Jordan Katz NFL Mock Draft 1.0
The wonderful NFL Mock Draft season is upon us. It is the start of the hope that comes with every offseason. For the teams that don’t make the playoffs, it’s a chance to rebuild, and a way to get back to the postseason. For those that made the playoffs, it’s chance to further your chances of making it back next season..
This season there are a lot of talented prospects. There are risk/reward players, a loaded wide receiver class, and one Jameis Winston. In reality, the debate of Winston or Marcus Mariota could determine the way the entire draft plays out. Which player do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers give the keys to their franchise to? Or do they opt to build their team further before taking a quarterback, and draft an elite prospect like Leonard Williams or Amari Cooper?
This is just the first of my mock drafts before the NFL Draft, which has now become a spectacle to behold. Since this is the first one, there are no trades, because not every spot has been set in stone yet. As the draft gets closer and closer, I’ll start mapping out trades based on which teams I think are most likely to move up or down.
ROUND ONE
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)- Jameis Winston, QB Florida State
The worst kept secret in the world is that Tampa Bay is taking a quarterback, if they stay with the first overall pick. In my opinion, Winston is actually the safer of the two quarterbacks, despite his off the field issues, because he has all the tools to be a franchise quarterback at the next level.
2) Tennessee Titans (2-14)- Leonard Williams, DT USC
Tennessee obviously needs a quarterback, but something tells me they would opt to trade down rather than drafting Marcus Mariota. Williams is my top prospect in the draft. He’s disruptive in the run game, he has elite pass rushing moves, and his versatility makes him a perfect fit opposite a zero technique in Jurrell Casey.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)- Dante Fowler Jr., DE Florida
Fowler is my top pass rusher in the draft, and for a team that needs an edge rusher this makes the most sense.
4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)- Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
Oakland is in desperate need of a number one target for Derek Carr, and Cooper is surely that guy. Cooper is an Antonio Brown clone. He excels at route running, he’s explosive out of his break and he has phenomenal hands. This is a no brainer.
5) Washington Redskins (4-12)- Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson
While Beasley isn’t my second best edge player, he’s my best 3-4 outside linebacker, which is what Washington plays. Beasley is a pass rushing extraordinaire and can rush with his hand in the dirt or standing up, which is an underrated asset for edge rushers.
6) New York Jets (4-12)- Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
Jets fans get the benefit of the Titans passing on Mariota, but is it a positive? The possibility of Mariota not translating to the pros because of Oregon’s system quarterback has been well documented. Also his lack of an inventory of throws could hurt him on draft day.
However, I believe that Mariota’s accuracy, underrated arm strength, and intelligence will allow him to overcome the “system,” critiques.
7) Chicago Bears (5-11)- Brandon Scherff, OG/OT Iowa
In my opinion, Brandon Scherff is the best offensive lineman in the draft, but he is a guard, not a tackle. This could lead the Bears to pass and go for Landon Collins, even though an in the box safety might not go that high.
If they go for offensive line, I think Scherff is so good as a guard that he should be the first offensive lineman off the board.
8) Atlanta Falcons (6-10)- Nate Orchard, DE Utah
Falcons fans, I know what your thinking. Where is Randy Gregory? I’m not as high on Gregory as others. I think he takes plays off, relies too much on his athleticism, and doesn’t set the edge well versus the run. I see Vernon Gholston 2.0.
Nate Orchard, however, is going to start flying up draft boards. He isn’t as gifted as some of the other pass rushers, but he’s smart, he has a nose for the ball and good pass rushing moves.
9) New York Giants (6-10)- Shaq Thompson, OLB Washington
Here’s my thought process with this one. Eventually the Giants are going to draft a first round linebacker. Shaq Thompson has the makings of a stud. Yes, he doesn’t have ideal size and build. Despite this he’s a beast in coverage, he ranges from sideline to sideline incredibly well, and he has a great football I.Q, something the Giants really value. This could be the time the Giants finally go linebacker because of that.
10) St. Louis Rams (6-10)- Kevin White, WR West Virginia
If Amari Cooper is the best wide receiver in this draft, then Kevin White is 1A. White has the ability to be a home run threat, as well as a red zone target. He has lethal quickness out of his cuts and is a beast in the air. If he can sure up his drops and become a more complete route runner, he could be better than Amari Cooper.
11) Minnesota Vikings (7-9)- Andrus Peat, OT Stanford
Minnesota needs a wide receiver, but there are lots of wide outs in this draft. They also need a tackle, and there are not nearly enough of those.
Peat could be a strong tackle at the next level. He has the athleticism and one-on-one blocking ability to be great in pass protection. Even though his balance is off sometimes, Peat has the makings of a solid pro.
12) Cleveland Browns (7-9)- DeVante Parker, WR Louisville
Parker looks like an unpolished A.J Green to me. He’s not as good of a route runner as Green was out of college, but he’s equally as explosive, and equally as good with the ball in the air. Parker will prove to be a great target for whomever Cleveland decides to start at quarterback in 2015.
13) New Orleans Saints (7-9)- Jordan Phillips, NT Oklahoma
Jordan Phillips is my fourth best prospect in this draft. Why? Phillips has everything I look for in a nose tackle. He eats blockers, he’s disruptive in the run game, and you can’t block him one-on-one. He’s a perfect fit for the Saints defense.
14) Miami Dolphins (8-8)- Eddie Goldman, DT Florida State
Right behind Jordan Phillips in my rankings is Eddie Goldman. He’s so disruptive in both the run and the pass game, and constantly makes big plays. The Dolphins need a 4-3 defensive tackle, and putting Goldman with Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon may make the Dolphins front four one of the best in the league.
15) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)- Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State
San Francisco could go cornerback here, but I think the need to replace Michael Crabtree is too great to ignore. Strong is one of my favorite players in this draft. Some may question his release and the fact his route tree isn’t complete, but I love the upside. He’s great with the ball in his hands, he has the speed to burn defenders, and he is really good with the ball in the air.
16) Houston Texans (9-7)- Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
Waynes is an interesting case for me. He has the man coverage ability to be a shutdown corner. He seems to often be in the wide receivers pocket regardless of whether he’s off the line or in press coverage.
However, teams just seemed to avoid him in favor of better matchups. Can Waynes go from being seldom targeted to becoming frequently targeted, and remain as productive?
17) San Diego Chargers (9-7)- Landon Collins, SS Alabama
Collins would be higher if he wasn’t an in the box safety. He rarely misses a tackle, and while he is not a ball hawk, his instincts are terrific. Putting him opposite Eric Weddle could prove to be one of the best safety tandems in the league.
18) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma
If there is a team that is going to draft DGB’s talent despite his character issues, it’s going to be Andy Reid and the Chiefs. DGB’s massive size (6’6) and explosive speed make him an incredibly difficult guard for any defensive back. If he gets his off the field issues in order, he could be the steal of the draft at 18.
19) Cleveland Browns via Buffalo Bills* (9-7)- Danny Shelton, NT Washington
Shelton is very comparable to Jordan Phillips, in fact they are almost the same player. He eats blockers incredibly well, and is great in the run game. He explodes off the line and sheds blockers with his strong hands.
The difference between him and Phillips, in my opinion, is I think Phillips is dominant in the pass game as well, where as I feel Shelton has some work to do there. Shelton’s pad level is also occasionally too high.
*- Browns acquired pick in Sammy Watkins Trade
20) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)- Marcus Peters, CB Washington
Marcus Peters has off the field issues, but he also has a ton of tools. He’s got the size to man up taller receivers, the athleticism to guard the shifty wide outs, and he hawks the ball.
Peters needs to become more consistent, and could improve in press coverage, but the talent is there.
21) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)- Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE UCLA
Someone I have very high on my personal board is Owamgbe Odighizuwa. He does have an injury history, which could keep him out of the first round, but if a team is willing to overlook that, they could get a steal.
Odighizuwa has a great first step, he gaps the run well, and has the pass rushing ability equivalent of the top guys in this draft.
22) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)- Eli Harold, OLB Virginia
Still no Randy Gregory? That’s right. Still no Shane Ray? Right again.
Harold might have the most potential of the edge players in this draft. After watching Harold, I saw a number of chances for sacks where he failed to bring down the quarterback. Despite this, he still had a really productive season.
Harold has explosive speed and really good pass rushing moves. He’s also deceptively strong. If he becomes more consistent, watch out.
23) Detroit Lions (11-5)- Arik Armstead, DT Oregon- The talent is there for Arik Armstead, but he needs to become more consistent. Even though the production isn’t there, I think Armstead’s talent, along with his size and power, makes him a great replacement for Ndamukong Suh (assuming he walks in free agency).
24) Arizona Cardinals (11-5)- Shane Ray, OLB Missouri
Shane Ray is only here because I think Bud Dupree is better served as a 4-3 defensive end than a 3-4 outside linebacker. Ray is wildly inconsistent, particularly as a tackler and a run stopper. He does have great athleticism and a quick first step, but he needs to become more consistent.
25) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)- TJ Clemmings, OT Pittsburgh
I’m not sure Clemmings is the dominant tackle that other mock draft enthusiasts believe he is, but Clemmings is a behemoth in the run game. He’s strong and he does a great job of getting to the second level. I think a team that runs the ball frequently can make great use of him, and the Panthers do just that.
26) Baltimore Ravens (10-6)- Malcolm Brown, DT/NT Texas
Brown doesn’t have long arms, which could make fall on draft day. That doesn’t bother me though. I love his ability to pass rush and eat blockers. He’s strong as an ox too.
27) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)- Alvin “Bud” Dupree, DE Kentucky
Yep, you guessed it. Still no Randy Gregory.
Bud Dupree is actually one of my favorite players in the draft, despite him being in the back end of the first round. He uses his hands incredibly well as a pass rusher, and seems to have a high I.Q for a defensive lineman. Dupree gets really good leverage and he’s fast around the edge as well. There’s big upside here for Dallas with Bud Dupree.
28) Denver Broncos (12-4)- Gerrod Holliman, FS Louisville
Maybe the riskiest first round selection I have in this mock draft is Gerrod Holliman. Holliman is a ball hawk and showed the ability to read the quarterback very well at Louisville.
The negative is that Holliman is an inconsistent tackler and doesn’t put his, “hat in the ring,” versus the run.
With T.J Ward as his counterpart, I think the Broncos system sets Holliman up to succeed at the next level, making him worthy of the selection and the risk.
29) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)- Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA
Kendricks is incredibly high on my personal board, but team needs finds him falling to the Colts at the 29. I think he’s easily the best middle linebacker in the draft, because there’s nothing Kendricks doesn’t do well. He’s equally as good versus the run as he is in coverage. The Colts would be really happy with this selection.
30) Green Bay Packers (12-4)- Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
Williams looks a lot like Dwayne Allen to me. I don’t think he’ll ever be the game changer that Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski are, but his ability to block and his soft hands will make him a great weapon in a dynamic Packers offense, particularly in the red zone.
31) New England Patriots (12-4)- Derron Smith, FS Fresno State
Derron Smith needs to improve in his angles to ball carriers, but he is a terrific tackler, he plays the run well, and he is a ball hawk. Should the Patriots lose Devin McCourty to free agency, Bill Belichick will probably be all over Smith’s upside in round one.
32) Seattle Seahawks (12-4)- La’el Collins, OT LSU- Had this been two weeks ago, I would’ve told you that the Seahawks selection at tackle was Cedric Ogbuehi. However, after his injury, he may fall in the draft. This elevates La’el Collins to this position.
Collins is unpolished in pass protection, but he’s a good run blocker and has ideal size for the position. He also does a good job of getting to the second level.
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