Jordan Katz 2019 Prediction Mock Draft 1.0
This is the first installment of my prediction style Mock Draft. As many of you know by now, I believe that Mock Drafts should have two parts, what you would do personally if you had control of all 32 teams, and what you would expect to happen on draft day. The purpose behind the two is to allow for a fair representation of your player evaluations as well as your personal evaluation of team needs, and then to give an idea of who can go where based on reports and media buzz.
For this mock draft in particular, this is based on if the draft was tomorrow. With that in mind, you’ll see the Quarterbacks in this class in a more traditional spot than my personal mock drafts. There are also still trades in this Mock Draft, because obviously a prediction mock must have trades. Any trade that I made in this mock that wasn’t made prior to this is designated via an asterisk.
ROUND ONE
1) Arizona Cardinals: Nick Bosa, EDGE Ohio State- I don’t care how many rumors fly around with Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. I don’t care how many rumors get floated around with regards to the Cardinals potentially trading Josh Rosen.
Eat. Sleep. Draft Nick Bosa. Repeat.
2) *New York Giants via San Francisco 49ers: Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State- At this point, I don’t see how you refute this statement; the Giants banked on Justin Herbert. They draft Saquon Barkley ahead of Sam Darnold to take Herbert in 2019. They lost. Now the Giants are stuck with a dilemma. Do they sign a free agent quarterback, stick with Eli Manning and wait until 2020 to draft a Quarterback, or do they draft one this year?
If the Giants are going to take a QB, I think they’ll have to trade up to do so. There will be competition from the Jaguars, Broncos and Dolphins, all with the ammunition to trade ahead of them. Not to mention, there are two teams at the top that would love to trade down and acquire assets, the Niners and the Jets.
I think the Giants wind up panicking due to the pressure of finding their future starter, and trade up to get the presumed top QB in a weak draft class.
3) New York Jets: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE Clemson- The Jets are the toughest team to predict at the top of this draft because they have so much cap space, and will most assuredly fill as many needs as they can via free agency. Assuming the Jets are only able to land one edge rusher, a second one makes a ton of sense at this selection. Ferrell may not have the biggest ceiling of the edge guys in this class, but many argue he easily has the lowest floor, which will be very attractive to Mike Maccagnan and company.
Editor’s Note: Jets fans may be wondering why this isn’t Josh Allen, Jachai Polite or Brian Burns. With Leonard Williams going to 4-3 defensive tackle in Gregg Williams’ defense, the guy that makes the most sense is someone who can collapse the pocket with strength and technique instead of an edge rusher that excels at running the arch. The Jets will want as many one on one matchups for Leonard Williams as they can get, which is why someone like Ferrell who demonstrates excellent technique and gap control is more important than the elite athlete that motors around the edge.
4) Oakland Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama- Oakland needs pass rushers. It doesn’t matter if that player comes off the edge or along the interior, the Raiders must get to the passer to improve in 2019.
Quinnen Williams is a better pass rusher than Ed Oliver, which is why he has emerged as the top five talent instead of the athletic specimen that is Oliver.
5) *Miami Dolphins via Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma- If you’re going to draft Murray, you need to have a system designed for him to succeed. A west coast, up tempo philosophy makes a ton of sense to me because Murray excels at anticipation and timing throws to receivers. Of the QB needy teams near the top of this draft, I think Miami actually has the best personnel to take the gamble on the Heisman Trophy winner. If it doesn’t work, you just draft Trevor Lawrence in two years and call it a day.
6) *San Francisco 49ers via New York Giants: Greedy Williams, CB LSU- Williams’ size, length and athleticism should have him as an early pick come draft day. The Niners need secondary help, especially with Richard Sherman’s inconsistent play throughout the season. San Francisco trades down and still gets their man.
7) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jonah Williams, OT, Let Me Repeat, OFFENSIVE TACKLE, Alabama- JONAH WILLIAMS IS NOT A GUARD! Williams has terrific technique and plays with a level of intelligence that you need up front. Measurables do not matter as much as technique and intelligence do for offensive linemen in this era of football. Eventually, scouts and teams will figure this out.
Editor’s Note: I think the Jaguars will wind up with Nick Foles after signing John DeFilippo to be their Offensive Coordinator, which is why this pick isn’t a QB.
8) Detroit Lions: Josh Allen, EDGE Kentucky- Allen is a perfect fit for Detroit at eight. If the Lions want to play 4-3, Allen can either play the weak side end, or a Leo Linebacker. If Matt Patricia wants to transition to a 3-4 with the acquisition of Damon Harrison and the pending loss of Ziggy Ansah, Allen can line up at 3-4 OLB.
9) Buffalo Bills: DK Metcalf, WR Ole Miss- Josh Allen was very impressive with limited weapons in 2018, which means it’s time to see what he can do with some targets in 2019. Metcalf should be WR1 and a top 15 lock once he dominates the combine in March.
10) Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB Missouri- Three Quarterbacks in the top 10? In this class? Is it 2011 again where quarterbacks get overdrafted just because they are quarterbacks?
Why yes, yes it is. Denver reaches for their presumed QB of the future.
11) Cincinnati Bengals: Cody Ford, OT/OG Oklahoma- Ford possesses incredible athleticism and footwork for someone of his size and stature. Despite acquiring offensive line left and right over the last few years, the Bengals still need help at the tackle position. Ford could even transition to guard if the Bengals wish to move on from Clint Boling.
12) Green Bay Packers: Brian Burns, EDGE Florida State- This is the first time I feel like I’m taking a chance in this mock draft. Burns is an athletic monster, but the buzz around Allen and Jachai Polite could force Burns down the board come draft day.
Having said that, I think Burns will separate himself come the latter stages of the draft process when scouts and GM’s see just how athletic this guy actually is.
13) *Tampa Bay Buccaneers via Miami Dolphins: Devin White, ILB LSU- Kwon Alexander is most likely departing via free agency, which means the Bucs need to find his replacement. White is one of the few do-it-all middle linebackers in this draft class, and that’s why he’s a top 20 lock come April.
Tampa Bay uses their draft position to trade down and acquire assets, while still addressing a major need.
14) Atlanta Falcons: Ed Oliver, DT Houston- The possibility of Oliver falling on draft day is becoming more of a reality. It doesn’t mean Oliver is a potential “bust,” it just means that the defensive line class is so good, and the other positions are so weak, players have to fall. What a steal this could be for Atlanta.
15) Washington Redskins: TJ Hockenson, TE Iowa- Jordan Reed is electric, but he’s never on the field and he’s finally in a position to be a cap cut. In the tight end class sent from the heavens, Washington can find Reed’s replacement and still emphasize the tight end position in the pass game.
16) Carolina Panthers: Chris Lindstrom, OG Boston College- It’s another typical non-sexy draft pick for the Panthers, but it also makes a lot of sense. The Panthers offensive line play is simply not what it was a few years ago. Lindstrom is a complete prospect that will go much higher on draft day than he is currently being valued at.
17) *Philadelphia Eagles via Cleveland Browns: Rashan Gary, DE Michigan- Rumors out of Philly are that the Eagles will not bring back Brandon Graham, which means they need an edge guy opposite Michael Bennett. Gary is better along the interior in my opinion, but many see him as a 4-3 defensive end at the next level because of his ability to long arm tackles and win with strength. The Eagles have assets in this draft, so they can trade up to ensure they land their guy.
18) Minnesota Vikings: Andre Dillard, OT Washington State- The Vikings offensive line was miserable in 2018, and a large reason as to why they missed the playoffs. Dillard is very strong in pass protection, showing good ability in the 45 degree set, as well as the vertical set. I personally don’t have a round one grade on him, but I would expect to see him in the top 40 picks as of now.
19) Tennessee Titans: Noah Fant, TE Iowa- Delanie Walker is getting up there in age and Jonnu Smith does not appear to be his replacement long term. Fant can stretch the middle of the field and open up one on one matchups for Corey Davis, while still being a valuable run blocker as well as a safety valve for Marcus Mariota on third down.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers: Trayvon Mullen, CB Clemson- Trayvon Mullen as a Top 20 corner in a prediction mock? You bet. Mullen had a monster game in the National Championship, which has catapulted his draft stock. His smarts and ball skills in one-on-one coverage could have him rise up draft boards if he can put together a strong combine.
21) Seattle Seahawks: Deionte Thompson, FS Alabama- I don’t buy the negative buzz around Thompson based solely off one one average performance in the title game. I doubt Thompson would’ve entered the draft if he didn’t think he could go round one. The Seahawks can move on from Earl Thomas and get a single high ballhawking safety all in one go.
22) Baltimore Ravens: Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, WR Oklahoma- The Ravens makeshift receiving core worked for this year, but it’s not a long term solution. Hollywood Brown is an ideal playmaker for Lamar Jackson. Not only is he a deep threat, but he’s lightning quick out of cuts, making him a threat at all three levels of the passing attack.
23) Houston Texans: Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida: Taylor has a lot of top 15 buzz, but I just don’t see it at the moment. He should be a solid right tackle at the next level because he’s physical and plays with inside hands most of the time, but I don’t know if I see the foot speed to warrant a top 10-15 selection. Having said that, he should be just fine on the right side of a NFL offensive unit.
Editor’s Note: If Houston doesn’t seek out offensive line with their first pick, they are severely misguided. That’s all, back to you Jim.
24) Oakland Raiders via Chicago Bears: N’Keal Harry, WR Arizona State- Speaking of buzz, the buzz on Harry has cooled a lot since the college football season ended. I’m fairly confident that’s only because it’s been a while since he was in the spotlight. Once he shows out at the Combine, he should re-assert himself as a top 40 lock. Oakland needs playmakers desperately so the fit here makes sense as well.
25) *Cleveland Browns via Philadelphia Eagles: Christian Wilkins, DT Clemson- The Browns will have the capability to address a lot of their needs via free agency, so their draft strategy is anyone’s best guess. Trevon Coley is a nice player along the interior, but adding Wilkins to this front four catapults it to one of the best units in the league.
26) Indianapolis Colts: Jeffrey Simmons, DT Mississippi State- Simmons is a tough guy to judge. If he can answer the questions that will come up about his off the field issues, he can go top 15. If teams don’t like his answers, he can wind up outside of round one. Either way, the team that lands Simmons is going to get an elite pass rusher along the interior.
27) Oakland Raiders via Dallas Cowboys: Jachai Polite, EDGE Florida- This would complete a phenomenal first round for Oakland. Polite may go lower on draft day than people expect because he was a situational player at Florida for the most part, but his unique ability to dip and bend around the edge should still have him off the board sooner rather than later.
28) Los Angeles Chargers: Dexter Lawrence, NT Clemson- I’m not sure I buy Lawrence still going round one after the mishap off the field during the end of the college football season, However, the lack of true nose tackles in this draft should help Lawrence stay near the top 40-50 players. I think this is about the peak of how high he can go because the Chargers are desperate for a nose tackle that can play multiple techniques.
29) Kansas City Chiefs: DeAndre Baker, CB Georgia- Baker is a strong man cover corner, excelling in press coverage. However, the questions regarding his athleticism could have him slip in the draft. I know many of mock drafts have him in the 10-15 range, but I think his sweet spot will be closer to the back half of round one.
30) Green Bay Packers via New Orleans Saints: David Edwards, OT Wisconsin: Edwards’ smarts will have him highly coveted in the 30-45 range of this draft. He’s not the fleetest of foot, but his technique is improving and he shows a terrific understanding of stunts and twists for someone who recently converted to an offensive linemen. The Packers still need offensive line depth, and Edwards could be a steal in the future.
31) New England Patriots: Irv Smith Jr., TE Alabama- New England is about to lose a lot of weapons, most notably Rob Gronkowski. I think Super Bowl Sunday will be his final game in the NFL. Number one priority for the Patriots this offseason has to be finding weapons for TB12. In a strong pass catching draft class, and a tight end class for the ages, the Patriots can kill two birds with one stone and find Gronkowski’s replacement.
32) Los Angeles Rams: Montez Sweat, EDGE Mississippi State: Sweat has a unique ability to play with his hand in the dirt, or standing up, and still get a quick first step off the line, similar to Dante Fowler. Because Fowler won’t be back after the Super Bowl, the Rams will need someone off the edge to replace him. Enter Montez Sweat.
TRADES IN ROUND ONE
1) New York Giants trade the #6, #37, a 2020 1st round and a 2020 3rd round pick to the San Francisco 49ers for the #2 and #162.
2) Miami Dolphins trade the #13, #78 and a 2020 1st Round pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the #5.
3) Philadelphia Eagles trade the #25, #57 and #152 to the Cleveland Browns for the #17 and #112.
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