Mike Reynolds’ Five Tips for Making a Mock Draft
The Senior Bowl has already come and gone, which means we are officially in mock draft season. Many people will attempt to make a mock draft, because quite frankly anyone can. Mock drafts are a fun way to explore what you would do if you were the GM of a team, and also learn quite a bit about the upcoming draft class before they ever hit an NFL field. However, just because anyone can make a mock draft doesn’t mean they are worth your time to read. Here are five tips to consider when making your mock draft for 2015.
1. Decide what kind of mock draft you want to make.
Wait, there is more than one kind of mock draft? Most people might not realize it but the kind of mock draft you do depends on the type of thing you are trying to predict. In my opinion, mock drafters fall into two groups.
- Those who want to accurately predict where a player falls in a round
Very self-explanatory. These mock drafters go into the draft and try to have the perfect mock draft. Their success when it comes to a mock draft comes solely from how many picks they get correct. It does feel pretty nice when you make a bold call that nobody was expecting and it comes to life.
- Those who want to accurately predict a player’s success in the NFL.
This is much different from the first type. This kind of person could doesn’t really care if their mock draft is accurate in the moment. They are in it for the long haul. I consider this strategy to be more difficult to stick with, but more rewarding in the end if you are right.
As an example, someone who predicts NFL success might have said that Aaron Curry would be a bust and at the time that would have been laughed at. Many experts said that Aaron Curry might be the best player in the 2009 draft class and eventually go to the Hall of Fame. He ended up being picked 4th overall that year. We know now that he never lived up to that standard and is now out of the league. That guy who predicted he would be a bust in 2009 can now sit smugly in 2014 knowing that he called that before Curry was even drafted.
2. Stick to your guns.
Anyone can use someone else’s ranking when they make a mock draft. I view different mock drafts because I want to see an opinion that is different from the one that everyone decided to copy from experts. The so-called “experts” can never claim that they have even been 50% accurate with their predictions, and you might have spotted something about a player that nobody else picked up on yet.
I get it. Nobody wants to be made fun of for being wrong, or have to explain their dissenting opinion to a group of angry people who want to tear them apart, but here is the thing: You are going to be wrong. Those people who are trying to correct you? They are going to be wrong too. The expert whose sources told him that the Bears would take player X? You bet he is probably going to be wrong also. There is no such thing as being 100% accurate when it comes to the NFL draft. Embrace being incorrect.
3. Know what you’re talking about.
This is important. I am a big proponent of the fact that basically anything can happen when it comes to the NFL draft, but if you are predicting the Packers to take a QB in the first round, you may want to take a step back and reconsider.
Take the time to research what position a team needs, and what position a team is set at. Make sure you know what each team drafted last year. If Team A drafted a cornerback in each of the past two drafts, chances are they won’t be going back for a third.
Also, people may not want to believe it, but position scarcity does drive where and when a player might go. Know what positions are prioritized and which ones are not. If you do these things, you might just see a lot less angry fans calling for your head when you put out your first mock of the season.
4. Remember: Teams don’t always make the smart decision.
I think this is one of the most important things to remember. If you are trying to create the most accurate mock draft you can, why are you giving every team what you consider to be their optimal choice. Everyone can most likely agree that there is going to be one pick that we consider “stupid” come draft day. So keeping this in mind, the only way to accurately predict how the draft will unfold is to try decipher which team is going to make that not so clever decision this year.
I admit, this one is kind of hard and not many people are going to go for it. Despite this, you can bet that I will be purposely including an out there selection in my mock draft in the hopes that I accurately predict which team took a swing and missed.
5. Have fun with it.
No matter your reason for making a mock draft, this is your opportunity to be the GM. If you think The Panthers would be better off trading away Cam Newton and drafting a new QB, go ahead and mock it. Anyone can look at a list of players and mock them in the same way thousands of others did.
Go crazy with it. Mock as many trades as you want. Put that third round projected player in the first round. Make decisions for your team that would drive fans absolutely crazy. Or be as accurate as you can and take solace in the fact that you nailed that one call nobody else did. It’s your mock draft. Do whatever makes you happy and be proud of it no matter the result.
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