swift is the one cut, home run hitter that this offense is missing out of the backfield.
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) Miami Dolphins trade the #5, #26, #70, and a 2021 2nd Round Pick to the Washington Redskins for the #2 Overall Selection.
2) Indianapolis Colts trade the #13, #75 and a 2021 1st Round Pick to the Washington Redskins for the #5 and #148.
3) Seattle Seahawks trade the #27, #59 and #64 to the Denver Broncos for the #15 and #95.
4) Philadelphia Eagles trade the #21, #53, #127 and a 2021 4th Round Pick to the Atlanta Falcons for the #16, #70 and a 2021 6th Round Pick.
ROUND TWO
33) Cincinnati Bengals: Lucas Niang, OT TCU
Cincinnati just took their franchise QB. An offensive tackle catapults to the top of their draft wish list in order to properly protect Joe Burrow.
34) Indianapolis Colts via Washington Redskins: Ross Blacklock, IDL TCU
Blacklock could sneak into round one after a terrific weekend in Indianapolis. If he did not have an injury history, his tape combined with his athleticism would make him a round one lock.
35) *Los Angeles Rams via Detroit Lions: Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE Penn State
I doubt Gross-Matos makes it to round two, but that’s the way the board fell in this prediction mock. The Rams move up to address a need at edge rusher because they hate draft picks.
36) New York Giants: Matthew Peart, OT UCONN
If the Giants do select Isaiah Simmons in round one, addressing the offensive line in round two becomes a must.
37) *Tampa Bay Buccaneers via Los Angeles Chargers: Jacob Eason, QB Washington
I have said it for months in my personal mock drafts; the best scheme fit for any QB this year is Jacob Eason winding up in the hands of Bruce Arians.
38) Carolina Panthers: Neville Gallimore, IDL Oklahoma
Gallimore uses his quickness to his advantage as a pass rusher. He would be a good compliment along the interior for Kawann Short.
39) Miami Dolphins: JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State
The Dolphins will come out of this draft with a starting running back. Dobbins is my top running back, but I think he’s RB3 when the draft rolls around in April.
40) *Dallas Cowboys via Arizona Cardinals: Jeremy Chinn, FS Southern Illinois-
The Cowboys need help all throughout their secondary. Chinn is a big time athlete with impressive range. He would fit nicely in the Cowboys defense.
41) Cleveland Browns: Ashtyn Davis, SS California
Davis is a thumper on tape, with solid ability in cover two. His versatility should make him a day two favorite of many teams.
42) Jacksonville Jaguars: AJ Epenesa, DL Iowa
This is not the best fit for Epenesa, but Jacksonville will need a pass rusher once they trade Yannick Ngakoue. They scoop up Epenesa after a poor showing from him at the Combine.
43) Chicago Bears via Las Vegas Raiders: AJ Terrell, CB Clemson
AJ Terrell slides into the Bears second cornerback slot opposite Kyler Fuller.
44) Indianapolis Colts: Justin Madubuike, IDL Texas A&M
The Colts interior defense has been less than stellar for quite some time. Madubuike brings some toughness and physicality to the middle of the Colts defense.
45) *Los Angeles Chargers via Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ezra Cleveland, OT Boise State
After trading back and acquiring a few assets, the Chargers select the tackle they would have picked at 37.
46) Denver Broncos: Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Colorado
Denver needs a playmaker opposite Courtland Sutton to help Drew Lock progress in 2020. Shenault’s ability after the catch is very reminiscent of a former Broncos wide receiver, Demariyus Thomas.
47) Atlanta Falcons: Josh Uche, EDGE/OLB Michigan
Uche is undersized for the straight edge position, but he would be a nice fit as a LEO linebacker in Dan Quinn’s defense (aka, where Vic Beasley should have played).
48) New York Jets: Jalen Reagor, WR TCU
Reagor’s play speed is much faster than his athletic testing showed at the Combine. He should still be a high selection on day two.
49) Pittsburgh Steelers: Isaiah Wilson, OT Georgia
More offensive linemen being selected highly. Wilson is a mauler in the run game. His length and physicality will make him an attractive option for the Steelers.
50) Chicago Bears: Lloyd Cushenberry III, IOL LSU
Chicago needs to address their offensive line in order to help Mitchell Trubisky (or whomever their QB is) succeed in 2020.
51) *Arizona Cardinals via Dallas Cowboys: Raekwon Davis, IDL Alabama
Arizona needs to replace multiple starters along their defensive front. My guess is they will do that early on day two.
52) *Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams: Trevon Diggs, CB Alabama
The cornerback class is incredibly deep, which is why Detroit can trade back, acquire assets, and still select a starting caliber player.
53) *Atlanta Falcons via Philadelphia Eagles: Damon Arnette, CB Ohio State
Desmond Trufant is looking like he will be a cap cut in a few days. Arnette’s footwork and ball skills make him a potential day one starter in the NFL.
54) *Jacksonville Jaguars via Buffalo Bills (Buffalo Acquires Yannick Ngakoue): Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR Michigan
Buffalo is one of the teams looking to acquire Yannick Ngakoue. I think they are the most likely team to give up a premium draft choice in order to land the talented pass rusher.
Jacksonville needs playmakers, which is why they select DPJ here.
55) *Cleveland Browns from Atlanta Falcons via New England Patriots: Zack Baun, EDGE Wisconsin
Cleveland continues their aggressive offseason mentality they have developed. They trade up for an impact pass rusher in Baun.
56) Miami Dolphins via New Orleans Saints: Terrell Lewis, EDGE Alabama
Miami may choose to address pass rusher via free agency, but right now it’s near the top of their draft needs.
57) Houston Texans: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LSU
A monster postseason will have Edwards-Helaire highly coveted by teams with zone blocking schemes up front.
58) Minnesota Vikings: Bryce Hall, CB Virginia
Minnesota doubles up on secondary players because they need multiple starters in the back-end.
59) *Denver Broncos via Seattle Seahawks: Malik Harrison, ILB Ohio State
Harrison’s strength is in the run game, but Head Coach Vic Fangio likes defensive players that are physical. This is a natural fit.
60) Baltimore Ravens: Tee Higgins, WR Clemson
My guess is that the draft media is overreacting to Higgins not working out in Indianapolis. I think he will still be a day two selection because of his red zone ability and catch radius.
61) *New York Jets via Tennessee Titans: Matt Hennessy, IOL Temple
New General Manager Joe Douglas will aggressively pursue revamping the Jets offensive line this offseason. He trades up to land the Jets starting Center in 2020.
62) Green Bay Packers: Cole Kmet, TE Notre Dame
Green Bay continues to add weapons for Aaron Rodgers with the top tight end in this draft class.
63) Kansas City Chiefs via San Francisco 49ers: Noah Igbinoghene, CB Auburn
The Chiefs are being gutted at cornerback in terms of the players that will enter free agency. With the defensive back class as strong as ever, look for them to select one early in the draft.
64) *Denver Broncos from Seattle Seahawks via Kansas City Chiefs: Prince Tega Wanogho, OT Auburn
Denver does need to think about replacing Garrett Bolles, who has been awful since entering the league. With a quality tackle class that has some depth to it, this could be a move for them on day two.
TRADES IN ROUND TWO
1) Los Angeles Rams trade the #52, #84 and a 2021 3rd Round Pick to the Detroit Lions for the #35 and a 2021 5th Round Pick.
2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade the #45 and a 2021 2nd Round Pick to the Los Angeles Chargers for the #37 and a 2021 4th Round Pick.
3) Dallas Cowboys trade the #51 and #82 to the Arizona Cardinals for the #40 Overall Selection.
4) Buffalo Bills trade the #54 Overall Selection to the Jacksonville Jaguars for Yannick Ngakoue.
5) Cleveland Browns trade the #74, #115, and a 2021 3rd Round Pick to the Atlanta Falcons for the #55 and #140.
6) New York Jets trade the #68 and #120 to the Tennessee Titans for the #61 Overall Selection.
ROUND THREE
65) Cincinnati Bengals: Jaylon Johnson, CB Utah
66) Washington Redskins: Troy Pride Jr., CB Notre Dame
67) Detroit Lions: Marlon Davidson, IDL Auburn
68) *Tennessee Titans from New York Jets via New York Giants: Ben Bartch, OT St. John’s
69) Carolina Panthers: Robert Hunt, IOL Louisiana
70) *Washington Redskins via Miami Dolphins: Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona State
71) Los Angeles Chargers: Cam Akers, RB Florida State
72) Arizona Cardinals: KJ Hamler, WR Penn State
73) Jacksonville Jaguars: Kyle Dugger, SS Lenoir-Rhyne
74) *Atlanta Falcons via Cleveland Browns: Adam Trautman, TE Dayton
75) *Washington Redskins via Indianapolis Colts: Julian Okwara, EDGE Notre Dame
76) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bradlee Anae, EDGE Utah
77) Denver Broncos: Darnay Holmes, CB UCLA
78) Atlanta Falcons: Alohi Gilman, FS/SS Notre Dame
79) New York Jets: Michael Ojemudia, CB Iowa
80) Las Vegas Raiders: Davon Hamilton, IDL Ohio State
81) Las Vegas Raiders via Chicago Bears: Jalen Hurts, QB Oklahoma
82) *Arizona Cardinals via Dallas Cowboys: Curtis Weaver, EDGE Boise State
83) Denver Broncos via Pittsburgh Steelers: Nick Harris, IOL Washington
84) *Detroit Lions via Los Angeles Rams: Troy Dye, ILB Oregon
85) Philadelphia Eagles: Saahdiq Charles, OT LSU
86) *Cincinnati Bengals via Buffalo Bills: Van Jefferson, WR Florida
87) New England Patriots: Ben Bredeson, IOL Michigan
88) New Orleans Saints: Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina
89) Minnesota Vikings: Damien Lewis, IOL LSU
90) Cleveland Browns via Houston Texans: Jordyn Brooks, ILB Texas Tech
91) Las Vegas Raiders from Houston Texans via Seattle Seahawks: Brandon Jones, SS Texas
92) Baltimore Ravens: Kenny Willekes, EDGE Michigan State
93) Tennessee Titans: Chase Claypool, WR Notre Dame
94) Green Bay Packers: Willie Gay Jr., ILB Mississippi State
95) *Seattle Seahawks from Denver Broncos via San Francisco 49ers: Netane Muti, IOL Fresno State
96) Kansas City Chiefs: Hakeem Adeniji, OL Kansas
TRADES IN ROUND THREE
1) Cincinnati Bengals trade the #107 and #147 to the Buffalo Bills for the #86 Overall Selection.
DraftStock.Net 